Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essex Village, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:25PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 5:54 AM EST (10:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 3:02AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 440 Am Est Wed Nov 25 2020
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late this morning and afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 440 Am Est Wed Nov 25 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will lift to the north as high pressure east of new england strengthens and passes east of nova scotia. Another warm front will lift through this evening. Low pressure over the mid mississippi valley will move toward the great lakes tonight, then weaken and lift into southern ontario on thanksgiving day as weak secondary low pressure develops nearby and then passes through Thursday night. An trailing upper level disturbance will then approach and move across on Friday. A cold frontal passage will occur on Saturday, with the potential for deepening low pressure to impact the area for the beginning of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex Village, CT
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location: 41.35, -72.37     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 251003 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 503 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will lift to the north as high pressure east of New England strengthens and passes east of Nova Scotia. Another warm front will lift through this evening. Low pressure over the mid Mississippi valley will move toward the Great Lakes tonight, then weaken and lift into southern Ontario on Thanksgiving Day as weak secondary low pressure develops nearby and then passes through Thursday night. An trailing upper level disturbance will then approach and move across on Friday. A cold frontal passage will occur on Saturday, with the potential for deepening low pressure to impact the area for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Mid level overcast associated with the warm front is expanding north of the area, with some clearing working its way into interior northern NJ. This should lead to a partly sunny early morning from NYC metro west, than across the entire region later this morning.

Clouds should however increase again this afternoon mainly inland and across ern Long Island with the passage of another warm front, and ern sections may also see a few warm advection showers.

Temps this afternoon should top out in the upper 50s across the NYC metro area and Long Island, with lower/mid 50s to the north.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Precip chances increase tonight as low pressure moves out of the Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes. Precip with the second warm front should arrive by late evening into the overnight as an upper shortwave ridge passes east, and with deep layer SW flow and difluence aloft would expect rain to become moderate in intensity late tonight into much of Thanksgiving Day. Model soundings continue to show weak instability mainly in the afternoon ahead of a developing weak secondary low that should move across from late day into early evening, so have continued mention of isolated thunder.

Evening low temps tonight should range from the lower 50s in/around NYC to to the 40s elsewhere. Temps overnight should remain slowly rise with continued WAA and rain, reaching the mid 50s across NYC metro/Long Island, lower 50s along the CT coast, and 45-50 inland. With the area getting at least partly into the warm sector ahead of the weak secondary low, high temps on Thanksgiving Day should reach the lower 60s across NYC metro and Long Island, and the mid/upper 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Rain tapers off Thu night with passage of an upper trough, then a trailing shortwave trough will move across on Fri, maintaining clouds and producing a few showers. Temps on Fri should remain mild, with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s after morning lows from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

The wx looks mainly dry this weekend. There is a weak cold front late Sat that may be capable of producing a few shwrs or sprinkles.

A Pacific sys tracking from the 4 corners thru the srn Plains may link up with the nrn jet for the beginning of next week. Expecting an inside runner track with mainly rain, perhaps some mixed precip at the very onset well NW of NYC. This far out in time confidence in details remains low.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure slowly moves off the New England coast today with a warm front passing north early this morning. A second warm front passes to the north this evening.

VFR through this evening. Conditions then lower to MVFR toward 06Z Thursday as areas of light rain develop.

East and southeast winds will become south around 10 kt this morning. In the afternoon winds will be south to southwest around 10 kt, with potential gusts 15-20kt in the afternoon. Light southerly winds continue Wednesday night.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments expected through Wednesday. Amendments are possible Wednesday evening as conditions lower.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Late Wednesday night. MVFR with light rain. There is a chance of IFR, mainly along the coast, toward Thursday morning. Thursday. Rain with IFR likely. Friday-Sunday. Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Minimal SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters from mid morning through early evening as S-SW flow increases to 15-20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt, and seas building to 5-ft. As a result, have issued a small craft advisory for the ocean waters today through 03z tonight. Conditions fall back below sca levels tonight.

Conditions are expected to build back to SCA levels Thursday into Friday on the ocean, especially for seas due to persistent southerly flow. An advy may be needed late Sat on all waters as winds kick up behind a cold front.

Gales may be possible during the beginning of next week depending on the track, timing and intensity of a deepening low.

HYDROLOGY. Rainfall of 3/4 to 1 1/4 inch is expected for most of the area from Wednesday night into the evening hours on Thanksgiving Day. Highest amounts are expected over Long Island and southern CT. No hydrologic impacts expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JMC/BG NEAR TERM . BG SHORT TERM . BG LONG TERM . JMC AVIATION . BC/MET MARINE . BC/JMC HYDROLOGY . JMC/BG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi54 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 37°F 55°F1029.6 hPa (-1.0)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi29 min NE 7 G 9.9 38°F 1023.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi54 min E 1.9 G 5.1 41°F 49°F1029.9 hPa (-1.2)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 30 mi54 min 48°F 51°F1029.1 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT8 mi59 minE 410.00 miOvercast36°F23°F60%1029.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi58 minNE 1010.00 miOvercast37°F26°F65%1029.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Essex, Connecticut
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Essex
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:17 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:02 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EST     3.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:55 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:57 PM EST     2.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.611.62.22.73.13.12.92.621.30.70.40.71.11.72.22.62.72.62.31.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:00 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:09 AM EST     2.64 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:58 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:17 AM EST     -3.23 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:43 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:39 PM EST     2.44 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:22 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:36 PM EST     -2.95 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.4-1.5-0.21.32.32.62.41.4-0-1.3-2.5-3.2-3-2.3-1.10.41.72.32.41.80.5-0.8-1.9-2.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.