Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:39 AM

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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 405 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.Sun - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Mon night and Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. Tue night - E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight. Wed - E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Wed night through Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 405 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres south of new eng will drift further se through tonight. A warm front will move across southern new eng and the coastal waters tonight into Sunday. A cold front will drop south across the waters Monday and stall to the west through Tue. Low pres may track south of new eng Tue night into Wed, then high pres will follow for Thu.

FXUS61 KBOX 271944 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 344 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm but unsettled conditions for Sunday with a few chances for widely scattered showers through early Monday. Mainly dry and warm weather is on tap for Monday, except it will be considerably cooler along portions of the immediate coast. A backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday before it warms up again by late in the week. The greatest risk for a period of showers will be later Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

Mid-level ridging and warm front continue to advect from the west this evening. Mid-level shortwave parked to our east and very dry airmass pinned between advancing ridge and the shortwave has limited the eastward progression of the front this afternoon, resulting in nothing more than increased high cloud cover.

This "wall of dry air" will quickly fade eastward after 00Z this evening opening the door for warm frontal showers to push into the western half of our CWA between 02 and 03Z this evening. Will still see a bit of dry air eat away at the eastern edge of the precipitation shield, but widely scattered showers are likely through ~09Z, with the greatest chance for accumulating QPF from Worcester points west, with no more than a wetting passing shower expected for much of eastern MA and RI.

Shower activity is expected to come to an end by daybreak, but low to mid level clouds will develop thanks to a significant jump in moisture in the column. Given increasing cloud cover and dewpoints, overnight lows tonight will be much milder than the last several days, generally in the 40s, with no risk of frost across the area!

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Sunday will be bit of an odd day with widespread morning cloud cover giving way to above normal temperatures by mid afternoon. Mid-level ridge regenerates and broadens allowing mild temperatures aloft, up to 11C, but daytime heating will be slow through ~15Z before breaks in the low/mid level cloud deck begin to develop. Once some sunshine is able to break through the clouds, we will see temps warm quickly into the upper 60s to low and perhaps even mid 70s, warmest across the CT River Valley, by early afternoon. Humidity will be quite noticeable, as dewpoints climb into the 50s by late afternoon thanks to prolonged SW/S flow.

Convection will generate another round of afternoon showers across upstate NY, but with limited instability, up to 100J/kg MUCAPE just barely scraping the northwestern edge of MA, not expecting that thunderstorms will survive a trip over the Berkshires into our region. With that said, convective showers will weaken into widely scattered showers as they enter our western zones, highlighted well by the 12Z HRRR, primarily affecting western MA and CT from 20-00Z tomorrow.

Dewpoints continue to climb after sunset into the mid and perhaps upper 50s, which will lead to an unseasonably mild night. Increased moisture along with light SW flow will likely result in some pockets of fog along the south coast/Cape/Islands overnight, but flow across the interior takes a turn for the W/NW, which will limit the inland extent of fog formation. Another weak wave of energy dropping south into the region overnight may initiate a few scattered rain showers between midnight and sunrise.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Points...

* Warm on Mon with 70s/near 80...but much cooler immediate coast * Cooler Tue & especially Wed with 50s & 60s...coolest coast * Milder again by Thu & Fri with 70s away from the coast * Greatest risk for a period showers later Tue/Wed

Details...

Monday...

Upper level ridge axis just to our west will result in a generally dry/warm day away from the immediate coast. We will have to watch for a backdoor cold front...but thinking for Mon the primary impacts will be along the immediate coast. Temps immediately along the coast will be in the 60s and probably fall into the 50s across much of that region that afternoon with onshore flow
Meanwhile
the surface flow is rather weak inland from the immediate coast and 850T near +9C/10C. Good mixing should yield highs well into the 70s/near 80 with the warmest of those readings lower CT River Valley. That is our thinking right now...but it will be cooler if backdoor front moves faster than current indications.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

High pressure over eastern Canada will allow for the backdoor cold front to have crossed the region and result in cooler temps Tue and Wed. Highs will probably be held in the 50s along portions of the coast and in the 60s further across the interior. A shortwave trough also may bring a period of showers to the region sometime later Tue into Wed...but specific timing remains uncertain.

Thursday/Friday/Saturday...

Upper trough pushes east of the region late in the week...allowing for upper level ridging to build back into southern New England.
This should allow highs to reach well into the 70s to perhaps even near 80 away from the immediate coast and any sea breezes. The upper level ridging should result in generally dry weather Thu/Fri...but a shortwave/cold front may bring an increasing chance for showers sometime Sat.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z Update...

Through Tonight... High Confidence

South/southwest flow around 10kt across much of the interior with a seabreeze along the eastern MA coast through 22/23Z, south/southwest overnight. High clouds/VFR through at least 00Z with mid level clouds and showers developing across western terminals after 02/03Z. MVFR to localized IFR by sunrise with widespread shower activity, though mainly dry for eastern MA terminals.

Sunday... High confidence.

MVFR/IFR cigs early in the morning with sct'd -SHRA. Improving cigs after 16z, trending VFR some time after 18z/20z. SW winds 8-12 kt.

Sunday night... Moderate Confidence

Generally VFR away from the Cape and Islands where patchy fog will develop. Winds SW to start the night, transitioning to the W/NW across the interior by daybreak.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with seabreeze through 23Z. Mainly VFR overnight with scattered showers possible between 06/09Z. MVFR develops behind diminishing showers for the better part of the morning. VFR redeveloping Sunday afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR through 00Z. Scattered showers/MVFR developing after 02Z. Localized IFR possible Sunday morning. Winds SW near 10kt before becoming NW late Sunday night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday night... High confidence.

Generally tranquil boating conditions expected through Sunday outside of a few rounds of widely scattered showers overnight tonight and tomorrow evening. Onshore breeze across the eastern waters will subside quickly this evening giving way to primarily south/southwest winds for Sunday. Some patchy fog possible Sunday night.

Seas mainly 3ft or less all waters.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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