Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wakefield-Peacedale, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 6:54PM Thursday September 16, 2021 3:40 PM EDT (19:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:00PMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 313 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Saturday evening...
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers.
Tonight..E winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat and Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun through Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 313 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A coastal low near the benchmark may bring unsettled weather, building seas, and increased winds to the waters later Friday into Saturday. High pressure builds over the waters on Sunday into much of the upcoming workweek. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wakefield-Peacedale, RI
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location: 41.37, -71.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 161737 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 137 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front slides through the region this morning, then stalls along the south coast this afternoon, resulting in scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. A coastal low off the South Carolina coast, slowly tracks north and maintains clouds across southern New England into Friday, although very little if any additional showers. This offshore low will result in building waves and surf and a modest increase in northeast winds Friday night into Saturday night for coastal New England as it recurves toward Atlantic Canada. Thereafter, high pressure remains in control with milder than average temperatures and several days of dry weather through at least midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

1:30PM .

Patchy sunshine has become more widespread in western MA and CT than originally forecast, leading to a reduction in sky cover in the forecast across those areas. Due to the increased sunshine, temperatures across the CT River Valley have warmed nicely into the mid 70s. Elsewhere, showers have pretty much come to an end, with just a few lingering showers across Rhode Island and southeast MA. Little to no additional precipitation is expected through sundown north and east of the I-95 corridor with the exception of a spotty shower.

10 AM . The strongest storms have moved off the south coast and Cape Cod as of this writing. A few strong to marginally severe storms continue to impact our outer waters. Otherwise, a heavier batch of rain is moving through northern Rhode Island and will move northeast over southeastern Massachusetts before finally moving out to sea. A lull in showers is expected this morning, but spotty pop up showers may redevelop this afternoon. The greatest risk for showers remains along the South Coast, Cape and Islands, but a few inland areas could see a shower.

Breaks of sun look to develop across western MA and CT this morning with drier mid level air around 500 mb. However, high relative humidity below 500 mb should allow clouds to redevelop and sock southern New England in for most of the day. The clearing line just to our west will struggle to clear our area today.

Max temperatures for the day were bumped down slightly, especially across northeast and eastern Massachusetts as a northeast wind will keep things cool. Pockets of the Connecticut River Valley that are exposed to more breaks in the cloud deck will warm into the mid 70s.


515 AM update .

Line of storms have developed along and just behind the frontal boundary across eastern CT/RI and eastern MA. High shear (up to 50 kt of effective shear) and fairly steep mid level lapse rates supporting nocturnal convection early this morning. Synoptic scale lift from RRQ of upper level jet streak also enhancing updrafts. 00z HREF max updraft and updraft helocity indicates an upward trend this morning, as this line moves into a more unstable environment across RI and eastern MA, with mesoanalysis indicating 0-3 km CAPE up to 75 j/kg along the south coast of RI/MA. Thus, line of convection may intensify as it traverses eastward into axis of better instability. Satellite confirms this idea with cooling cloud tops and lightning activity on the upswing. Therefore, a few of the stronger storms may produce small hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Earlier discussion below.

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Cold front has cleared much of the region at 3 am, with boundary now lined up across eastern RI into southeast MA. RRQ of upper level jet enhancing synoptic scale lift and yielding rain shield in the post frontal airmass (Anafrontal) across CT into western-central MA. Marginal SB instability ahead of the front from southeast CT into RI and southeast MA, per latest SPC mesoanalysis. Along and behind the front, marginal elevated instability giving way to isolated thunder. This rain shield will continue to slide east this morning, with showers becoming more numerous across the entire region.

By afternoon, deep layer moisture and forcing for ascent exit offshore, and replaced with column drying from top down. While a drying trend develops this afternoon for much of the region, clouds will remain stubborn, thus not expecting much if any sunshine this afternoon. As cold front stalls or washes out along the south coast this afternoon, scattered showers may continue to fire along this boundary. Thus, showers may persist along/near the south coast this afternoon, including Cape Cod.

Post frontal airmass today is seasonably cool with highs in the 70s. Clouds and light onshore flow will accentuate the cooler conditions.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. 4 AM update .

Tonight .

Offshore ridge begins to build back into SNE with rising heights. Large scale subsidence will provide mainly dry weather. Although low level moisture will become trapped beneath subsidence inversion, so low clouds will be on the increase along with spotty light drizzle possible. Mild with lows in the 60s along with a light onshore wind. Friday .

Deep layer ridge axis remains across SNE, providing mainly dry weather. Although clouds will dominate with just partial sunshine possible at times. Can't rule out an isolated low top shower, but overall most of the day will remain dry. Clouds and light onshore flow will limit highs to the 70s, although there will be a humid feel to the airmass, with dew pts 65-70.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 4 AM update .

Highlights:

* Coastal low or possible tropical cyclone expected to pass to our southeast may bring building seas, possible rip currents and an increase in northeast winds over southeast New England and the waters Fri nite thru Sat nite. Impacts appear minimal but will depend on low track and strength. * Dry weather and milder than normal temperatures likely into next week with high pressure in control.

Details:

Coastal low or possible tropical cyclone (NHC prescribing a 70 percent chance of cyclone formation in 48 hrs as of the 200 AM Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook) will be the main focus for Friday night into Saturday afternoon/night. Most models now appear in good agreement in the cyclone passing just south of 40N/70W overnight Friday night and into the Maritimes thru Saturday. Storm track and intensity will dictate impacts but effects on our area still appear to be fairly minimal. Mainly building seas, rip currents/possible high surf and an increase in NE to N winds. Variable amounts of cloud cover (more east/southeast and less over the interior) with periods of off-and-on rain showers too, but the heaviest QPF looks to lie east of the cyclone center and over water. Cold frontal passage Saturday late-overnight into early Sunday but appears moisture starved with limited QPF.

Aside from the aforementioned coastal low, the main story for Sunday into much of the upcoming workweek is a large area of high pressure that settles over New England. Expecting several days of dry weather with strong diurnal temperature ranges: milder than normal high temperatures with strong radiational cooling leading to cooler nights. With several days of full sun and dry conditions, opted to raise highs over NBM by blending in some of the 90th percentile NBM highs and bias-corrected temps likely should do fairly well. Lowered dewpoints a bit during the peak heating hrs as well. But all in all, a pleasant stretch of weather looking ahead into early to mid next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

09Z update:

Today . high confidence.

Generally MVFR this afternoon, with VFR conditions mixing in across eastern terminals with NE flow off the ocean. Light showers linger across SE MA and the islands. A few breaks in the ceiling develop across western MA and CT before clouds fill back in during the afternoon and evening.

Tonight . high confidence.

Trending down to IFR/LIFR along with patchy fog. Mainly dry weather. Light ENE winds.

Friday . high confidence.

IFR/LIFR to begin the day, but cigs lifting to MVFR/VFR during the afternoon. Mainly dry weather with modest ENE winds.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence. NE flow combined with high humidity will encourage IFR and possibly LIFR ceilings to develop through Friday morning.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence. Breaks of sun and MVFR conditions during the early afternoon will transition to VFR overnight. Fog develops overnight.

Outlook /Friday night through Sunday/

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA, patchy FG.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, patchy BR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today . cold front enters the waters this morning, then stalls and washes out this afternoon. Showers and patchy fog will lower vsby to 3-5 miles at times. NW winds become NE this afternoon.

Tonight . ridge of high pressure offshore builds across the waters. Patchy dense fog will yield poor vsby at times. Light ENE winds.

Friday . ridge of high pressure remains across the waters, yielding light ENE winds and mainly dry weather.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera/Loconto NEAR TERM . Nocera/KS SHORT TERM . Nocera/KS LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Nocera/Loconto/KS MARINE . Nocera/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 15 mi52 min ENE 7 G 8 72°F 71°F1024.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 17 mi52 min NE 8 G 11 70°F 72°F1024.6 hPa
PRUR1 21 mi52 min 71°F 71°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 22 mi55 min E 6 74°F 1025 hPa68°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 22 mi52 min E 4.1 G 8.9 72°F 1025.2 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 26 mi52 min 70°F 73°F1024.2 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 27 mi40 min ENE 15 G 16 1025 hPa (+0.0)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi60 min E 13 G 14 71°F 1022.4 hPa56°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi52 min 72°F 72°F1024.5 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 30 mi52 min ENE 7 G 11 73°F 1024.7 hPa
FRXM3 30 mi52 min 71°F 71°F
PVDR1 30 mi52 min NNE 7 G 8 73°F 1024.7 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 31 mi52 min 71°F 72°F1023.6 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 31 mi52 min 74°F 72°F1024.8 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 31 mi52 min E 6 G 8 71°F 69°F1024.6 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 36 mi44 min 69°F3 ft
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 48 mi52 min 73°F 73°F1024.1 hPa

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI13 mi47 minE 610.00 miOvercast70°F67°F90%1023.9 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI13 mi44 minENE 910.00 miOvercast70°F66°F87%1024.1 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI18 mi2.8 hrsENE 910.00 miOvercast70°F64°F83%1024.7 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI19 mi47 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F66°F84%1023.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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S6CalmS4S6SW6S3SW3N105N7N7N7NE7E10E11E9E6
1 day ago5SE6SE5SE3S4SE3SE4SE4SE4S5S5S7S8S5S9S7SW7S8S11S13
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2 days ago543CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmN3N4NE6SE6SE8SE7SE8S8

Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:37 AM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:09 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.81.42.12.62.62.31.71.10.70.30.20.30.81.52.333.33.22.61.91.30.70.3

Tide / Current Tables for Narragansett Pier, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Narragansett Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:18 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:33 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:51 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.11.82.632.92.51.81.10.70.40.40.61.21.92.93.63.83.42.71.91.20.70.4

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