Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Jervis, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:29PM Friday December 4, 2020 6:25 PM EST (23:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:18PMMoonset 11:50AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 401 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
.gale warning in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 401 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Developing low pressure will rapidly develop into Saturday and move south and east of the area. The low gradually weakens in as it moves into the canadian maritimes Sunday into early next week. Meanwhile, in the local region, high pressure stays west of the region until midweek with the high pressure then moving across but with its center south of the region. The high pressure will slowly move eastward mid to late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Jervis, NY
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location: 41.37, -74.66     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 042110 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 410 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Developing low pressure will rapidly develop into Saturday and move to the south and east of the area. The low gradually weakens as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday into early next week. Meanwhile, in the local region, high pressure stays west of the region until midweek with the high pressure then moving across but with its center south of the region. The high pressure will slowly move eastward mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Dry air at the surface has prevented any showers produced from mid-level overrunning to reach the surface through much of the day. As the forcing for these showers increases overnight in the form of warm air advection and overrunning, a light steady rain will encompass much of the area tonight ahead of a vigorous mid-level shortwave that is approaching the area from the southwest.

Surface low pressure will develop this evening ahead of this shortwave and eject off the Delmarva. Once the surface low pressure moves over the Atlantic, strong upper level divergence from the left exit region of the southern jet and the right entrance region of the northern jet will allow this surface low pressure system to rapidly strengthen as the shortwave phases with the longwave trough off the coast. A shield of precipitation will develop on the northwest side of this rapidly developing low and with temperatures in the low 40s region-wide, this will fall in the form of rain, some of which may become moderate to heavy toward daybreak.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. By daybreak the low pressure is positioned south of Long Island and is moving to the northeast as it deepens. Winds will pick up from the northeast fairly quickly into the morning with gusts upwards of 30 mph inland and 40mph along the coastline. The main impacts of this coastal system will be in the form of a steady drenching rain and gusty winds. The greatest impact will be felt across eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut.

The system will be positioned to the east by midday allowing for the winds to back out of the north. This will allow for cold air to advect into the region. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact track of the low and especially the development of an expected frontogenetically forced band of heavy precipitation on the northwest side. Temperatures will drop steadily through the late morning and early afternoon.

There is a chance that part of central and eastern CT see a period of rain mixing with and possibly changing over to snow. The timing and placement of this will be dependent on where the deformation band on the northwest side of the system develops and it's intensity as the changeover to snow would be due to dynamic cooling of the column in heavy precipitation. This would mean a chance for a period of heavy snow (possibly on the order of 1 in/hr rates) with surface temperatures in the middle 30s, though it bears repeating that this changeover to snow and positioning if and when it happens remains uncertain.

Total precipitation amounts will range anywhere from 2-3 inches in eastern areas to less than an inch in areas to the northwest. THe NYC metro will see anywhere from 1-1.5 inches of rain.

Most of the precip ends by midday with drying conditions behind the departing low. Temperatures during the night will be in the upper 20s and 30s with a brisk NW wind.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Strong upper level jet will be staying south of the region Sunday through early next week. More of a zonal upper level jet moves in over the area for mid to late next week.

At the surface, low pressure will gradually fill in and weaken as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday into early next week. A trailing cold front extending southward into the Atlantic well east of the region will have another low develop along it Monday through Tuesday well out into the Atlantic.

The aforementioned synoptic features will keep high pressure west of the region Sunday into early next week with a persistent NW flow. This will be still gusty Sunday due to a steep pressure gradient but the pressure gradient will gradually weaken Sunday night into Monday. The pressure gradient briefly tightens again as the low well out into the Atlantic passes by Tuesday into Tuesday night. Relatively speaking, highest gusts forecast in the long term will be Sunday with gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range.

From mid to late next week, high pressure moves in from the west but its center will be in the Southeast US. A quick moving low approaches next Friday from the Great Lakes with some possible precipitation for next Friday night. Other than that, it is a dry forecast for the long term.

Regarding temperatures, they will be colder than normal Sunday through early next week with the persistent NW flow helping with cold air advection. The airmass will begin to moderate midweek with a return to near normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday next week.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low pressure approaches from the SW tonight and passes to the SE Saturday morning.

VFR for the rest of the day. Light showers into this evening. Flight categories lower to MVFR this evening, then eventually to IFR by around midnight or shortly thereafter with a steady rain.

SW winds around 10kt this afternoon become lighter this evening, then a brief period of light and variable winds overnight is followed by northerly winds quickly ramping up by daybreak Saturday. Winds back NW Saturday morning with gusts 30-35kt by around noon.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments expected through this afternoon. Amendments probable for timing of lowering flight categories this evening. Tempo MVFR ceilings could occur as early as around 00-01z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday PM. bcmg VFR. NW gusts 30-35kt. Saturday Night. VFR. NW gusts 20-30kt, highest evening. Sunday. VFR. NW wind G20-25 kt. Monday-Wednesday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Winds will be light tonight ahead of a developing low pressure system. A gale warning then goes into effect for all the waters beginning Saturday morning and continuing through Saturday night as low pressure deepens rapidly and tracks near Cape Cod. Conditions will ramp up very quickly during Saturday morning.

Wind gusts forecast to be well within SCA range for Sunday for all waters and most waters for Sunday night. Thereafter, wind gusts are mainly below SCA criteria except for ocean on Tuesday and Tuesday night with potential for 25 kt gusts. Wednesday forecast wind gusts are mainly below SCA criteria. In terms of seas, ocean will be elevated in SCA range of 5 to 7 feet mostly Sunday into Sunday night. Below SCA seas are forecast thereafter for early to mid next week.

HYDROLOGY. From NYC and points east 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected, with lesser amounts west tonight through Saturday evening. The heaviest rainfall is expected Saturday morning. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is possible. At this time minor flooding along quick responding streams and already swollen larger stem rivers is not expected, but if the storm tracks further west which would bring in higher rainfall amounts then minor flooding would be a possibility.

Dry conditions forecast Sunday through next Friday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Localized minor coastal flooding is possible with the Saturday morning/early afternoon high tide, primarily for portions of the south shore bays of Nassau and western Suffolk counties and the western Long Island Sound. The combination of low astronomical tides and fast storm movement will help limit the overall potential for coastal flooding.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353.

SYNOPSIS . JM/MW NEAR TERM . MW SHORT TERM . MW LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . JC MARINE . JM/MW HYDROLOGY . JM/MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 57 mi56 min 45°F 50°F1015.2 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 58 mi56 min 46°F 51°F1016.2 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 58 mi56 min SSW 13 G 18 46°F 1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Bergen Point West Reach, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sussex, Sussex Airport, NJ11 mi33 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast46°F36°F68%1013.8 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY23 mi32 minSW 1010.00 miOvercast47°F32°F56%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFWN

Wind History from FWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3W3SW3SW6SW5SW6SW5SW5SW5CalmCalmCalmSW4CalmSW6SW7SW10
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1 day agoS5SW4SW3CalmSW4SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW4SW6SW8
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SW8SW6S6----SW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:14 AM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:18 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:47 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:51 PM EST     2.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:17 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.22.42.32.11.60.90.50.30.40.81.72.52.932.92.62.11.40.70.30.20.30.7

Tide / Current Tables for West Point, Hudson River, New York
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West Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:48 AM EST     1.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:47 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:25 PM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:54 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.91.91.81.51.10.60.30.30.40.91.72.22.42.42.21.91.50.90.50.20.10.30.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.