Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vineyard Haven, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 7:35PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 12:23 PM EDT (16:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 10:34AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 1106 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
This afternoon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming e. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri through Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1106 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure will cross the waters today and bring fair weather today and most of tonight. A warm front moves north late tonight and Wednesday morning and draws warm very humid air over the waters. This will bring patchy fog as well as showers and scattered Thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. A cold front then sweeps across the waters sometime Thursday night into early Friday morning afterwhich dry weather and good vsby follows for Friday into the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vineyard Haven, MA
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location: 41.38, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201423
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1023 am edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds over southern new england today, bringing
warm but drier less humid air. A warm front moves north across
the region Wednesday. Very warm and humid conditions through mid
week with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front
will cross the region Thursday, then will slow down along the
south coast into Thursday night with lingering showers and a few
thunderstorms there. Once the front moves offshore Friday, dry
and less humid conditions will move in through early next week
with near or cooler than normal temperatures for late august.

Near term until 8 pm this evening
1030 am update...

wow, what an airmass change from yesterday ... Dew pts falling
into the mid to upper 50s at 10 am from hfd-orh-owd-bos and
points northward. Combination of northerly flow anticyclonic
flow around 1020 mb high over pa ny will continue to advect
these low dew pts southward but also as blyr deepens drier air
from aloft (pwats under an inch!) will mix to the surface. Thus
have lowered dew pts a bit more than guidance indicates based
on above reasoning. However along and near the coast afternoon
seabreezes will advect maritime air into the coastal plain
keeping dew pts in the 60s. Still a big improvement over
yesterday 70+ dew pts.

Otherwise previous forecast on track with highs in the mid to
upper 80s, about 5 degs warmer than climo.

Previous discussion...

high pressure builds over new england today. This brings
subsidence, drying, and lots of sunshine. Dew points across ny
state are in the mid 50s to low 60s, which will be much more
comfortable than the values experienced Monday.

Temperatures aloft of 16c-17c should support MAX sfc temps in
the mid to upper 80s, with a few warm spots touching 90. Light
wind will favor a developing sea breeze from late morning to
evening, and this should keep temperatures along the coast a few
degrees cooler.

Short term 8 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Tonight...

high pressure lingers over the region early tonight, then moves
offshore late night. This should keep the area dry for most of
the night. But there will be potential for showers late at
night, especially in western ma and western ct (including
hartford).

Precipitable water values climb above 1.5 inches after midnight,
signaling the return of deeper moisture and humidity. Expect
dew points to climb overnight into the mid and upper 60s. This
will keep min temperatures in the 60s, with some urban centers
around 70. The increasing humidity and light wind should allow
patchy fog late.

Wednesday...

shortwave moving east from the great lakes initially drives a
warm front north Wednesday, plunging southern new england back
into the warm sector. Pw values continue to climb, reaching 2
inches Wednesday afternoon. This returns us to the oppressive
airmass of Monday with dew points in the low 70s.

Rel humidity fields also show lots of moisture and suggest
cloudy skies. But cross sections show many breaks... Enough to
suggest temps warming into the 80s again Wednesday. Stability
parameters are impressive with SBCAPE 1500-2500 j kg, LI of -5
to -8, totals around 50. Winds at 850 mb are forecast at 25-30
kt while 500 mb winds are forecast around 35 kt. The 0-3km
helicity is forecast at 150 on the ECMWF and 220 on the gfs.

As such, the forecast continues to feature a warm humid day with
showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will have
the potential for gusty winds and local downpours. The favored
area for heavy rainfall is from hartford county up across
western and central ma, but all areas have potential for the
strong gusts and local downpours.

Mixing will be hampered a little by the additional clouds, but
should still favor MAX temps in the mid 80s.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Highlights...

* showers and scattered thunderstorms continue Wednesday night
through Thursday
* a cold front will slow its progress, keeping the threat for
showers and a few thunderstorms into early Friday morning
across southern areas
* large high pressure will slowly push across new england into
early next week, bringing dry and cool conditions
details...

Wednesday night through Thursday night... .

Low pressure crosses quebec, with its trailing cold front slowly
pushing eastward out of western ny pa Wed night, entering
western ma N central ct by around 12z thu. Will still see the
threat for showers scattered thunderstorms, with the best
chances through around 03z-04z, then with lack of heating
should see pops lower though can not completely rule out spotty
convection overnight. K indices linger in the lower-mid 30s
early Wed night, then will slowly fall back from nw-se.

On Thursday, however, will see a renewed chance for showers
thunderstorms as the main cold front pushes across. Noting
another spike in k indices, up to the lower 30s close to or just
ahead of the front, with capes increasing to 800-1000 j kg by
mid to late morning across NE ct ri SE mass. As winds shift to w
with the passage of the front, should see conditions dry out
across most areas expect the immediate S coast where showers may
linger.

Some model members signal another short wave in the flow along
the front Thu night, which could slow its progress and keep the
chance for showers from the boston-providence corridor S and e,
and enough instability could keep the threat for a few
thunderstorms along the S coast from 04z-06z before pushing
offshore.

Expect highs on Thu to run 5 to 10 degrees above normal, topping
off in the 80s across most areas. With dewpoints around 70
degrees across coastal areas, it will feel rather sultry. Temps
will begin to fall back to the mid-upper 50s well inland and
especially across the higher inland terrain Thu night, but will
linger in the 60s closer to the coast.

Friday through Sunday...

as the cutoff h5 low pres across quebec and its associated long
wave trough slowly crosses the region Friday, will see drying
conditions move in with w-nw winds. Large high pressure at the
surface and long wave ridging from ontario to the western great
lakes will slowly shift e. Expect the high to push from quebec
into northern new england this weekend into the start of the
work week.

With the cyclonic flow around the high, expect NW winds on
Friday to veer to N to NE during the weekend. This will bring
close to or below normal temperatures especially on Sunday, with
forecasted highs only in the 70s.

Aviation 14z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

14z update ...

vfr and dry weather prevail. Light northerly winds becoming
light and variable inland but onshore seabreezes for the coastal
plain.

================================================================
today...

vfr. Dry conditions. Late morning and afternoon seabreezes near
the coast.

Tonight...

vfr. Mainly dry through the night. Cloud bases lower and
thicken after midnight. May see spotty showers move into
portions of the ct valley around or after 09z.

Wednesday...

showers and scattered thunderstorms, with local downpours.

Ceilings bases atVFR most of the day, but lowering to between
1000 and 3000 feet in any thunderstorms. Vsbys mostly
unrestricted, but lowering to 1 to 3 nm in thunderstorms.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Sea breeze develops
around 10 am 14z, lingers until the evening. Initially from ne,
turning from SE later in the afternoon.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ... Moderate confidence
through Thursday night, then high confidence.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
shra, chance tsra.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra,
chance tsra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday:VFR.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Saturday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

1030 am update...

this afternoon ...

ideal late summer boating weather with 1020 mb high pres over
ny pa providing light nnw flow across the new england waters.

Winds become light and variable this afternoon and onshore near
the coast with afternoon seabreezes. Dry less humid airmass
provides vsby to the horizon.

==================================================================
tonight...

tranquil dry weather through midnight, then lowering vsby
toward daybreak in fog and chance of showers and thunderstorms
around daybreak.

Wednesday...

south winds gusting to 20 kt at times. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Poor visibility in fog and heavier downpours.

Strong wind gusts possible in thunderstorms.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of
thunderstorms.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of
thunderstorms.

Friday through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Climate
Boston set a high temperature record Tuesday, reaching 95
degrees. Old record was 92 degrees.

Boston tied a high minimum temperature record Tuesday, reaching
74 degrees.

Hartford windsor locks tied a high temperature record Tuesday,
reaching 95 degrees.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Wtb nocera evt
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Wtb nocera evt
marine... Wtb evt
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 14 mi44 min N 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 64°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi54 min 81°F 74°F1018.4 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi99 min NW 1.9 81°F 1018 hPa65°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 22 mi54 min NNW 5.1 G 8.9 79°F 76°F1018.4 hPa
44090 33 mi24 min 71°F1 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi54 min 79°F 79°F1019 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi54 min NW 5.1 G 7 81°F 1018.6 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi54 min 80°F 61°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi54 min 76°F3 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi54 min N 6 G 8 79°F 66°F1018.7 hPa
PRUR1 46 mi54 min 80°F 62°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi99 min N 4.1 82°F 1019 hPa64°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi54 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 81°F 1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA7 mi91 minNW 810.00 miFair82°F62°F51%1018 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA19 mi88 minN 610.00 miFair81°F64°F58%1018.3 hPa
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA24 mi91 minNNW 610.00 miFair80°F66°F64%1018.1 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi88 minN 1110.00 miFair81°F59°F47%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMVY

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11
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S12SW13--S13SW9SW7SW6W6SW7----------W3NW5CalmW3NW5NW9NW5NW84
1 day agoS6S13S8SW7S8SW8S8S6S8SW4SW5SW7S7--S9----W3SW5SW4SW7S9--SW11
2 days agoE6E7SE9SE9--NE8E4E4E4E4E5E5CalmCalmCalm--CalmSW3CalmW4----4S10

Tide / Current Tables for Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Edgartown
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Tue -- 03:54 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:33 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:18 PM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:54 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.61.81.91.81.40.90.40.10.10.40.81.11.41.71.91.81.51.10.60.20.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:19 AM EDT     -0.07 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:55 AM EDT     -3.68 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:00 AM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:05 PM EDT     3.27 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:52 PM EDT     -0.10 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:19 PM EDT     -3.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     0.15 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.81.6-2.2-3.4-3.7-3.3-2.3-0.122.73.13.33.12.4-0.9-2.8-3.4-3.3-2.5-11.82.42.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.