Wednesday, August5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Vineyard Haven, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 7:55PM Wednesday August 5, 2020 9:26 AM EDT (13:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:25PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 716 Am Edt Wed Aug 5 2020
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night through Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Wed Aug 5 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Isaias will be quickly be moving away from the region overnight. High pressure will approach from the west, and across the region by Thursday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vineyard Haven, MA
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location: 41.38, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 051118 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 718 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front moves through Southern New England late in the day, and may generate isolated showers. High pressure then builds over the region tonight and Thursday with very warm and drier air. While generally dry and seasonable Thursday night into Saturday, cloudy and unsettled conditions for the South Coast of MA and RI and Cape Cod. Warm and dry weather for the rest of weekend. Our weather then turns very warm and increasingly muggy into next week, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 7 AM Update:

No significant changes needed to the going forecast with this update. Upper shortwave disturbance aloft passing to our northwest with its main effect being a modest increase in coverage of cumulus. Possibility that a few could pop a shower or two but it's a fairly remote possibility and many will stay dry today. Turning quite warm today and given that folks may head to the beach, a high surf advisory is in effect for south- facing beaches due to sea/swell from Isaias leading to a higher risk of rip current and hazardous surf conditions. Highs look on track in the 80s to lower 90s with generally decreasing humidity levels.

Previous discussion .

Upper low over the Great Lakes will swing a shortwave across Srn New England today. The associated upper jet will place its right entrance region overhead, providing some lift that could generate a few showers. PW values are around 2 inches along the South Coast, but diminishing farther north and west. Favorable CAPE is limited to the South Coast. With limited moisture and instability, confidence in precip is limited. Will continue to forecast widely scattered showers with no mention of thunder.

Mixing is forecast to reach 800-mb, where temperatures will be 11-13C. These temperatures will support surface max temps of 85 to 90. Dew points in the 60s, so the humidity will be noticeable but much more comfortable than yesterday.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Tonight .

The weak cold front moves offshore, and surface winds turn out of the northwest. Dew points will continue to fall to more comfortable levels, reaching the mid 50s to mid 60s. Expect min sfc temps in the upper 50s and 60s, possibly mid 50s in extreme northwest MA.

Thursday .

High pressure over the region will bring dry weather and continued comfortable humidity. Mixing to 850-mb will tap temperatures of 14-15C, supporting max sfc temps in the mid 80s except a little cooler on the South Coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Highlights .

* Unsettled showers South Coast, Cape and Islands Thurs nite thru Sat, generally dry for remainder of SNE. Seasonable temps.

* Warm and dry weather for the rest of the weekend.

* Increasing heat and humidity early next week with rising heat indices. Daily thunder chances, better t-storm coverage Tues-Wed.

Details .

Thursday Night into Saturday:

SW flow aloft regime prevails in mid-levels through this period, established by an upstream mid-level trough which moves from the Great Lakes into the Northeast states late in the week into Sat. While a broad surface ridge associated with dry weather and low humidity levels is expected to extend across a part of interior New England, the primary surface feature is a SW-NE oriented stationary boundary from the mid-Atlantic states into our far southern offshore waters. Weak large-scale ascent acting on the stalled boundary appears to be enough across most of the 00z NWP suite to permit a weak surface wave to develop on the boundary near the DE/NJ coast early Fri. As this feature ripples NE along the boundary, it shifts its effective position slightly northward as a warm front.

Main source of uncertainty in this period is timing when and how far north will the stationary feature return as a warm front, spreading clouds and related showers into a part of Southern New England. In general, the ECMWF/Canadian GEM keep the feature suppressed to the south enough to allow for little if any measurable precip. The GFS and the SREF on the other hand keep much of this period wet/unsettled, bringing showers to the South Coast/Cape by Thurs nite and spreading the precip shield northward across much of Southern New England thru Fri/Sat. Ensemble means also offer no preferred outcome and generally lend support to their respective deterministic model solution.

Can't dismiss a wetter solution yet, but am thinking given the weaker surface low shown across most models that it probably won't be enough to really produce as much northward advance to the boundary/precip as depicted in the wetter guidance. Thus following along the lines of the ECMWF/GEM. Will thus keep most of MA, northern CT into northern RI generally dry, and confine more clouds with Chance-ish PoPs to the MA/RI South Coast, Cape and adjacent waters. That said, doesn't look to be a washout by any stretch but enough to potentially ruin any beach days.

With more clouds/showers south than north, temperatures should have more of a diurnal range to them (e.g. warmer highs/cooler lows) as one moves north from the South Coast/Cape. More clouds and rains to the south will allow for narrower diurnal ranges in SE MA and coastal RI. Overall temps should be fairly seasonable, though highs may run cooler than average towards the South Coast/Cape.

Saturday Night into Sunday Night:

Much nicer stretch of weather for the rest of the weekend with high pressure building in from the Great Lakes Saturday night, then moving offshore Southern New England late Sunday into Sunday night. Look for dry conditions with plenty of sun, and should be great for any plans outdoors. 850 mb temps initially around the mid teens (+13 to +15C) with warm advection on Sunday rise to the upper teens Sunday (+16 to +18C). Should see highs in the mid to upper 80s, though a few sites in the CT Valley and eastern MA could reach 90 given WSW downsloping. Will also start to see a rise in humidity levels come Sunday but nothing too humid or oppressive.

Monday through Wednesday:

Pattern aloft turns zonal across CONUS, allowing for significant heat (upper teens to low-20s Celsius 850 mb air) to advect eastward into Southern New England. Humidity levels will rise to very humid to oppressive levels especially by Tuesday, so the main story in this period will be increasing heat and humidity. With high temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints looking to rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s, heat indices approaching Advisory levels appear possible in parts of this period.

Given the heat and humidity, daily thunder chances should then resume. Difficult at this time range to pinpoint how strong they may be and/or on what days. Do note the GFS advecting in some steeper mid-level lapse rates that could really boost instability but appears flow aloft is very weak for most of the period. GFS/ECMWF differ on timing a cold front through which would offer greater convective coverage, but that may be sometime either Wednesday (ECMWF) or Thursday (GFS). Will follow blended PoP guidance this period.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

VFR all terminals with bases around 050. Outside shot at showers but too remote a possibility to mention in the TAFs. Daytime mixing will also draw southwest wind gusts of 20 kt down from aloft.

Tonight . High confidence.

VFR. Possible IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys in fog and low clouds moving off the ocean across ACK and possibly Cape Cod.

Thursday . High confidence.

VFR. Light northwest wind.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in the TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in the TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday through Sunday: VFR.

MARINE. Today .

Southwest winds with gusts to 20 kt. Lingering rough seas on the outer waters and RI/Block Island Sounds, with 10-12 feet. Expect these seas to diminish this afternoon.

Tonight .

Southwest winds shift from the northwest by morning, as a weak cold front moves across the waters. Seas will continue to diminish, dropping below 5 feet overnight.

Thursday .

High pressure builds over the waters. Light northwest winds become variable. Seas remain less than 5 feet.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-023- 024. RI . High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Loconto NEAR TERM . WTB/Loconto SHORT TERM . WTB LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . WTB/Loconto MARINE . WTB/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 14 mi47 min SW 14 G 18 76°F1015.5 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi57 min 75°F 74°F1016.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi102 min S 2.9 77°F 1016 hPa74°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 22 mi57 min SSW 7 G 14 78°F 78°F1016.5 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi87 min SW 14 G 16 1016.6 hPa (+1.6)
44090 33 mi60 min 60°F1 ft
CHTM3 36 mi69 min SSW 8 G 14 78°F 1015.6 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi57 min 75°F 79°F1016.1 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi57 min SW 8 G 9.9 74°F 1015.9 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi57 min 75°F 72°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi61 min 71°F7 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi57 min SSW 8 G 11 71°F 65°F1016.1 hPa
PRUR1 46 mi57 min 73°F 73°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi102 min WSW 2.9 73°F 1016 hPa71°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi57 min WSW 4.1 G 6 75°F 1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA7 mi34 minSSW 1010.00 miOvercast75°F71°F88%1016.2 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA19 mi42 minSSW 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy77°F71°F83%1016.3 hPa
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA24 mi34 minSSW 1210.00 miFair77°F71°F82%1016.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi31 minSSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F73°F85%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMVY

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Edgartown
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:43 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:31 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:18 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:41 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.12.221.50.90.3-0-0.10.20.50.91.31.71.91.91.61.10.50.20.10.30.61

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:07 AM EDT     -0.15 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:40 AM EDT     -3.81 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     0.13 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:06 AM EDT     3.89 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:48 PM EDT     -0.04 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:08 PM EDT     -3.49 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     0.09 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:20 PM EDT     3.54 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.1-2.7-3.7-3.8-3.4-2.7-1.61.62.83.63.93.72.7-1.2-3-3.5-3.3-2.7-1.80.82.33.13.53.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.