Monday, March1, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pawcatuck, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 5:39PM Monday March 1, 2021 7:44 PM EST (00:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:34PMMoonset 8:55AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 717 Pm Est Mon Mar 1 2021
.storm warning in effect until 7 am est Tuesday...
.freezing spray advisory in effect from midnight est tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 30 to 35 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Light freezing spray.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night and Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat and Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Pm Est Mon Mar 1 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Rain continues across the waters into Monday afternoon. A strong cold front brings a period of scattered snow showers and light freezing spray tonight into Tue. Another cold front crosses the water Thu. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawcatuck, CT
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location: 41.38, -71.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 020004 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 704 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

SYNOPSIS. In the wake of an Arctic cold front widely scattered snow showers are possible late this evening and overnight. Winds ramp up prompting a Wind Advisory for all of southern New England through early Tuesday afternoon. Additionally, temperatures drop well below normal and are accompanied by sub-zero wind chills for Tuesday morning. A brief warmup expected on Wednesday with above normal temperatures, then a return to somewhat colder weather late in the week through the weekend, but mainly dry condition should prevail.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. 7 PM update .

Skies have cleared across much of SNE, but strato-cu ahead of mid level shortwave moving into western MA. Arctic front lies across central VT/NH and will push south across SNE around 03-06z. Moisture will be a limiting factor for robust squalls as dewpoints have already dropped into the teens. Best chance for a few snow showers or brief squalls with the front will be across northern MA where soundings show brief moistening of the snow growth region. Any snow showers will tend to dissipate as they approach the coast.

Wind will be the main issue tonight as strong cold advection will promote excellent mixing of deep and well mixed boundary layer. Soundings support gusts 50-55 mph with potential for a few gusts to 60 over higher terrain and Cape/Islands.

Arctic air pours into the region tonight as 850 mb temps fall to -20 to -24C. Tue morning lows will generally range from 10-15F, with single numbers over higher terrain and upper teens outer Cape/Islands. Wind chills early Tue morning will bottom out between zero and 10 below and as low and 15-20 below over the Berkshires and Worcester Hills.

Previous discussion .

High-res guidance brings widely scattered snow showers into northern Massachusetts between 03z-06z. The signal for snow squall parameter isn't as robust, thus we aren't anticipating any squall-like conditions. HRRR and NAM 3KM show streamers of snow moving across areas north of the Mass Pike and fizzle out as they shift towards the coast. Since these snow showers will be widely scattered we don't anticipate any significant issues on the roadways - outside of a brief period of reduced visibility.

On the backside of this cold front our wind direction veers from the south to the northwest. Aloft, a 700mb trough moves across southern New England late this evening through early Tuesday morning. Looking at BUFKIT soundings we should be able to mix down rather gusty winds to the surface - up to 50 MPH away from the coast and near 60 MPH over the waters. Wind Advisories still stand for all of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island through Tuesday afternoon. It's worth to mention areas across the higher terrain of Worcester County, eastern slopes of the Berkshires, out the outer most areas of the Cape could see isolated wind gusts as high as 60 MPH. Over the water we do anticipate winds to gust between 60 and 65 MPH - because of this we did replace our Gale Warnings with Storm Warnings - the only exceptions are Narragansett Bay and Boston Harbor.

Finally, it's a rather cold night with temperatures ranging from the upper teens at the coast to near zero across the interior. Our blustery northwest wind is driving down our feels like temperatures to zero at the coast and -20F across the interior. Because of this we did extend our Wind Chill Advisory to now include all of Franklin County, northern Worcester County, and northern Middlesex Counties.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Tuesday: An area of weakening high pressures will slide across the southern Ohio Valley, this pushes a surface low out into the Saint Lawrence Gulf. Winds will ease during the first half of the day though it will remain rather chilly with highs in the 20s to lower 30s at the coast.

Tuesday Night: The weakening high pressure slides south and lowering pressure to the north, that will result in increasing clouds overnight. Winds aloft will shift from NW to SW and help usher in slightly warmer temperatures. This coupled with the cloud cover should yield overnight lows in the upper teens across the interior to the low 30s at the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Highlights .

* Mild and dry Wed

* Turning colder for the end of the week into the weekend with below normal temps

* Mainly dry through the period

Overview .

Developing -AO/-NAO pattern through the end of the week and into the weekend as Greenland block sets up. Piece of TPV will locked in across eastern Canada with troughiness over the NE and New Eng. Result will be a trend toward colder temps averaging below normal from Thu through the weekend with Fri/Sat likely the coldest days of the period. This will be preceded by a relatively mild day on Wed with above normal temps.

Precip wise, it looks like a rather quiet period with mainly dry conditions right through the weekend and into early next week. There are multiple shortwaves rotating around the vortex in eastern Canada but moisture is limited and outside of a few brief flurries/snow showers, expect mainly dry conditions. Weekend ocean storm is expected to pass well SE of New Eng and not pose a risk.

There is decreasing forecast confidence as we head toward the end of the weekend into early next week on how quickly the pattern breaks down which impacts temp forecast. GFS is quicker than ECMWF lifting out the trough and building the SE ridge which brings milder temps to the region Sun/Mon. We leaned toward slower ECMWF solution as GFS typically has a progressive bias, so we have temps remaining below normal. It does appear pattern change eventually takes place during next week with a transition to +AO/+NAO/-PNA and milder weather.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . High confidence.

VFR with strong NW gusts to 45 kts. There may be a few 50 kt gusts over higher terrain and Cape/Islands per GFS/NAM BUFKIT soundings. Isolated brief MVFR/IFR snow showers/squalls passing through 03-06z, mainly north of the Mass Pike.

Tuesday . High confidence.

VFR with gusty WNW to NW winds to start. Expecting gusts of 30-45 kts to start. Winds and gusts diminishing during the afternoon. Should see gusts falling to 15-30 kts.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in trends. Expect a period of IFR/LIFR into the AM push, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in trends. Expect a period of IFR/LIFR into the AM push, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. We've upgraded all our waters to Storm Warnings for gusts between 60 and 65 MPH, the only exception are Narragansett Bay and Boston Harbor where Gale Warnings are still in effect. We expect these gusty winds to persist through early Tuesday afternoon. On top of this have widespread moderate freezing spray still expected with an arctic airmass moving in. The Freezing Spray Advisory previously issued into for tonight into Tuesday morning still looks good.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night through Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing spray.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA . Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>006-008>021- 026. Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>004-008-009-026. Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ007-022>024. RI . Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001>008. MARINE . Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ232>234. Freezing Spray Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ231>237-250-251-254>256. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230. Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ231-251. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ236. Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ235-237. Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254. Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/Gaucher NEAR TERM . KJC/Gaucher SHORT TERM . Gaucher LONG TERM . KJC AVIATION . KJC/Gaucher MARINE . KJC/Gaucher


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 13 mi63 min 38°F 1005.2 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi50 min NW 23 G 28 39°F 1002.5 hPa21°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi57 min 41°F 40°F1004.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 27 mi57 min WNW 15 G 21 38°F 39°F1004.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 29 mi57 min NW 18 G 27 38°F 38°F1004 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi120 min NW 12 40°F 1002 hPa26°F
PRUR1 32 mi57 min 38°F 20°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi57 min NW 11 G 22 37°F 1004.6 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 35 mi57 min WSW 22 G 38 37°F 39°F1003.4 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi57 min WNW 25 G 31 38°F 1003.9 hPa18°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi63 min NNW 12 G 30 38°F 38°F1003.7 hPa
FRXM3 41 mi57 min 39°F 23°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi57 min 38°F 40°F1004.4 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi57 min WNW 29 G 39 39°F 1003.2 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 43 mi45 min WNW 43 G 47 1003.6 hPa (+5.2)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 47 mi49 min 40°F6 ft
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 49 mi45 min WNW 25 G 33 42°F 41°F1005.5 hPa (+3.7)28°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI3 mi52 minNW 12 G 2610.00 miFair36°F21°F55%1004.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT12 mi49 minNW 17 G 2910.00 miA Few Clouds37°F22°F54%1004.9 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI20 mi49 minNNW 19 G 2710.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy38°F25°F60%1004.6 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi51 minNNW 16 G 26 mi40°F29°F65%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW4W4SW3SW4CalmNW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3N3NE4SE5E6SE7SE8E10
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SW11SW4SW7--

Tide / Current Tables for Westerly, Pawcatuck River, Rhode Island
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Westerly
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Mon -- 04:55 AM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:54 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:19 AM EST     3.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:44 PM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.60.90.3-0.2-0.400.91.92.632.92.51.81.10.5-0-0.3-0.20.61.62.533.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Mon -- 12:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:37 AM EST     -3.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:55 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:39 AM EST     3.48 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:50 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:57 PM EST     -3.77 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:03 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:01 PM EST     3.60 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8-0.9-2.5-3.6-3.7-2.9-1.30.42.13.33.42.71.3-0.3-2-3.3-3.8-3.2-1.8-0.11.633.63.1

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