Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chester Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:22PM Thursday December 12, 2019 5:08 PM EST (22:08 UTC) Moonrise 5:56PMMoonset 8:22AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 400 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow and rain in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 400 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves east tonight. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday into Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for late Monday night into much of Tuesday. High pressure then builds in Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester Center, CT
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location: 41.45, -72.46     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 122112 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 412 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure moves east tonight. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday into Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for late Monday night into much of Tuesday. High pressure then builds in Wednesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Upper level trough begins to take shape east of the Rockies tonight, with surface high moving east of the area.

High clouds move in this evening, but not enough to prevent temperatures to fall into the 20s as winds remain light. As winds begin to pick up ever so slightly from the SE, increasing low level moisture and thus additional clouds will result in temperatures to hold steady, then rise toward morning.

Do not expect any precipitation tonight, just chilly temps in the evening rising overnight, and increasing clouds.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/. Digging upper trough will result in sfc low development over the SE states. The trough will then steer this low up the mid Atlantic Friday night, passing somewhere nearby on Saturday. A coastal front also develops, approaches Friday night, and passes across the coastal plain Saturday.

With increasing low level moisture, and weak isentropic and topography driven lift, light rain or drizzle should develop over parts of the area Friday morning, and will become more widespread later in the day as overall lift increases with the approaching trough, and sfc front. Careful analysis of all available data, including high resolution model data shows chilly temps rising through the day, with some interior locations in the lower Hudson Valley, and interior southern CT possibly cold enough for some fzdz in the morning. However, all of this guidance shows warming sfc temps above freezing, even where some damming occurs across the CT Valley Friday afternoon. Once the bulk of the rain moves in late day/Friday night, all rain is expected. The widespread rain will taper off and lower in coverage during the day Saturday as best lift moves northeast.

Temps warm through the day Friday, and remain mild or even rise more Friday night as the front approaches.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/.

To begin the long term period the upper level trough axis will swing through with good global model consensus with the time around 6z Sunday. Look for more distinct clearing to take place around or just after 6z from west to east across the region as cold and dry advection takes places. With a colder dome aloft approaching into late Saturday night and especially on Sunday look for lapse rates to steepen. Mixing will increase, but not sure how much above 5 kft based on BUFKIT forecast soundings. It may not matter all that much as even 2 to 3 kft winds will be rather strong out of the west and northwest. So widespread 30 to 35 kt gusts seem likely, especially towards Sunday morning. Therefore Sunday will feature gusty winds with temperatures slightly cooler, but still actually above normal. The more noticeable cold air will arrive into Monday morning as temperatures return closer to normal levels and will actually most likely be a touch below normal into Monday.

The next system will then quickly approach for Monday evening and Monday night and impact the region through most of Tuesday. Another fairly quick moving shortwave in the Pacific branch of the jet stream will approach from the west. The global guidance has differences basically with how much ridging gets into the area from the SW Atlantic with the GFS based guidance more aggressive with this ridging along and just off the eastern seaboard. The ECWMF and GEM are less amplified with the downstream ridging which will factor into p-type for the beginning of this next system. There may be enough evaporating cooling at the onset to even have the coast begin briefly as mostly snow. A warm tongue will rush in quickly at the mid levels and even at the surface later Monday night into Tuesday morning. So went with a general snow to mix, or snow to mix to rain north and west, with a brief snow or snow rain mix changing to rain for the city and the coast. NW sections may even end as some snow showers as the system pulls away late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. It does not look like a major event, but with ptype issues for at least northwestern sections this system will have to watched over subsequent forecast cycles because a track further south and east would introduce more mixed ptype for a longer period of time further south and east. For now the feeling is that at least enough warming will take place, even for most northwestern sections for the majority of the precip to be in the liquid form.

Clearing may then be a bit slow during Tuesday night, with more in the way of clearing after the upper level trough axis swings through during the day on Wednesday. High pressure will begin to build in later Wednesday and into the latter part of the week. This period will feature dry and colder weather. The source region for high pressure later next week will be from a colder source region, therefore temperatures during late next week will be noticeably colder as temperatures fall below normal.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure moves offshore tonight into Friday. Low pressure approaches late Friday into Friday night.

VFR through much of tonight with MVFR ceilings developing late tonight into Friday with chances of rain increasing during the day Friday. Note if precip starts early enough, there could be some light freezing rain or drizzle towards KHPN and KSWF but probabilities for this are too low so this is not in TAFs.

Light and variable winds eventually become more E-SE tonight into Friday around 5-6 kts.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday and Friday night. MVFR or lower. Rain developing, especially Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain, becoming scattered showers late at night. LLWS possible. Sunday. Generally VFR. West winds 10-15kt gusts 20-30kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR. Some west wind gusts to 20 kt Sunday night. Monday night-Tuesday. MVFR to IFR possible. Chance of snow for inland terminals changing to wintry mix and then to rain. Chance of mainly rain for coastal terminals.

MARINE. Winds turn to the SE tonight as high pressure moves east. The pressure gradient tightens as the low moves east and low pressure approaches Friday and Friday night. SCA winds are possible later Friday across the ocean waters, with gusty easterly winds Friday night ahead of a coastal front and low pressure. Will issue SCA for only the ocean waters at this time for late Friday and through Friday night. Seas build to 5 ft or greater as well during this time frame. Rough seas continue Saturday as the low and front pass north.

Small craft conditions will develop for the non-ocean coastal waters during Saturday night with seas already elevated out on the ocean. Small Craft conditions are expected across all the waters by late Saturday night, with the potential for gale force gusts developing out on the ocean waters, especially the eastern coastal waters. The strengthening winds will be due to an intensifying pressure gradient on the back side of departing low pressure and building high pressure off to the west. On Sunday gale force gusts are looking more likely for all of the ocean waters, with small craft conditions for the remaining coastal waters. The winds will then diminish into Sunday night along with high seas out on the ocean starting to come down. By Monday seas and winds should diminish enough that sub SCA conditions will prevail. By late Monday night seas will begin to build out on the ocean waters, with small craft conditions likely out on the ocean with small craft wind gusts. Seas will climb to high levels out on the ocean, especially for the eastern ocean waters late Monday night into Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY. 1.00 to 1.50 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from late Friday through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event, especially Friday night when the bulk of the rain falls.

No hydrologic impacts in the long term period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning (departures of 1 to 2 ft are needed to reach minor benchmarks). This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence remains rather low on details due to possible shifts in storm track and/or timing.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JE/PW NEAR TERM . PW SHORT TERM . PW LONG TERM . JE AVIATION . JM MARINE . JE/PW HYDROLOGY . JE/PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 21 mi50 min SSW 1 G 1.9 32°F 41°F1039.2 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 23 mi38 min Calm G 1 32°F 1026.4 hPa15°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 26 mi50 min S 5.1 G 5.1 33°F 42°F1038.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 38 mi56 min 32°F 44°F1039.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi56 min SW 1 G 4.1 32°F 44°F1038.9 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT5 mi93 minN 010.00 miFair30°F14°F51%1038.6 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT20 mi2.3 hrsN 010.00 miFair32°F12°F43%1039.2 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT22 mi2.3 hrsE 310.00 miFair31°F14°F49%1039.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi2.2 hrsN 010.00 miFair32°F12°F45%1039.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for East Haddam, Connecticut
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East Haddam
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 05:54 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:36 AM EST     3.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:42 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.31.81.20.80.40.20.61.42.43.23.63.73.32.61.810.3-0.1-0.30.21.11.92.5

Tide / Current Tables for Higganum Creek, Connecticut
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Higganum Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:26 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:22 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:49 AM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:14 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.21.81.30.80.50.20.30.91.82.73.23.33.12.51.81.20.60.1-0.2-0.10.61.52.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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