Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bliss Corner, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:56PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 9:54 AM EST (14:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 10:36PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ235 Rhode Island Sound- 716 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun and Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure nudges into the region from quebec province as a disturbance slides offshore. High pressure builds into new england Thursday into Friday. Low pressure passing southeast of nantucket Saturday and over the canadian maritimes on Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bliss Corner, MA
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location: 41.46, -71.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 291221 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 721 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. Clouds at daybreak give way to sunshine later this morning and afternoon. Chilly temperatures into Thursday before moderating on Friday as high pressure builds in. Low pressure tracking offshore Saturday may bring a period of snow and/or rain especially across southeast Massachusetts. Dry but blustery weather follows Sunday behind the departing ocean storm. Latest trends suggest dry and seasonable weather Monday followed by a risk for precipitation Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

715 AM update . only change was to capture back edge of cloud shield rapidly moving north to south across Massachusetts. Otherwise previous forecast on track. Earlier discussion below.

====================================================================

Main concerns in the near term are ocean effect snow showers tapering off across Cape Cod this morning and cloud cover gradually diminishing.

A shortwave trough will slowly lift from just south of southern New England offshore by this afternoon. Behind the trough, a ridge axis will build into the central Great Lakes extending northward to western Quebec. At the surface high pressure will build into Quebec. Cold air will continue to advect into southern New England with northerly 850 hPa flow of -5 to -10 degree Celsius air sliding in.

Drier air will filter in as the shortwave exits, which will bring an end to any ocean effect showers. Models still are struggling on the current sky cover, but expect clearing to spread in from northern New England per current satellite trends.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Highs top out in the mid 20s across the Berkshires and the mid to upper 30s across the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/.

Dry and quiet weather tonight and on Thursday. The ridge axis will build eastward from the central Great Lakes into New England and eastern Quebec.

Tonight .

Flow aloft will be northerly as the ridge gradually builds eastward. This will advect -6 to -10 degree Celsius 850 hPa air into the region. This flow and fetch will be conducive for ocean effect clouds to develop across Cape Cod and the Islands. Do not anticipate any showers to develop as there is not much lift present where the highest relative humidity is. Leaned on the latest HREF and NAMNest guidance to get a handle on this.

The rest of southern New England will see clear skies with light winds. The combination of clear skies and light winds will result in strong radiational cooling. Knocked down low temperatures a few more degrees compared to the previous forecast by nudging things toward the 10th percentile of guidance. Temperatures will be below normal with lows ranging from the single digits above zero across the higher elevations to the teens and low 20s along the coast.

Thursday .

High pressure continues to build in. Will see the mid level ridge axis slide into southern New England during the afternoon. This will shift flow aloft to a westerly and eventually a southwesterly direction, which will begin advecting milder air in. During this same time a shortwave trough will lift from the central Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes. Despite the high, expect high clouds to slide in from southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Cape Cod and the Islands should see any ocean effect clouds diminish by the afternoon as flow becomes westerly.

High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.

Highlights .

* Friday - pick of the week with highs in the low 40s, partial sunshine and light winds

* Still monitoring potential storm Saturday/Sat night, but latest trends support offshore track/glancing blow & short duration event

* Dry and blustery Sunday, mild & dry Mon with chance of precip Tuesday

Details .

Thursday night . tranquil/dry weather with 1025+ mb high over southern New England. However light winds, mostly clear skies and a dry atmosphere will result in a chilly night. Thus have leaned toward the colder MOS guidance to derive min temps which yields lows in the teens most locations, 20-25 in the urban areas.

Friday . Likely the pick of the week with short wave ridging providing at least partial sunshine, light winds and highs in the lower 40s.

Saturday . large scale/synoptic flow favors a progressive/unphased and offshore track given lack of downstream/high latitude blocking along with very fast flow upstream across the CONUS. New 00z guidance (both deterministic and ensembles) support this outcome, with just a glancing blow to southeast MA. In addition airmass is very marginal to support snow so likely mixing with or changing to rain. Surface temps also marginal for accumulating snow. Thus overall the threat for significant accumulating snow remains very low. Although it is worth noting about 10 of the 50 members from the 00z Euro ensembles are fairly big hits for southern New England. This has been consistent from previous ensemble runs. So while significant snows are unlikely (reasons mentioned above) it is a non zero probability. Thus still too early (84+ hrs away) to completely dismiss. Will have to continue watching until better model clustering occurs especially ensembles. Jet energy of interest is currently still offshore of BC, an area lacking aircraft data/traffic and obviously sounding data. Will be interesting to see if any change in trends occur as it comes onshore with today's 12z run and especially following 00z model runs.

Sunday . likely becoming blustery and cooler behind departing ocean storm. Could be an isolated rain/snow shower with trailing short wave energy rotating across southern New England. Otherwise dry weather prevails. Temps likely remaining at least a few degs above normal however it will feel chilly given the strengthening NW wind.

Early Next Week .

Dry NW flow aloft likely persists into Monday yielding dry weather and temps continuing to run at least a few degs above normal. Upper air pattern remains progressive so overrunning precip possible by Tue. Marginal temps may result in some wintry precip possible but it's a long way off.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z Discussion . only change was to capture rapid clearing/back edge of clouds moving north to south across MA. Otherwise previous forecast on track. Earlier discussion below.

===============================================================

Borderline MVFR conditions over roughly the next 6 hours. Models still having a hard time with the cloud cover in place over the region with a shortwave trough lifting offshore. Could see clearing to VFR from NH southwestward as is currently occurring over eastern NH via satellite. Ceilings will be between 2-5 kft. Heavily utilized the GLAMP guidance in the latest update. Any ocean effect snow showers will gradually taper off as drier air moves in for Cape Cod.

Wednesday .

Expect any MVFR ceilings to clear to VFR roughly by 15Z across Cape Cod. Will see N to NW winds at 5-15 kts with speeds being the highest along E coastal terminals.

Wednesday night .

VFR conditions with light northerly winds.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in the TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Short Term /through Thursday/ .

Expect winds to pick up across the eastern outer waters this afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds will become more northerly tonight with gusts of 20 to 25 kts across the eastern outer waters. Waves will build up to 7 ft across the far eastern outer waters. High confidence in the wind and wave height forecast. Decided on issuing a Small Craft Advisory based on the winds and waves expected for the eastern outer waters.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ250-254.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera/BL NEAR TERM . Nocera/BL SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . Nocera AVIATION . Nocera/BL MARINE . Nocera/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 4 mi55 min NNW 15 G 16 31°F 1016.3 hPa (+2.6)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 17 mi61 min N 8 G 13 32°F 35°F1016.1 hPa
FRXM3 18 mi61 min 32°F 18°F
PRUR1 18 mi61 min 33°F 17°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 19 mi61 min NNW 13 G 17 32°F 1016.2 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 19 mi61 min 32°F 40°F1016.5 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 21 mi70 min N 8.9 32°F 1016 hPa18°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 21 mi61 min N 8 G 14 32°F 1016.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 22 mi61 min NW 11 G 16 32°F 39°F1016.5 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 25 mi61 min N 15 G 20 32°F 39°F1016.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 28 mi70 min WNW 6 34°F 1015 hPa22°F
PVDR1 30 mi61 min NW 9.9 G 14 32°F 1016.6 hPa16°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 31 mi61 min N 12 G 16 32°F 39°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 34 mi55 min 44°F3 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 39 mi45 min 12 G 16 1015.4 hPa
44090 45 mi55 min 39°F3 ft

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI15 mi62 minNNW 1110.00 miOvercast32°F17°F54%1015.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA16 mi62 minNW 510.00 miOvercast31°F17°F56%1015.7 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA21 mi62 minNW 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast35°F19°F54%1015 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI24 mi65 minN 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F17°F55%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUUU

Wind History from UUU (wind in knots)
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1 day ago55--W85
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2 days agoW9W85SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Penikese Island, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Penikese Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:24 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:21 AM EST     3.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:45 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:36 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:46 PM EST     3.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.30.50.10.20.50.91.52.12.73.132.51.60.70.20.10.30.81.31.82.42.93

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:50 AM EST     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:28 AM EST     1.87 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:06 PM EST     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:37 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:49 PM EST     2.12 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-2.1-2.4-2-1.3-0.60.10.71.41.81.80.9-0.6-2-2.5-2.2-1.5-0.70.10.81.41.92.11.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.