Monday, March8, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bay Village, OH

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:27PM Monday March 8, 2021 11:11 AM EST (16:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:18AMMoonset 1:25PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ146 Expires:202103082130;;660208 Fzus51 Kcle 081448 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 948 Am Est Mon Mar 8 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez145>149-082130- Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 948 Am Est Mon Mar 8 2021
This afternoon..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves in ice free areas 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 37 degrees, off cleveland 35 degrees, and off erie 33 degrees.
LEZ146


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay Village, OH
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location: 41.48, -81.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 081432 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 932 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure centered over the central Great Lakes will drift southeastward to the southeastern United States by this afternoon, allowing a warm front to lift north across the region today. Low pressure over Ontario and over the Plains will keep a warm southwesterly wind over Ohio and western Pennsylvania into Wednesday night. A cold front will move southeast across the area Thursday night into Friday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Adjusted temperatures to reflect the current observations across the area, with the highs still remaining in the low 60s. The remainder of the forecast was unchanged.

Previous Discussion . High pressure will continue to sag southeastward today, centered over the southeastern CONUS by this afternoon. A weak low will move east across the Great Lakes today and tonight, with a warm front extending from this low moving eastward across the CWA this morning into the early afternoon. Low to mid-level clouds straddling the 850 theta-e gradient along the warm front are moving into the western part of the CWA, signifying the location of the warm front. Behind this warm front, an anomalously warm airmass will advect into the region. Hi-res models are predicting very deep boundary layer mixing later this afternoon, perhaps up to a peak of 800 mb. This should result in high temperatures of about 15 to 20 degrees above normal, gusty winds, and low dew points. For high temperatures this afternoon, went with near 75th percentile of the NBM, with many areas in the low to mid 60s, with warmest temperature along the I-75 corridor. Wind gusts will consistently be in the 20 to 25 mph range this afternoon as strong boundary layer mixing brings down winds from aloft (winds at 925 mb approximately 20 to 35 knots). Gusts to 30-35 mph may be possible out west near the I-75 corridor. Went lower on dew points for most of the region as model guidance typically underestimates how low dew points can get with strong boundary layer mixing. This will bring minimum RH levels down into the 25-30% range, which may pose a very marginal fire weather risk with the gusty winds.

A weakening cold front extending from the aforementioned low pressure system sags southwest from lower Michigan, settling over Lake Erie late and perhaps into northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania tonight into Tuesday morning. Upper-level ridging builds eastward across the region during the day Tuesday, resulting in this front lifting back northeast as a warm front. It's likely there will be deep boundary layer mixing again on Tuesday with similarly warm temperatures as Monday. Main difference will be light and variable winds at the surface due to weak winds with the upper- level ridge. Due to light surface winds and large temperature difference between land and Lake Erie, am expecting the development of a lake breeze during the afternoon hours and thus cooler temperatures for lakeshore areas. Temperatures may also be a bit cooler for some locations in far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania, depending on the evolution of the front.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. The forecast area will reside in the warm sector on Wednesday and Thursday as low pressure originating over the southern Plains tracks northeast through the Upper Great Lakes. Southerly winds will be breezy again as the gradient increases with 30-40 knots at 925mb and mixing heights of near 3K feet. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are possible with the highest values expected across NW Ohio. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 60s area wide although we will see a thickening mid and high cloud deck encompass much of the area by afternoon. Shower activity on Wednesday will largely be focused across Michigan with scattered showers clipping northern portions of the forecast area on Wednesday night as the low level jet starts to veer with moisture aligned across northern Ohio. Forcing for showers will increase on Thursday as a shortwave trough lifts northeast across the Upper Great Lakes and the surface frontal boundary sinks south to northern Indiana and SE Michigan. Some expansion of showers can be expected from west to east across the area, becoming fairly widespread on Thursday night as the cold front settles south and interacts with the warm and moist airmass. QPF amounts with this system are expected to range from 0.50-1.00 inch of rain. Can not rule out a few thunderstorms, especially along the front Thursday evening, but want to wait until confidence is a little higher in timing to add to the forecast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Long range models are in fairly good agreement that the cold front will quickly push south of the area on Friday as high pressure expands across the Great Lakes Region. Trended pops downward, especially by Friday afternoon. Temperatures behind the front will settle back into the 50s, except near Lake Erie where upper 40s are possible off the cool lake. Confidence in the forecast over the weekend decreases as models struggle to resolve the interaction between a fairly strong northern stream trough moving across the Great Lakes and New England while a closed upper low slowly advances from the Dessert Southwest. Expecting that a cooler and drier solution is more likely for us as the pattern trends slower with surface high pressure being the dominant feature into the weekend. Lowered pops and expect we may be able to remove then if trends continue with temperatures trending back towards normal.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/. VFR conditions are currently observed across the region and are expected to continue through at least the next 24 to 30 hours for our TAF sites. Daytime heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing during afternoon hours, resulting in an increase in wind speeds out of the southwest Monday afternoon. Current forecast called for sustained wind speeds of 12-25 with gusts up to 25 knots, though it's possible there could be an occasional gust to 30 knots. Winds decrease with nightfall but should remain elevated near around 10 knots to the end of the TAF period. Some increase in mid level cloud cover between 5-8 kft will occur after Tuesday. MVFR ceilings may be possible at KERI between 09-12Z Tuesday. LLWS may also be possible between 00-06Z at TAF sites such as KCLE, KERI, KYNG, or KCAK but confidence wasn't high enough at this point to add to TAFs.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible with rain Wednesday night through Friday.

MARINE. Southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will develop today as a warm front lifts north across Lake Erie. Winds will shift to the northwest and become light tonight as a weak cold front settles back south across the eastern Great Lakes. Southerly winds will return on Wednesday but will be limited by the stable marine layer in place across the lake as a warm airmass overspreads the region. Southwest winds of 15-25 knots are expected Wednesday night into Thursday before another cold front settles back south on Thursday night with winds shifting to the west northwest and decreasing behind the front on Friday.

The warm airmass and early March sun will continue to erode the remaining ice on Lake Erie.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . Campbell/Saunders SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . KEC AVIATION . Saunders MARINE . KEC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LORO1 14 mi102 min SSW 16 G 21 40°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 16 mi72 min S 5.1 G 9.9 41°F 37°F1029.1 hPa (-0.7)16°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 33 mi72 min SW 12 G 20 45°F 1027.1 hPa (-0.7)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 40 mi72 min S 13 G 16 42°F 33°F1028.1 hPa (-0.8)19°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi72 min S 13 G 19 44°F 35°F1027 hPa (-1.0)17°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH5 mi21 minS 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F21°F39%1031 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH14 mi19 minS 1510.00 miFair49°F20°F32%1029.2 hPa
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH16 mi19 minSSW 1310.00 miFair47°F23°F39%1029.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCLE

Wind History from CLE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE9N7N8N9N8N7CalmSE4S3S6S5S4S4S4S7S5S7S9S9S8S10S13
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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