Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avon Lake, OH

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:26PM Saturday August 17, 2019 9:19 PM EDT (01:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:50PMMoonset 7:27AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ145 Expires:201908180215;;791980 Fzus51 Kcle 172011 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 411 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez144>147-180215- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 411 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms from late evening on. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 75 degrees, and off erie 76 degrees.
LEZ145


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avon Lake, OH
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location: 41.5, -82.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 172334
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
734 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
At the surface a stationary boundary located just north of the
lake will linger near the area over the next several days. A
series of weak troughs will move along this feature bringing on
and off chances for storms into next week.

Near term through Sunday night
Area is stabilizing as afternoon convection peaked and shifted
east. Area with remnant MCV across in will maintain the
stabilization along with loss of daytime heating. Remnant
circulation, overnight warm advection, and low level jet will be
enough to keep shower isolated thunderstorm chances in the
forecast overnight. Primarily across northwest oh, far northern
oh, and across the lake. Any additional severe storms through
tonight is unlikely. Tweaked precip chances tonight and through
the day tomorrow with this early evening update. Ensemble
guidance wanting to bring convective precip to the area for
late Sunday afternoon early evening. Previous discussion
follows.

Airmass over the area has abundant low level moisture as noted
by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. A MCS over in
continues to weaken as it pushes east and away from upper level
support. Meanwhile a trough pulling away from the area is
helping to develop some storms in NW pa and ny. Locally
developing pop up thunderstorms will also continue into the
evening. Main threat is locally heavy rain and potential for
small hail. Dcapes are high in NW ohio where midlevels are
drier, so any strong storms in this area could bring damaging
winds down. The system in in will lift northeast and across
northern counties tonight, but with lack of instability and
warming aloft expect most of the convection to wane with just
isolated to scattered rain showers. Humid conditions overnight
will keep temperatures warm around 70f.

Sunday we will see the full effect of the return flow with
temperatures approaching 90. With dew points around 70 this will
drive heat index into the mid 90s. Residual boundaries in the
area will become the focus for any diurnal storms. Afternoon
capes could reach 3k j kg in the afternoon, so any trigger for
storms could lead to rapidly developing strong to severe storms.

Once again these will be primarily diurnally driven so expect a
reduction in coverage after dark.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
Upper level ridge will build over the western united states
Monday night into Tuesday. Models are still holding on to this
overall pattern shift over the last few days. The upper level
ridge will cause troughiness over the northeastern united states
through this period. At the surface, low pressure over northern
manitoba, canada, in response to upper level negatively tilted
trough, will force a cold front east across the area Monday
afternoon. The front is expected to become nearly stationary
from west to east across the area Monday night into Tuesday. A
series of several upper level shortwave troughs and associated
positive vorticity maximums will move east along the stationary
front and bring the potential for round after round of showers
and thunderstorms to the area. Activity will need to be
monitored for the next few days as extensive rainfall from each
event will aid in making the ground become more and more
saturated with time in many or most locations. Locally heavy
rain associated with the convection should continue through this
period as dewpoint temperatures climb well into the upper 60s
and lower 70s across the entire area for the entire period. Warm
air advection south of the stationary front will push highs into
the middle and upper 80s Monday and Tuesday with lows Monday
night and Tuesday night in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Upper level ridge over the rocky mountains is expected to shift
east as west coast trough lifts northeast into northern canada
by Friday night. This upper level ridge will move east over the
local area by the end of the week pushing eastern u.S. Upper
level trough off the east coast. A cold front will move east
across the area late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.

The front will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms
to the local area. A large area of high pressure will begin to
build southeast toward the area with a drier synoptic air mass.

However, some lake induced moisture is expected over the
northeast on Friday. Then, much drier air and subsidence will
rule and carry over into the weekend. The large area of high
pressure will build southeast across the great lakes into the
mid atlantic region by Saturday afternoon. A return warming
southwest flow will develop on the back side of the high
pressure center over the weekend.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Much of the next 24 hours will be quiet. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower storm overnight with increase in low level jet,
but coverage and confidence low. Best chances look to be with
tol cle eri. Expecting CIGS vsby to remainVFR. South-
southwest wind increases Sunday afternoon 10 10 to 15 knots.

Much of Sunday will be dry. Convection chances increase mid late
afternoon from the west.

Outlook... Intervals of non-vfr possible primarily with
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday and again on Wednesday.

Marine
Winds on the lake will become quite variable through the
forecast period as a cold front slides southeast toward the lake
and becomes nearly stationary early next week. A cold front will
push through the region late Wednesday shifting winds to a
northwest direction and then northerly by Thursday. No major
headlines expected at this time.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jamison
near term... Jamison oudeman
short term... Lombardy
long term... Lombardy
aviation... Oudeman
marine... Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LORO1 10 mi49 min SSW 8.9 G 11 80°F
45169 13 mi19 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 77°F1 ft
45176 13 mi29 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 78°F1 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 20 mi49 min Calm G 4.1 78°F 76°F1013.4 hPa67°F
45164 23 mi79 min 77°F1 ft
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 24 mi39 min S 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 1013.4 hPa73°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 28 mi94 min Calm 77°F 1013 hPa72°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 29 mi79 min S 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 38 mi49 min WSW 1 G 1 77°F 77°F1013 hPa68°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 43 mi49 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 77°F 78°F1012.9 hPa72°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 45 mi79 min S 7 G 8 78°F 1012.7 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH9 mi88 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F72°F76%1013.4 hPa
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH14 mi86 minSSW 510.00 miFair78°F64°F64%1013.2 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH18 mi86 minSSE 610.00 miA Few Clouds80°F71°F74%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCLE

Wind History from CLE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SE5S7--S5--S7S7--S9S9S10--SW8SW10SW8SW14SW11
G16
NW3NW4E3CalmSE4S5
1 day ago--N5SW3CalmSW4S4------SW6S6W7------W10NW7W7SW7SW5SW7S11SW5SW5
2 days agoN6E5E7E6E4S3E3N3E3E5CalmSE3N5N3E4CalmW4NE9N6NE3N4N8N5--

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.