Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Colchester, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:20PM Saturday December 14, 2019 11:36 PM EST (04:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:52PMMoonset 10:21AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 713 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale warning in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of light rain with patchy drizzle early this evening. Patchy fog early this evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow, sleet and freezing rain in the evening. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 713 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in tonight behind a storm departing to the north, and lasts over the region through Sunday night. A low pressure system will then impact the waters Monday through Tuesday. High pressure returns for Wednesday and Thursday, but with a cold front moving through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colchester, CT
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location: 41.51, -72.33     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 150107 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 807 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in tonight behind a storm departing to the north, and lasts over the region through Sunday night. A low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Tuesday, then departs to the northeast Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday and remains over the area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Dewpoints and temperatures were slightly changed to better match observed trends. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

Low pressure will continue to move farther north of the forecast area tonight. Drier air behind an associated frontal boundary is advecting on a gusty west flow tonight, with leftover patchy drizzle and patchy light fog for Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut. Otherwise, expecting mainly dry conditions and gusty west flow which will continue overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure slowly builds into the region Sunday. Continued breezy with high temperatures a couple of degrees above normal courtesy of a downsloping wind flow. As for PCPN, will go with a dry forecast, but might eventually need to add in sprinkles north and west of the city as shortwave lift interacts with some moisture arriving from the Great Lakes.

The ridge of high pressure reaches us late at night Sunday with winds becoming lighter. Dry weather continues through the period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. . STORM SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT .

A low pressure system will be the focus of this time period. Central low develops Mississippi River Valley towards Tennessee Monday and will be deepening with an associated warm front moving into the local region.

Monday afternoon into Monday evening, the region receives warm air advection aloft, isentropic lift, and widespread stratiform precipitation. 850mb freezing line moves north of Long Island and perhaps some of the interior Monday evening and eventually north of the entire region by Tuesday morning. Onset of precip and first few hours, p-type likely will be snow, then a gradual changeover to a wintry mix and then to rain slowly from south to north.

For Tuesday, the central low tracks directly across the local region. Precipitation continues through the day and tapers off behind the low late Tuesday afternoon into the start of Tuesday evening. For p-type, expecting all rain for coastal areas and a wintry mix for the interior. For a part of the day, the interior changes over to plain rain. Precipitation tapers off late.

The low will be well east of the area, to North Atlantic waters offshore of Cape Cod by Tuesday night. Drying conditions are expected Tuesday night as the low deepens and accelerates northeast to eventually southeast of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday.

For specifics, CONSRaw heavily utilized with temperatures, and dewpoints. More of an overall consensus weight used for Monday with temperatures and dewpoints. Temperatures will easily get to their wet bulb values once steady precip moves in Monday. Lowered ambient temperatures 1-2 degrees late Monday afternoon through Monday evening. Most snow accumulations will be Monday afternoon through Monday night, particularly between around 3pm and around 8pm for much of the coast when wet bulb temperatures will be below freezing. NYC and Long Island above freezing thereafter with slowly rising temperatures thereafter into early Tuesday. Forecast dewpoints are above freezing along the coast and NYC overnight through Tuesday. Mostly snow for interior from around 3pm Monday until around midnight. Thereafter it is wintry mix interior to rain at coast. Overall, forecast has a 1-4 inch snow event, with around a tenth of an inch of ice across interior.

Upper level dynamics with this event convey an approaching longwave trough with a SW to NE jet streak Monday into Monday night. Upper level jet max moves across the local area Tuesday into Tuesday night. The upper level jet appears from the forecast models to be southerly dominant with not much phasing apparent in the mid levels. The associated parent low at the surface deepens about 10 mb from Monday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

For the rest of the long term, high pressure starts to build back into the region on Wednesday and will remain over the area through the end of the week. Expect dry conditions with temperatures below normal. Low pressure may impact the area over the weekend.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low pressure to the north will continue pulling away through Sunday. Main concern will be gusty SW-W winds, sustained 15-25kt with gusts 25-35kt, strongest late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, IFR cigs at KISP/KGON should lift to MVFR later this evening, then MVFR cigs extending back into all of NJ and adjacent eastern PA should lift to VFR overnight. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday night. VFR with diminishing WNW winds. Monday. Snow with IFR conds becoming likely, mainly in the afternoon and especially for the NYC metros/KHPN/KISP. Monday night. For the NYC metros and coastal terminals, mixed precip should gradually change to rain. For KHPN/KSWF, mixed wintry precip including sleet/freezing rain should change to rain late at KHPN. IFR possible. Tuesday. Mixed wintry precip including sleet/freezing rain at KSWF should change rain. Rain elsewhere. IFR conds, possibly improving to MVFR in the afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday. VFR.

MARINE. Winds pick up from the SW, then W tonight with a Gale Warning remaining on all waters. Gales should last through Sunday, and have extended the warning for the ocean, and eastern LI Sound/Bays into a portion of the evening. Winds then subside overnight Sunday with sub-advisory conds on all waters except on the ocean east of Fire Island Inlet.

Conditions on the waters are below SCA Monday through very early Tuesday. Late Tuesday morning through Tuesday night, SCA conditions will become more probable across the ocean while non-ocean waters remain below SCA. SCA conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as winds and seas remain elevated.

HYDROLOGY. Any additional rain accumulation into this evening will be very light. The only remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT where levels continue to gradually rise into this evening due to a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

Another significant rainfall event is possible Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.25 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ335-338-345. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JC/JM NEAR TERM . JC/JM SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . BC/JM AVIATION . Goodman MARINE . JC/JM HYDROLOGY . JC/JM EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi55 min WSW 8.9 G 22 50°F 47°F990.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi49 min W 14 G 18 49°F 43°F990.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi55 min 50°F 47°F991.5 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 49 mi61 min WSW 16 G 31 50°F 44°F989.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi42 minWSW 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast48°F42°F82%990.5 hPa
Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT18 mi45 minSW 9 G 1810.00 miOvercast51°F45°F80%989.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT19 mi41 minWSW 15 G 2510.00 miOvercast48°F44°F86%990.6 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT23 mi44 minSW 6 G 1910.00 miOvercast51°F43°F74%989.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3CalmCalmE3E3E4E6E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Hadlyme, Connecticut
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Hadlyme
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:33 AM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:20 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:38 PM EST     3.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:44 PM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.52.21.71.10.70.40.30.51.32.233.43.43.12.41.60.90.3-0.1-0.30.20.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:27 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:27 AM EST     -2.98 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:24 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:24 AM EST     3.08 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:51 PM EST     -3.60 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:06 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:58 PM EST     3.00 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.8-2.1-2.9-2.8-2-0.60.92.232.92.10.8-0.7-2.1-3.3-3.6-3-1.7-0.21.32.632.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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