Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Woods Hole, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 5:33PM Saturday February 27, 2021 4:03 AM EST (09:03 UTC) Moonrise 7:00PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 221 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am est this morning through this evening...
Rest of tonight..SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night through Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 221 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure begins to depart for the canadian maritimes overnight into Saturday morning. A broad low crosses the waters late on Saturday. A cold front will pass through the waters on Monday. High pressure builds in late on Tuesday into Wednesday. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woods Hole, MA
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location: 41.53, -70.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 270844 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 344 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Snow quickly transitions to rain early today as a low pressure lifts through. Brief reprieve as high pressure builds in tonight. Rain returns Sunday into Monday, especially near the South Coast, as low pressure passes southeast of New England. Dry weather should prevail most of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Highlights

* Snow to start off across most of southern New England today. Will quickly transition to all rain this morning.

Shortwave trough lifts from the central Great Lakes this morning into Quebec. Another subtle shortwave lifts from the TN Valley offshore of DE/NJ by this evening. A fairly broad low lifts across the eastern Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic and New England in response to these features. This brings a brief period of snow this morning before transitioning to all rain. Could see a dusting to an inch across the interior. Cannot completely rule out some local 2 inch amounts across the higher terrain of NW MA before changing to rain.

Still a tricky temperature forecast today. A secondary low develops along the south coast or over the region and lifts through. The secondary low lifting through should keep the ageostrophic component of the low level winds in a northerly component. This in turn helps lock in colder air in the lower levels, so it may be tough for the interior to see temperatures climb out of the 40s. Have leaned on the high res guidance in particular the ARW/NAMNest. Should warm into the mid to upper 40s and possibly a few 50s along the south coast due to the strong southerly warm air advection.

Anticipate that locations will transition over to all rain before noon, with it taking the longest across the higher terrain. This is shown well by low level warm air advecting in at 925 hPa. Starts off this morning at 0 to -3 degrees Celsius and increases to 0 to +6 Celsius by 18Z. Decent amount of QPF across southern New England with totals between 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Expecting the highest QPF along the south coast which coincides with where the strongest forcing is.

Other concern for today is strong winds. Still some differences amongst guidance in the strength of the low level jet that moves through. The high res guidance shows a 40-70 kt low level jet whereas synoptic guidance is more muted in the 40-60 kt range. Could be tough to mix down these stronger winds given the warm air advection should strengthen low level inversion. Have leaned on the HRRRE guidance as it tends to do well in these scenarios, so cannot rule out 20-30 kt gusts this afternoon across eastern MA and RI.

Lastly expecting fog across much of southern New England, but especially the interior. The precipitation changing over to rain will eat away at the snow pack. Have brought down visibilities across the interior to 1/2-3/4 of a mile where the snow depth is greater than 5 inches per the latest NOHRSC analysis. Not out of the question that fog could be a bit denser in spots.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/.

Highlights

* High pressure briefly brings drier weather Saturday night.

* Rain returns to the forecast on Sunday.

Tonight .

The shortwave lifts into Nova Scotia during the evening. Behind the wave, a ridge builds from the central Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes/Quebec. A weak high builds into the region.

Any lingering precipitation across eastern areas will taper off early in the evening as the system exits. High pressure briefly builds in and clears skies. However, will see increasing cloudiness late as the next system develops well to the SW/W of the region.

Should winds become relatively light with clearing skies for part of the night. Did knock down lows a bit in comparison to the previous forecast as there may be a bit of a window for some decent radiational cooling. Went with the 35th percentile of guidance, which results in lows in the upper 20s across the higher terrain of NW MA to the 30s elsewhere.

Sunday .

Trough over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley early on Sunday lifts into Ontario by the evening. The surface low associated with this feature lifts across the Upper Midwest into Ontario, but the cold/occluded front lifts into southern New England.

Somewhat similar setup to today, however temperatures aloft are too warm for precipitation to start off as snow. This is expected to be an all rain event. Guidance continues to slow down the onset of precipitation, so have slowed down PoPs in the latest update. Most areas may not see precipitation begin until the afternoon.

Temperature forecast is another tricky one as a secondary low may begin developing along the south coast. This should help keep the colder air locked in for parts of the interior. In addition, will have southeasterly flow which should help keep temperatures in the 40s elsewhere. So, highs range from the mid 30s across western MA to the mid 40s in SE MA/RI.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Highlights . * Rain Sunday Night-Monday, especially near South Coast. * Dry for most of next week - brief shot of colder air Tuesday. * High uncertainty regarding possible coastal low for end of next week.

Overview:

Split mid level flow is expected to dominate across the U.S. through early next week before a transition to a mean trough over eastern third of country late next week. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the details towards the end of next week. This uncertainty stems from the evolution of a mid level shortwave currently over the high latitudes of the North Pacific. It will be at least a couple of days before this comes into better focus.

Unsurprisingly, the 27/00Z GFS is the most progressive solution, leading to a more pronounced cutoff over the southeast U.S. late next week. Meanwhile most of the other medium range guidance is more of an open wave. Continue to have the greatest confidence in the forecast through Tuesday, with little confidence in the details for Thursday and Friday. Generally followed a consensus approach through this portion of the forecast.

Temperature-wise, expecting mainly above normal temperatures most of next week, with a significant exception. A strong mid level cold pool should move across northern New England Monday night into Tuesday night. it will turn sharply colder, with below normal temperatures during this time. The cold does not stick around long, with above normal temperatures returning mid week. Near normal temperatures more likely towards next Friday.

Precipitation-wise, too warm for snow or sleet Sunday night into Monday. A touch of freezing rain towards the east slopes of the Berkshires is possible Sunday night into Monday. Once a triple point low pressure and cold front pass by Monday morning, expecting a drying trend Tuesday into Wednesday as a high pressure passes through. A weak cold front provides another chance for showers late Wednesday. Then the big question is how close a coastal low pressure can get to our region late next week.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z . High confidence

VFR conditions, but increasing cloud over. Could see some MVFR ceilings spread into the eastern slopes of the Berkshires and central MA toward daybreak. Light southerly to south southeasterly winds.

Today . High confidence in trends moderate in timing

Conditions starting off as VFR/MVFR, but will deteriorate to IFR and could even have some spotty LIFR. Many areas starting off as snow, but will quickly transition to all rain by mid morning. The only exception will be across the higher terrain of the interior where the change over may not occur until late morning. Conditions falling to LIFR as heavier precipitation falls late in the morning through the afternoon. Other concern is the potential for dense fog across the interior where the rain will help erode at the snowpack. Tried to highlight this in the BAF/BDL/ORH TAF with visibility between 1/2 to 1 SM. Not out of the question it falls lower. This area of lowest visbys corresponds well with the NOHRSC snow depths at or above 5 inches. Winds S to SE at 5-10 kts. Only exception is along the coastal plain where as a strong low level jet moves through could have some gusty winds mix down. Tricky here because not out of the question we stay underneath an inversion and do not gust - which would present more of a LLWS threat. Have gusts for now of 20-35 kts during the afternoon versus LLWS. Winds shift to the SW/W as the system moves through.

Tonight . High confidence in trends moderate in timing

Conditions improving from MVFR/IFR or LIFR to VFR from west to east as a high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out some patchy fog developing across the CT River Valley. Winds still may be in the process of shifting from the S/SW to the W/NW during the evening. Speeds of 5-10 kts. Higher terrain will feature gusts of 15-20 kts.

Sunday . High confidence

VFR to start with increasing low to mid level clouds during the afternoon. Should see conditions deteriorating to MVFR and localized IFR as light rain spreads in. Light and variable winds to start shifting to the SE during the afternoon.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in trends, but moderate in exact timing of transitions to MVFR/IFR. Cannot rule out LIFR during the afternoon with SE winds.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in trends, but moderate in exact timing of transition to MVFR/IFR. Eroding snowpack could potentially make fog denser than currently forecast as rain eats away at it.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA with patchy FG. Slight chance FZRA towards the east slopes of the Berkshires.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

MARINE. Today and Tonight . High confidence

Have not made any changes to the Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories that were issued by the previous shift.

Southerly and southeasterly winds strengthen today as a system moves through. Winds shifting to the SW/W by this evening as the system exits. Winds shift to the NW tonight. Gusts of 20-30 kts this morning increase to 25-40 kts this afternoon. Expect the highest speeds where the Gale Warnings are in effect. The strong winds diminishing tonight as high pressure builds in. Waves build 4-7 feet this morning across the outer waters and 2-4 feet for the nearshore waters. Waves build to 6-9 feet this afternoon for the outer waters and 2-5 feet for the nearshore. Waves diminishing to 3-7 feet tonight with the highest heights over the southern outer waters.

Sunday . High confidence

Light and variable winds during the morning shift to the SE during the afternoon and increasing as the next system moves in. Waves 3-5 feet across the outer and southern waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides are astronomically high Monday, with Boston at 11.0 FT MLLW (12:36 PM), Nantucket 3.6 FT MLLW (12:02 PM), and Providence at 5.0 FT MLLW (9:23 AM). Current expectation is for a surge of less than one foot along the south coast, and perhaps around 1 foot along eastern MA coast, which would keep the total water level below the minor flood category for both coasts.

In addition, winds are expected to shift to the W/NW in the morning as a cold front moves offshore, lessening the potential along E MA coast. If front ends up slowing down, it is possible we could see minor splashover (sub-Coastal Flood Advisory level) along both coasts, but that seems to be a worst case scenario right now.

Does not appear to be a prolonged period of strong enough S/SE winds to build up seas offshore more than 4-5 FT, so beach erosion is not expected to be an issue right now either.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ235-237-256. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-254-255.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/BL NEAR TERM . BL SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . Belk AVIATION . Belk/BL MARINE . Belk/BL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 0 mi45 min 35°F 36°F1031.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi78 min E 2.9 35°F 1032 hPa29°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 21 mi63 min SSE 13 G 13 1032.2 hPa (-2.0)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 21 mi23 min SE 14 G 16 37°F
44090 28 mi37 min 38°F1 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 29 mi45 min SE 6 G 9.9 35°F 1031.3 hPa
FRXM3 29 mi45 min 34°F 28°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 29 mi45 min 34°F 39°F1031.5 hPa
PRUR1 34 mi45 min 38°F 30°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 35 mi45 min SE 7 G 9.9 37°F 40°F1032.4 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 35 mi45 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 38°F 39°F1031 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi78 min S 4.1 35°F 1032 hPa27°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi45 min S 2.9 G 7 36°F 1031.7 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi45 min ESE 12 G 15 36°F 39°F1030.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 39 mi45 min S 12 G 13 38°F 39°F1031.2 hPa
CHTM3 40 mi45 min S 8.9 G 16 36°F 39°F1032.2 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi45 min SSE 15 G 16 38°F 1031.3 hPa31°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 43 mi45 min S 7 G 9.9 36°F 37°F1031.3 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 46 mi37 min 40°F3 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA9 mi70 minSSE 910.00 miFair35°F27°F72%1031.9 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi78 minS 810.00 miFair30°F23°F75%1032.2 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA19 mi70 minSSE 610.00 miFair35°F26°F70%1031.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA23 mi67 minSSE 410.00 miFair35°F27°F72%1032 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMVY

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3NW4NW8NW9NW9NW12N8--SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Massachusetts
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Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:19 AM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 06:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:05 AM EST     2.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:17 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:24 PM EST     2.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0-0.2-0.20.10.71.422.32.11.61.20.90.5-0-0.3-0.20.20.91.62.121.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:53 AM EST     -3.66 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 04:16 AM EST     0.17 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:56 AM EST     3.56 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:32 AM EST     -0.15 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:11 PM EST     -4.01 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:35 PM EST     0.16 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:22 PM EST     3.90 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:10 PM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.4-3.7-3.3-2.4-1.11.82.83.43.63.22.1-2-3.5-4-3.8-3-1.81.52.83.53.93.83.11.3

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.