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Marine Weather and Tides Woods Hole, MA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:19AM

Sunset 5:33PM

Saturday February 27, 2021 4:03 AM EST (09:03 UTC)

Moonrise 7:00PM

Moonset 7:53AM

Illumination 100%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woods Hole, MA

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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 270844 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 344 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Snow quickly transitions to rain early today as a low pressure lifts through. Brief reprieve as high pressure builds in tonight. Rain returns Sunday into Monday, especially near the South Coast, as low pressure passes southeast of New England. Dry weather should prevail most of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Highlights

* Snow to start off across most of southern New England today. Will quickly transition to all rain this morning.

Shortwave trough lifts from the central Great Lakes this morning into Quebec. Another subtle shortwave lifts from the TN Valley offshore of DE/NJ by this evening. A fairly broad low lifts across the eastern Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic and New England in response to these features. This brings a brief period of snow this morning before transitioning to all rain. Could see a dusting to an inch across the interior. Cannot completely rule out some local 2 inch amounts across the higher terrain of NW MA before changing to rain.

Still a tricky temperature forecast today. A secondary low develops along the south coast or over the region and lifts through. The secondary low lifting through should keep the ageostrophic component of the low level winds in a northerly component. This in turn helps lock in colder air in the lower levels, so it may be tough for the interior to see temperatures climb out of the 40s. Have leaned on the high res guidance in particular the ARW/NAMNest. Should warm into the mid to upper 40s and possibly a few 50s along the south coast due to the strong southerly warm air advection.

Anticipate that locations will transition over to all rain before noon, with it taking the longest across the higher terrain. This is shown well by low level warm air advecting in at 925 hPa. Starts off this morning at 0 to -3 degrees Celsius and increases to 0 to +6 Celsius by 18Z. Decent amount of QPF across southern New England with totals between 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Expecting the highest QPF along the south coast which coincides with where the strongest forcing is.

Other concern for today is strong winds. Still some differences amongst guidance in the strength of the low level jet that moves through. The high res guidance shows a 40-70 kt low level jet whereas synoptic guidance is more muted in the 40-60 kt range. Could be tough to mix down these stronger winds given the warm air advection should strengthen low level inversion. Have leaned on the HRRRE guidance as it tends to do well in these scenarios, so cannot rule out 20-30 kt gusts this afternoon across eastern MA and RI.

Lastly expecting fog across much of southern New England, but especially the interior. The precipitation changing over to rain will eat away at the snow pack. Have brought down visibilities across the interior to 1/2-3/4 of a mile where the snow depth is greater than 5 inches per the latest NOHRSC analysis. Not out of the question that fog could be a bit denser in spots.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/.

Highlights

* High pressure briefly brings drier weather Saturday night.

* Rain returns to the forecast on Sunday.

Tonight .

The shortwave lifts into Nova Scotia during the evening. Behind the wave, a ridge builds from the central Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes/Quebec. A weak high builds into the region.

Any lingering precipitation across eastern areas will taper off early in the evening as the system exits. High pressure briefly builds in and clears skies. However, will see increasing cloudiness late as the next system develops well to the SW/W of the region.

Should winds become relatively light with clearing skies for part of the night. Did knock down lows a bit in comparison to the previous forecast as there may be a bit of a window for some decent radiational cooling. Went with the 35th percentile of guidance, which results in lows in the upper 20s across the higher terrain of NW MA to the 30s elsewhere.

Sunday .

Trough over the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley early on Sunday lifts into Ontario by the evening. The surface low associated with this feature lifts across the Upper Midwest into Ontario, but the cold/occluded front lifts into southern New England.

Somewhat similar setup to today, however temperatures aloft are too warm for precipitation to start off as snow. This is expected to be an all rain event. Guidance continues to slow down the onset of precipitation, so have slowed down PoPs in the latest update. Most areas may not see precipitation begin until the afternoon.

Temperature forecast is another tricky one as a secondary low may begin developing along the south coast. This should help keep the colder air locked in for parts of the interior. In addition, will have southeasterly flow which should help keep temperatures in the 40s elsewhere. So, highs range from the mid 30s across western MA to the mid 40s in SE MA/RI.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Highlights . * Rain Sunday Night-Monday, especially near South Coast. * Dry for most of next week - brief shot of colder air Tuesday. * High uncertainty regarding possible coastal low for end of next week.

Overview:

Split mid level flow is expected to dominate across the U.S. through early next week before a transition to a mean trough over eastern third of country late next week. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the details towards the end of next week. This uncertainty stems from the evolution of a mid level shortwave currently over the high latitudes of the North Pacific. It will be at least a couple of days before this comes into better focus.

Unsurprisingly, the 27/00Z GFS is the most progressive solution, leading to a more pronounced cutoff over the southeast U.S. late next week. Meanwhile most of the other medium range guidance is more of an open wave. Continue to have the greatest confidence in the forecast through Tuesday, with little confidence in the details for Thursday and Friday. Generally followed a consensus approach through this portion of the forecast.

Temperature-wise, expecting mainly above normal temperatures most of next week, with a significant exception. A strong mid level cold pool should move across northern New England Monday night into Tuesday night. it will turn sharply colder, with below normal temperatures during this time. The cold does not stick around long, with above normal temperatures returning mid week. Near normal temperatures more likely towards next Friday.

Precipitation-wise, too warm for snow or sleet Sunday night into Monday. A touch of freezing rain towards the east slopes of the Berkshires is possible Sunday night into Monday. Once a triple point low pressure and cold front pass by Monday morning, expecting a drying trend Tuesday into Wednesday as a high pressure passes through. A weak cold front provides another chance for showers late Wednesday. Then the big question is how close a coastal low pressure can get to our region late next week.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z . High confidence

VFR conditions, but increasing cloud over. Could see some MVFR ceilings spread into the eastern slopes of the Berkshires and central MA toward daybreak. Light southerly to south southeasterly winds.

Today . High confidence in trends moderate in timing

Conditions starting off as VFR/MVFR, but will deteriorate to IFR and could even have some spotty LIFR. Many areas starting off as snow, but will quickly transition to all rain by mid morning. The only exception will be across the higher terrain of the interior where the change over may not occur until late morning. Conditions falling to LIFR as heavier precipitation falls late in the morning through the afternoon. Other concern is the potential for dense fog across the interior where the rain will help erode at the snowpack. Tried to highlight this in the BAF/BDL/ORH TAF with visibility between 1/2 to 1 SM. Not out of the question it falls lower. This area of lowest visbys corresponds well with the NOHRSC snow depths at or above 5 inches. Winds S to SE at 5-10 kts. Only exception is along the coastal plain where as a strong low level jet moves through could have some gusty winds mix down. Tricky here because not out of the question we stay underneath an inversion and do not gust - which would present more of a LLWS threat. Have gusts for now of 20-35 kts during the afternoon versus LLWS. Winds shift to the SW/W as the system moves through.

Tonight . High confidence in trends moderate in timing

Conditions improving from MVFR/IFR or LIFR to VFR from west to east as a high pressure builds in. Cannot rule out some patchy fog developing across the CT River Valley. Winds still may be in the process of shifting from the S/SW to the W/NW during the evening. Speeds of 5-10 kts. Higher terrain will feature gusts of 15-20 kts.

Sunday . High confidence

VFR to start with increasing low to mid level clouds during the afternoon. Should see conditions deteriorating to MVFR and localized IFR as light rain spreads in. Light and variable winds to start shifting to the SE during the afternoon.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in trends, but moderate in exact timing of transitions to MVFR/IFR. Cannot rule out LIFR during the afternoon with SE winds.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in trends, but moderate in exact timing of transition to MVFR/IFR. Eroding snowpack could potentially make fog denser than currently forecast as rain eats away at it.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA with patchy FG. Slight chance FZRA towards the east slopes of the Berkshires.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

MARINE. Today and Tonight . High confidence

Have not made any changes to the Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories that were issued by the previous shift.

Southerly and southeasterly winds strengthen today as a system moves through. Winds shifting to the SW/W by this evening as the system exits. Winds shift to the NW tonight. Gusts of 20-30 kts this morning increase to 25-40 kts this afternoon. Expect the highest speeds where the Gale Warnings are in effect. The strong winds diminishing tonight as high pressure builds in. Waves build 4-7 feet this morning across the outer waters and 2-4 feet for the nearshore waters. Waves build to 6-9 feet this afternoon for the outer waters and 2-5 feet for the nearshore. Waves diminishing to 3-7 feet tonight with the highest heights over the southern outer waters.

Sunday . High confidence

Light and variable winds during the morning shift to the SE during the afternoon and increasing as the next system moves in. Waves 3-5 feet across the outer and southern waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain. Patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides are astronomically high Monday, with Boston at 11.0 FT MLLW (12:36 PM), Nantucket 3.6 FT MLLW (12:02 PM), and Providence at 5.0 FT MLLW (9:23 AM). Current expectation is for a surge of less than one foot along the south coast, and perhaps around 1 foot along eastern MA coast, which would keep the total water level below the minor flood category for both coasts.

In addition, winds are expected to shift to the W/NW in the morning as a cold front moves offshore, lessening the potential along E MA coast. If front ends up slowing down, it is possible we could see minor splashover (sub-Coastal Flood Advisory level) along both coasts, but that seems to be a worst case scenario right now.

Does not appear to be a prolonged period of strong enough S/SE winds to build up seas offshore more than 4-5 FT, so beach erosion is not expected to be an issue right now either.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ235-237-256. Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-254-255.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/BL NEAR TERM . BL SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . Belk AVIATION . Belk/BL MARINE . Belk/BL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Staff

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA	0 mi	45 min		35°F	36°F		1031.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA	8 mi	78 min	E 2.9	35°F			1032 hPa	29°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA	21 mi	63 min	SSE 13 G 13				1032.2 hPa (-2.0)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND	21 mi	23 min	SE 14 G 16		37°F
44090	28 mi	37 min			38°F	1 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA	29 mi	45 min	SE 6 G 9.9	35°F			1031.3 hPa
FRXM3	29 mi	45 min		34°F				28°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA	29 mi	45 min		34°F	39°F		1031.5 hPa
PRUR1	34 mi	45 min		38°F				30°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA	35 mi	45 min	SE 7 G 9.9	37°F	40°F		1032.4 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI	35 mi	45 min	SSE 8.9 G 9.9	38°F	39°F		1031 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI	36 mi	78 min	S 4.1	35°F			1032 hPa	27°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI	36 mi	45 min	S 2.9 G 7	36°F			1031.7 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI	38 mi	45 min	ESE 12 G 15	36°F	39°F		1030.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI	39 mi	45 min	S 12 G 13	38°F	39°F		1031.2 hPa
CHTM3	40 mi	45 min	S 8.9 G 16	36°F	39°F		1032.2 hPa
PVDR1	42 mi	45 min	SSE 15 G 16	38°F			1031.3 hPa	31°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI	43 mi	45 min	S 7 G 9.9	36°F	37°F		1031.3 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154)	46 mi	37 min			40°F	3 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA

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5 AM

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1 PM

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Last 24hr

NW6

NW6

NW4

W2

NW7 G10

NW10 G16

W7 G11

NW8 G13

SW6

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SW13

SW16

S10

SE3

S8 G11

S8 G12

S9

SE6 G9

SE6

SE7 G10

S6 G10

SE5

SE6 G9

1 day ago

W14 G18

W17

NW24 G37

NW21 G30

NW21 G30

NW21 G33

NW22 G27

NW17 G24

NW18 G24

W17 G21

W21 G26

NW24 G29

W13 G17

W12 G16

W10 G13

W13 G17

W14 G17

W17 G22

W14 G17

W16

W12 G15

NW9 G12

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NW5

2 days ago

W11

SW10

SW14

SW12

SW16

SW9

SW12 G15

W10

SW11

SW15

SW18

SW21

S17 G22

SW17 G23

S19 G26

SW19 G25

SW22

SW21

SW20 G25

SW17 G21

SW16

SW17

SW14

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA	9 mi	70 min	SSE 9	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	27°F	72%	1031.9 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA	12 mi	78 min	S 8	10.00 mi	Fair	30°F	23°F	75%	1032.2 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA	19 mi	70 min	SSE 6	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	26°F	70%	1031.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA	23 mi	67 min	SSE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	27°F	72%	1032 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMVY

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

Calm

W3

NW4

NW8

NW9

NW9

NW12

N8

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SW12 G17

SW12

SW8

SW5

Calm

Calm

SE5

S7

S7

S9

S9

S8

S8

SE9

SE8

1 day ago

W13 G19

W11 G18

NW15 G30

NW14 G25

NW19 G27

NW15 G27

NW16 G28

NW17 G23

W11 G22

NW13 G21

W11 G22

W9 G20

W11 G18

W7

W6

NW12 G18

NW10 G17

NW6

NW8

NW7

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W6

W4

2 days ago

W10

W12 G18

W10

W10 G19

W13 G20

W12 G20

W12 G16

W13

SW12 G17

SW16 G22

SW12

SW13 G18

SW12 G21

SW11

S14

S16 G19

SW11

SW9

SW14 G23

SW12

SW8

SW13 G23

W13 G22

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Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Massachusetts

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Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)

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Weather Map

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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