Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Marblehead, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:02PM Saturday December 7, 2019 2:04 PM EST (19:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:46PMMoonset 2:49AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 1036 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 39 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 40 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201912072145;;993471 FZUS51 KCLE 071536 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1036 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ144-145-072145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, OH
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location: 41.53, -82.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 071747 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1247 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure enters the region today and will slowly wobble to the East Coast by Sunday morning. An area of low pressure will develop over the southern Plains on Sunday night and extend a warm front north the area. This low will deepen as it moves northeast along the front and enters the Great Lakes region for Monday night. This low will push a strong cold front across the area on Tuesday. A residual trough of low pressure will linger over the Great Lakes region into Wednesday before high pressure enters from the northern Plains for Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Mid and high level clouds continue to hang tough along the northern tier counties. Some erosion is trying to take place from the south but expecting cloud deck to oscillate north/south across the northern tier counties through the rest of the afternoon. Made some adjustments to cloud cover once again with the update.

Previous Discussion . A fairly benign pattern will set up over the forecast area for the next 36 hours of the first full weekend of December. High pressure is building in from the west, as some upper ridging enters through the northwest flow. Cold air and northerly flow ahead of the high is allowing for some lake effect clouds to persist in extreme NE Ohio and NW PA. As the high progresses eastward today, winds will back through the day to the south and any lake clouds should diminish. Meanwhile, as this surface high enters, some weak low level warm air advection will enter and allow for temperatures to recover towards normal this afternoon in the upper 30s, perhaps to near 40.

High pressure passes to the east of the area tonight and better warm air advection will enter the region overnight. This air mass will be dry allowing for fairly cloud-free skies, but the strength of the WAA may allow for temperatures to remain steady around 30 degrees. A warm front will develop over the Ohio Valley with a low developing over the lee of the Rockies and another one passing to the north of the Great Lakes. This front will advance north during the day with minimal weather impacts as the air mass remains dry. The entire forecast area will be in the warm sector by Sunday afternoon and winds will pick up with gusts of 25 to 30 mph with some good mixing. Temperatures will warm considerably to near 50 degrees across the forecast area. The front will stall to the north of the forecast area and clouds will increase along this boundary as better low level moisture enters from the south. Expecting any precipitation to hold off into Sunday night, as the better moisture and synoptic lift appear to be after the near term period.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Shortwave energy arriving out of the southern stream will slide northeast across the area Sunday night ahead of a deepening trough over the Plains. Strong moisture advection will occur Sunday night with showers expanding in coverage beginning early Monday. Widespread rain can be expected on Monday with overrunning in the warm sector and PW values increasing to .85 inch. Much of the area will see around a half inch of rain with above normal temperatures in the lower 50s.

Energy associated with the northern stream trough will become negatively tilted as it lifts northeast across the upper Great Lakes Monday night with surface low pressure deepening as it tracks into northern Quebec. The trailing surface trough will slowly settle south into the area early Tuesday morning, wrapping an arctic cold front east across the area. Showers will end from west to east behind the front on Tuesday as much drier air and subsidence wraps into the back side of the system. High temperatures will occur Tuesday morning with temperatures falling through the day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Attention during the long term forecast turns towards well below normal temperatures and lake effect snow. Lake effect snow will develop Tuesday night as instability increases over Lake Erie. Model projections have been favoring a west to southwest flow across Lake Erie for several runs. Local impacts between a west and southwest flow are large, with potential for heavier snow to remain offshore with a southwest trajectory. These mesoscale details are yet to be ironed out and will take until early next week for models to get a firm handle on details like placement of troughs, strength of surface high south of the lakes, etc. One trend to note with the 00Z cycle is the ECMWF slowed down the arrival of the cooler air until Wednesday night as a a piece of arctic energy swings southeast out of Canada. Would not be surprised to see a slower trend prevail with this system. Will keep the highest pops confined to the Lake Erie shoreline for now and continue to monitor trends. Temperatures will be chilly with this system with highs on Wednesday only reaching the lower 20s. Low temperatures in the 10-15 degree range with wind chill values in the single digits on Wednesday night may be too warm depending on cloud cover and wind speeds. High pressure attempts to build east across Lake Erie on Thursday with flow shifting out over the lake. Friday is on track to be a dry day between systems.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/. Mid and high level clouds moved south into the northern tier counties of the forecast area this morning and continue to oscillate north and south. Expecting this area of clouds to persist this afternoon and evening. More clouds will begin to push southeast across the area later tonight into tomorrow ahead of the next storm system that will move northeast toward the area. Not expecting less than VFR overnight and Sunday at this time. Winds should be light this afternoon and tonight from a southerly component and then begin to increase to 10 to 20 knots tomorrow.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR likely through Monday night with rain. Non- VFR expected across the snowbelt on Tuesday into Thursday with lake effect precipitation.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire as northwest winds decrease with high pressure building overhead. The surface high will shift to the Mid-Atlantic region by Sunday. Meanwhile a trough of low pressure will approach the region from the northwest, extending from low pressure over northern Quebec. Southerly winds of 15 to 25 knots can be expected Sunday into Sunday night. Although the flow is offshore during this time, winds may be strong enough to need a Small Craft Advisory on the east half of Lake Erie. A second wave of low pressure will track northeast through the Central Great Lakes Monday night pulling an arctic cold front east across the area overnight into Tuesday. Winds will increase on Lake Erie to 20-25 knots behind the front and Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the mid-week period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Lombardy/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . KEC AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . KEC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 1 mi59 min SW 2.9 G 6 34°F 38°F1029.4 hPa20°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 9 mi65 min SW 6 G 8 32°F 1030.8 hPa (-1.2)
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 13 mi65 min WSW 7 G 8.9 35°F 1028.1 hPa (-1.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 15 mi80 min SW 2.9 37°F 1030 hPa23°F
CMPO1 16 mi95 min SSW 6 G 8 33°F
LORO1 28 mi35 min WNW 7 G 8 35°F
TWCO1 31 mi25 min SSW 6 G 8.9
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 32 mi65 min S 5.1 G 7 32°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 41 mi59 min SSE 2.9 G 6 33°F 1029.8 hPa19°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH31 mi72 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F21°F55%1030.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13N15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.