Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 071747 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1247 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure enters the region today and will slowly wobble to the East Coast by Sunday morning. An area of low pressure will develop over the southern Plains on Sunday night and extend a warm front north the area. This low will deepen as it moves northeast along the front and enters the Great Lakes region for Monday night. This low will push a strong cold front across the area on Tuesday. A residual trough of low pressure will linger over the Great Lakes region into Wednesday before high pressure enters from the northern Plains for Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Mid and high level clouds continue to hang tough along the northern tier counties. Some erosion is trying to take place from the south but expecting cloud deck to oscillate north/south across the northern tier counties through the rest of the afternoon. Made some adjustments to cloud cover once again with the update.

Previous Discussion . A fairly benign pattern will set up over the forecast area for the next 36 hours of the first full weekend of December. High pressure is building in from the west, as some upper ridging enters through the northwest flow. Cold air and northerly flow ahead of the high is allowing for some lake effect clouds to persist in extreme NE Ohio and NW PA. As the high progresses eastward today, winds will back through the day to the south and any lake clouds should diminish. Meanwhile, as this surface high enters, some weak low level warm air advection will enter and allow for temperatures to recover towards normal this afternoon in the upper 30s, perhaps to near 40.

High pressure passes to the east of the area tonight and better warm air advection will enter the region overnight. This air mass will be dry allowing for fairly cloud-free skies, but the strength of the WAA may allow for temperatures to remain steady around 30 degrees. A warm front will develop over the Ohio Valley with a low developing over the lee of the Rockies and another one passing to the north of the Great Lakes. This front will advance north during the day with minimal weather impacts as the air mass remains dry. The entire forecast area will be in the warm sector by Sunday afternoon and winds will pick up with gusts of 25 to 30 mph with some good mixing. Temperatures will warm considerably to near 50 degrees across the forecast area. The front will stall to the north of the forecast area and clouds will increase along this boundary as better low level moisture enters from the south. Expecting any precipitation to hold off into Sunday night, as the better moisture and synoptic lift appear to be after the near term period.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Shortwave energy arriving out of the southern stream will slide northeast across the area Sunday night ahead of a deepening trough over the Plains. Strong moisture advection will occur Sunday night with showers expanding in coverage beginning early Monday. Widespread rain can be expected on Monday with overrunning in the warm sector and PW values increasing to .85 inch. Much of the area will see around a half inch of rain with above normal temperatures in the lower 50s.

Energy associated with the northern stream trough will become negatively tilted as it lifts northeast across the upper Great Lakes Monday night with surface low pressure deepening as it tracks into northern Quebec. The trailing surface trough will slowly settle south into the area early Tuesday morning, wrapping an arctic cold front east across the area. Showers will end from west to east behind the front on Tuesday as much drier air and subsidence wraps into the back side of the system. High temperatures will occur Tuesday morning with temperatures falling through the day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Attention during the long term forecast turns towards well below normal temperatures and lake effect snow. Lake effect snow will develop Tuesday night as instability increases over Lake Erie. Model projections have been favoring a west to southwest flow across Lake Erie for several runs. Local impacts between a west and southwest flow are large, with potential for heavier snow to remain offshore with a southwest trajectory. These mesoscale details are yet to be ironed out and will take until early next week for models to get a firm handle on details like placement of troughs, strength of surface high south of the lakes, etc. One trend to note with the 00Z cycle is the ECMWF slowed down the arrival of the cooler air until Wednesday night as a a piece of arctic energy swings southeast out of Canada. Would not be surprised to see a slower trend prevail with this system. Will keep the highest pops confined to the Lake Erie shoreline for now and continue to monitor trends. Temperatures will be chilly with this system with highs on Wednesday only reaching the lower 20s. Low temperatures in the 10-15 degree range with wind chill values in the single digits on Wednesday night may be too warm depending on cloud cover and wind speeds. High pressure attempts to build east across Lake Erie on Thursday with flow shifting out over the lake. Friday is on track to be a dry day between systems.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/. Mid and high level clouds moved south into the northern tier counties of the forecast area this morning and continue to oscillate north and south. Expecting this area of clouds to persist this afternoon and evening. More clouds will begin to push southeast across the area later tonight into tomorrow ahead of the next storm system that will move northeast toward the area. Not expecting less than VFR overnight and Sunday at this time. Winds should be light this afternoon and tonight from a southerly component and then begin to increase to 10 to 20 knots tomorrow.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR likely through Monday night with rain. Non- VFR expected across the snowbelt on Tuesday into Thursday with lake effect precipitation.

MARINE. The Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire as northwest winds decrease with high pressure building overhead. The surface high will shift to the Mid-Atlantic region by Sunday. Meanwhile a trough of low pressure will approach the region from the northwest, extending from low pressure over northern Quebec. Southerly winds of 15 to 25 knots can be expected Sunday into Sunday night. Although the flow is offshore during this time, winds may be strong enough to need a Small Craft Advisory on the east half of Lake Erie. A second wave of low pressure will track northeast through the Central Great Lakes Monday night pulling an arctic cold front east across the area overnight into Tuesday. Winds will increase on Lake Erie to 20-25 knots behind the front and Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the mid-week period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Lombardy/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . KEC AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . KEC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	1 mi	59 min	SW 2.9 G 6	34°F	38°F		1029.4 hPa	20°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH	9 mi	65 min	SW 6 G 8	32°F			1030.8 hPa (-1.2)
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	13 mi	65 min	WSW 7 G 8.9	35°F			1028.1 hPa (-1.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	15 mi	80 min	SW 2.9	37°F			1030 hPa	23°F
CMPO1	16 mi	95 min	SSW 6 G 8	33°F
LORO1	28 mi	35 min	WNW 7 G 8	35°F
TWCO1	31 mi	25 min	SSW 6 G 8.9
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	32 mi	65 min	S 5.1 G 7	32°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	41 mi	59 min	SSE 2.9 G 6	33°F			1029.8 hPa	19°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH	31 mi	72 min	Var 5	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	36°F	21°F	55%	1030.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLPR

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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