Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jewett City, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:54PM Friday January 24, 2020 8:19 PM EST (01:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:08AMMoonset 5:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 717 Pm Est Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est Saturday through Sunday evening...
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sun night and Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue through Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Pm Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over the maritimes through tonight. Low pres will move ne from the mid atlc region Sat, tracking across southern new eng Sat night then into maine on Sun. The low pres will move into the maritimes Mon into Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jewett City , CT
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location: 41.56, -72     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 242339 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 639 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure approaches from the south and west tonight. The low will move across the region on Saturday, through New England on Sunday, and into the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. A broad area of high pressure should dominate the weather for much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Made some minor adjustments to temperatures, dewpoints, and clouds based on latest observed trends. Overall, the forecast is on track.

Upper ridge axis moves off the New England coast tonight as a closed upper low approaches from the west. Parent low pressure will be moving over the Great Lakes with a secondary low pressure developing over the Middle Atlantic tonight. The secondary low will move over the region on Saturday.

Surface high pressure will continue retreating north, but the dry air left behind by the surface and upper ridging will take some time to saturate. The forecast for tonight is largely dry, but will need to watch for any light precip that may develop across the interior. Temperatures should be able to fall to around 30 degrees across Orange County before thicker cloud cover moves overhead. Forecast soundings show a significant amount of middle level dry air to overcome, and the best forcing does not move into the region until late Saturday morning. Any light precip that develops from moisture below 2-3kft could be in the form of freezing rain across Orange county early Saturday morning, mainly along and north of I-84. Have elected to hold off on a Winter Weather Advisory and will issue an SPS until 15z to account for spotty light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Thereafter, temperatures will be above freezing with any light precip in the form of plain rain.

Deep moisture and axis of strong lift will begin entering the western portion of the area after 15z Saturday. This is when the rain will become steadier and increase in coverage. The model guidance continues to come into excellent agreement on the timing and overall coverage of rain. Simulated reflectivities from the NAM/NAM-3km, HRRR, and GFS all show a corridor of moderate to heavy rain band developing 15z-18z west of NYC. The band of rain will move across NYC metro, Hudson River Corridor, western Long Island, and southwest CT 18z-22z, and points east after 22z. The rain should end quickly from west to east behind the band of rain as a middle and upper level dry slot move overhead. There is a subtropical feed of moisture with PWATs nearing 1 inch. Locally heavy rain is possible, but the quick movement will preclude any significant flood threat. Only minor nuisance flooding is possible. An average of 1 to 1.25 inches of rain is forecast with locally higher amounts.

E-SE wind gusts 25-30 mph are expected in the morning and afternoon near the coast. Winds should diminish late as the low moves over the area.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 30s inland to the middle and upper 30s elsewhere. Lows may occur during the first half of the night and slowly rise into Saturday morning. High temperatures Saturday will be above normal in the 40s, possibly nearing 50 degrees near the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Band of moderate to heavy rain will continue moving across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut early Saturday evening and exit by 03z. The rest of the night will be dry with skies likely remaining becoming partly cloudy by early Sunday morning. The surface low will track across New England leaving behind a drying westerly flow across the local area Saturday night.

The westerly flow continues on Sunday as the upper low spins over New England. Mainly dry and breezy conditions are forecast Sunday with just a slight chance for a rain or snow shower to enter western Orange County in the afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower to middle 40s, continuing above normal for this time of year.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Upper low will meander across northern New England on Sunday Night and then slowly towards the Canadian Maritimes Monday. The upper low should move over the North Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. An upper ridge may develop late next week. The forecast remains dry Sunday Night through Friday. Temperatures will be above normal Monday and Tuesday and then should trend towards normal for the rest of the week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. VFR expected tonight ahead of the incoming system. MVFR likely begin after midnight for most terminals as an area of low pressure approaches from the southwest.

As the rain begins to bring in lowered ceilings, conditions then fall to IFR during the morning and remain IFR most of the afternoon/early afternoon. Expect plain rain for most terminals, with the exception of KSWF, where a brief period freezing rain may be possible if temperatures remain sub freezing at the onset of the precipitation. Any light freezing rain will be short lived and over by mid morning with rain thereafter. Moderate to heavy rainfall between 17-22z with the rain coming to an end likely after 03z.

Light winds continue tonight, but gradually become E, slowly increasing to around 10 kt for the city and coastal terminals after 06Z Saturday. Winds continue to increase through the morning Saturday, with sustained winds of 20 kt and gusts to 25 kt by late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. Winds will be increasing aloft as well, with SE wind shear of 50 kt at 2000 ft around the same time

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday evening. IFR in rain. E winds 10-20G20-25 kt during the afternoon with LLWS possible. Winds diminish at night. Sunday. MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain or snow showers possible across the interior. Monday-Wednesday. VFR.

MARINE. Strengthening easterly flow ahead of approaching low pressure will build seas to SCA levels early Saturday morning. Winds will also increase in the morning reaching SCA levels on all waters. A gale force wind gusts cannot be ruled out on the ocean waters, but the duration is not expected to be more than an hour and elected to not issue a gale warning. It is more likely winds will remain below gale. Winds will weaken on the waters Saturday evening as the loves move through, but ocean seas will remain elevated through Sunday. These seas may linger Therefore, an SCA will go into effect for the ocean waters. There could be a brief period in the early afternoon where gale force gusts could occur, mainly on the ocean.

Wind gusts fall below 25 kt by Saturday night as the system pulls away, however seas will be to slow to subside. Increasing westerly flow on Sunday may bring winds on the ocean to marginal SCA levels. Otherwise, sub SCA winds are forecast on the waters through Wednesday. Ocean seas may remain elevated through Monday.

HYDROLOGY. An inch to an inch and a half of rainfall is forecast Saturday through Saturday evening. Nuisance minor flooding is possible during the afternoon and early evening when a period of moderate to heavy rain is expected as well as for any periods where heavy rain coincides with high tide.

No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Sunday through next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The easterly flow in place tonight will increase in advance of approaching low pressure Saturday morning. Steady easterly flow remains into the start of Saturday evening before flow switches to more westerly behind the low pressure area. This will set increasing easterly fetch and resulting higher waves, and piling of water.

In combination with a recent new moon and higher astronomical cycle, some areas of minor coastal flooding are expected. The higher of the high tides Saturday for most locations will be the daytime cycles from morning into early afternoon. The main areas where the storm surge is expected to be higher are the South Shore Bays and Western Long Island Sound where there is expected to be more onshore flow. Went with higher model guidance and increased manually with surge levels with total water level forecast.

In terms of coastal hazards, coastal flood advisories are up for most Western Long Island Sound shorelines as well as the South Shore Bays where minor coastal flooding is expected to be widespread. Elsewhere, for other coastal zones, coastal flood statements are up for high tide cycles and minor coastal flooding for these other coastal zones is expected to be more isolated.

Forecast models are lingering the higher storm surge across Long Island Sound late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Winds switch to more SW direction Saturday night and while astronomical tides are lower, there could be some areas where water levels could touch minor coastal flood benchmarks, making for potentially more coastal flood statements Saturday night for the second high tide cycle.

More westerly flow on Sunday will result in lower total water levels for the shorelines so no coastal flooding is expected on Sunday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for CTZ009-010. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for NYZ071-078-177. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EST Saturday for NYZ178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DS NEAR TERM . JM/DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . DJ MARINE . DS HYDROLOGY . DS/JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . JM EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi49 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 39°F 42°F1027.8 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 18 mi84 min E 14 G 16 42°F 1024.2 hPa31°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi55 min NE 8 G 8.9 40°F 38°F1028.7 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 35 mi49 min 41°F 38°F1027.5 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 35 mi94 min ENE 7 38°F 1029 hPa34°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 35 mi49 min NE 5.1 G 5.1 37°F 1029.2 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 36 mi55 min NNE 6 G 8 38°F 38°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 36 mi49 min ENE 4.1 G 6 39°F 39°F1029.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi49 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 36°F1028.3 hPa
PVDR1 36 mi49 min NNE 4.1 G 6 38°F 1029.2 hPa35°F
PRUR1 37 mi49 min 40°F 37°F
FRXM3 44 mi55 min 38°F 34°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 45 mi49 min NNE 5.1 G 6 39°F 1028.9 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 45 mi49 min 39°F1029 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT16 mi27 minENE 610.00 miFair36°F30°F79%1028.7 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi83 minENE 810.00 miFair39°F28°F65%1027.6 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI18 mi26 minNE 310.00 miFair40°F28°F65%1028.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE3CalmN6N6N4CalmS5SE6SE5SE5SE7E11E9E8NE3
1 day agoCalmCalmN3N3CalmNW3CalmCalmN3CalmN5N3CalmCalmSW5SW8SW9SW12W7SW5SW4CalmW4Calm
2 days agoN3N5NW7N4CalmN3NW6CalmN3N3N4N4N3N4NW4S8S6SW6SW8SW7W6NW5W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Norwich, Connecticut
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Norwich
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:06 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:03 AM EST     3.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:51 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:34 PM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.90.3-00.211.82.63.23.43.22.82.11.40.6-0.1-0.30.10.81.52.12.52.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:05 AM EST     -3.38 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:08 AM EST     3.14 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:02 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:27 PM EST     -3.98 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:41 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:43 PM EST     3.09 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-2.8-3.4-3-1.9-0.41.32.73.12.91.80.1-1.6-2.9-3.9-3.8-2.9-1.50.322.93.12.51.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.