Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middle, CT
May 5, 2024 2:25 PM EDT (18:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:39 AM Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 4:16 AM Moonset 5:09 PM |
ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.
Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 1227 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure along the new england coast weakens locally as it shifts farther offshore through this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The front eventually tracks through the region late Monday, stalling to our south. High pressure then briefly returns before the stalled boundary returns as a warm front Tuesday night. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather from Wednesday through Saturday.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 051754 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 154 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure along the New England coast weakens locally as it shifts farther offshore today ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The front eventually tracks through the region late Monday, stalling to our south. High pressure then briefly returns before the stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front Tuesday night. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather from Wednesday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Made minor adjustments to the probabilities through this afternoon to better reflect the current conditions. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
Stubborn amplified ridging aloft over the Eastern US begins to break down today as a shortwave swings east through the Great Lakes and into southeast Canada. A weak area of low pressure associated with a shortwave running into and over the ridge passes well to the northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. This will help push a frontal boundary toward the region, though will take plenty of time getting here. Ahead of it, surface high pressure centered near the Canadian Maritimes will maintain onshore flow as it begins to shift farther out into the western Atlantic.
More organized shower activity moves through the region this afternoon as the shortwave axis translates east over the shunted ridge. Timing for this rain looks to begin for western areas by midday, spreading slowly eastward into CT and Long Island by mid afternoon, then continuing intermittently into the evening before tapering from west to east overnight. Rates will be light, as will QPF.
Look for areas of fog development tonight in the weak onshore flow and saturated low levels from the residual moisture. May be locally dense in spots, and will need to monitor this evening should any potential headlines be needed into the AM commute.
With the rain, clouds, and return flow temperatures run 10 to 15 degrees below normal today, with afternoon highs in the 50s. These temperatures likely remain steady overnight, or even rise a few degrees toward Monday AM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Lingering showers should largely come to an end for eastern areas in the morning hours on Monday, with fog likely hanging around elsewhere before burning off by mid to late morning.
Temperatures jump 20 degrees for some compared to Sunday as SW flow helps to advect in some milder air, rebounding into the 70s across the interior and areas away from maritime influence.
Can't rule out a few pop up showers in the afternoon ahead of the trailing cold front, but coverage appears limited on CAMs at this point with decreased moisture. The front finally moves through Monday night and stalls over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. The boundary eventually lifts back north as a warm front, but before this, ridging returns, along with weak surface high pressure.
This should set up the driest day of the week so far on Tuesday, with drier air working in. Another mild afternoon with downsloping helping the interior and areas away from the coast to warm into the mid to upper 70s. Night will remain mild, generally in the 50s, with lower 60s in the urban metro.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Models over the past 24 hours have trended farther south and slightly stronger regarding an area of low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes Region and heading towards us Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is therefore more confidence that an associated warm front advances through a good portion of the forecast area during Wednesday before a trailing cold front sinks south through here Wednesday night. Shower chances increase Tuesday night with the best chances occurring through the day Wednesday and generally higher across the northern zones, which will be closer to the low center.
More instability is now anticipated - being in the warm sector.
Thunderstorms will therefore be possible during Wednesday, and given potential shear profiles, steepening mid-level lapse rates with a bit of a cold pool aloft, and CAPE aloft, will need to monitor trends for the potential of strong wind gusts and small hail. NBM was used for high temps, which are now expected to reach the lower 80s for NE NJ and parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and city. Mainly 70s for most of the rest of the forecast area.
The cold front stalls not too far to our south Wednesday night and remains to our south while another wave of low pressure from the Great Lakes Region approaches. Looks like an occlusion may occur as a weak secondary low forms along the stalled boundary to our south, resulting in a broad area of low pressure shifting through during late Thursday night into Friday. Potential remains for yet another wave of low pressure to pass nearby the area Friday night into Saturday. There will be at least some chance of showers for each period from Wednesday night through Saturday night. The highest chances appear to be Thursday afternoon into night, but might linger into Friday morning as well. NBM looked good for temperatures through the period.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A frontal system slowly approaches from the west.
Cigs lowering to IFR this afternoon/evening, likely remaining IFR through Monday morning then slowly improving to MVFR/VFR after mid day on Monday. Showers become more likely this afternoon, then remaining likely well into tonight, then tapering off overnight.
ESE-SE winds around 10kt or less through this evening with some occasional gusts up to 20 kt through this afternoon, shifting more southerly late tonight and remaining southerly through Monday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of IFR onset may delayed by an hour or two. Chance that MVFR cigs develop for a few hours this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Sunday night: IFR with showers ending.
Monday: IFR to MVFR in the morning, then MVFR, becoming VFR in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers, an isolated thunderstorm possible.
Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR to IFR late at night.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Thunderstorms possible mainly in the afternoon.
Thursday through Friday: Mainly MVFR. Showers likely, mainly in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
No changes to winds and seas at this time.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Thursday, but ocean seas may rise to 5 ft Thursday night.
HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tide levels fell short of Stevens Institute NYHOPS guidance last night. Given its forecast for tonight's high tide, expecting at most isolated spots over Southern Fairfield County to touch minor flooding thresholds, but it's more likely that levels will fall just short of benchmarks. Will therefore hold off on issuing a statement for this area for the time being. Statements will be more likely here for Monday night, as well as statements possibly needed for the south shore back bays of Nassau County.
The potential of a more widespread minor flooding event that would necessitate advisories will probably hold off until Tuesday and Wednesday nights for these same areas as well as southern Queens.
Statements for these 2 high tide cycles may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 154 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure along the New England coast weakens locally as it shifts farther offshore today ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The front eventually tracks through the region late Monday, stalling to our south. High pressure then briefly returns before the stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front Tuesday night. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather from Wednesday through Saturday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Made minor adjustments to the probabilities through this afternoon to better reflect the current conditions. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
Stubborn amplified ridging aloft over the Eastern US begins to break down today as a shortwave swings east through the Great Lakes and into southeast Canada. A weak area of low pressure associated with a shortwave running into and over the ridge passes well to the northwest through the Upper Great Lakes. This will help push a frontal boundary toward the region, though will take plenty of time getting here. Ahead of it, surface high pressure centered near the Canadian Maritimes will maintain onshore flow as it begins to shift farther out into the western Atlantic.
More organized shower activity moves through the region this afternoon as the shortwave axis translates east over the shunted ridge. Timing for this rain looks to begin for western areas by midday, spreading slowly eastward into CT and Long Island by mid afternoon, then continuing intermittently into the evening before tapering from west to east overnight. Rates will be light, as will QPF.
Look for areas of fog development tonight in the weak onshore flow and saturated low levels from the residual moisture. May be locally dense in spots, and will need to monitor this evening should any potential headlines be needed into the AM commute.
With the rain, clouds, and return flow temperatures run 10 to 15 degrees below normal today, with afternoon highs in the 50s. These temperatures likely remain steady overnight, or even rise a few degrees toward Monday AM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Lingering showers should largely come to an end for eastern areas in the morning hours on Monday, with fog likely hanging around elsewhere before burning off by mid to late morning.
Temperatures jump 20 degrees for some compared to Sunday as SW flow helps to advect in some milder air, rebounding into the 70s across the interior and areas away from maritime influence.
Can't rule out a few pop up showers in the afternoon ahead of the trailing cold front, but coverage appears limited on CAMs at this point with decreased moisture. The front finally moves through Monday night and stalls over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. The boundary eventually lifts back north as a warm front, but before this, ridging returns, along with weak surface high pressure.
This should set up the driest day of the week so far on Tuesday, with drier air working in. Another mild afternoon with downsloping helping the interior and areas away from the coast to warm into the mid to upper 70s. Night will remain mild, generally in the 50s, with lower 60s in the urban metro.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Models over the past 24 hours have trended farther south and slightly stronger regarding an area of low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes Region and heading towards us Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is therefore more confidence that an associated warm front advances through a good portion of the forecast area during Wednesday before a trailing cold front sinks south through here Wednesday night. Shower chances increase Tuesday night with the best chances occurring through the day Wednesday and generally higher across the northern zones, which will be closer to the low center.
More instability is now anticipated - being in the warm sector.
Thunderstorms will therefore be possible during Wednesday, and given potential shear profiles, steepening mid-level lapse rates with a bit of a cold pool aloft, and CAPE aloft, will need to monitor trends for the potential of strong wind gusts and small hail. NBM was used for high temps, which are now expected to reach the lower 80s for NE NJ and parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and city. Mainly 70s for most of the rest of the forecast area.
The cold front stalls not too far to our south Wednesday night and remains to our south while another wave of low pressure from the Great Lakes Region approaches. Looks like an occlusion may occur as a weak secondary low forms along the stalled boundary to our south, resulting in a broad area of low pressure shifting through during late Thursday night into Friday. Potential remains for yet another wave of low pressure to pass nearby the area Friday night into Saturday. There will be at least some chance of showers for each period from Wednesday night through Saturday night. The highest chances appear to be Thursday afternoon into night, but might linger into Friday morning as well. NBM looked good for temperatures through the period.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A frontal system slowly approaches from the west.
Cigs lowering to IFR this afternoon/evening, likely remaining IFR through Monday morning then slowly improving to MVFR/VFR after mid day on Monday. Showers become more likely this afternoon, then remaining likely well into tonight, then tapering off overnight.
ESE-SE winds around 10kt or less through this evening with some occasional gusts up to 20 kt through this afternoon, shifting more southerly late tonight and remaining southerly through Monday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of IFR onset may delayed by an hour or two. Chance that MVFR cigs develop for a few hours this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Sunday night: IFR with showers ending.
Monday: IFR to MVFR in the morning, then MVFR, becoming VFR in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers, an isolated thunderstorm possible.
Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR to IFR late at night.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Thunderstorms possible mainly in the afternoon.
Thursday through Friday: Mainly MVFR. Showers likely, mainly in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
No changes to winds and seas at this time.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions through Thursday, but ocean seas may rise to 5 ft Thursday night.
HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tide levels fell short of Stevens Institute NYHOPS guidance last night. Given its forecast for tonight's high tide, expecting at most isolated spots over Southern Fairfield County to touch minor flooding thresholds, but it's more likely that levels will fall just short of benchmarks. Will therefore hold off on issuing a statement for this area for the time being. Statements will be more likely here for Monday night, as well as statements possibly needed for the south shore back bays of Nassau County.
The potential of a more widespread minor flooding event that would necessitate advisories will probably hold off until Tuesday and Wednesday nights for these same areas as well as southern Queens.
Statements for these 2 high tide cycles may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound as well as lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 24 mi | 68 min | ESE 7G | 49°F | 55°F | 30.29 | ||
| NLHC3 | 32 mi | 68 min | 48°F | 61°F | 30.29 | |||
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 35 mi | 56 min | ESE 11G | 47°F | ||||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 39 mi | 68 min | ESE 9.9G | 49°F | 30.22 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMMK MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNI,CT | 10 sm | 32 min | SSE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 43°F | 71% | 30.26 | |
| KHFD HARTFORDBRAINARD,CT | 12 sm | 32 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 52°F | 45°F | 76% | 30.26 |
| KSNC CHESTER,CT | 14 sm | 10 min | var 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 48°F | 46°F | 93% | 30.27 | |
| KHVN TWEEDNEW HAVEN,CT | 24 sm | 32 min | ESE 09G16 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 46°F | 82% | 30.27 |
Portland
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:16 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:35 AM EDT 2.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:28 PM EDT 0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 11:56 PM EDT 2.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:16 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:35 AM EDT 2.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:28 PM EDT 0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 11:56 PM EDT 2.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Portland, Connecticut, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.3 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
Rocky Hill
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:16 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:28 PM EDT 2.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:44 PM EDT 0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:16 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:28 PM EDT 2.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:08 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:44 PM EDT 0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Rocky Hill, Connecticut, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.5 |
| 1 am |
| 2.4 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0 |
| 8 am |
| 0 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Upton, NY,
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