Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 5:42PM Sunday March 7, 2021 9:18 PM EST (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:35AMMoonset 12:38PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 717 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed and Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu and Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Quiet weather for coastal waters as high pressure builds in across the region. We Monitor a weak front moves across the region Monday night into Tuesday, followed by additional high pressure for midweek. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 072350 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 650 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry and quiet weather persists across much of the region into the middle of the week. Isolated snow showers possible late tonight into early Monday across the central to outer Cape. Seasonable temperatures on Monday, but will have a significant warm up for mid to late in the week. A pair of warm front could bring light precipitation Monday night into early Tuesday, as well as Tuesday night into Wednesday. The greater risk of precipitation is on Friday with a cold front, which will return temperatures to more seasonable levels towards next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. 650 PM Update .

Quiet weather prevails across southern New England. Just before 7pm temperatures are still in the upper 20s and low 30s across all of southern New England and we are under mostly clear sky.

For this update we didn't have to make any changes as the forecast is still in good shape. For more details read the previous discussion below.

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Highlights

* Dry and quiet weather for much of southern New England tonight. Only exception is across central-outer Cape where an isolated snow shower cannot be ruled out late tonight.

Cyclonic flow across southern New England to start. A shortwave trough will dig from Quebec this evening into southern New England by late tonight. Behind the trough, a ridge axis extends from the TN Valley to Hudson Bay. This will build further east overnight. High pressure will remain planted over the Mid Atlantic and extend into the eastern Great Lakes.

High pressure will nudge into southern New England and bring dry and quiet weather for the vast majority of the region. The only exception is across the central to outer Cape where the combination of the shortwave digging in and some low level convergence could be enough to generate isolated snow showers. Have leaned toward the latest NAMNest, ARW and NMM guidance, but capped things at slight chance PoPs given the amount of low level moisture available. There is roughly 0.25 inch PWATs, which is toward the 25th percentile of moisture for this time of year per SPC sounding climatology.

Winds will be light with mostly clear skies across southern New England. This should result in fairly strong radiational cooling. Went with the 20th percentile of guidance for tonight as the 25th worked pretty well yesterday. If winds completely decouple then temperatures will need to be lowered further. Lows range from the teens across the interior to the low to mid 20s across the coastal plain. The higher elevations will see some readings in the single digits.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Highlights

* Dry and quiet weather persists on Monday. Only exception is earlier in the day where an isolated snow shower cannot be ruled out for the central to outer Cape.

* Increasing clouds Monday night with a slight chance of snow showers as a warm front lifts through.

Ridge axis from the OH/TN Valley into western Quebec early on Monday builds eastward by Monday evening. The ridge builds into Nova Scotia/New Brunswick by late Monday night. Behind the ridge a shortwave trough digs from eastern Ontario Monday evening into southern Quebec/northern New England by Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into southern New England from the Southeastern US through Monday. The high weakens a bit over our area Monday night into Tuesday and this allow a warm front to lift into and through the region.

Monday .

The shortwave trough mentioned in the near-term section lifts offshore during the morning. An isolated snow shower or two is possible across the central to outer Cape as this wave pushes through. However, for much of the region with high pressure in control will see dry and quiet weather. Winds aloft shift to the west and advect in milder air. At 925 hPa will have roughly 0 to -5 degree Celsius air move in by the afternoon. This will moderate temperatures toward seasonable readings for this time of year with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Monday night .

Increasing cloud cover as a warm front lifts into and through the region. Low level flow becomes more SSW, which will advect in more moisture. Should see an influx of PWATs of around 0.5 inches as the front moves in, which is slightly higher than average for this time of year for CHH per SPC sounding climatology. Given the forcing present with the front lifting in have gone with slight chance to chance PoPs. Best opportunity for precipitation is across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires as there is speed convergence present for a longer duration at 850 hPa. Thermal profiles show that precipitation type will be in the form of snow, but cannot completely rule out some spotty freezing drizzle.

Expecting a strengthening low level jet to slide in from the west as the front moves in. This will result in gusty winds developing late across the higher terrain and coastal plain. Given the cloudiness and mechanical mixing have gone with the 50th percentile of guidance for low temperatures. Lows will generally be in the 20s with some 30 degree readings along the coastal plain.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Highlights .

* Significant warm up this week, with peak of warmth on Wednesday and Thursday away from the immediate coast * Slight chance for some light precipitation early Tuesday. Better chance for some scattered showers with the cold front Friday * Turning noticeably colder next weekend.

Not much change to this portion of the forecast. Still expecting a sharp mid level trough to be replaced by a ridge during the middle of this week. Have at least moderate confidence in the pattern into Friday. Model solutions diverge more significantly late this week into next weekend, especially with the handling of a pair of shortwaves moving off the Pacific coast. How these shortwaves interact and evolve the flow structure over the western half of the lower 48 will have implications for our forecast, mainly with timing. GFS solution looks to be too progressive again, so leaned more with the slower ECMWF/CMC camp.

Expecting temperatures to rise more significantly most of the upcoming week, especially behind a warm front Wednesday into Thursday. As is typical in the Spring, this will be mainly for areas away from the immediate influence of the ocean. Expecting temperatures well above normal for early to mid March. Colder air should eventually make a return, the question is how fast. Thinking a cold front will be delayed until sometime Friday night into Saturday. It is possible this colder air could be delayed even further with a strong high pressure to the south. Something that will need to be resolved with later forecasts.

Dry weather prevails most of this week. Still only seeing a couple of opportunities for some showers. First with a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The second will be in the warm sector Thursday night into Friday until a cold front moves through. The warm front still looks to be moisture- starved, so really only expecting some clouds. The majority of the lift and moisture transport should be well to our northwest. Our region should have better lift and humidity before the cold front. Even then, it is not expected to be a tremendous risk. Can see a scenario where some showers may linger into Saturday, should this cold front be held up near our region. Do not have much confidence in those details this far out in time.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . High confidence

VFR with NW winds generally 5 kts or less. Could see a few isolated snow showers across the Outer Cape late. If a shower passes through cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR.

Monday . High confidence

VFR with light NW winds to start. Will see winds shift to the SW during the afternoon. Speeds will be between 5-10 kts. Still could have an isolated snow shower across the Outer Cape earlier in the day. If a shower passes over a terminal cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR.

Monday night . High confidence

VFR with SW/S winds at 5-15 kts and gusts of 15-25 kts. Highest speeds over the higher terrain, Cape Cod and the Islands as a warm front lifts through. This could bring a few light snow showers and localized MVFR.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

MARINE. High confidence.

Labrador low pressure moves off to the east today. Midwest high pressure builds over the waters tonight and Monday. Expect northwest wind 10 to 15 kt today, becoming light variable tonight, then trending from southwest 5 to 10 kt during Monday. Seas 1 to 3 feet through the period.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain showers.

CLIMATE. Taste of spring is in the forecast for our second half this upcoming work week for southern New England. As of now, the warmest day is expected to be Thursday, with many areas climbing into the lower and middle 60s away from the immediate coast. Plus, overnight lows Thursday night into Friday morning forecast to only drop into the upper 40s and low 50s. For those at home keeping count, those temperatures are running about 20 degrees above the climatological normals for mid March.

Out of our four climate locations (BOS, PVD, ORH, BDL), Boston appears to have the best chance of tying or exceeding the daily record high of 67F, which was set in 1990. Our forecast high for Thursday in Boston currently is 66F. Additionally, Friday morning we are forecasting a low of 51F, possibly setting a daily record for the highest minimum temperature. The only concern as of now would be how quickly we cool off Friday night. If we fall below 46F before midnight we are out of luck. Stay tuned!

For the rest of our climate locations, at this time we are not expecting any further daily high records to be broken.

Below is a brief breakdown of the forecast high/record high and year.

Boston: Forecast 66F / Record 67F (1990)

Hartford: Forecast 65F/ Record 75F (1977)

Providence: Forecast 65F / Record 71F (1990)

Worcester: Forecast 62F / Record 66F (1977)

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/BL NEAR TERM . BL/Gaucher SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . Belk AVIATION . Belk/BL/Gaucher MARINE . Belk/BL CLIMATE . Gaucher


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi49 min 31°F 14°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi49 min 31°F 37°F1027 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi49 min Calm G 1 32°F 1026.9 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 12 mi19 min NNW 6 G 6 1027.7 hPa (+1.4)
PRUR1 13 mi49 min 31°F 9°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi49 min W 1.9 G 1.9 32°F 37°F1026.7 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi49 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 31°F 1027.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi94 min NNW 1.9 30°F 1027 hPa9°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi49 min W 4.1 G 4.1 32°F 37°F1026.9 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi49 min WNW 5.1 G 6 33°F 38°F1026.5 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi49 min 29°F 36°F1026.7 hPa
PVDR1 22 mi49 min NW 5.1 G 7 32°F 1027.1 hPa10°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi49 min NNE 6 G 8 33°F 35°F1027.1 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi94 min Calm 27°F 1026 hPa17°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi29 min S 1.9 G 3.9 36°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi23 min 41°F2 ft
44090 43 mi23 min 37°F1 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair24°F17°F75%1026.7 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair25°F16°F69%1026.6 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI19 mi3.5 hrsN 810.00 miClear34°F10°F38%1025.1 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi28 minNNW 410.00 miFair31°F10°F42%1026.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair21°F13°F71%1026.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWB

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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63W7--CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
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Hix Bridge
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Sun -- 02:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:04 AM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:20 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:38 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:36 PM EST     2.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:13 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.21.92.52.82.72.21.610.60.30.20.30.511.62.12.221.510.50.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:40 AM EST     1.66 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:17 AM EST     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:18 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:38 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:16 PM EST     2.00 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:34 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:42 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:54 PM EST     -2.07 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:24 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61-0.3-1.6-2.3-2.2-1.5-0.8-0.20.411.621.80.8-0.6-1.7-2.1-1.8-1.2-0.7-0.20.3

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