Wednesday, July8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Popponesset Island, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:19PM Wednesday July 8, 2020 4:43 AM EDT (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:58PMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 416 Am Edt Wed Jul 8 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this afternoon...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night through Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Am Edt Wed Jul 8 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will slowly settle over the waters late today. Strengthening low pressure will move up along the carolina coast late Thursday and passing near cape cod on Saturday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Popponesset Island, MA
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location: 41.59, -70.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 080808 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 408 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Summer-like warmth and humidity takes control of our weather today and persists through the weekend. A few showers/thunderstorms will be possible each day with some heavy downpours, but much of this time will also feature dry weather especially on Thursday when heat and humidity peak. A stronger system late Friday into Saturday brings heavy rain and potential flooding issues.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

405 AM Update .

* A few strong-severe t-storms possible between 4 and 10 PM across northern MA and interior SNE with a low risk of flash flooding

Low clouds along with patches of fog were impacting the region early this morning. This a result of deep low level moisture making its return into southern New England. A southwest LLJ has also allowed for some widely scattered showers to develop early this morning, mainly across RI/SE MA. A few showers are possible just about anywhere into mid morning, but dry weather will dominate.

The strong July sun angle coupled with southwest flow should allow for partial sunshine to develop later this morning and especially this afternoon. 925T on the order of 19C to 22C should yield afternoon high temps in the middle to upper 80s across many locations. The bigger issue though will be dewpoints near 70 resulting in quite humid conditions. This will allow for heat indices to reach the lower 90s in some locations.

The main concern will revolve around the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms later today into this evening. Diurnal heating coupled with near 70 dewpoints will generate 1-2K J/KG of Cape this afternoon. Meanwhile, shortwave energy across northern New England will drop down in NW flow aloft. This combined with the instability should trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. High resolution CAMs seem to be struggling with timing issues. While a few isolated t-storms are certainly possible by early afternoon, feel the main risk will be roughly from 4 to 10 PM this evening across northern MA and parts of interior southern New England when better forcing arrives. That being said, the limiting factor will be marginal wind fields with effective shear only 25 to 30 knots. The higher risk may be to our north where effective shear will be higher. Nonetheless, instability and shear are certainly enough for a few strong to severe thunderstorms and northwest flow aloft events can sometimes over achieve a bit.

So in a nutshell, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible roughly between 4 and 10 PM. Main risk appears to be northern MA and into parts of interior southern New England, where the HREF and other high resolution guidance indicates best 2-5KM updraft helicity values. The main risk will be locally strong to damaging straight line wind gusts with modest low level lapse rates.

Lastly, there is a low probability for localized flash flooding. Pwats around 1.75 inches will result in torrential rainfall with the strongest t-storms. While they will be moving southeast, certainly could see localized 2"+ rainfall amounts in 45 minutes. If this falls over a vulnerable area localized flash flooding would be possible.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/.

* Hot/Humid on Thu with heat indices in the middle to upper 90s

Tonight .

Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this evening should weaken as they attempt to enter RI/SE MA and out run the main dynamics. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is anticipated later tonight but it will remain muggy. Low temps will only drop into the upper 60s to near 70 with the high dewpoints in place. Patchy dense fog may also develop overnight especially in the typically prone locations that receive rainfall today.

Thursday .

Upper level ridging overhead will result in hot and humid weather on Thursday. 925T between +22C and +24C should yield high temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Dewpoints near 70 will result in afternoon heat index values in the middle to upper 90s in many locations. Mainly dry weather is anticipated on Thursday given upper level ridging overhead and lack of synoptic scale forcing. While an isolated spot shower/t-storm is possible given modest instability, the vast majority of the region will remain dry. Therefore, just carried slight chance pops.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.

Highlights .

* Temps cool a bit but humidity remains elevated

* Widespread, heavy rain at times around late Friday/Saturday

* Unsettled weather continues Sunday into next week but looking drier for the new workweek

Details .

The oppressive humidity is here to stay, with no truly dry air in the forecast through the end of the forecast period. At the same time temperatures remain near or above normal through early next week. Good news, though, as we'll catch a relative break in the heat Friday and Saturday as mid and upper level cloudcover overspreading southern New England Friday will help keep temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s (5-10 degrees cooler than Thursday).

This relief in the heat, though, comes as a coastal low slides up from the coast of the Carolinas. This system, which is currently nothing more than a disorganized area of showers over the southeast, has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation from the National Hurricane Center. Regardless of classification, though, this system will almost certainly bring a period of very heavy rain and some thunderstorms to southern New England. The extremely moist slug of air that moves overhead through the day on Friday into Saturday morning contains PWATs potentially surpassing 2.5". If realized this would near or surpass the July record for Chatham observations. Currently we're not certain when the heaviest period of rain and potential flooding issues will be. 00Z EC guidance has slowed the system down significantly bringing the heavier rain in Saturday while the GFS is much quicker, more of a Friday/Friday night thing. At this point what we know is that with this kind of moisture plume someone is going to get a lot of rain. Where and when that is will have to be settled in the coming days.

This, of course, lowers confidence in the Sunday-Tuesday forecast period quite a bit, since it will depend on how the system plays out. Unsettled weather remains likely, though, as another lobe of energy rotates around the trough with a sfc disturbance on Sunday.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z Update .

Today . Moderate confidence.

Through 12z this morning IFR-LIFR conditions dominate NW of the BOS to PVD corridor. Southeast of this line mainly MVFR conditions expected. A few spot showers are possible with some patchy drizzle across the interior early this morning. Otherwise, improvement to VFR conditions should occur in most locations by afternoon. SW winds may gust to between 20 and 25 knots along the coastal plain during the afternoon. The main concern will then turn to the risk for a few strong t-storms with the main focus across northern MA and into parts of interior southern New England . roughly in the 20z to 02z time frame. However, an isolated t-storm can not be ruled out a few hours earlier.

Tonight . Moderate confidence.

The bulk of the convection should come to an end by 02z. MVFR- IFR conditions should develop tonight south of the Pike with the lowest conditions most likely across the Cape/Islands. VFR conditions may persist in many locations north of the MA turnpike, but localized IFR-LIFR conditions possible in patchy dense ground fog late. SSW winds of 5 to 15 knots.

Thursday . High confidence.

Mainly VFR conditions anticipated for most of the day. The exception might be near the southeast New England coast, where lower clouds may flirt with this region at times. Dry weather dominates, but an isolated spot shower/t-storm can not be ruled out. S winds of 5 to 15 knots.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF. Greatest risk for a t-storm is between 20z and 02z.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF. Greatest risk for a t-storm is between 20z and 02z.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA likely, chance TSRA.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

MARINE.

Today . High confidence. SW winds of 10 to 15 knots may gust to around 25 knots this afternoon along the nearshore southeast New England coastal waters. This a result of strong heating/mixing over the land. Opted to issue a SCA for this afternoon for gusty nearshore winds/choppy seas. Also, a few strong t-storms are possible late this afternoon/early evening across our northeast MA adjacent waters.

Tonight . High confidence. Winds/seas should remain below SCA thresholds. S-SW winds of 10 to 15 knots and some fog may develop across the southern waters with high dewpoint air advecting over the ocean.

Thursday . High confidence. High pressure east of our waters will generate southerly flow of 5 to 15 knots. Gradient will be weak enough to keeps winds/seas below SCA thresholds.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>234.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/BW NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . Frank/BW MARINE . Frank/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 3 mi118 min SSE 1.9 69°F 1019 hPa67°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 12 mi183 min S 18 G 21 68°F 71°F1018.1 hPa65°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 12 mi55 min 69°F 69°F1018.3 hPa
44090 19 mi46 min 67°F1 ft
CHTM3 28 mi175 min S 7 G 9.9 63°F 1019.2 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi55 min S 6 G 8.9 67°F 72°F1019 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 33 mi43 min S 14 G 14 1018.9 hPa (-0.8)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 38 mi55 min 69°F 74°F1018.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi55 min S 7 G 8.9 69°F 1018.3 hPa
FRXM3 39 mi55 min 69°F 67°F
PRUR1 45 mi55 min 69°F 69°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 46 mi173 min SSE 9.7 G 12 64°F 3 ft1019 hPa61°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi55 min SSW 6 G 12 69°F 63°F1018.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 47 mi118 min S 1 69°F 1019 hPa67°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 47 mi55 min SW 4.1 G 7 69°F 1018.7 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 48 mi55 min 69°F 73°F1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA6 mi58 minS 11 G 1710.00 miLight Rain68°F50°F53%1018.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA11 mi47 minS 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast73°F66°F79%1018.1 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi50 minS 610.00 miOvercast68°F64°F90%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW5CalmS8NE5NE5NE5NE5NE8NE10
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2 days agoSW5S5S5SW8SW7SW9SW7SW8SW8S5S5S5S5S8S8S8S8--SW7SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Poponesset Island, Poponesset Bay, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Poponesset Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:57 AM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:10 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:37 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:20 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.522.52.62.421.40.80.2-0.100.40.81.41.92.22.321.61.10.50.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:08 AM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:08 AM EDT     -4.71 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:22 AM EDT     0.20 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:32 AM EDT     4.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.04 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:38 PM EDT     -4.25 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:42 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:40 PM EDT     4.00 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.1-3-4.3-4.7-4.5-3.6-22.53.84.44.443-0.5-3.2-4.1-4.2-3.7-2.51.63.23.943.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.