Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mashpee Neck, MA

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:28PM Sunday August 25, 2019 7:17 PM EDT (23:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:31AMMoonset 3:46PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 327 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt this evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of sprinkles.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of sprinkles.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed and Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu through Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 327 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Northeast winds will be gradually shifting to the east by midweek. A tropical depression may form off the coast of florida early next week. This system may track close enough to affect the coastal waters with elevated seas by mid week. A cold front will approach the waters from the west on Thursday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mashpee Neck, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 251956
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
356 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
Scattered to broken low clouds continue into this evening, then
dissipate into Monday as drier, more seasonable conditions
develop through midweek. Possible showers sometime Wednesday
into Thursday ahead of a cold front. Still keeping an eye on the
track of a potential tropical system offshore late this week,
which could produce high surf and dangerous rip currents along
the immediate shoreline.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
2 pm update...

cool summer day. At this point the boundary layer with the late
summer Sun has mixed upwards of 3-5 kft agl and thus entrained
drier air which is working S round high pressure situated over n
new england into S canada. The challenge is along the E SE shore
with the onshore flow component off the cool, moist maritimes.

And with the prevailing low-level flow becoming more E with time
we're seeing that broken to overcast lower cloud deck push further
w into the interior. So some headaches with the temperatures and
cloud cover, however feel the consensus of near-term high-res
guidance including the nbm has a good handle on it. Wherever
there is more of a N component of interior flow will see more
scattered cloud decks, whereas with ocean-onshore flow clouds
will be more broken to overcast.

Winds have come up with boundary layer mixing with upwards of 30
mph wind gusts being observed across the CAPE and islands. Will
see this wind persist into early evening and then taper slightly.

Should remain breezy along the E SE shoreline into the overnight
hours. More below.

Tonight...

clouds versus fog. High pressure and drier air squeezes S as evident
in latest rap forecast guidance. Column drying, its parent inversion
lowering towards the surface down to h975 to 950, N to s, moisture
is trapped beneath which the boundary layer remains destabilized by
the cool E NE onshore flow. Multiple factors to this forecast: 1.)
depth of the dry-inversion, and 2.) direction of surface-h95 winds.

Determines whether low clouds or possible dense fog.

The 12z caribou, me an indication of outcomes where a dry-inversion
is lower. Looking upstream at overnight observations, dry advection
took place with surface dewpoints lowering despite light winds. Only
a few spots reported dense fog given a decoupled boundary layer. For
us, not much href support, signals of dense fog showing up for the
worcester, ma region into northeast ct. Href overall points towards
an E steering wind of low clouds over a good chunk of S new england,
especially se, additional issues along e-slopes of higher terrain.

Nbm and consensus of high-res guidance supports a cloudy solution as
well.

If clouds become more widespread, broken to overcast overnight, as
perhaps dewpoints slip with the building presence of high pressure
and a drying column aloft, then leaning with mild lows, shouldn't
see much in the way of dense fog say isolated wherever clearing is
allowed to proceed, higher confidence wherever it rained earlier
today. Will hint again at low clouds along e-slopes of high terrain.

Clouds win.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
2 pm update...

Monday...

looking to clear out. A continued long fetch off across the gulf of
me, two things: 1.) sea-surface temperatures have lowered a bit with
the turbidity and upwelling of the waters, and 2.) dry air advection
will be quite strong and deeper within the column compared to today
and sinking. So an expectation that low clouds will linger across
new england during the morning hours, gradually dissipating S W with
drier, subsiding pushing s. But not ruling out scattered to broken
cloud decks given boundary layer mixing of onshore cool, moist air.

Expect cloudy issues to linger especially s-coastal new england but
lesser drizzle issues. Late summer Sun still strong while mixing out
to h85 undergoing cold air advection, around +8c, another day of 70s
throughout the interior while 60s along the E SE shore.

Monday night...

becoming clear. Daytime heating concludes, dry air and high pressure
in place, looking at the boundary layer to decouple and light winds
to prevail over most of S new england albeit the southeast. Warm air
advection aloft, moisture is trapped beneath the dry inversion just
above the surface. Dense fog not out of the question especially in
areas of onshore flow and or higher dewpoints (notably earlier in
the day with the cross-over threshold). Lean with cooler guidance
and evaluate fog based on winds (below 3 mph) along with temperature-
dewpoint thresholds of 2 degrees or less. This as a first guess, fog
seemingly will be more prevalent

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Highlights...

* temperatures will remain below normal Tuesday, then will
moderate to near and above normal by late this week
* scattered showers will move across our region sometime late
Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a cold front.

Details...

Tuesday...

high pressure will remain across the region, or at least close
by. Dry weather and below normal temperatures expected to
continue. Onshore winds will keep the immediate coastal areas
even cooler.

Wednesday through Friday...

the biggest question remaining to be answered will be how close
a potential tropical system comes to southern new england during
this time. Latest model guidance has trended ever so slightly
west, but still well within the margin of error for a forecast
this far out. Still expecting a cold front to slowly approach
from the west late Wednesday into Thursday. At this point,
expecting scattered showers with the cold front. Instability is
too poor to warrant a mention of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Rainfall chances would be significantly higher if the ocean low
pressure comes even closer to our region. Time will tell. The
most likely impact from this coastal system would be a period
of rough surf along ocean-exposed beaches.

There may be another front that might approach late this week,
but timing is very much in question.

Near to above normal temperatures should prevail during this
period.

Saturday and Sunday...

high pressure should be in control. Current forecast is for dry
weather. Above normal temperatures Saturday, with below normal
temperatures Sunday as this high pressure moves in.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

18z update...

rest of today...

sct-bkn low-endVFR over most of the terminals. MVFR lingering
at 020 over e-coastal and SE ma terminals, on and off with the
low-endVFR cigs. E NE winds 10 to 15 kts sustained, strongest
along the E SE ma coast with gusts up around 25 kts, as high as
30 kts.

Tonight...

sct-bkn low-endVFR will lower into the overnight hours as E ne
winds persist, light around 5 kts over the interior, around 10
to 15 kts along the shore. Higher confidence of into-morning
MVFR for terminals along and S of the ma-pike, as well as along
the e-slopes of high terrain. Patchy ifr fg possible where skc
prevails in the n-ct river valley of ma.

Monday...

morning sct-bkn MVFR mostly along and S of the ma-pike lifting
and becoming few-sct towards afternoon. E NE winds continue
around 10 to 15 kts with strongest winds along the SE coast with
gusts up to 20 kts.

Monday night...

few-sct CIGS may linger perhaps becoming bkn-ovc over southeast
ma, but a greater concern is interior ifr fg. Current confidence
is immediate W of the N W 495 beltway and within sheltered
interior valleys through N ct and W ma. Light winds but a bit
more brisk E NE flow 5-10 kts.

Kbos terminal...

clear out the -dz and hold bkn low-endVFR CIGS around 040. As
we go into evening, sct-bkn CIGS prevail, lowering with time
down to 020 where more sct conditions are favored.

Kbdl terminal...

sct-bkn low-endVFR around 040 into this evening. Can't rule out
MVFR going into Monday morning but will leave it sct for now.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday through Tuesday night:VFR.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Thursday night through Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

E NE winds persist through Tuesday morning that'll contribute to
an E swell and wave heights around 4 to 6 feet. Strong gusts
presently will taper slightly overnight and then pick back up
Monday with 20 to 25 kts. As high pressure builds from the n
into midweek will see both winds and seas begin to subside.

Small craft advisory headlines continue for a majority of the
waters.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Monday for anz232>234.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz231-
236-251.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Monday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Monday for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk sipprell
marine... Belk sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 5 mi93 min NW 2.9 66°F 1024 hPa58°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 12 mi28 min ENE 19 G 23 67°F 73°F3 ft60°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi48 min 65°F 72°F1024.2 hPa
44090 17 mi48 min 66°F2 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi48 min NE 15 G 21 66°F 73°F1023.8 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi78 min NNE 18 G 20 64°F 1024.7 hPa (+0.0)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi48 min NNE 12 G 14 67°F 1025 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi48 min 65°F 76°F1025.4 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi54 min 65°F 55°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 44 mi28 min NE 18 G 19 63°F 6 ft1024.5 hPa (-1.1)57°F
PRUR1 46 mi48 min 65°F 55°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi93 min NE 12 67°F 1025 hPa58°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi48 min NE 11 G 17 65°F 65°F1024.6 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi48 min ENE 12 G 14 65°F 1025.4 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi48 min NNE 13 G 16 64°F 72°F1025.3 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA6 mi93 minNNE 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast64°F57°F78%1024.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA10 mi82 minNNE 1110.00 miOvercast67°F57°F73%1024.1 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA17 mi85 minNNE 1010.00 miOvercast66°F57°F73%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE7NE9NE8NE8NE7NE7NE7NE10NE10NE7--NE10E11
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1 day ago--CalmN5N5N5N5N5--N5N5N6N6N6NE10--NE14NE12NE12
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2 days agoW10W8W8W8W6W6NW5----N4N4N4N4N6N11NW4NW4NW5N5N5N5N5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Cotuit Highlands
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:40 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:21 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:54 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:38 PM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.30.50.91.31.722.22.21.81.40.90.50.40.611.41.82.22.52.52.31.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:54 AM EDT     3.65 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:26 AM EDT     -3.75 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:22 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:19 PM EDT     3.55 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:47 PM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:52 PM EDT     -3.99 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:56 PM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.43.63.42.81.8-1.7-3.1-3.7-3.6-3-1.623.13.53.432.1-1.2-2.9-3.7-4-3.6-2.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.