Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mashpee Neck, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:49PM Sunday January 26, 2020 5:17 PM EST (22:17 UTC) Moonrise 9:17AMMoonset 7:36PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 317 Pm Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night through Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu through Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 317 Pm Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will move into the maritimes Mon and Tue. High pres builds over eastern canada Wed, then into northern new eng Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mashpee Neck, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 262028 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 328 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Variably cloudy and dry weather with continued mild temperatures through Monday. More seasonable temperatures and continued dry weather for the remainder of the workweek. There is the potential for a storm to impact the region, though it remains far from a certainty at this point.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Broad upper low/cyclonic flow and an associated cool pocket of air aloft prevails across much of New England this afternoon, leading to scattered to broken stratocu having filled in after an initial period of clearing earlier this morning. While the primary upper low is centered over the northern Adirondacks in northern NY, another 500 mb shortwave trough is evident in GOES water vapor imagery pinwheeling through the U.P. of Michigan as of early this afternoon; this latter feature will tend to influence the forecast overnight tonight.

Stratocu should begin to scatter and dissipate early this evening as boundary layer becomes more stable. This should allow for some radiational cooling, tempered to an extent by the continued modest west winds. For after midnight, expecting an increase in clouds across the interior into the coastal plain as the shortwave trough and 500 mb vort max now over northern MI crosses through western New England. The WRF-based CAMs generate either flurries or light snow showers between 06-12z Monday for the Berkshires and into northern MA, and a few bring these all the way to the coast; am skeptical these make it as far as the east coast, though could be possible in the Berkshires into northern Worcester County. Large-scale lift and moisture in the snow growth layer isn't impressive, and thus any flurries or snow showers shouldn't amount to much.

Lows tonight should fall back into the upper 20s to freezing across a large part of the interior, with low to mid 30s along the eastern and southern coasts, Cape Cod and the Islands.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Monday:

Cyclonic flow aloft remains in place across the region to open Monday. Should begin Monday with a considerable amount of clouds, and models indicate another shortwave (now located over western Quebec) circling the broader upper low. This feature looks to move across Southern New England during the late-morning to mid-afternoon hrs. Thus we should see more clouds than sun across the interior, if not outright overcast. May even see some flurries or sprinkles at times, though a fair amount of dry air below cloud base/inverted-V shown in BUFKIT soundings could mean virga. Less clouds across the Cape. This mid-level feature also brings in some colder air behind it, with 925 mb temps -1 to -4C by early evening. West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph should begin to veer to WNW/NW late. Highs should be cooler than today, with the thinking that most of the area will see more clouds, with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to lower to mid 40s, which is still above- normal for the time of year.

Monday Night:

Sfc trough passes through the southern/eastern coastal waters early Monday night, with NW winds around 10-15 mph and better cold advection for the overnight. 925 mb temps in this cold advection fall to around -3 to -7C per the GFS areawide, with partly to mostly cloudy skies for the overnight (greatest cloud coverage across the Berkshires/northern MA, less towards SE MA, RI and the Cape). Lows mid-upper 20s for most, with lows closer to freezing near the coasts.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Highlights .

* Generally dry with near-slightly above normal temps Tue through Fri

* Potential storm next weekend, but uncertainty is high

Details .

Tuesday through Friday .

Generally dry and tranquil weather will continue Tuesday through Friday with west to northwest flow aloft. The exception might be across Cape Cod on Tue into Tue night when a cold front/shortwave may result in a period of ocean enhanced scattered light snow showers/flurries. High temps will mainly be in the upper 30s to the lower 40s most of the time. It probably will be a few degrees colder than that on Thu as high pressure over Quebec allows a shot of briefly colder weather.

Next Weekend .

A high degree of uncertainty continues in regards to the potential for a storm sometime next weekend. The long range guidance and their ensembles continue to indicate an extreme spread in solutions. These range from a weak frontal wave passing well out to sea with basically dry weather prevailing, to a strong storm with heavy precipitation. The reason for this is timing/strength of northern and southern stream energy and whether there is phasing. Whether or not a strong storm develops remains uncertain given this potential event is 6-7 days out in the model world. If this storm comes to fruition, the antecedent airmass out ahead of it is not that cold so Ptype would also be uncertain.

All we can say right now is there is the potential for a storm next weekend, but it is not a certainty at this point and will need to see trends over the next few days. In addition, Ptype would also be uncertain and dependent on the track of the potential storm. It is certainly something will need to watch though in the coming days.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

21Z TAF Update:

Short Term . High confidence.

Rest of Today:

VFR, with SCT-BKN diurnal stratocu. These clouds should begin to dissipate by early evening. W winds 8-14 kt, gusts up to 22 kt.

Tonight:

VFR with sct-bkn clouds AOA 6kft, but patchy MVFR and isold -shsn possible over Berkshires. W winds 8-12 kt.

Monday:

SCT-OVC VFR ceilings with bases AOA 4-5kft. Scattered flurries or sprinkles in the interior late-AM to mid-aftn associated with the passage of a disturbance aloft. W winds around 7-10 kt (occasional gusts to 20 kt), with a slight veer to WNW/NW late in the day west of BOS/PVD.

Monday Night:

VFR with clearing skies. W to NW winds 8-12 kt.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR.

MARINE. Short Term /through Monday/ . High confidence.

Small craft advisories remain in effect thru Monday for most near and offshore waters. West winds will gust to near or just over 25 kt through Monday as cooler air blows over the waters. Slight wind shift to WNW/NW Monday night as a disturbance aloft moves across the waters.

While highest seas expected this afternoon into tonight (5-7'), wave heights over 5' to remain through Monday, becoming longer in period as time progresses.

Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/ .

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ235-237-250- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ251.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Loconto NEAR TERM . Loconto SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Frank/Loconto MARINE . Frank/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 5 mi93 min SW 4.1 44°F 1005 hPa36°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 12 mi38 min 2 ft
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi48 min 42°F 39°F1005.5 hPa
44090 17 mi18 min 39°F2 ft
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi48 min WSW 7 G 12 42°F 39°F1005.5 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi78 min WSW 24 G 25 42°F 1005.4 hPa (-0.4)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi48 min WNW 14 G 19 45°F 1005.4 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi48 min 44°F 40°F1005.7 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi48 min 45°F 33°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 44 mi28 min W 14 G 18 44°F 6 ft1003.9 hPa (+0.7)33°F
PRUR1 46 mi48 min 46°F 29°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi93 min WNW 8 46°F 1005 hPa29°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi48 min WSW 8.9 G 11 44°F 38°F1005.4 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi48 min NW 6 G 9.9 45°F 1006.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi48 min WNW 14 G 18 43°F 42°F1005.5 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA6 mi22 minWSW 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast41°F35°F81%1005.1 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA10 mi22 minSW 810.00 miOvercast42°F34°F73%1004.6 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA17 mi25 minWSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F33°F68%1005.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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SE20--SW10W15W15W15W15W10W10W12W10W11W12W12W13W14W17
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1 day agoNE5NE5NE5NE5E5E5E8E8E8NE7NE10NE10E5E10E10E10
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2 days agoSW5CalmSW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmN4NE3--E5E5E5NE6NE6NE6E9NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Cotuit Highlands
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:18 AM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:39 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:23 PM EST     2.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:36 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:14 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.42.321.40.80.30.20.40.81.41.92.42.72.62.31.710.3-0.100.30.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:07 AM EST     -4.27 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:13 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EST     4.08 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:23 AM EST     -0.10 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:20 PM EST     -4.65 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:36 PM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:36 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:46 PM EST     4.38 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:08 PM EST     -0.21 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.8-4.3-4-3.2-1.42.63.74.143.41.9-2.5-4-4.6-4.5-3.8-2.423.64.24.44.13.21.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.