Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mashpee Neck, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 7:53PM Friday August 7, 2020 9:11 PM EDT (01:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 716 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night through Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue through Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak weather disturbance moves across the region late tonight and Saturday, bringing a chance for showers or Thunderstorms. Otherwise high pressure builds across the waters for the weekend and early next week. Scattered Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front may approach the coasts mid week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mashpee Neck, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 072244 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 644 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbance will move across the region late tonight and Saturday bringing a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, though most of the region will remain dry. Heat and humidity will return next week with scattered showers or thunderstorms, especially Wednesday and Thursday as a slow moving cold front crosses the region. Less humid weather should follow on Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. 645 PM Update:

Forecast is on track. Watching convection upstream, especially activity heading E from NJ, which is ahead of upper trough. Models agree on bringing trough through SNE tonight but have a wide variety of solutions as to what happens with that upstream convection. 18z GFS remains most aggressive in bringing it through region, and 18z NAM has come on board to some degree, but CAMs show much of this weakening and not having an impact.

Have to think truth lies somewhere in between so will continue with 30-40% PoPs, though it's certainly possible we see the "SNE 7-10 split" with most of activity passing to our south and some scattered activity passing to our north. Latest mesoanalysis shows better instability and deeper moisture to our south, so that's certainly a possibility, so that's why we're not going too high with PoPs tonight.

Meanwhile, onshore flow has led to low clouds and patchy dense fog on Nantucket. Not expecting this to make much more progress toward coast but patchy fog is certainly possible on Vineyard and Cape Cod.

Forecast lows in 60s look good.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. 200 pm Update .

The upper level trough will be moving across the region tomorrow, and just be getting to the coast about 18z. With the cold pool aloft and some daytime heating, this should result in low level instability increasing. Model blends suggest CAPE values should reach 300-600 J/kg by mid day. However with the trough axis moving east of the region during the peak heating of the afternoon and some mid-level warming coming in, that would limit the overall convective threat. Hi-res models also suggest not too much in the way of shower/t-storms will occur tomorrow, but what does happen would be contained to the interior areas. Quite possible they will be a little more terrain driven or along a sea breeze boundary (which should push rather far inland due to a synoptic southeast flow). General 30% PoPs should do it. Highs tomorrow should rise into the 80s inland, with 70s closer to the coast thanks to sea breezes.

With ridging aloft developing for Saturday night, expect a dry night across the region. Stuck with the model blend, and have painted in lows in the 60s area wide. Dewpoints on the borderline of slightly muggy.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Highlights .

* Heat/humidity returns - possible heat wave Mon-Wed * Scattered storms - especially Wed-Thu

Return to hot and humid weather appears to be in cards next week as upper ridge builds across southern 2/3 of country and main band of westerlies shifts into northern tier of states and southern Canada. Dry pattern should also prevail with only scattered, hit or miss showers/storms next week. Models/ensembles show focus for activity along sea breeze fronts Mon/Tue, then better chances for more of SNE Wed-Thu as a slow moving cold front crosses region. Does look like a break in heat/humidity behind front Friday.

Following NBM guidance which seems to have a good handle on overall pattern. Certainly have potential for a heat wave across parts of interior (especially CT Valley, Merrimack Valley, and interior eastern MA) with 3 days of 90+ temps Mon-Wed (perhaps 4 if we can overachieve Sun). Higher dewpoints (70+) seem to hold off until Tue/Wed and it looks borderline for Heat Advisory criteria (consecutive days of heat index 95-99 for at least 2 hours) but something we will watch in the coming days.

Additionally, SW flow prevails most of next week with potential for nighttime and early morning low clouds/fog near South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands, especially ahead of front Wed/Thu. For boating interests on south coastal bays/sounds, this will also result in locally choppy seas each afternoon due to outgoing tides.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update: High confidence, except moderate confidence around Cape Cod and Islands.

LIFR conditions at ACK will persist tonight with light E winds. May see some improvement later tonight if showers moving E from NYC area manage to reach SE New England, but any improvement would be brief.

Otherwise expecting VFR ceilings tonight, with MVFR ceilings along immediate south coast and near Berkshires along with scattered showers and isolated storms. Conditions improve Sat morning to VFR, before possibility of scattered PM showers or a thunderstorm in the afternoon, although coverage will be limited. VFR Sat night. Light E/SE winds expected.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/ .

Sunday: VFR. Isolated SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE. 200 PM Update .

Weak high pressure to the east and weak low pressure to our south will combine to keep overall winds on the light side, favoring east to southeast, through Saturday. High pressure will start to strengthen Saturday night. Not expecting wind/sea conditions to exceed small craft advisory thresholds.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/ .

Sunday through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JWD/Nash NEAR TERM . JWD/Nash SHORT TERM . Nash LONG TERM . JWD AVIATION . JWD/Nash MARINE . JWD/Nash


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 5 mi86 min Calm 73°F 1020 hPa68°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 12 mi41 min E 7.8 G 12 76°F1020.3 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi53 min 73°F 74°F
44090 17 mi44 min 67°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi53 min E 5.1 G 6 68°F 78°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi71 min E 8 G 8.9 1021.4 hPa (+0.4)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi53 min NE 8.9 G 11 76°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi53 min 75°F 78°F
FRXM3 40 mi53 min 75°F 59°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 44 mi81 min E 5.8 G 5.8 67°F 1 ft1021.1 hPa (+0.3)61°F
PRUR1 46 mi53 min 76°F 64°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi86 min E 4.1 74°F 1020 hPa63°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi53 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 67°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi53 min ENE 4.1 G 7 75°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi53 min 74°F 78°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA6 mi75 minENE 510.00 miA Few Clouds72°F64°F78%1020.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA10 mi75 minE 310.00 miOvercast72°F66°F84%1020.3 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA17 mi78 minNE 710.00 miOvercast72°F69°F91%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4N4CalmCalmNE5E6E6E9E11E11E11E8E8E8E5NE5NE5NE5
1 day agoSW8SW8SW8SW8SW8--CalmCalmN5CalmCalmNE7NE7E54S10SE10S10S10S18S8S8SW5SW4
2 days agoSW23
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Tide / Current Tables for Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Cotuit Highlands
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Fri -- 03:32 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:18 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:02 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:33 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.82.32.62.62.31.71.10.40.10.10.40.91.41.92.32.52.31.91.30.70.30.30.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:29 AM EDT     -0.09 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:26 AM EDT     -4.56 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:42 AM EDT     4.25 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:09 PM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:52 PM EDT     -4.21 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:54 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:52 PM EDT     3.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.1-2.3-3.8-4.5-4.5-3.8-2.51.93.44.14.23.93.11.2-2.8-3.9-4.2-3.8-2.80.933.843.7

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.