Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mashpee Neck, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 5:37PM Friday March 5, 2021 3:26 PM EST (20:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:13AMMoonset 10:57AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 116 Pm Est Fri Mar 5 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
This afternoon..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun and Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon through Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Fri Mar 5 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Expect areas of light freezing spray on the waters today through Saturday. High pressure builds over the waters and maintains dry weather through the first half of next week. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mashpee Neck, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 052004 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 304 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather persists through the middle of next week. Colder than normal through the weekend, but then a pattern change toward warmer weather by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/.

305 PM UPDATE .

*** Dry but cold and blustery weather through the weekend ***

Tonight .

Cold vortex over Southeast Quebec remains nearly stationary thru Sat night, with multiple short waves circulating cyclonically thru New England, with each wave providing a reinforcing surge of cold/dry air. The first wave moves across Maine this evening, with increasing cold air advection in its wake into Southern New England. 850 mb temps over MA/RI/CT lowering from -11C this afternoon to -16C late tonight. Thus another cold and blustery night ahead, with lows mainly in the teens, about 5-10 degs below normal. It will feel colder with west winds 5-15 mph providing wind chills in the single digits.

As the cold air advection increases tonight, low level WNW winds become aligned with Lake Superior, Huron and Ontario, providing a long moist fetch into NY State, possibly bleeding over the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills into Southern New England. Not expecting anything more than a few flurries or a brief snow shower. Most of the region should remain dry.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/.

305 PM UPDATE .

Saturday and Sunday .

The cold vortex over Southeast Quebec continues to impact our weather with colder than normal conditions, as 850 mb temps only modify to -13C to -14C Sat. This will only support highs of 30-35, except mid to upper 20s inland, especially the high terrain. Winds not quite as gusty as today, but still WNW winds 10-20 mph will provide wind chills in the 20s.

More clouds than today given long moist fetch of Lake Superior, Huron and Ontario into NY State and Southern New England. HREF and BUFKIT shows diurnal CU/SCU blossoming a bit tomorrow afternoon, especially in the hilly terrain. Can't rule out a brief snow shower/flurry, but most of the region remains dry.

Another very dry day with dew pts in the single digits and air temps 30-35, supporting RHs in the 20-30 percent range. Not quite as extreme as today with RH values in the teens.

Cold Sat night given the lack of airmass change along with very low dew pts. Also with decreasing winds, diurnal clouds eroding, blended in some of the colder MOS guidance to derive mins. Lows once again in the teens.

Airmass modifies slightly Sunday as cold vortex finally ejects eastward out of Southeast Quebec. This combined with more sunshine and less wind should make Sunday more pleasant/tolerable than today or Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Highlights .

* Warming trend begins Monday with highs in the 50s and possibly 60s Tuesday into Thursday away from the immediate coast.

Monday into Thursday .

The new work week looks to feature a transition into a +AO/+NAO/-PNA regime, which is favorable for a more significant and prolonged warm up. In fact, the AO is forecast to go highly positive, which is a strong signal for building warmth. Along with the lack of snow cover away from the interior and downsloping effect from strong southwesterly flow, blended model guidance will likely be a little too cool with the high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lending further confidence to anomalous warmth during this period is that both the NAEFS and ENS Situational Ensemble Awareness Table show heights at all levels and 1000mb temperatures rising to 90th percentile for Tuesday and 97.5th to 99th percentile for Wednesday and Thursday. Given such a strong signal for temperatures to overperform, have used the 90th percentile of guidance for forecast highs, yielding low to mid 50s on Tuesday and upper 50s to low 60s for Wednesday away from the immediate coast. Low temperatures overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as well as overnight Wednesday into Thursday are also adjusted using the 75th percentile of guidance as warm air advection continues in earnest.

As for precipitation chances, a passing shortwave to our north could produce some showers on Tuesday but it is way too early to pinpoint the impacts and timing of any precipitation. Then on Thursday, a cold front passage could produce some showers but models still differ significantly on the timing of the frontal passage. Overall, a mainly dry forecast is in store through at least mid week.

An interesting tidbit is that this past meteorological winter has been notable for the lack of anomalous warmth, unlike the previous winter. All four of our climate sites have gone a considerable amount of time without exceeding 50F for high temperature. Boston and Providence last saw above 50F on January 16 2021, with highs of 52 and 55F respectively. Hartford and Worcester last saw above 50F on Christmas Day last year, with highs of 63 and 61F respectively. This run is likely to come to an end by Tuesday. In fact, the CPC has a 70 to 80 percent probability of above normal temperatures for Southern New England in its latest 6 to 10 day outlook. Talk about a taste of spring!

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z update .

VFR, dry and blustery WNW winds thru Sunday. Strongest winds will be this afternoon.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF. VFR.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF. VFR.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday night through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE.

305 PM UPDATE .

This evening and overnight . WNW winds 15-20 with gusts up to 25-30 kt this evening finally drop below 25 kt late tonight, especially toward daybreak. Cold airmass and gusty WNW winds will yield light freezing spray, especially the first half of the night. Some snow showers possible offshore, otherwise dry weather and good vsby prevail.

Sat and Sun . WNW winds diminish Sat to about 10-20 kt, then 5-15 kt Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west. Other than snow showers offshore Sat, dry weather and good vsby prevail. Given lighter winds, less light freezing spray expected.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Saturday for ANZ254>256.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera NEAR TERM . Nocera SHORT TERM . WTB/Nocera LONG TERM . Chai AVIATION . Nocera/Chai MARINE . Nocera/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 5 mi102 min W 6 35°F 1005 hPa-5°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 12 mi37 min W 18 G 21 36°F2 ft
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi57 min 34°F 36°F1005.2 hPa
44090 17 mi61 min 38°F4 ft
CHTM3 27 mi57 min W 8 G 16 35°F 39°F1004.1 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi57 min W 8 G 19 33°F 37°F1005.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi27 min NW 19 G 21 1006.6 hPa (-1.0)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi57 min W 19 G 23 32°F 1005.7 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi57 min 31°F 37°F1006.4 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi57 min 32°F 4°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 44 mi37 min WNW 18 G 23 30°F 40°F4 ft1003.2 hPa7°F
PRUR1 46 mi57 min 34°F -10°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi102 min NW 13 36°F 1006 hPa-5°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi57 min NW 13 G 16 33°F 37°F1005.9 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi57 min NW 7 G 13 34°F 1006.6 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi57 min WSW 18 G 23 31°F 37°F1005.4 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA6 mi31 minW 15 G 2210.00 miFair36°F-13°F11%1004.4 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA10 mi31 minNNW 10 G 1810.00 miFair36°F-4°F18%1004 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA17 mi34 minW 11 G 2010.00 miFair35°F-3°F19%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW18SW10
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W7W4NW3NW4W4W4W4W4W4W4W4W4W4W7N7NW11
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NW8NW7NW14NW14NW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Cotuit Highlands
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:49 AM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:56 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:43 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:27 PM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:32 PM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:01 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.21.82.32.72.82.521.20.50-0.10.20.61.11.72.22.42.421.50.90.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:45 AM EST     -0.19 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:48 AM EST     -4.54 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:50 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:57 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:53 AM EST     4.31 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:22 PM EST     -0.19 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:18 PM EST     -4.34 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:20 PM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:32 PM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:19 PM EST     4.06 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.5-1.5-3.4-4.3-4.5-4-2.81.23.24.14.343.21.8-2.4-3.7-4.3-4.2-3.4-1.72.43.64

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