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Marine Weather and Tides Mashpee Neck, MA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:07AM

Sunset 5:37PM

Friday March 5, 2021 3:26 PM EST (20:26 UTC)

Moonrise 1:13AM

Moonset 10:57AM

Illumination 54%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mashpee Neck, MA

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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 052004 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 304 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather persists through the middle of next week. Colder than normal through the weekend, but then a pattern change toward warmer weather by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/.

305 PM UPDATE .

*** Dry but cold and blustery weather through the weekend ***

Tonight .

Cold vortex over Southeast Quebec remains nearly stationary thru Sat night, with multiple short waves circulating cyclonically thru New England, with each wave providing a reinforcing surge of cold/dry air. The first wave moves across Maine this evening, with increasing cold air advection in its wake into Southern New England. 850 mb temps over MA/RI/CT lowering from -11C this afternoon to -16C late tonight. Thus another cold and blustery night ahead, with lows mainly in the teens, about 5-10 degs below normal. It will feel colder with west winds 5-15 mph providing wind chills in the single digits.

As the cold air advection increases tonight, low level WNW winds become aligned with Lake Superior, Huron and Ontario, providing a long moist fetch into NY State, possibly bleeding over the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills into Southern New England. Not expecting anything more than a few flurries or a brief snow shower. Most of the region should remain dry.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/.

305 PM UPDATE .

Saturday and Sunday .

The cold vortex over Southeast Quebec continues to impact our weather with colder than normal conditions, as 850 mb temps only modify to -13C to -14C Sat. This will only support highs of 30-35, except mid to upper 20s inland, especially the high terrain. Winds not quite as gusty as today, but still WNW winds 10-20 mph will provide wind chills in the 20s.

More clouds than today given long moist fetch of Lake Superior, Huron and Ontario into NY State and Southern New England. HREF and BUFKIT shows diurnal CU/SCU blossoming a bit tomorrow afternoon, especially in the hilly terrain. Can't rule out a brief snow shower/flurry, but most of the region remains dry.

Another very dry day with dew pts in the single digits and air temps 30-35, supporting RHs in the 20-30 percent range. Not quite as extreme as today with RH values in the teens.

Cold Sat night given the lack of airmass change along with very low dew pts. Also with decreasing winds, diurnal clouds eroding, blended in some of the colder MOS guidance to derive mins. Lows once again in the teens.

Airmass modifies slightly Sunday as cold vortex finally ejects eastward out of Southeast Quebec. This combined with more sunshine and less wind should make Sunday more pleasant/tolerable than today or Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Highlights .

* Warming trend begins Monday with highs in the 50s and possibly 60s Tuesday into Thursday away from the immediate coast.

Monday into Thursday .

The new work week looks to feature a transition into a +AO/+NAO/-PNA regime, which is favorable for a more significant and prolonged warm up. In fact, the AO is forecast to go highly positive, which is a strong signal for building warmth. Along with the lack of snow cover away from the interior and downsloping effect from strong southwesterly flow, blended model guidance will likely be a little too cool with the high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lending further confidence to anomalous warmth during this period is that both the NAEFS and ENS Situational Ensemble Awareness Table show heights at all levels and 1000mb temperatures rising to 90th percentile for Tuesday and 97.5th to 99th percentile for Wednesday and Thursday. Given such a strong signal for temperatures to overperform, have used the 90th percentile of guidance for forecast highs, yielding low to mid 50s on Tuesday and upper 50s to low 60s for Wednesday away from the immediate coast. Low temperatures overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as well as overnight Wednesday into Thursday are also adjusted using the 75th percentile of guidance as warm air advection continues in earnest.

As for precipitation chances, a passing shortwave to our north could produce some showers on Tuesday but it is way too early to pinpoint the impacts and timing of any precipitation. Then on Thursday, a cold front passage could produce some showers but models still differ significantly on the timing of the frontal passage. Overall, a mainly dry forecast is in store through at least mid week.

An interesting tidbit is that this past meteorological winter has been notable for the lack of anomalous warmth, unlike the previous winter. All four of our climate sites have gone a considerable amount of time without exceeding 50F for high temperature. Boston and Providence last saw above 50F on January 16 2021, with highs of 52 and 55F respectively. Hartford and Worcester last saw above 50F on Christmas Day last year, with highs of 63 and 61F respectively. This run is likely to come to an end by Tuesday. In fact, the CPC has a 70 to 80 percent probability of above normal temperatures for Southern New England in its latest 6 to 10 day outlook. Talk about a taste of spring!

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z update .

VFR, dry and blustery WNW winds thru Sunday. Strongest winds will be this afternoon.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF. VFR.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF. VFR.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday night through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE.

305 PM UPDATE .

This evening and overnight . WNW winds 15-20 with gusts up to 25-30 kt this evening finally drop below 25 kt late tonight, especially toward daybreak. Cold airmass and gusty WNW winds will yield light freezing spray, especially the first half of the night. Some snow showers possible offshore, otherwise dry weather and good vsby prevail.

Sat and Sun . WNW winds diminish Sat to about 10-20 kt, then 5-15 kt Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west. Other than snow showers offshore Sat, dry weather and good vsby prevail. Given lighter winds, less light freezing spray expected.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235- 237-250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Saturday for ANZ254>256.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera NEAR TERM . Nocera SHORT TERM . WTB/Nocera LONG TERM . Chai AVIATION . Nocera/Chai MARINE . Nocera/Chai

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA	5 mi	102 min	W 6	35°F			1005 hPa	-5°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND	12 mi	37 min	W 18 G 21		36°F	2 ft
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA	14 mi	57 min		34°F	36°F		1005.2 hPa
44090	17 mi	61 min			38°F	4 ft
CHTM3	27 mi	57 min	W 8 G 16	35°F	39°F		1004.1 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA	29 mi	57 min	W 8 G 19	33°F	37°F		1005.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA	35 mi	27 min	NW 19 G 21				1006.6 hPa (-1.0)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA	39 mi	57 min	W 19 G 23	32°F			1005.7 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA	39 mi	57 min		31°F	37°F		1006.4 hPa
FRXM3	40 mi	57 min		32°F				4°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA	44 mi	37 min	WNW 18 G 23	30°F	40°F	4 ft	1003.2 hPa	7°F
PRUR1	46 mi	57 min		34°F				-10°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI	48 mi	102 min	NW 13	36°F			1006 hPa	-5°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI	48 mi	57 min	NW 13 G 16	33°F	37°F		1005.9 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI	48 mi	57 min	NW 7 G 13	34°F			1006.6 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI	49 mi	57 min	WSW 18 G 23	31°F	37°F		1005.4 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Last 24hr

W6

NW9 G12

NW10 G16

NW13 G18

W8 G13

W7 G13

NW12 G20

NW11 G20

W9 G19

NW11 G18

NW11 G18

NW11 G21

NW10 G21

NW11 G17

NW10 G14

NW9 G14

NW10 G19

W11 G18

NW11 G17

NW10 G17

NW14 G18

NW11 G15

NW9 G19

W12 G16

1 day ago

W8 G14

W8 G14

W6 G11

W6 G10

W5 G12

W6 G11

W6 G9

W5 G9

W5 G10

W4 G7

NW6 G9

W3 G6

W3

W4 G9

W5 G9

W5

W4 G8

W7 G13

W9 G14

NW8 G14

N4 G8

N4

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N4

2 days ago

NW11 G23

W12 G25

W13 G24

W10 G25

W13 G24

W11 G19

NW11 G21

NW12 G17

NW12 G17

W10 G14

W10 G16

W9 G16

W6 G12

W6 G9

W6 G14

W8 G12

W7 G14

W7 G12

W9 G18

W13 G19

W7 G19

W7 G12

W8 G14

W8 G15

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA	6 mi	31 min	W 15 G 22	10.00 mi	Fair	36°F	-13°F	11%	1004.4 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA	10 mi	31 min	NNW 10 G 18	10.00 mi	Fair	36°F	-4°F	18%	1004 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA	17 mi	34 min	W 11 G 20	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	-3°F	19%	1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)

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W22 G27

W14 G21

W14

W11

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NW11 G17

NW10 G17

NW10 G17

NW12 G18

NW12 G18

NW12 G18

NW12 G18

NW12 G18

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NW10

NW10

NW13 G21

NW13 G21

NW12 G19

NW14 G22

W16 G22

W15 G22

W15 G22

1 day ago

SW18

SW10 G18

SW10 G18

W7

W4

NW3

NW4

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W4

W4

W4

W4

W4

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W4

W4

W7

N7

NW11 G18

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NW7

NW14

NW14

NW14 G23

2 days ago

NW19 G35

W20

W18 G26

W13 G21

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W21 G27

W13

NW9

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W12

W13 G19

W13

W11

W13

W12

W13 G20

W13 G22

W12 G20

W16

W14 G20

W12

W10

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SW13

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Tide / Current Tables for Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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