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Marine Weather and Tides West Falmouth, MA Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 6:56AM

Sunset 4:14PM

Monday December 9, 2019 7:07 PM EST (00:07 UTC)

Moonrise 3:51PM

Moonset 5:01AM

Illumination 96%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Falmouth, MA

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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 092048 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 348 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A milder airmass will continue to surge northward across the region and will be accompanied by showers into Tuesday. The rain will be heavy at times. A cold front moves through Tuesday evening, ushering in much colder air that will likely change rain to snow and linger into Wednesday with accumulations likely. Large high pressure will bring cold and dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Another system will impact the region Saturday with potentially periods of heavy rain, possibly beginning as freezing rain over northwest Massachusetts. A trend toward drier and cooler weather is scheduled for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/.

No significant changes form the prior forecast thinking. Still expecting a low pressure to move through the upper Great Lakes into southeast Canada tonight. warmer air with strong southerly winds expected to continue. This combination will certainly erode the snowpack further within the warm sector of this low pressure. Temperatures should follow a non-diurnal trend tonight, remaining nearly steady or slowly rising.

Very strong winds at 925 mb, approaching 70-80 kt. These same strong winds have also generated a substantial temperature inversion. This will prevent much of these winds from mixing all the way down to the ground. Thinking wind gusts generally remain less than Wind Advisory criteria. Could see a few gusts greater than 40 kt/46 mph, but the impact should be minimal.

Well above normal temperatures tonight with periods of rain. even with the snowmelt, not expecting widespread flooding issues. Could see some spots of nuisance poor-drainage flooding, generally in areas with snow-clogged drains.

The melting snow should also lead to areas of fog, at least until a strong enough wind can develop to disperse it. This is especially true where there is a deeper snowpack (i.e. a cold ground surface).

Thinking there will be a bit of a lull in the precipitation late tonight. At that time, we should be more between the warm front to our north and an approaching cold front from the west.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/.

A cold front is anticipated to move across southern New England during the afternoon hours. This front will provide an additional focus for rainfall. Expecting another round of showers to develop from mid morning into the afternoon hours. Low level convergence will not be ideal. Precipitable water will also remain above normal, but not exceptionally above normal. Overall, looks like an efficient rainfall situation. There simply should not be a lot of rainfall.

Our region will spend most of the day in the warm sector. Despite the clouds, max temperatures generally in the 50s are expected. A few locations could make a run at 60 degrees. Some locations across the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills and east slopes of the Berkshires should remain closer to around 50 degrees.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/.

Highlights .

* Rain changing to snow Tue night/Wed with accumulating snow likely * Colder than normal Thu into Fri but dry except possible ocean effect snow showers outer Cape Cod

* Another weather system Sat with heavy rain & potential flooding Details .

Tuesday night and Wednesday .

*** Accumulating Snow Possible Wed Morning Commute ***

Cold front pushes offshore with shallow cold air overspreading the region and becoming deeper as the night progresses. Strong short wave approaching the Great Lakes maintains southwest flow aloft across New England, thus warm air overrunning cold air at the surface setting the stage for another precip event. All guidance indicates the column is cold enough to support all snow especially after midnight. The question then becomes how much qpf will overrun the boundary into the cold air across southern New England?

Both ensemble data sets from the EC and GFS including deterministic guidance from the NAM/HREF/GFS/EC suggest heaviest qpf will be confined to the south coast of MA/RI/CT. Ensembles offering 0.25 to 0.33 in this area and obviously deterministic guidance higher with 12z NAM showing a stripe of 0.75+ inches from Cape Cod to MVY. 12z HREF ends 12z Wed but also has some members supporting higher qpf 06z-12z Wed. In fact the 12z ECENS has over 30 of its 50 members supporting at least 2 inches of snow for much CT/RI and MA!

At this model time range (42+ hrs) typical model error for a frontal boundary is probably in the +/- 50-100 miles range. Thus this heavier qpf band could shift and verify offshore but also could shift inland to perhaps HFD-ORH-BOS. So there remains a range of possibilities. Tracing back the short wave that will enter the Great Lakes early Wed that will back the mid level flow across southern New England and impact our forecast, this feature traces back to the Arctic circle this afternoon. Obviously this is a data sparse area so expecting models to initialize this feature differently/better once it reaches lower latitudes with more data. Typically these arctic short waves verify stronger/more robust given poor model initialization at higher latitudes in data sparse regions. In addition this approaching arctic short wave will be accompanied by an anomalous upper level jet streak across northern New England into southern Quebec Tue ngt/Wed with speeds of 180+ kts! Thus a lot of jet dynamics to watch unfold.

So at this early stage our preliminary snowfall forecast could range as little as a coating to an inch (our 10% percentile snow forecast) to possibly 2-4 inches (50% percentile snow forecast) if arctic short wave verifies stronger with mid level flow backing more to the SSW and with longer duration yielding higher qpf. Also can't completely dismiss the more extreme NAM/HREF solution with 4+ inches, albeit a low prob but within the envelope of solutions. Nevertheless will need to watch this portion of the forecast given its potential impact to the Wed morning commute.

Wednesday night through Friday .

As you would expect pretty cold airmass overspreads the region Wed night into Thu behind departing Arctic short wave. By 12z Thu 925 mb temps fall to about -13C over southern New England and 850 temps down to -20C upstream over northern VT/NH! However mainly dry weather prevails as 1040+ mb Arctic high builds into the region. Gusty NW winds will provide frigid wind chills Wed night but by Thu afternoon gradient relaxes so diminishing winds later Thu into Fri. However before this occurs low level winds turn to the NNW and may yield ocean effect snow showers for the outer Cape and Nantucket Thu/Thu evening. Otherwise dry but cold weather prevails. Given the magnitude of the cold air (-1 to -2 STD) will derive temps from a 50/50 blend of the coldest guidance and Superblend.

Next Weekend .

*** Heavy Rain & Flood Potential ***

Another potent system appears to impact the region Saturday with ensembles showing PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STD. Thus heavy rain threat and given heavy rain from today and tomorrow along with snow melt contribution, increased risk for river and urban flooding Saturday. Shallow cold air may linger across the CT river valley of western MA and may result in freezing rain/wintry mix at the onset Friday night.

Ensembles suggest pattern remains progressive so some improvement possible Sunday with a drying trend and cooler weather.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/ . High confidence.

Mainly MVFR CIGS/VFR VSBYS well inland with local VFR conditions across N Mass. Farther S, mix of VFR-MVFR conditions at most sites, except IFR-LIFR across portions N CT into S central Mass. Expect lowest conditions across N central/NW Mass with deep snowpack in place.

IFR-LIFR conditions will continue early tonight, then VSBYS may slowly improve as SW winds will increase overnight. CIGS will remain low.

Scattered -SHRA linger across region Tue with MVFR-IFR CIGS and areas of MVFR-IFR VSBYS mainly along S coast.

LLWS continues due to light winds at surface and 2kft winds 19040kt. Later today and tonight, focus of LLWS shifts into RI and eastern MA as southerly low level jet increases to 50-60kt at 2kft.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/ .

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. PL likely, chance RA, chance SN, FZRA likely.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN, chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, SHSN likely, FZRA likely.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tuesday/ . High confidence.

** Gale Warnings for most of waters through Tue morning **

Increasing S-SW winds into tonight. Gale force gusts this afternoon and tonight, with peak gusts of 35-40 kt expected. Gusty winds remain in place Tuesday. Expecting Gale Warnings to be gradually replaced by Small Craft Advisories Tuesday morning as conditions warrant.

Steadier showers continue into this evening. Patches of dense fog possible mainly on south coastal waters. More in way of scattered showers Tuesday morning before next round of steadier rainfall arrives later in the day. Expect poor visibility around 1 NM in the heavier showers.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/ .

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain likely, sleet likely.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow, rain likely, sleet likely. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain showers likely.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-236.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Nocera NEAR TERM . Belk SHORT TERM . Belk LONG TERM . Nocera AVIATION . Belk/Nocera MARINE . Belk/Nocera

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA	6 mi	145 min		50°F	42°F		1014.4 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA	11 mi	82 min	SE 5.1	54°F			1013 hPa	54°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA	22 mi	67 min	S 29 G 31	54°F			1012 hPa (-3.7)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA	24 mi	145 min		57°F	42°F		1013.1 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND	25 mi	27 min	25 G 31		43°F		1012.5 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA	25 mi	139 min	S 23 G 30	58°F			1012.5 hPa
FRXM3	25 mi	145 min		58°F				55°F
44090	26 mi	37 min			46°F	3 ft
PRUR1	31 mi	109 min		56°F				55°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI	33 mi	82 min	WSW 7	52°F			1012 hPa	52°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI	33 mi	115 min		52°F			1012.8 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI	33 mi	109 min		53°F			1013.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI	36 mi	115 min					1012.7 hPa
PVDR1	37 mi	115 min		53°F				53°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI	39 mi	145 min	S 8 G 11	53°F	42°F		1012.9 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA	40 mi	139 min	S 11 G 20	53°F	40°F		1015.6 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154)	49 mi	37 min			52°F	11 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA	11 mi	82 min	S 19 G 26	2.00 mi	Light Rain and Breezy	55°F	55°F	100%	1012.9 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA	14 mi	74 min	S 19 G 28	3.00 mi	Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy	56°F	55°F	97%	1012.1 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA	15 mi	74 min	S 15 G 27	2.50 mi	Heavy Rain Fog/Mist	55°F	53°F	93%	1013.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA	24 mi	71 min	S 13 G 21	2.50 mi	Rain Fog/Mist	54°F	51°F	90%	1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts

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Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA

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