Friday, September18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mattapoisett Center, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 6:48PM Friday September 18, 2020 7:00 AM EDT (11:00 UTC) Moonrise 7:38AMMoonset 7:53PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 416 Am Edt Fri Sep 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers this morning.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon through Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Am Edt Fri Sep 18 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds south from canada bringing gusty northeast winds and rough seas today right through the weekend. Hurricane teddy will then likely track well east of southern new england early next week bringing the potential for gale force n-ne wind gusts and seas building to between 10 and 15+ feet across our eastern waters. This may result in dangerous conditions for mariners who should keep posted on the latest weather forecasts. Teddy will likely lift into the maritimes by the middle of next week, allowing winds and seas to finally settle down. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattapoisett Center, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 180829 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 429 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Rain impacting portions of the Cape and Islands will come to an end later this morning. Otherwise, the main story will be the unseasonably cool temperatures into early next week along with the track of Hurricane Teddy. Fortunately, it appears that Hurricane Teddy will track far enough east of our region to just bring high surf and minor coastal flooding/minor beach erosion issues into early next week. Temperatures will moderate significantly by the middle of next week with dry weather persisting. Little if any rainfall is expected through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

* Cool, raw and blustery day for many locations with highs more typical mid October. * Clouds could hang tight for coastal locations much of the day as remnants of Sally pass way to our southeast. * Smoke from Western wildfires will likely clear with frontal passage.

Period of rain continues early this morning for areas along the immediate South Coast as well as the Cape and Islands. This is due to decent low-level convergence between the leading edge of post TC Sally's circulation and the cold front, which has currently cleared the S Coast. The rain comes to an end by mid morning.

Then our attention turns to the season's first real taste of fall. A 1030mb high will build into New England from the Great Lakes. Pressure gradient will begin to tighten between the approaching high and departing low associated with post TC Sally, leading to increasingly blustery conditions area wide, but particularly over Eastern MA coast by mid to late morning hours. NNE winds could blow 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. This is an impressive cold, dry air mass with 500mb to 1000mb temperatures between 2.5 and 10th percentile according to NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness table. Near-term model guidance shows it will likely take most of the morning to clear the low-level moisture. But by early afternoon, skies should clear from the NW to SE but because expect cold stratocumulus to dot the skies thanks to the anomalous cold air aloft.

Daily record minimum highs could also be challenged at our climate sites. See the Climate section below. The northerly near-surface flow means that the cold Canadian air mass will not be modified by the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, which would have occurred with a northwesterly flow. 850mb temperatures fall to +3C over the interior and to +7C over Eastern MA/RI by the evening hours. Hence, have used a blend of NAM and MOS guidance to yield highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, which are 10 to 15 degrees below normal and more typical for mid October. The exception is the Cape and Islands, which could top out in the mid 60s. With stout N to NNE winds at 20 to 25 mph, it will certainly be a shock to the system for many and a reminder that winter is coming.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/.

Tonight:

* Frost Advisories for Western MA. Daily record minimum lows could be challenged.

Cold air advection continues into the evening but as surface high pressure approaches New England, Bufkit soundings show the winds decoupling for our western zones. This will allow radiational cooling to be maximized under mostly clear skies. With dew points falling into the 20s, have gone ahead to issue the season's first frost headlines for the East Slopes of the Berkshires. Confidence for frost development is much less for our eastern zones because the winds will likely not decouple for widespread lows in the 30s. See the Climate section for the record minimum lows that could be challenged.

Saturday:

* Chilly day despite plentiful sunshine. Daily record minimum highs could be challenged.

After a cold night with first frost of the season for some, another chilly day is in store. It will be less windy than on Friday though, as surface high pressure moves overhead. 850mb temperatures fall to between -1C and +1C, which will only support highs in the upper 50s to low 60s despite plentiful sunshine. See the Climate section for the record minimum highs that could be challenged.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Highlights .

* Unseasonably cool weather into early next week with areas of frost and even very localized sub-freezing early morning temps

* High Surf and pockets of minor coastal flooding/minor beach erosion into early next week with gusty NE winds on the coast

* Hurricane Teddy will track far enough east of us resulting in very little if any rainfall into the middle of next week

* Significant warming trend by the middle of next week

Details .

Saturday night through Tuesday .

Large high pressure over eastern Canada/northern New England will teamup with Hurricane Teddy likely tracking well east of southern New England early next week. The result will be persistent gusty NE winds and unseasonably cool temperatures. Low temps by daybreak on Sun and Mon mornings will drop down into the 30s in many locations with some upper 20s to lower 30s possible in the normally coolest outlying locations especially in western MA. Additional frost headlines will likely be needed with perhaps even some freeze headlines needed for parts of western MA. The coolest afternoon will be on Sunday when high temps likely only reach the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Readings will be a tad milder Mon afternoon and probably into the middle to upper 60s for high temps by Tue, which is still below normal for this time of year.

Mainly dry weather will likely prevail into early next week. Appears that Hurricane Teddy will track too far east to bring rainfall to the region Mon into Tue. Low risk for a brief period of rain across eastern New England, but most of the latest guidance keeps that east of our coastline. We do expect enough of a pressure gradient to bring high surf and pockets of minor coastal flooding/beach erosion as a result of high astro tides. Please see our Tides/Coastal Flood section for more information.

Wednesday and Thursday .

Hurricane Teddy will have lifted north into the Canadian Maritimes by the middle of next week. This will allow more of a westerly flow aloft and at the surface to move into southern New England. High temperatures should rebound well into the 70s by Wed and Thu. Dry weather should prevail Wed into the first half of Thu, but perhaps a better chance for a period of showers arrives by late Thu or Fri as a cold front approaches from the west.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12z: High confidence.

Periods of rain and MVFR to localized IFR conditions for the Cape terminals. Dry and VFR conditions elsewhere. N winds 5 to 10 kts except up to 15 kts for the Cape terminals.

Today: High confidence.

Widespread MVFR to low VFR ceilings for most interior terminals and localized IFR for Cape terminals. Improvement to VFR for interior terminals by 18z and Cape terminals by 00z. For interior terminals, N winds at 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. For coastal terminals, N to NNE winds at 20 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR conditions. For interior terminals, N winds at 5 to 10 kts. For coastal terminals, N to NNE winds at 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts.

Saturday: High confidence.

VFR conditions. For interior terminals, N winds around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. For coastal terminals, N to NNE winds at 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy with local gusts up to 30 kt along the southeast New England coast.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy with gusts up to 30 kt along the southeast New England coast.

Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt along the southeast New England coast.

Monday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 35 kt along the southeast New England coast.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt along the southeast New England coast. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE.

* Gale Watches have been converted to Gale Warnings for waters around Cape Cod and the Islands. Small Craft Advisories continue for all other outer waters.

Northeast winds will begin to pick up early this morning and strengthen to 20 to 25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts by late morning to early afternoon. This is in response to a tightening pressure gradient between an impressive Canadian high building in and the departing remnants of TC Sally. Waves also begin to build to over 7 ft for the Eastern outer waters by late afternoon and increase to over 10 ft overnight.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

* Hurricane Teddy will likely bring dangerous conditions for mariners early next week with 10-15+ foot seas and Gale Force N-NE wind gusts across our eastern waters.

Hurricane Teddy will likely track well east of our region early next week. However, strong high pressure over eastern Canada/northern New England will result in a strong pressure gradient. This will allow for N to NE wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots and may build seas to between 10 and 15+ feet across our eastern waters. The exact impacts will be determined by how close this Hurricane tracks to our waters, but this has the potential to be a dangerous storm for mariners.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.

Large high pressure over eastern Canada/northern New England will combined with remnants of Sally passing well south of our region today into Sat. This will be followed by Hurricane Teddy, which will pass well east of our region early next week.

This synoptic setup will result in persistent gusty NE winds along the coast with high seas across our open waters. This will result in High Surf/Dangerous rip currents into early next week. In addition, high astro tides between 11.6 and 11.8 MLLW in Boston into early next week will result in pockets of beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. Appears Sun, Mon and possibly Tue may be most prone to these conditions given built up offshore seas and NE winds. Fortunately, the Hurricane should pass far enough east of our region to prevent any significant coastal flooding issues.

CLIMATE.

Daily record minimum highs Saturday, Sep 19.

BOS 49F (1938) BDL 57F (1981) ORH 54F (1987) PVD 57F (1913)

Daily record minimum lows Saturday, Sep 19 and Sunday, Sep 20.

Sep 19:

BOS 42F (1929) BDL 33F (1956) ORH 30F (1943) PVD 37F (1956)

Sep 20:

BOS 42F (1979) BDL 30F (1979) ORH 29F (1941) PVD 38F (1979)

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-016-019-022>024. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MAZ002-003-008>011. RI . High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ008. MARINE . Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ232-254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ231-233>235- 237-256. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-251.



SYNOPSIS . Chai/Frank NEAR TERM . Chai SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Chai/Frank MARINE . Chai/Frank TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Frank CLIMATE . Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 7 mi42 min 63°F 70°F1013.1 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi75 min WNW 1.9 64°F 1013 hPa64°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 21 mi60 min NNE 17 G 19 1013.8 hPa (-0.4)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 23 mi42 min 63°F 70°F1014.4 hPa
FRXM3 24 mi42 min 64°F 58°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 24 mi42 min NNE 11 G 13 64°F 1014.2 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi20 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 70°F
44090 27 mi33 min 65°F3 ft
PRUR1 30 mi42 min 63°F 57°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi75 min NE 12 63°F 1014 hPa57°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi42 min N 11 G 15 63°F 68°F1013.9 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi42 min NE 8.9 G 13 63°F 1014.8 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 33 mi42 min 61°F 69°F1014.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 35 mi42 min N 14 G 18 62°F 69°F1014.1 hPa
PVDR1 36 mi42 min N 12 G 15 62°F 1014.9 hPa54°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi42 min ENE 8.9 G 18 62°F 67°F1014.8 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 41 mi42 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 63°F 68°F1012.9 hPa
CHTM3 42 mi42 min S 1.9 G 5.1 62°F 64°F1012.9 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi34 min 69°F3 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi75 minNNE 55.00 miLight Drizzle64°F64°F100%1012.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA13 mi67 minN 610.00 miLight Rain62°F57°F86%1013.4 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi67 minNE 36.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist64°F64°F100%1012.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi68 minNNE 14 G 1810.00 miLight Rain62°F55°F80%1014.2 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi68 minno data10.00 miOvercast63°F53°F70%1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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SW5W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5N5NE9
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--NE8NE7--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5

Tide / Current Tables for Bird Island, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Bird Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:21 AM EDT     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:05 AM EDT     5.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:48 PM EDT     -0.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:28 PM EDT     5.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.3-0.1-0.8-0.701.12.545.25.85.342.20.5-0.6-0.8-0.40.61.83.34.65.45.44.4

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:07 AM EDT     -4.21 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:29 AM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:12 AM EDT     4.07 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:01 PM EDT     -0.08 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:34 PM EDT     -4.09 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:50 PM EDT     0.15 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:29 PM EDT     3.94 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.3-3.7-4.2-3.9-3.1-1.71.833.84.13.93.10.6-3-4-4-3.4-2.31.12.63.53.93.93.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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