Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willoughby, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 210811 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 411 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will exit the region this morning, while a trough will linger through today and into Thursday morning. High pressure ridging will extend north into the area on Thursday into Friday. Another low pressure system will approach the region on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Major change in this update includes the cancellation of the western two tiers of Winter Weather Advisories as the band of moderate to heavy snow has exited east of the region. Further eastward cancellation of remaining advisories will be likely upon reaching the next forecast update.

A narrow band of moderate to heavy snow producing 1 to 2 inch per hour rates continues to pivot east across the region early this morning, though recent trends suggest this feature may be becoming more progressive. This bad Thus, snow should begin to quickly taper from west to east through the rest of the early morning with most areas becoming dry following sunrise. The exception will be across NW PA where moderate to heavy snow may remain possible through about mid-morning.

By mid to late morning, there should be a lull in precipitation as the low-levels begin to dry out. However, another shortwave is expected to pivot south across Lake Huron later this afternoon, kicking off some diurnally-driven rain and/or snow showers, especially across western OH. Meanwhile, across NE OH and NW PA, the shortwave may help provide enough lift and mid-level moisture for some light lake effect snow showers, given the relatively cold air mass aloft. One difficulty in this afternoon and evening's forecast is the abundance of dry, low-level air near the surface which may limit the coverage and intensity of any rain and/or snow showers that develop. Sufficient breaks in cloud cover across NW OH could even result in highs reaching the low to mid 40s in some spots, though mid 30s will be more common across NE OH and NW PA.

By Wednesday night, breaks in the cloud cover should be much more prevalent, allowing lows to bottom out in the mid to upper 20s. A freeze warning will once again be needed for counties in the growing season, likely issued sometime later this morning as snow headlines continue across the area early this morning.

By Thursday, another weak shortwave will move south across the eastern Great Lakes, though low-level dry air appears even more abundant than the previous day as upper ridging creeps east into the Midwest. Will keep chance PoPs through Thursday morning for some light rain and/or snow showers, though given the low-level dry air and weak forcing, they shouldn't amount to much. Otherwise, Thursday will begin the warming trend, with highs out west inching back towards the lower 50s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Our area will be on the western portion of an upper level trough near the the Northeast Thursday night. A surface high pressure system will be near the lower Appalachian Mountains Thursday night with a light westerly surface flow over our area. Lake effect clouds will slowly clear out of the area downwind of the lake Thursday evening with mostly clear skies expect Thursday night. The light westerly wind of 5 to 8 mph will help keep overnight low temperatures from getting too cold but again back down into the lower and middle 30s away from the lakeshore. Upper level heights will begin to rise on Friday and a southwesterly surface wind will help our afternoon temperatures climb closer to seasonable averages for this time of year. Forecast guidance shows a broad mid level trough moving through the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley region on Saturday. Clouds and moisture will be on the increase ahead of this next weather system. A surface low will develop near the lower Ohio Valley and track eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region late Saturday night into early Sunday. Rain chances will increase on Saturday with our highest chance for light rain Saturday afternoon into the evening.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The weather system that will bring widespread light rain to the region on Saturday will exit the East Coast on Sunday. We will see some lingering showers over the eastern CWA and cloud cover Sunday morning but skies will clear from west to east by Sunday afternoon. We will have a light northwesterly flow but it will not change our airmass or temperatures that much for Sunday. We will again see temperatures Sunday afternoon near seasonable averages in the upper 50s to low 60s. High pressure will be over the region on Monday with light winds and lots of sunshine. Temperatures will respond nicely and reach the 60s for most locations. A big weather pattern shift occurs on Tuesday with a nice upper level ridge building over the Ohio Valley and a southerly flow. We will have so much warmer and Spring like temperatures on Tuesday with 70s area wide. Northwest Ohio may be pushing into the low 80s Tuesday afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/. Snow continues across the TAF sites early this morning with the heaviest currently on a line from MFD to CLE to ERI with 1/2sm vsbys and widespread IFR to isolated pockets of LIFR ceilings. This axis of heavy snow will be brief(1 to 2 hours) as it pivots east through the early morning, eventually impacting CAK and YNG, albeit with slightly higher vsbys, perhaps closer to 1sm. Snow will quickly taper from west to east across the area shortly following sunrise with the exception of ERI, where light snow may linger through mid-morning. Ceilings should also improve from IFR to MVFR, and eventually to manly VFR by early afternoon, though pockets of lower MVFR ceilings could still pose an issue. An area of rain and/or snow showers may develop across IN later this afternoon which could impact TOL/FDY/MFD, though confidence remains low on this occurrence.

Winds are mainly out of the north/northwest early this morning, around 10 knots with higher winds near 15 knots along the lakeshore. Primarily north to northwest flow will continue through the TAF period, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots along the lakeshore later this afternoon. By the end of the TAF period, winds become more westerly and generally 10 knots or less.

Outlook . Lingering non-VFR possible in scattered lake effect rain and/or snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Non-VFR possible in rain showers on Saturday.

MARINE. Low pressure currently near western Pennsylvania will track east today with northwest winds over the lake 10 to 20 knots. The onshore flow will continue to bring some higher waves for the central lakeshore areas of Lake Erie. There were no changes needed to the ongoing Small Craft Advisory which is through this evening. A very brief lull in the wind and waves is expected late tonight into early Thursday morning. Westerly winds will increase again later on Thursday back to 10 to 20 knots which will probably result in another rounds of Small Craft Advisory needed for the eastern half of Lake Erie early Thursday through perhaps as late as Friday afternoon. Winds are less certain and become more variable through the rest of the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ009>014-019-020-029-030-089. Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006-017- 027-036. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for OHZ037-047. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EDT today for PAZ001-002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ144>146.

SYNOPSIS . Kahn NEAR TERM . Kahn SHORT TERM . Griffin LONG TERM . Griffin AVIATION . Kahn MARINE . Griffin

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	11 mi	45 min	N 23 G 26	35°F	51°F		1012.7 hPa (+0.7)	35°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	14 mi	45 min	NNE 19 G 24	33°F	51°F		1013.6 hPa (+0.6)	31°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	28 mi	75 min	NNE 21 G 24
LORO1	43 mi	15 min	N 20 G 23	35°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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S8 G12

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SW8 G11

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	5 mi	50 min	N 8	1.50 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	32°F	30°F	95%	1013.5 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH	17 mi	52 min	N 19 G 25	5.00 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist and Breezy	36°F	32°F	86%	1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)

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