Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Willoughby, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:08PM Thursday October 1, 2020 11:26 AM EDT (15:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:28PMMoonset 5:55AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:202010011430;;632918 Fzus51 Kcle 010747 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 347 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez146>149-011430- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 347 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A slight chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of waterspouts. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 65 degrees, off cleveland 68 degrees, and off erie 67 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willoughby, OH
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location: 41.63, -81.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 011338 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 938 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. A trough over the northern Great Lakes will push south today, reaching Lake Erie tonight. This feature will stall over the lake Friday before high pressure builds from the west for the Saturday. A low pressure system will enter the Great Lakes region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Added slight chance of thunder this morning through the afternoon as we're already seeing several lightning strikes associated with the lake effect band over the eastern basin of Lake Erie. May also see a few strikes on land this afternoon with SBCAPE of 500 J/kg possible. The most intense lake effect cloud band which has been producing showers and thunderstorms this morning was located just off of Cuyahoga/Lake Counties, though the best potential for waterspouts appears to be just off of Erie, PA County and northeastward. This is where the best area of convergence (south/southeast wind from on land and northwest wind originating from the Canadian side of the lake) is located.

Previous Discussion . A cold front departing to the east of the region has allowed for temperatures aloft to cool over warm Lake Erie and lake effect cloud and rain showers continue over far NE OH into NW PA this morning. Satellite and radar depict a boundary extending from Lake Erie into Ashtabula and Erie Counties then into western NY. This feature has been the main focus for scattered showers this morning and will keep chance PoPs in the forecast through this morning as this feature will persist and continue to bring rain to NE OH/NW PA.

Rain activity will increase through the day as better low level moisture enters the region. Another round of synoptically-driven rainfall is expected this afternoon as a surface trough approaches slowly from the north and a mid-level shortwave trough swings through the region. Believe that most activity will be scattered in nature and have chances PoPs; however, expect better chances in the NE OH/NW PA region with lake enhancement and have likely PoPs. High temperatures will underachieve from Wednesday with lower 60s and some locations in NE OH/NW PA staying in the upper 50s.

The surface trough reaches Lake Erie tonight and slows significantly as the mid-level wave exits to the east. This feature will generate showers over Lake Erie and push into NE OH/NW PA overnight. Rain should persist through the overnight into Friday as the lake will provide ample instability and moisture with a west to northwest fetch, while very cold air enters aloft. Thunder is certainly possibility with the cold temps aloft and the lake-induced instability and have maintained the slight chance thunder mention. The surface trough moves east on Friday and residual rain is possible in the snow belt region with favorable flow off the lake. Low temperatures tonight will be largely in the 40s, although some upper 30s are possible in NW OH, if clearing skies do occur. Highs on Friday will struggle even further behind the surface trough and will remain in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Broad upper trough will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region through the period. Lingering lake effect rain will subside Friday night into Saturday as a surface trough moves east of the region and winds veer more southwest/southerly as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes/Ohio valley. A potent shortwave will move east across the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night with a surface low developing across the area. This will bring precip chances to the area, with some minor model timing and model solution differences precluding likely pops at this time, with high chance pops forecast at this time. Precip will diminish behind the low/trough Sunday night from west to east. Continued cool temperatures expected with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Friday night will be the coolest night of the stretch with the building ridge, with some of the typical outlying spots across northeast Ohio seeing some patchy frost.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Ridging will build east across the region Monday and Monday night, with drying conditions and a brief warmup into Tuesday before the ridge shifts east and a broad large scale trough digs south through the Great Lakes. Model solutions are in fair agreement with the pattern into the middle of next week, with a surface low deepening and tracking east across the Great Lakes sometime Wednesday. Return flow should persist into the area through the period, with highs warming from the low 60s Monday to the mid/upper 60s by Wednesday. Precip chances could return as early as Wednesday but will be more likely just beyond this forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. A boundary with lake effect rain persists over central Lake Erie this morning and will allow for showers in and around the KERI terminal. Have maintained MVFR conditions in the TAF for now. A land breeze may interrupt convection in the region for a brief bit this morning and have KERI after 16z. A surface trough will enter the southern Great Lakes region today and bring increasing cloudiness across all terminals. With greater instability over the warm lake and the slow timing of this feature, expect rain to develop for the northern TAF sites this evening and tonight. Confidence of rain at KTOL remain low and have maintained a vicinity shower for now. Rain is much more certain at KCLE and KERI for the second half of the TAF period and have MVFR mentions for now, although IFR is definitely within the realm of possibility. Some of this rain could have thunder but confidence in TS is too low to mention in a TAF at this time, but could be added at a later time. Low clouds and lingering rain will persist into Friday, especially across NE OH and NW PA and have ceilings falling all across the area, including as far south as KYNG, KCAK, and KMFD. Winds through the period will be southwest with occasional gusts to 20 knots during the day. Winds will veer more west to northwest with the trough late in the period into Friday.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible across NE OH and NW PA with occasional rain showers through Friday night. Non-VFR possible with showers and low ceilings on Sunday and Monday.

MARINE. An active period on the lake continues through the end of the week, although winds this morning will continue to subside through early afternoon. Left the small craft advisory up east of Avon Point and cancelled west to Vermilion. Conditions may drop below advisory criteria later this morning/midday that could necessitate further cancellation, however this will be short lived as a cold front drops southeast to the lake later tonight. Wind will increase out of the northwest behind the front 15-20 kts after 06Z Friday, which will likely require another small craft advisory Friday. Winds will subside Friday night into Saturday as high pressure moves over the lake. Winds will become southerly Sunday into Sunday night as the high departs east, veering easterly then northerly Monday as low pressure passes south of the lake. With the trough over the lake today through Friday evening, waterspout potential will continue with any shower activity across the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ012-089. PA . Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ001. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ146>149.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Kahn/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Greenawalt LONG TERM . Greenawalt AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 11 mi57 min 57°F 65°F1012 hPa48°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 14 mi57 min 56°F 64°F1013.4 hPa44°F
45164 17 mi87 min 65°F4 ft
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 28 mi57 min W 8.9 G 12
LORO1 43 mi57 min WSW 12 G 15 55°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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SW9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH5 mi42 minSW 1020.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F46°F67%1013.2 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH17 mi34 minSW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds58°F45°F62%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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----SW10SW7--SW8SW11SW10SW10
1 day agoSW8NW6W6NW5W7W4CalmCalmS3S4S5S4--S4SW7SW8SW9SW10SW11SW13SW9
G18
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2 days agoS11SW13
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S8NW11W13W12NW12
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NW7W12
G18
W10SW3SW8SW9SW9--SW7S6S4SW6SW6SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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