Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Willoughby, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:48PM Saturday March 28, 2020 4:23 PM EDT (20:23 UTC) Moonrise 8:32AMMoonset 11:02PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:202003281415;;184929 Fzus51 Kcle 280742 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 342 Am Edt Sat Mar 28 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez144>147-281415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 342 Am Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Today..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of rain showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early this afternoon. A slight chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 39 degrees, and off erie 39 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willoughby, OH
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location: 41.63, -81.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 281810 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 210 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will lift north across the area today and become nearly stationary until this evening as a strong low pressure system moves into the western Great Lakes. A cold front will push east across the area Sunday morning. The low pressure system will move northeast toward Quebec Sunday night and allow a trough to rotate southeast across the area. A ridge of high pressure will build east across the local area Monday night into Tuesday and shift east Wednesday. A low pressure system will move east into the central Great Lakes Thursday and east of the area by the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Convection has been active across the area so far today with numerous reports of hail, many up to golf ball size, along the elevated warm front. This has been occurring on the north side of a surface wave sliding east across the area. We have also had additional heavy rain of 0.5 to 1.0" of rain on top of areas that received up to an inch of rain in the last 24 hours. Cancelled portions of the Flood Watch across western and central Ohio and expanded the Watch farther north to include generally our 2 northern tiers of counties where the heaviest rain has occurred. This area is expected to see additional rainfall overnight and storms may train in advance of the surface warm front, leading to a threat of flash flooding.

In addition, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued as as the actual warm front lifts north into the area through 7 PM. Once storms exit NE Ohio, we may see a break in the more robust convection given considerable cloud cover but eventually expecting the more unstable airmass to lift north, renewing the threat of severe storms into this evening. This activity will likely be surfaced based adding a wind and to a lesser extent tornado threat.

Previous Discussion .

A potent upper level low pressure system will move east- northeast out of the central Plains states to the central Great Lakes by Sunday. This feature will result in a deep surface low pressure that will deepen as it moves northeast into the central Great Lakes region Sunday. A warm front ahead of the low pressure system will move north across the area today and become nearly stationary until this evening. The front has been and will be the focusing mechanism for showers and even some strong thunderstorms today and tonight. Latest radar showed some showers and a few embedded thunderstorms moving east across the area at midnight. However, as the early morning progressed, over the last few hours, convection began to develop over Indiana and Illinois an is headed toward our forecast area. The more impressive air mass is south of the warm front where temperatures were still in the 60s and lower 70s with dewpoint temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. This air mass will lift north into the area by this evening along with some hodographs indicating fairly good shear across the area. As destabilization occurs, there is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across the area this evening. LCL heights are expected to be rather low and with shear profile, can't rule out a tornado threat as well. Would not be surprised as updates come out for severe weather threat that local area may be adjusted with an increased threat for severe thunderstorms. So stay tuned.

Warm front lifts north across the area today and after becoming stationary will lift north of the area tonight. The front will aid in warming temperatures across the area today well into the 60s. Temperatures will hover in the 60s for much of the area tonight for overnight lows and then climb even higher possibly touching 70 on Sunday in the warm sector. Some of the guidance is suggesting temperatures slightly higher than currently forecast but with rain and multi layer clouds, will hold temperatures down slightly.

Cold front moves east of the area Sunday and this will allow a surface trough from the low pressure system to rotate into the local area. Drier air will move in behind the front and this will reduce the threat for showers and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A vertically stacked upper level trough and strong surface low pressure system will be move across the Great Lakes region into southern Ontario Sunday night. Blustery conditions will continue Sunday night with southwesterly to westerly winds between 15 to 25 mph and occasional gusts up to 35 mph. Cloudy skies will remain with occasional scattered showers late Sunday night into Monday on the backside of the exiting storm system. As the flow becomes more northwesterly, colder air aloft at 850 mb will develop instability with moisture from the Great Lakes causing lake effect clouds and rain showers on Monday lingering into Monday night. The overall surface flow weakens by Tuesday with high pressure nosing down from north of the Great Lakes region. At this time, it looks like the clouds will hang on through the short term period and beyond into the long term period. An extended period of clouds, gloomy skies will be around for much of next week.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The next upper and mid level wave will move across the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. Additional rain showers will move across the area during the middle of the week. The overall weather pattern continues to look unsettled with a large upper level trough develop over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley late next week. A series of disturbances will rotate through the region with clouds and period of rain showers. Temperatures will remain on the cool side and slightly below average.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/. Showers and thunderstorms have been moving east across the area as a wave of low pressure slides east overhead. Thunderstorms have been producing frequent lightning, heavy rain, and hail but the stronger storms will exit to the east through 20Z. Additional showers and thunderstorms will lift north into the area this afternoon through this evening as the surface based warm front moves north ahead of a stronger low pressure system over Iowa. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to produce heavy rain with the potential for severe wind gusts this evening and again overnight as the cold front arrives from the west.

Much of northern Ohio is seeing low IFR conditions behind this wave with ceilings likely going to lower to IFR at CAK/YNG over the next 2 hours. Eventually ceilings will improve to potentially VFR as the warm front lifts north overnight with pockets of MVFR/IFR in heavy showers. VFR likely behind the cold front. Winds will be north to northeasterly until the warm front arrives with a wind shift to the south this evening. Southwest winds will become strong with the passage of the cold front early Sunday with winds gusting to 35-45 knots.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR conditions possible through Sunday in intermittent periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms.

MARINE. A warm front is slowly moving northward across Ohio today with a easterly flow increasing over the lake this morning. Easterly winds will be 15 to 20 knots today on the lake with slightly higher waves in the open waters. Will continue to monitor for any piling of water on the western basin due to the longer time period of the easterly flow for any minor lakeshore flooding today. The warm front will briefly move across the lake this evening with a gusty southerly to southwester flow 15 to 20 knots. A strong cold front will move across the lake Sunday morning with strong gusty southwest winds increasing 20 to 30 knot over the lake with gusts up to 45 possible. This will likely be a higher end Small Craft Advisory but if the winds appear to be any stronger than forecast, we could be approaching some Gales on the lake Sunday. This will be something to watch closely. An extended SCA conditions will lake Sunday night into Monday. Gusty winds become more westerly by Monday morning and will slowly relax late on Monday 10 to 15 knots. Weak high pressure moves in by Monday night with a light northerly flow 5 to 10 knots. But low pressure developing south of the lake Tuesday will develop gusty northeasterly winds 15 to 20 knots again.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>014- 018>023-089. PA . Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for PAZ001>003. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KEC/Lombardy NEAR TERM . Lombardy SHORT TERM . Griffin LONG TERM . Griffin AVIATION . KEC MARINE . Griffin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 11 mi54 min S 8 G 8.9 42°F 49°F1007.4 hPa42°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 14 mi54 min ESE 1 G 2.9 44°F 43°F1007.1 hPa42°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 28 mi114 min ENE 8 G 14 53°F
LORO1 43 mi54 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 43°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH5 mi39 minNW 42.50 miFog/Mist57°F55°F94%1007.4 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH17 mi31 minN 08.00 miOvercast47°F43°F86%1007.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE6NE6NE7E4SE4E5E3E5E5E5SE12NE5E4S5SE5N8E5SE5SE7S7E8N3NW4
1 day agoW7N7SW3N3N3NE7NE10NE8NE3NW5NE4N8NW6N5CalmN5E3E6NE6NE7NE5NE7NE6N9
2 days agoW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmS4SE4SE5SE6SE8S7S9S11S10S8S10S10SW8SW17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.