Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:54PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 9:13 PM EST (02:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:14AMMoonset 9:37PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night and Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain and snow.
Sat and Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming n. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure nudges into the region from quebec province on Wednesday, then into new england Thursday into Friday. A coastal storm is possible this weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.64, -70.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 290037 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 737 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Skies will remain cloudy through much of tonight. With cold northerly winds, scattered ocean effect rain showers will pass across the mid and outer Cape to Nantucket. As temperatures fall tonight, the rain will change over to light snow showers with some light accumulations possible into early Wednesday morning before tapering off. Dry, quiet conditions with near normal temperatures are expected for the remainder of Wednesday and into Thursday. This high moves offshore Friday with temperatures moderating. Still watching a potential coastal storm which may impact our region Saturday/Sat night. Dry, blustery and colder weather likely follows Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/.

No major changes to the forecast this evening. Ocean-effect showers continued to remain just offshore this evening. Minor tweaks to sky condition and temperatures to reflect observed trends.

Previous Discussion .

The majority of the model suite, especially the high res short range models, have continued to signal the ocean effect band to become better organized this evening E of Cape Cod, then shift southwestward through around midnight or so. The rain early this evening will change over to snow showers as temps fall back to the lower 30s.

The best chance for any light snow accumulations will occur across the outer arm of the Cape, but not expecting much more than an inch in isolated spots, if that. Possible to see a dusting of snow as far W as Hyannis. Also noting some possible snow showers developing across the E slopes of the Berkshires as another weak mid level short wave moves across. Should see any precip taper off after 06Z- 08Z, though might linger across the outer Cape until around daybreak.

Across the remainder of the interior, where dry conditions are expected, skies will begin to clear after midnight. Northerly winds will continue to 5-10 mph.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Wednesday and Wednesday night .

Clouds across east coastal areas will shift SE as high pressure slowly builds out of southern Ontario to central Quebec during Wednesday. Overall, expect a mostly sunny day. Expect high temps to be close to seasonal levels for late January, mainly from 30 to 35 across the higher terrain to the upper 30s to near 40 across the coastal plain. It will feel chilly, though, as north winds at 10-15 kt will bring wind chill values down to the 20s.

The high will remain across Quebec Wednesday night, but any leftover pressure gradient will relax. So, expect mainly clear skies across most areas with light northerly winds. Some clouds may linger across SE Mass as well as Cape Cod and the islands. It will be a cold night, however, with temperatures bottoming out in the single digits to the mid teens inland, ranging to the upper teens to mid 20s along the shoreline. These readings will run up to 5 degrees below seasonal normals inland.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Highlights .

* Mainly dry Thu into Fri with near to slightly below normal temperatures rebounding above normal by Fri

* Still monitoring for a potential storm Saturday/Sat night, but forecast confidence remains very low on details

* Mainly dry with above normal temperatures early next week

Details .

Large high pressure late this week should lead to dry weather. Near to below normal temperatures expected Thursday, until this high pressure passes by our region into Friday. Then temperatures are once again expected to be above normal.

Still monitoring the potential for a coastal storm sometime this weekend. The energy expected to be a part of this system should move over western North America tonight into tomorrow. Expecting most of the details to emerge from the noise over the next couple of days. There remains a large degree of spread in the ensemble solutions, so it is important to not lock in on a singular operational model run at this time.

The general idea from the 28/12Z guidance is for a low pressure to move northeast along the eastern Seaboard Saturday into Sunday. Still some question as to how close this low pressure tracks to southern New England, as well as when does it strengthen. The consensus solution is for a farther offshore track, with the strengthening occurring after this low passes us by. Only the operational GFS significantly deepened the low pressure closer to our region.

At this point, will continue to mention a broad period with a chance of rain and/or snow. Expecting changes with the details in later forecasts. This remains a low confidence portion of the forecast.

A drying trend should follow Sunday into early next week behind this departing cyclone. Thinking above normal temperatures for this portion of the forecast.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight .

VFR across most locations. MVFR CIGS develop across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires and across central and eastern Cape Cod as well as Nantucket. Best chance for MVFR CIGS and local MVFR VSBYS is across Cape Cod and Nantucket where scattered ocean effect rain and/or snow showers may fall.

Wednesday .

Any isolated snow showers across outer Cape Cod early will end with local MVFR CIGS/VSBYS through 13Z-14Z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. N-NW winds 10-15 kt, highest along E coastal terminals.

Wednesday night .

VFR conditions. Light N winds. Good visibility.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF through 00Z, then moderate confidence as MVFR ceilings move in across the mid and outer sections of Cape Cod into Nantucket and develop across N central/W Mass tonight.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/ .

Thursday through Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, with a slight chance SN.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN or RA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN, with a slight chance RA.

MARINE. Short Term /through Wednesday Night/ . High confidence.

Tonight . Winds becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered rain/snow showers across the eastern waters from east of Boston Harbor to near and east of Cape Cod and Nantucket. Visibility of 1 to 3 miles in precipitation. Good visibility elsewhere.

Wednesday . NW winds 10 to 15 kt gusts increasing to 15 to 20 kt during the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, approaching 5 ft across the eastern waters. Good visibility.

Wednesday night . N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt and seas building up to 5 to 6 ft on the eastern outer waters. Good visibility.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/ .

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain or snow.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain, with a slight chance of snow.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, with a slight chance of snow.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/EVT NEAR TERM . Belk/EVT SHORT TERM . EVT LONG TERM . Belk AVIATION . Belk/EVT MARINE . Belk/EVT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi88 min W 1 37°F 1009 hPa25°F
44090 22 mi43 min 39°F3 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 23 mi63 min 12 G 14 1009.6 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi73 min NW 16 G 17 38°F 1010 hPa (+1.6)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi61 min 37°F 40°F1010.2 hPa
FRXM3 28 mi61 min 38°F 24°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi61 min N 7 G 8 38°F 1010 hPa
PRUR1 34 mi55 min 38°F 22°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi88 min N 4.1 37°F 1010 hPa24°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi55 min N 5.1 G 8.9 38°F 1010.6 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi61 min NNW 15 G 18 37°F 40°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi55 min NW 7 G 11 38°F 36°F1010 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi55 min N 8 G 12 38°F 40°F1009.5 hPa
PVDR1 40 mi55 min NNW 7 G 11 38°F 1010.4 hPa22°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi61 min NW 7 G 12 38°F 40°F1010.3 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi55 min N 8.9 G 15 38°F 39°F1010.3 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 48 mi83 min NW 18 G 21 37°F 4 ft1008.7 hPa (+1.9)24°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi83 min NNW 16 G 19 37°F 42°F3 ft1009.1 hPa (+2.1)24°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi28 minN 310.00 miOvercast36°F23°F60%1009.8 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA16 mi20 minN 310.00 miOvercast36°F24°F62%1009.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA17 mi3.3 hrsWNW 310.00 miOvercast37°F21°F54%1008.3 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA19 mi21 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast35°F21°F59%1010.1 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA20 mi17 minNW 710.00 miOvercast38°F24°F57%1009.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW9NW6NW7--NW6NW6NW7NW9W8--N6N9N11N7N8N5N5N7NW5N3N3N3N3
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2 days agoSE20--SW10W15W15W15W15W10W10W12W10W11W12W12W13W14W17
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Tide / Current Tables for West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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West Falmouth Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:24 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:18 AM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:47 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:40 PM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.40.5000.411.82.73.53.93.831.90.80.200.30.81.42.233.63.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:27 AM EST     -4.20 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:29 AM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     3.99 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:43 AM EST     -0.13 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:42 PM EST     -4.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:52 PM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:55 PM EST     4.19 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-3.4-4.1-4.1-3.4-2.12.13.43.93.93.42.4-1.6-3.4-4.3-4.5-4-2.81.13.144.23.93.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.