Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:29PM Sunday July 5, 2020 4:44 PM EDT (20:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 5:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 428 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 428 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak surface low pressure trough will persist nearby into Monday, before a backdoor cold front passes through Monday afternoon into night. This front will lift toward the area on Tuesday afternoon, and lift north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. A southern low will approach and track near the area from the south Friday into Saturday, with a series of weak fronts moving through the area this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 052034 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 434 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front and upper-level trough will develop isolated showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across RI and eastern MA. A few storms may become strong to severe. Weak high pressure follows Monday and moves off the coast Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions move in for the middle and end of next week with scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Heat Advisories may be needed. Low pressure passing to our south Saturday could bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. With abundant moisture in place late in the week, any storms could produce locally torrential rainfall.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/.

*** Few Strong Storms remain possible in northeast MA including the Greater Boston area ***

435 PM Update .

Very warm to hot conditions across much of the region at 4 pm with 91 degs at BDL/BAF/HFD. However a weak cold front was moving across central MA into RI, providing a large dew pt boundary, with dew pts in the 50s behind the front and 65-70 head of the front across RI and eastern MA. As this boundary continues to advect east and interacts with seabreeze boundaries in I-495 corridor as seen on TBOS radar, this may provide sufficient low level forcing to initiate convection. CU field beginning to blossom a bit over the Worcester Hills into I-495 corridor, so this may be a sign for potential convection over the next 3-6 hrs.

Despite moderate instability (MLCAPE 1000 and 100 j/kg of 0-3 km CAPE) across RI and eastern MA in response to dew pts 65-70 and temps in the mid 80s, forcing for ascent is very weak and has precluded convection from firing so far. However with short wave trough well to the north across southern Quebec into ME, southern periphery of mid level forcing will bleed southward into northeast MA, including the Greater Boston area and possibly westward into the Worcester Hills. This is where 12z HREF has strongest potential updrafts along with 15z SREF Craven-Brooks exceeding 20000. Models typically struggle in these weakly forced environments but we continue to think the focus for convection this evening will be in northeast MA including Greater Boston area and possibly into the Worcester Hills. Main concerns with any storms will be strong winds, hail and heavy downpours. Although can't rule out an isolated storm over southeast MA and RI.

Otherwise a mild night but more comfortable across western CT/MA in the post frontal airmass. Still humid over RI and eastern MA with low clouds and fog for Cape Cod and Islands. Surface low develops on the boundary and tracks toward the south coast. This will shift winds to the north with cooler/less humid air bleeding south late.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/.

Monday .

Surface wave near Cape Cod early exits out to sea with weak high pressure building into the maritimes. This yields a light N-NE flow into the region, providing cooler temps for eastern MA with highs only in the 70s for the immediate coastline including Boston. This northeast flow is very shallow with 925 mb temps warming to +22C over western CT. This will support highs in the 80s across RI into central MA and topping out around 90 in the CT River Valley including Hartford. Not quite as humid as today with dew pts in the low to mid 60s except upper 50s in western MA. Dry weather for most of the region, the only exception is over western CT/MA where an isolated shower/T-storm possible given closer to deeper moisture/instability and low level convergence from warm front across eastern NY.

Monday night .

Mainly dry and less humid as 1023 mb maritime high builds southward into Gulf of ME and Cape Cod.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Highlights

* Heat and humidity returns for the middle and second half of the week - could reach 'Heat Advisory' status.

* Tropical moisture to influence Southern New England late week into next weekend.

Tuesday.

A quasi-stationary front will slowly drift from south to north across southern New England. This will give us the chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. CAPE values, especially across western MA/CT, are forecasted to be between 500 and 1200 J/kg. Additionally, it doesn't appear to be a washout of a day, but an isolated heavy downpour or two are possible as PWAT values are between 1.50" and 2.00".

Wednesday though Thursday.

We begin to crank up the heat for the mid-week. Temperatures at 850mb reach +15C to +17C. Mixing to those heights, temperatures at the surface should reach well into the upper 80s to low 90s across MA/RI/CT. Dewpoints will also become uncomfortable - reaching the low 70s. This will give us a Heat Index (apparent temperature) in the middle and upper 90s, which may require a 'Heat Advisory'.

Similar to last week, diurnal heating and sufficient SBCAPE between 1000 and 1500 J/kg will allow for pop-up thunderstorms.

Friday through next weekend.

As of 2 PM Saturday the National Hurricane Center gave an area of storms off the coast of Louisiana a 40 percent chance of tropical formation over the next five days. So far, the guidance suggests it will move across northern Florida and up the east coast. The Euro brings this area of low pressure up towards southern New England earlier Saturday, while the GFS is more progressive, having the arrival on Friday. What models do agree on is that there will be anomalously high PWAT values - around 2.00" to 2.50". That is between 2 to 3 standard deviations above average. With the possibility of heavy rain for an extended period of time, the threat for flooding will be monitored. Besides the threat for heavy rainfall - swells will increase off shore for Friday into much of next weekend. Confidence remains moderate for this period of the forecast.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z update .

Thru 00z .

VFR with isolated MVFR in TSRA in the I-95 corridor of RI/MA. Strong winds, hail and heavy rain main concerns. IFR/MVFR in low clouds continue over Cape Cod and Islands continues. S-SE winds along/near the coast from seabreeze.

After 00z .

Any isolated TSRA thru 02z/03z should be focused over northeast MA into NH, then diminishing thereafter. Elsewhere VFR except MVFR/IFR in low clouds/fog over Cape Cod and the Islands. Light SSW winds.

Monday .

VFR with light NE winds. Low risk of isolated an isolated -TSRA over CT into western MA.

Monday night .

VFR but trending toward MVFR/IFR in western CT/MA with low risk of isolated SHRA/TSRA. Light SE winds.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF. Greatest risk for TSRA 22z-01z this evening. Strong winds, large hail and brief heavy rain.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Mainly VFR and dry weather. Low risk of isolated SHRA/TSRA Monday afternoon and night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA, patchy BR.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA, patchy BR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE.

Tonight . Weak low pressure forms on a front over southern New England. Light S-SE winds ahead of the front along with low clouds and patchy fog. Chance of a T-storm over northeast MA waters.

Monday . weak low exits into Georges Bank with light N-NE winds over MA/RI waters. Dry weather and any vsby restrictions in the morning improve in the afternoon.

Monday night . 1023 mb high over the Maritimes provides dry/tranquil weather.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of thunderstorms, slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera/Gaucher/GAF NEAR TERM . Nocera SHORT TERM . Nocera LONG TERM . Gaucher/GAF AVIATION . Nocera/Gaucher/GAF MARINE . Nocera/Gaucher/GAF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi56 min SSW 6 G 7 78°F 72°F1012.7 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi56 min S 8 G 11 80°F 69°F1012.9 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi56 min SSW 7 G 11 81°F 70°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi51 minW 810.00 miFair91°F54°F28%1012 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi51 minNW 610.00 miFair90°F54°F29%1012.5 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi49 minS 99.00 miFair86°F69°F59%1013.5 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi53 minWNW 9 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F54°F28%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHFD

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5S10S7S7S6S6S5S5S4S5S6S4S35S4SW5SW4S5SE3S7W8W7W8
1 day agoE5NE4E5NE6NE6N6N6N5NE7N6NE5NE6N4N6N5N5N7N6N8NW6N6CalmE5SE4
2 days agoNW9NW7NW5NW6NW6CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4N6N7NE5CalmSE8E13
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Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 02:25 AM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:08 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:01 PM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:06 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.42.82.82.52.11.61.10.60.1-0.10.10.71.31.821.91.71.410.70.40.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 01:33 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:52 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:08 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.6332.82.31.71.10.50.1-0.10.20.91.522.22.11.81.51.10.70.30.20.61.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.