Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:46PM Monday August 19, 2019 1:07 PM EDT (17:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:02PMMoonset 9:44AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1226 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1226 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will approach the waters today and then weaken as it slowly moves across long island this evening. The weakening front will move farther south of long island late tonight into Tuesday. A wave of low pressure develops late Tuesday and approaches Tuesday night. A cold front approaches Wednesday and pushes through the waters by Thursday. High pressure builds in thereafter through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191127
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
727 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
Very warm and humid conditions will continue through mid week,
along with showers or thunderstorms at times. A cold front will
cross the region later this week, followed by cooler and drier
conditions.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Only minor tweaks to the forecast this morning. Already had a
few brief spot showers pop up over portions of northern ct and
southern ma. Increased pops slightly this morning, as latest
mesoanalysis showed some lingering instability near our region.

Shear remains rather weak, on the order of around 20 kt, so not
expecting any thunderstorms just yet. Both mid and low level
lapse rates were poor, but should increase rapidly with the
increased sunshine and high humidity.

Main concern today will be the risk for excessive heat. After
looking at observed conditions from Sunday, though it necessary
to expand a heat advisory into portions of eastern ma using the
lower 2-day threshold of 95 degrees.

Expecting another shortwave to trigger another round of showers
and thunderstorms. Questions remain with the timing. Should
thunderstorms not arrive before sunset, thinking we will see a
diminishing trend as these storms move east into southern new
england. While shear values should be slightly higher than what
we saw on Sunday, thinking it will not be enough to sustain
storms much past sunset. This potential will need to be
monitored through the day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Showers and thunderstorms diminish rather quickly after sunset,
leaving most of the night dry. Increasing risk for more showers
and thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon as a warm front passes
by.

Temperatures remain above normal, but dew points should not be
quite as high as today. This should prevent the need for a heat
advisory continuing into Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday-Thursday
* a cold front brings dry & cooler conditions Friday through the
weekend
details...

Tuesday night through Thursday... .

A series of shortwaves and a strong cold front will bring periodic
shower and thunderstorm chances through Thursday. Starting late
Tuesday early Wednesday a warm front will begin to make its way
north across the region. With this warm front comes a very humid
airmass (dewpoints rising from the 50s Tuesday to the low 70s early
Wednesday, and pwats back up near 2"). As mid level energy
associated with a weak shortwave moves through and interacts with
the warm front it initiates showers and thunderstorms. There is
potential for some strong thunderstorms given the moist warm sector
and CAPE values 2000-3000 j kg with moderate to good bulk shear (35-
45kts). Any storms that form could produce gusty winds and heavy
downpours given how much moisture is in the column. At the moment
the best chance for heavier rainfall looks to be areas north and
west, with less QPF over southeast ma coastal ri. However, we're
still too far out to nail down specifics with much confidence.

The surface low and upper trough over the great lakes region then
slides north and east late Wednesday to Thursday dragging its cold
front across southern new england overnight Thursday. Along and
ahead of the front we again see shower and thunderstorm chances with
>2000 j kg CAPE and good shear parameters (>40 kts bulk shear).

Temperatures remain relatively steady through this period in the
80s before a cool down arrives to end the week.

Friday through Sunday...

the cold front exits off the south coast or in the vicinity by
Friday morning leaving a cooler and much drier post frontal airmass
in its wake. Pwats drop to 0.5" while surface dewpoints in the low
50s will make the air feel refreshing compared to the previous week.

Surface high pressure and mid level ridging builds in through the
period bringing dry and pleasant weather through the weekend. Cold
pool aloft (850mb temps 7-10c) will allow for surface highs in the
70s each day.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Today... MainlyVFR. Any leftover MVFR-ifr in fog and stratus
improved toVFR by mid morning. Another round of scattered
shra tsra move in late this afternoon, with local ifr
conditions as they cross.

Tonight... Leftover shra tsra this evening with brief MVFR-ifr
conditions, thenVFR cigs. Patchy fog with MVFR-ifr vsbys mainly
after midnight.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR. Risk for scattered MVFR in shra tsra
Tuesday afternoon.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night:VFR. Chance shra and tsra.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra and
tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance shra and tsra.

Thursday:VFR. Chance shra and tsra.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Relatively tranquil boating conditions expected through Tuesday.

Winds generally less than 20 kt with seas of 4 feet or less. The
main concern will be the risk for fog across the eastern coastal
waters and around nantucket this morning with visibility less
than 1 nmi. Smaller risk of poor visibility in patchy fog
tonight around nantucket.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for ctz002-003.

Ma... Heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for maz005-011-013-014-017-018.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Belk bw
near term... Belk
short term... Belk
long term... Bw
aviation... Belk bw
marine... Belk bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi50 min S 7 G 8.9 78°F 77°F1014.7 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi56 min S 8 G 9.9 79°F 70°F1015.4 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 38 mi38 min S 8.9 G 8.9 73°F 1014.8 hPa71°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi62 min SSW 11 G 14 82°F 77°F1014.7 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi75 minSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds87°F72°F61%1014.4 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi75 minVar 510.00 miA Few Clouds86°F72°F63%1014.8 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi73 minSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds86°F75°F70%1015.9 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi77 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F71°F55%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHFD

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7
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3S6S9S3S6S10S6W7W3CalmS5S3S4CalmCalmCalmS4S3S5SW5SW6SW7S8
1 day ago6S6S11S8S8S7S7S7NW11
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CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE33CalmSE4
2 days agoS7SE7SE6S8S10S7SE6S7S7SE3SE4S4S4SE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm33S4S4

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
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Mon -- 12:19 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:41 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.51.11.622.22.11.81.51.20.90.60.40.40.81.41.92.12.121.71.41.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
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Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:25 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:34 PM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.21.82.22.42.321.61.20.90.60.40.40.91.522.32.32.21.81.41.10.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.