Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wethersfield, CT

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Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday August 17, 2019 11:42 PM EDT (03:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1053 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Overnight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1053 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front passes tonight as high pressure remains to the northeast. A wave of low pressure passes south of the area Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak cold front drops into the area Monday night and returns north as a warm front on Tuesday. Another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through Wednesday night. High pressure then builds in for the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wethersfield, CT
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location: 41.71, -72.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 180107
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
907 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
Very warm and humid conditions Sunday with an increasing risk
for some showers and thunderstorms. These conditions continue
through midweek, when a cold front will sweep through. Drier and
not as warm late next week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
9 pm update:
line of showers storms continues to march across sne. Trend over
past hour has been for slow weakening, although near-storm
environment is favorable for cores to briefly pulse and become
capable of producing wind damage. Expectation is the line will
weaken further once it reaches the worcester hills, but we could
still see some thunder make it into metro boston toward
midnight. Although conditions are not overly impressive for a
brief tornado, we still need to watch for possibility since
there is plenty of 0-3km cape, decent 0-3km shear, and low lcls.

Looks like shear is a bit weak in 0-1km layer, however.

Modified hourly pops to reflect this trend. Otherwise, light s
flow will bring more widespread low clouds and fog into sne
overnight.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
Sunday...

warm sector airmass across sne with boundary layer winds
turning sw. This will result in low clouds and patchy fog
burning off and giving way to at least partial sunshine. 850 mb
temps 17-18c which normally supports temps into the lower 90s,
but mixing depth may fall short of 850 mb so will go a bit
cooler with highs mid upper 80s with a few locations in ct
valley possibly reaching 90. Cooler along the coast where sea
breezes develop. Quite humid airmass with dewpoints into the
lower 70s.

Moderate instability develops in the afternoon with capes
1500-2000 j kg. While synoptic forcing is limited, enough
instability to support scattered showers t-storms in the
afternoon, mainly interior where best instability is located.

Sunday night...

expect scattered showers t-storms to linger into the evening as
decent instability persists within a well defined theta-e ridge.

Then convection diminishing overnight. Another warm and humid
night with lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Patchy low clouds and
fog may redevelop.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Guidance shows ridging over the southern usa, shifting to the SW us
during wed-fri as a hudson bay trough deepens and extends southward
into the eastern u.S. Sne remains under the influence of decent mid-
level flow, steering a series of shortwaves in our direction thru
mid-week. Exact timing is uncertain on the shortwaves passing thru,
but with increased moisture, each will have the ability to produce
some showers and possibly some thunderstorms to our area.

A cold front pushes south towards into our area Monday
night Tuesday. However there is model uncertainty on whether or not
the front pushes south of sne, at least for a period of time, or if
it stalls over our area. If the 12z NAM solution pans out, we could
get a brief reprieve on shower potential during Tuesday. However
because of the uncertainty, we will have a continued risk for
showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe. The front should
move back north of our area as a warm front during Tuesday
night Wednesday, which will keep or bring back an unstable airmass
over our area.

Then as the upper trough deepens and pushes short wave energy thru
the eastern great lakes region, a cold front will pass thru our
area. The cold frontal passage should pass thru our area during thu.

The approach and passage of this front will likely bring our
greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms for the week.

High pressure builds in from the west for fri-sat. The base of the
upper trough may lag behind, which could keep a cold pool over new
england on Friday. With much drier air in place, model QPF is
lacking, and for now will continue with this dry forecast. By
Saturday the upper trough should be to our east, with dry conditions
prevailing.

Until the cold front pushes east of our region on thu, it will be
very warm and humid. Dewpoints will remain in the mid 60s to low
70s, with relief from the humidity thu-fri. With temperatures rising
to around 90 degrees early next week, we may need heat advisories
for a time.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight...

widespread ifr lifr CIGS developing this evening, originating along
the southern coastline of ct ri ma, and spreading inland during
the night. Areas of fog, especially near the coast. A few
showers t-storms moving into western ma this evening before
weakening.

Sunday...

ifr conditions improving toVFR by late morning, but slower
improvement CAPE islands. Scattered showers t-storms developing
in the afternoon, mainly interior with brief lower conditions.

Sunday night...

patchy MVFR ifr stratus and patchy fog may develop, especially
near the coast. But low confidence in areal extent of lower
cigs vsbys. Scattered evening showers t-storms possible.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Expect CIGS to drop
to ifr tonight with risk of lifr cigs. Some fog but vsbys should
remain AOA 2 miles.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. A period of ifr cigs
expected later tonight.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Thursday night:VFR.

Friday:

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence.

Primary marine concern will be areas of fog and poor vsbys
tonight into Sun morning and and possibly another round sun
night. Generally light winds and seas through the period.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance
of thunderstorms.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance
of thunderstorms.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kjc nmb
near term... Jwd
short term... Kjc
long term... Nmb
aviation... Jwd
marine... Kjc nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi73 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 72°F 70°F1015.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 47 mi73 min E 5.1 G 5.1 74°F 76°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT1 mi50 minN 09.00 miFair71°F69°F94%1015.7 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT16 mi52 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F66°F93%1016.1 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT17 mi50 minW 75.00 miRain Fog/Mist74°F71°F91%1016 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi48 minN 00.15 miFog72°F71°F100%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHFD

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S4S4SE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm33S4S46S6S11S8S8S7S7S7NW11
G20
Calm
1 day agoS3CalmCalmSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS3S7SE7SE6S8S10S7SE6S7S7SE3
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N5N63CalmCalm3S55S5S10S10S10S8S6SE7Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
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Sat -- 03:43 AM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:20 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:10 PM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:35 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.31.92.22.32.21.91.51.20.80.40.20.30.91.51.92.12.11.91.61.210.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
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Sat -- 02:50 AM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:04 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:17 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:19 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.522.42.52.421.61.20.80.40.20.511.62.12.32.321.71.310.60.40.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.