Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Ridge, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:05PM Saturday December 14, 2019 9:09 AM EST (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:36PMMoonset 10:06AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ163 Expires:201912141545;;759627 Fzus61 Kcle 140848 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 348 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure 29.60 inches across west virginia this morning will be absorbed into a deepening low 29.30 inches across the mid- atlantic states. By evening, the low, deepened to 29.10 inches, will reach upstate new york and a cold front from the central lakes will be advancing across lake erie. High pressure 30.20 inches will shift across the lower lakes late Sunday. Low pressure, deepening to 29.60 i inches, will track from the mid- mississippi valley northeast to west virginia by early Tuesday. High pressure 30.30 inches will spread to the lake Wednesday. Lez162-163-141545- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- 348 am est Sat dec 14 2019
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers this morning, then a slight chance of rain showers early this afternoon. Patchy fog late this morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of snow overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Snow and rain likely during the day, then snow likely Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ163


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Ridge, OH
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location: 41.71, -83.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 141117 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 617 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over southern West Virginia will move northeast today and deepen rapidly. High pressure will build southeast through the central Great Lakes tonight through Sunday. Another low pressure system will move northeast through the Ohio Valley late Monday and Monday night and off the New England coast Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build northeast into the eastern Great Lakes through mid week followed by an Alberta Clipper Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Rain continues to spread north across the area. Winds shifted and continue to increase from the north at this time. Gradual transition of cooler air from north will take place and eventually start to change the rain over to snow from west to east. No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion .

An upper level trough of low pressure will move east across the Great Lakes and become negatively tilted by later this morning. The transition of the upper level trough will cause low pressure over southern West Virginia to rapidly intensify later this afternoon. The low will initially bring abundant moisture to the local area and then as the flow shifts around to the north, colder air will be forced south and this should change the precipitation over to all snow from west to east. Snow could be mixed with the rain over the western half of the forecast area through the morning hours. This will be a difficult forecast for northwest Pennsylvania because the changeover timing is highly dependent on how fast the cold air descends through the column. Model soundings indicate gradual cooling aloft and the surface being the last to go below freezing. Expecting heaviest snow to occur in northwest Pennsylvania to occur this afternoon and evening and then transition to lake effect that will affect northeast Ohio as well. Inversion height will rise to around 7000 feet tonight and enough synoptic moisture lingers to support snow. There is the possibility that we could see higher snow accumulations overnight depending on how organized the lake effect becomes. Snow threat diminishes Sunday afternoon and evening as inversion settles down and drier air works into the region. Therefore, will go ahead and hoist a winter weather advisory for inland Erie county in Pennsylvania. Snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches can be expected in the advisory area. Lesser accumulations expected along the lakeshore and south of Erie county.

For the rest of the forecast area, expecting the rain/snow mix in the west at Toledo/Findlay and mainly rain elsewhere. Then as low pulls out to the east, the threat for precipitation outside of the snowbelt areas diminishes.

Temperatures will likely max out by mid day across the area ahead of the cold air advection and will see colder temperatures tonight. Cold air advection will continue through tomorrow with highs in the lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Snow showers will be ending or diminishing to flurries fairly quickly Sunday evening. The flow will be backing with a brief stay of high pressure Sunday evening. The next system originating from the Texas panhandle will develop and move to the lower Ohio Valley for Monday night/Tuesday. With cold air initially in place and warm air advancing aloft, this system is likely to yield a wintry mix, especially across the southern/southeastern counties. Have freezing rain chances mentioned, but the track of the low will be critical and will need to closely monitor. This system may yield a Winter Weather Advisory for the area Monday into Monday night. Did limit PoPs some Sunday night/early Monday with an initial weak wave and a more southern track. Colder air filters in behind this system with a changeover to all snow Monday night. Snow departs Tuesday with dry air and backing flow. Lake effect to take over though late Tuesday night with another surge of colder air and deeper moisture. After temperatures staying within an upper 20 to low/mid 30s range from Sunday night through Tuesday, Tuesday night's lows are expected to drop into the teens.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. With the surge of colder air for Wednesday/Thursday and a continued west-northwest flow, lake effect snow will be a possibility. Will need to refine precip chances for the snowbelt with coming days. There is a lot of variation in the amount of moisture that will be available. Toward Friday, the upper ridge begins to build/shift overhead. Therefore for Wed/Thu will have highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s respectively, moderating to the mid/upper 30s for Friday.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/. A mix of VFR to LIFR expected across the local area as low pressure moves northeast along the Appalachian Mountains. This system will continue to bring rain that will become mixed with and change over to snow as colder air moves into the area behind the low. The problem with this forecast is that temperatures are still tricky in timing the changeover to snow. Plan on best chance of snow over the eastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon into tonight. Patchy dense fog is affecting the portions of the area at this time and will remain through the morning hours. Improving visibilities will take place in the fog department after sunrise. Some improvement of conditions will take place later tonight as low pressure pulls out to the northeast. There is the possibility for some lake effect snow developing tonight at Erie.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible Monday and Tuesday with periods of rain and/or snow.

MARINE. Have made timing and areal adjustments to the upcoming Small Craft Advisory with the latest wind and wave guidance. Deepening low pressure moving from the mid-Atlantic to New England today will increase winds on the lake and bring them around from the north to the west-northwest. West winds will continue from tonight into Sunday with a peak a solid 30 knots. Not anticipating any Gale concerns though with the low center quite removed from the local area. Wind/waves diminish/subside later Sunday. Winds will back with a brief stay of high pressure Sunday night, but respond to low pressure moving from the mid-Mississippi Valley to West Virginia between Monday and Tuesday. Northeast to northwest winds will make for a choppy lake early Tuesday. Will likely need a Small Craft Advisory by Tuesday evening through Wednesday with a stronger west- northwest flow between an advancing cold front cross the Great Lakes and a building high across the Ohio Valley.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Sunday for PAZ002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ143-144. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ145-146.

SYNOPSIS . Lombardy NEAR TERM . Lombardy SHORT TERM . Oudeman LONG TERM . Oudeman AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 10 mi129 min NW 8 G 8.9 36°F
TWCO1 10 mi109 min NW 8.9 G 13
CMPO1 12 mi99 min WNW 5.1 G 6 36°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi69 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 36°F 1003.3 hPa (-1.4)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 21 mi129 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 35°F 1004.1 hPa (-1.6)32°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 22 mi135 min W 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 36°F1002.8 hPa35°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 35 mi69 min WNW 7 G 8.9 36°F 1001 hPa (-1.7)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 38 mi84 min W 1 37°F 1002 hPa35°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI24 mi14 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist32°F29°F89%1003 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH24 mi16 minW 31.50 miFog/Mist35°F34°F96%1003.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9S7SW10SW5S6S5S6SE3CalmE3CalmE3E4CalmCalmCalmN3SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmW3
1 day agoS10S13S12S14S9SE8S11S10S11S9S9S10S12S11S12S8S9S6S9S9S6S8S7S7
2 days agoW18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.