Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Ridge, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:32PM Saturday August 17, 2019 10:15 AM EDT (14:15 UTC) Moonrise 8:55PMMoonset 7:31AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ163 Expires:201908172015;;776017 Fzus61 Kcle 171305 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 905 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A weak warm front will lift north of the lake Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest and transition into a west-to-east oriented stationary front near the lake on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will move east across the lake on Wednesday. High pressure of 30.10 inches builds in from the northwest on Friday. Lez162-163-172015- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- 905 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ163


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Ridge, OH
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location: 41.71, -83.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 171327
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
927 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A zonal flow will set up across the great lakes region this
weekend through the early part of next week which will bring an
active weather pattern as well as above average temperatures. A
trough will cross the great lakes region towards the middle of
next week bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for
the end of the week.

Near term through Sunday
Surface cold front lingers across southern michigan with a warm
and moist airmass across ohio and pa this morning. Warm air
advection today along with some moisture pooling will push dew
points around 70 this afternoon. Forecast concern for today
will be the location of the shower initialization this
afternoon. MCS over il this morning expected to dissipate as it
drifts east into in and then oh this afternoon. A weak vort max
ahead of this feature triggered a few showers in in W oh this
morning which continue to dissipate as the energy moves out.

Will monitor this system as models have a hard time with these
types of complexes. Overall the environment will favor some
isolated to scattered convection this afternoon as we
destabilize with temperatures in the mid 80s, warmest east away
from the MCS debris clouds. Bulk shear values around 35 kt this
afternoon with mucapes around 2k will be sufficient for some
strong to severe storms. The main threat will be damaging wind
gusts up to 65 mph and large hail up to quarter size.

It appears the weather and storms may calm down after midnight
through early Sunday morning. There will be another series of
mcvs riding along the mid level flow but timing will be hard
more than 24 hours out. One MCV may reach far northwest ohio by
12z Sunday morning with another round of possible storms for
that part of ohio and the western basin of lake erie. The mcv
depicted by the models which appears to move across northern
indiana towards lake erie by 21z may be the one to watch more
closely due to it coming across during peak daytime heating and
a little better thermodynamics. The main story for tomorrow will
be again the chance for additional storms in the afternoon with
a few severe possible. Temperatures will be running warmer than
average, in the middle and upper 80s with humid conditions.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
Instability will linger into the Sunday overnight hours, allowing
scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist. A cold front will
approach from the northwest Monday morning and slow down into a weak
west-east oriented stationary front over our forecast area. Although
there is weak upper level forcing, MUCAPE ranging between 2000-3000
j kg will be plenty to support mostly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong downburst winds
and some hail on Monday and Tuesday. There won't be too much
vertical wind shear each of these days, so there won't be much
organized convection and any threat of severe weather will remain
isolated. Flooding could be a concern with a weak stationary front
over our area. Pwat is expected to range between 1.6 and 1.8 with
mean storm motions around 15 to 20 knots. While these numbers aren't
particularly concerning, the presence of a stationary front along
with this environment could prove problematic if we get training
thunderstorms.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
A large digging upper trough is expected to move southeast across
ontario and into the upper great lakes region Wednesday. A surface
low is expected to develop over ontario and into western quebec. A
cold front extending from the low is expected to sweep through our
forecast area on Wednesday afternoon. A relatively warm, moist
atmosphere will still be in place ahead of this front. With slightly
higher deep layer shear of 25 to 30 knots present on Wednesday,
convection that initiates along and ahead of this cold front should
be more organized that Monday and Tuesday's convection. The threat
for severe weather will be a little bit higher on this day is the
passage of the cold front is during the afternoon when it is most
diurnally favorable. High pressure will follow on Thursday and
Friday, with a big airmass change. Expect mostly sunny skies,
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and dew points in the upper 50s
on Thursday and Friday, all of which are far more comfortable than
the preceding days.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
GenerallyVFR conditions are expected through the next 24 to 30
hours with the exception around convection and scattered
showers where brief MVFR to ifr could be possible. There may be
some vcts between 18z and 21z but not confident enough to
mention in tafs at this point. Have targeted the best potential
for scattered afternoon and evening convection to possibly
impact TAF sites between 21z and 24z in prob30 groups. There is
a very limited chance for a couple strong to severe storms as
well across the region this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
winds will be generally 5 to 11 knots from the south or
southwest during the next 24 hours.

Outlook... Intervals of non-vfr possible primarily with
thunderstorms daily through Tuesday.

Marine
Generally west to southwest flow will persist through the weekend. A
west to east oriented stationary front is expected to be present
over or south of the lake on Monday and Tuesday, making winds and
waves a little more variable on those days. Scattered thunderstorms
remain in the forecast through Wednesday. A cold front will move
east across the area Wednesday afternoon. Northerly winds of 10 to
15 knots will follow this, bringing waves of 2 to 4 feet,
likely to be the highest waves in the forecast period.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Griffin
near term... Jamison
short term... Saunders
long term... Saunders
aviation... Griffin
marine... Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 10 mi76 min SW 13 G 14 73°F
45165 10 mi16 min W 5.8 G 7.8 74°F 76°F1 ft69°F
TWCO1 10 mi16 min W 8 G 9.9 76°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi76 min WSW 15 G 16 74°F 1013.9 hPa (+2.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 21 mi46 min W 5.1 G 8 74°F 1013.9 hPa67°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 22 mi46 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 75°F 77°F1013.9 hPa68°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 35 mi76 min WSW 9.9 G 16 74°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.6)
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 36 mi36 min WSW 14 G 18 75°F 1014.2 hPa70°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 38 mi91 min SSW 2.9 75°F 1014 hPa67°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH24 mi23 minSW 79.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F70°F84%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3NW4W44CalmS8SW9SW7SW9SW7S4S3S4SE5SE5SW7S4S4SW5SW5S6S5SW7SW9
1 day agoE7E4NE6E3NE8NE7NE5NE8SE10E8E5NW7N6NW7N5W5NW6NW5NW7NW3W4W3NW4Calm
2 days agoE6N4N55NE65NE10E9E7E7E8E5
G14
CalmNE3E4NE5NE6NE5CalmCalmNE4E4E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.