Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Painesville, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 4:56PM Friday December 13, 2019 2:31 AM EST (07:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:26PMMoonset 9:02AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:201912130915;;265613 Fzus51 Kcle 130215 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 915 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez146>149-130915- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 915 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy late this evening, then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Rain likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Rain likely. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 38 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 40 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painesville, OH
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location: 41.72, -81.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 130609 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 109 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

. 06Z Aviation Update .

SYNOPSIS. A low moving east across the upper Great Lakes will merge with a deepening low that moves up the East Coast on Friday and Saturday. The associated cold front will move east across the area on Saturday night. High pressure builds east across the area on Sunday and Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 910 PM DISCUSSION . The near-term forecast remains valid. No updates appeared necessary late this evening.

643 PM DISCUSSION . Most of our near-term forecast remains valid. However, adjusted hourly temperatures and dew points through early Friday morning to better match observed trends. Also used NBM guidance to freshen sky cover through Friday morning given observed and expected trends. During this time frame, our skies will likely trend partly to mostly cloudy due to isentropic lift amidst sufficient mid- and upper-level moisture ahead of a longwave trough approaching from the west.

337 PM DISCUSSION . Quiet weather today will continue through tonight and much of the day tomorrow. High cirrus expected to linger across the area this evening before giving away to mostly clear skies late tonight into tomorrow morning. Southerly winds will remain elevated tonight into early tomorrow afternoon as pressure gradient remains tight over the area. Southerly winds should keep temperatures from decreasing too much tonight with low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

As mentioned in the synopsis, low pressure over the Great Lakes will merge with a deepening low that moves up the east Coast, with low pressure of around 1000 mb situated over eastern Pennsylvania by 12 UTC Saturday. Precipitation associated with this deepening low will approach from the south, beginning to enter our southern counties around 00 to 03 UTC. This is anticipated to begin as mostly rain with some rain/snow mix in northwest Ohio, where temperatures are expected to hover in the mid to low 30s. As temperatures decrease slightly overnight, a mix of rain/snow and even some areas of all snow will begin creep into central and north-central Ohio late Friday night. Only dusting of snow at most is expected through this period where all snow occurs.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The short term begins Saturday with low pressure to our west over Illinois weakening and becoming absorbed in the developing broad coastal low centered along the Jersey Shore. The coastal low will already be dominant by this point however with deep moisture from the low wrapping west across much of the CWA. Temps at 850mb around 0C to +2C so not low enough for snow. Expect temps across the central and eastern counties to be in the mid 30s in the morning where pops are best (likely to categorical) so will go with rain as the primary ptype. Far west where early morning surface temps are closer to 32, will allow for a few hours of a rain snow mix with low chance pops. This coastal low will continue to develop rapidly as it tracks northeast through New England Saturday night into Sunday as High pressure moves into the Northern Plains. Colder air will continue to funnel into the area between these two system, eventually arriving Saturday night taking 850mb temps down to -10C by Morning on Sunday as drier air moves in from the west. Saturday night precip should taper from the west as the effect of Lake Erie begin to dominate. Will have likely to categorical pops for the snowbelt Saturday night into early Sunday and then drop to chance pops for the afternoon. Monday's storm will be interesting for the area. For the day, differences between the GFS and ECMWF are not huge but a still big enough for the area to matter. Both agree on bringing deep moisture into the area although the GFS is more aggressive. Temps at 850mb by 00Z Tuesday are above 0C on the GFS but remain below freezing on the ECMWF. Will bring a chance of snow north into the area during the morning with snow changing to rain through the central portion of the area as warmer air moves north in the lower levels. Will keep the corners in snow for now. Highs Saturday around 40. Highs Sunday and Monday low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The long term joins a winter storm currently in progress. Of course the big question which cannot yet be answered is the details of the storm given model differences. Monday night into Tuesday the GFS bring the surface low north across the eastern half of Ohio reaching central NY by 12Z Tuesday. The ECMWF track is slower and further east of the GFS track with the 12Z position in VA. The GFS keeps the swath of most significant snow to our west and north while the ECMWF should be closer to the area but possibly to our southeast. Of course, lake effect should kick in behind the low beginning mainly Tuesday night as 850mb temps plunge toward -18C by Wednesday 12Z. For now, starting Monday evening, the GFS does bring enough warm air into northwest Oh and nwrn PA to possibly give us a few hours of freezing rain so will put that possibility in. The rest of the area will begin as rain although given to colder ECMWF will also have it mixed with snow. As colder air move in, the remainder expect a transition to all snow overnight. Tuesday will continue with chance pops early, decreasing from the west during the afternoon as drier air moves in. Will have likely pops for snow showers off the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thursday we should see a warmup as the Arctic air retreats.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. VFR across all TAF sites through this morning with south to southeasterly winds 5-10 knots across the area. The exception is at ERI where persistent southeasterly flow has resulted in downslope winds of 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots which should last throughout the day Friday.

The end of the TAF period, 0-6Z Saturday, looks to be quite active with approaching rain showers from the south/southeast, resulting in tanking ceilings and visibilities. Some MVFR pockets appear possible at CAK/YNG Friday afternoon, but expecting all TAF sites to fall to MVFR or IFR by late Friday night into Saturday morning. LIFR ceilings are not out of the question late Friday night into Saturday morning, especially at CLE and eastwards.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR likely beginning Friday night and lingering through Sunday due to rain and/or snow. Non-VFR possible on Monday and Tuesday with periods of rain and/or snow.

MARINE. High pressure over the lake will move east tonight allowing southerly winds to increase to 15 to 20 knots or so across the nearshore with winds approaching 25 knots in the open waters. For now will not issue a small craft advisory but conditions will approach criteria well away from shore. Winds drop back a bit on Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds will remain light Friday night through Saturday before increasing out of the northwest Saturday night to near 20 knots as low pressure deepens significantly across New England forcing a cold front across the lake. Expect another small craft advisory beginning Saturday night. Winds will remain 20 to 25 knots from the west to northwest Sunday in cold advection. Winds and waves diminish Sunday night as high pressure builds across the lake. Monday night into Tuesday deepening low pressure will move north through the Tennessee Valley across Ohio along a path just southeast of the lake. Expect winds to increase from the east and southeast early Monday backing all the way to westerly as the low passes Tuesday. Winds will remain below gale through the period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . Jaszka/Saunders SHORT TERM . TK LONG TERM . TK AVIATION . Kahn MARINE . TK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 4 mi43 min S 18 G 22 35°F 37°F1022 hPa22°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 17 mi61 min S 12 G 21 33°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 24 mi49 min S 7 G 14 35°F 40°F1021.9 hPa18°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH16 mi36 minSSE 12 G 1710.00 miFair34°F19°F56%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW16
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W11--SW11SW13SW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.