Friday, October30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor-on-the-Lake, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 6:23PM Friday October 30, 2020 12:35 PM EDT (16:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:18PMMoonset 5:46AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:202010301415;;058477 Fzus51 Kcle 300741 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 341 Am Edt Fri Oct 30 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez143>147-301415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 341 Am Edt Fri Oct 30 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Today..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers early, then a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 52 degrees, off cleveland 57 degrees, and off erie 56 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor-on-the-Lake, OH
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location: 41.72, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 301341 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 941 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. A trough exits eastward from our region by midday today and will be followed by a high pressure ridge building from the Upper Midwest through Saturday morning. This ridge begins to exit eastward Saturday afternoon and should be followed by a warm front sweeping northward through our area Saturday night. A cold front sweeps eastward through the local area on Sunday as a low moves eastward across James Bay and northern Quebec.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. 10 AM Update . Lake effect continuing along as expected. Additional forcing/lift from mid-level vorticity advection and upper-level jet support will result in continue lake effect through the afternoon/evening hours. Lake effect will diminish this evening and into early tonight as drier, more sheared conditions move into the area.

Previous Discussion . A longwave trough exits our CWA to the east and is followed by a building longwave ridge today. At the surface, a lingering trough exits eastward around midday and is followed by a high pressure ridge building from the Upper Midwest. Scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers continue to stream generally southward from Lake Erie this morning, with the most persistent showers expected to remain concentrated across much of northeast and north-central OH, including the Cleveland metro area. Any lake effect precip that falls in interior northwest PA may fall as wet snow or a rain/snow mix through daybreak.

This afternoon, lake effect rain showers stream southeastward in and near the snowbelt as the mean steering flow backs to northwesterly. These rain showers should become lighter and isolated with time as lake-induced CAPE wanes via low-level dry air advection and a lowering subsidence inversion. Fair weather is expected outside the lake effect precip. Today will be chilly, with below-normal highs mainly in the lower to mid 40's. Highs should not eclipse the upper 30's in the higher terrain of northwest PA.

The high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft crests over our region tonight. Lingering light and isolated lake effect rain showers over and southeast of Lake Erie should end shortly after nightfall as the stabilizing ridge reduces lake-induced CAPE further. Otherwise, fair weather, clearing skies, and easing surface winds will promote efficient radiational cooling. Widespread lows in the mid to upper 20's are expected inland from Lake Erie. Lows should reach the lower to mid 30's along and very near the lakeshore. Widespread frost will likely form toward daybreak and patchy fog may develop.

High pressure at the surface and aloft begins to exit to the east, but will continue to influence our weather on Halloween. Any fog should disappear shortly after daybreak. It will be milder and dry with mainly clear skies. Afternoon highs should primarily reach the low to mid 50's as south-southeasterly to southerly surface winds yield low-level warm air advection.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A strong cold front associated with a deepening low pressure system north of the Great Lakes region is expected to move across the area Saturday night into early Sunday. As a result, gusty southerly winds will increase and transition to west-northwesterly winds at 20 to 25 knots, with higher gusts expected. Rain is also expected with this frontal boundary, with NW OH and NW PA expected to have the best chances. Widespread showers should diminish by Monday morning, other than for the snowbelt areas. This cold front will bring in much cooler temperatures as highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 40s, transitioning into overnight lows dropping down into the upper 20s to low 30s. With gusty winds continuing, areas could see wind chill values dipping down into the teens.

With this system, confidence in NW PA, and possibly some areas of NE OH, receiving lake effect snow showers is increasing. Models are suggesting that the cold northwesterly winds across a warmer Lake Erie will result in lake induced CAPE near 1000 J/kg Sunday night into Monday. Coupled with that, models are suggesting the lake induced equilibrium level approaching 17,000-20,000 feet. This set up look quite conducive to lake effect snow for the primary snow belt areas, however with the ground still relatively warm and uncertainty on transition timing from rain to snow, still continuing to mention only light accumulations across the area. The highest of those accumulations will occur in the higher elevation of NW PA. Winds will shift by the end of the short term period and result in lake effect showers ending.

High temperatures on Monday will be much cooler in the low to mid 40s with overnight lows again dropping into the low 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. After a very active short term period, an upper level ridge builds over much of the contiguous United States, and will bring the area dry and warmer conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. A southwesterly flow will advect warmer air into the area, allowing high temperatures to gradually rise to be in the low to mid 60s by Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be a bit milder with temperatures only dropping into the low to mid 40s.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. A surface trough exits our region to the east by around midday. Thereafter, a surface high pressure ridge builds from the west through 12Z/Sat. Northeasterly to northwesterly surface winds of about 5 to 15 knots are expected through this early evening. Surface winds should then trend light and variable through the end of the TAF period.

Extensive VFR to MVFR ceilings persist this morning, while pockets of IFR ceilings are possible. These low-level ceilings will very gradually clear our region generally from west to east this early afternoon through the predawn hours of Saturday morning.

Scattered rain showers associated with a disturbance aloft move southeastward through northeast OH and northwest PA through this early afternoon. Also, lake effect rain showers stream generally southward from Lake Erie this morning and then southeastward this afternoon before ending by around 00Z/Sat. These showers may reduce visibility to MVFR at times. Otherwise, dry weather is forecast through the TAF period.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible with patchy fog around daybreak Saturday. Periods of rain and/or snow with non-VFR possible Sunday through Tuesday morning.

MARINE. Remnants of Zeta have resulted in the strong north-northeasterly winds across much of Lake Erie and the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory through mid-morning on Friday. Winds will be variable at 5 to 10 knots on Friday and Saturday as a high pressure builds across the eastern United States. The next impactful system won't be far behind as an upper level trough approaches the area Saturday evening, resulting in southerly winds beginning to increase to 10 to 15 knots, gusting to 25 knots ahead of the associated cold front. On Sunday, as a strong cold front moves east across the lake, westerly winds will increase to be sustained near 30 knots, gusting up to 50 knots. This is continuing to be monitored for the need of a potential gale headline for portions of the central and eastern basins, as models are becoming more consistent with gale force winds in the forecast. It is very likely that at least a Small Craft Advisory will be issued for Sunday at some point forward. Winds will shift to northwesterly by Monday morning and begin to weaken as the pressure gradient over the lake weakens and high pressure begins to push into the area. Winds will finally calm down by Tuesday morning and remain primarily out of the west, before shifting to the southwest on Wednesday and increasing to 10 to 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ143>149.

SYNOPSIS . Jaszka NEAR TERM . Jaszka/Saunders SHORT TERM . Campbell LONG TERM . Campbell AVIATION . Jaszka MARINE . Campbell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 5 mi47 min NNW 20 G 23 44°F 50°F1019.1 hPa44°F
45164 18 mi35 min 57°F4 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi47 min NNW 17 G 21 43°F 56°F1020.5 hPa32°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 23 mi65 min NNW 19 G 24
LORO1 47 mi65 min NNW 19 G 23 44°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH12 mi50 minN 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast43°F33°F71%1020 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi42 minNNW 1510.00 miOvercast46°F33°F61%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE5NE5E7N3CalmN6NE10NE5NE4NE7NE13
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1 day agoSW9W9W10SW14SW7SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE4S4SE5E5SE5Calm
2 days agoSW3CalmNW4CalmN5N5E3SE4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm--SW6SW7SW7W8SW8SW7SW7SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.