Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Dennis, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:12PM Friday December 6, 2019 2:07 PM EST (19:07 UTC) Moonrise 2:31PMMoonset 1:58AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 117 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain with a chance of snow.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun and Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night and Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 117 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A fast moving low pres system will approach from the west this afternoon and cross the waters this evening. Large high pres then builds in from the west Sat into Sat night. The high pres system moves off the coast Sun as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west Mon into Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Dennis, MA
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location: 41.75, -70.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 061720 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1220 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. Clouds will increase ahead of a fast-moving clipper system that will push through with periods of light snow this afternoon and early evening. Best chance of seeing light accumulations is along and north of the MA turnpike. The East Slopes of the Berkshires could see upwards of 3 inches. Colder, drier air moves in Friday night and Saturday as high pressure brings dry weather for the weekend. The high moves offshore Sunday, starting a return flow of milder and moist air for the first half of the week. This will bring off and on rain for Monday and Tuesday. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, followed by a return to cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 1215PM Update .

Light snow is moving across Western MA but has mostly not made it to the ground east of the Berkshires. Did note that KORE is now observing light snow. Temperatures have made it into the low 30s north of the MA turnpike and mid 30s south. This is on track with the forecast for light accumulating snow north of the turnpike and a coating at best south due to above freezing temperatures resulting in a rain/snow mix or just plain rain. High res guidance have hinted at wrap around moisture for northeast MA, including Essex and northern Middlesex counties. So have indicated the potential for up to 2 inches of snow in this area. Also hinted at the potential for 3 inches of snow for the highest elevations in Franklin county, MA. Not confident enough about the spatial extent of 3 inches plus so have opted not to issue a Winter Weather Advisory. Updated the Special Weather Statement to include higher snow totals for aforementioned areas.

Previous Discussion .

***A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG & NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.***

Satellite shows clouds mostly clearing out early this morning, but it will be short lived. Looking upstream we see the deck of mid level clouds making its way toward southern New England. These will fill in from west to east by sunrise in western MA/CT and eastern MA by 9-10 AM.

These clouds precede a quick hitting clipper type system that will strength over the Great Lakes in the next several hours before crossing directly over southern New England with its surface arctic front from 21-03Z (4-10 pm). This system brings our next shot of snow and rain. At the upper levels we have good jet dynamics in play beneath the RRQ of a modest upper jet which will help increase synoptic lift while in the lower levels speed convergence on the front of a 50 kt LLJ will enhance precip formation. The very progressive nature of the storm should limit snowfall to generally late morning through early evening, with accumulations of only a coating to 2 inches for most, mainly along and north of the MA Pike, and perhaps some spots of 2-3 inches in the highest elevations of the Berkshires. Nearly all guidance is in favor of this solution, with the latest EPS giving a 0% chance of >3" in southern New England, and the 00Z HREF mean guidance trending down toward the synoptic models. Given the amounts expected, we will continue to message this with a Special Weather Statement highlighting the impact that it may have to the evening commute. Those in eastern/central MA will continue to be impacted by snow showers during the Friday evening rush hour which could cause some additional travel hazards. Winds will also become breezy as the pressure gradient tightens south of the low, mainly along the south coast and over the southern waters where mixing is better; winds gust 25-30 mph.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Snow and rain showers should be tapering off in extreme eastern MA by 8-10 pm as the low center makes a hasty exit. Winds slowly but steadily decrease as a sprawling surface high moves in and the gradient relaxes. With this we also see post frontal NW winds begin to bring in much cooler air, though the breezy winds will likely limit much contribution from radiational cooling. Even so, temperatures dip into the teens to low 20s; warmer on the south coast.

Saturday colder and drier air funnels into the region as high pressure builds in, though cyclonic flow lingers aloft. Subsidence under this high will keep things dry and skies mostly clear, though there is still some question as to whether we'll see more diurnal clouds than are currently forecast given that tendency under cyclonic flow with CAA and daytime heating. Overall a very nice, if cold, day with high temperatures in the upper 20s (higher elevations) to low 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Big Picture .

Zonal flow over the weekend, but this changes early next week as a digging upper trough sweeps south from the Canadian Prairies into the USA Plains and Great Lakes. This digging trough turns the flow over the Eastern USA out of the south and southwest, drawing milder air up over us as well as increasing moisture. The trough axis then moves across our area Wednesday with drier air moving in.

Normal 500-mb heights in this area in early December are in the upper 540s and 550s. Forecast heights moderate to the higher/warmer side Sunday through Tuesday. These values then lower again Tuesday night through Thursday as the upper trough moves overhead. Expect a milder trend for early next week, and a return to colder temps midweek.

Mass fields and thermal fields in the models are similar through Monday but then show some model-to-model differences midweek. This means moderate to high confidence through the early week, then diminishing confidence midweek.

Daily Concerns .

Saturday night and Sunday .

High pressure builds over the region with sufficient subsidence to bring clearing skies and light wind. This will allow for radiational cooling Saturday night, With dew points in the upper single numbers and teens, that should allow temperatures to fall to similar values overnight . possibly around 20 near the coast.

The high pressure slides offshore Sunday, making room for milder air to move north. The milder air will move earliest at the higher levels, which may bring some mid and high clouds Sunday afternoon. Overall a fair day. Temps at 925 mb and 950 mb were used to represent the lingering cold air near the surface. Those values will support max sfc temps in the 30s to low 40s.

Increasing south to southwest flow Sunday night will bring increasing clouds. The flow itself will be strong with speeds increasing to 40-50 kt overnight. Not sure how much of this will reach the surface in gusts, but suspect the warm advection will work against any mixing.

The 00Z GGEM brings light precipitation into our area late at night, while the 00z GFS and ECMWF keep precipitation just south of us. Guidance is more aggressive with POP values. The forecast will trim values below 15 pct for most of the night based on the dry air forecast in the nucleation zone for Sunday night, as seen in BUFKit soundings.

With the warm advection in place, expect min temps in the early night followed by warming temps overnight. Temperatures will be above freezing all areas after midnight, so any late night precip should be as rain.

Monday-Tuesday .

Mild south-southwest flow will continue to bring warmer air and increased moisture. PW values will climb over 1 inch and RH fields show a deep column of moisture over us for Monday and Tuesday. Low level jet at 50-60 kt will support low level convergence and lift while also supplying the moisture. The GFS and ECMWF show a 150-kt upper level jet approaching on Monday. The GFS shows Srn New England in the left exit region for at least a part of the time while the ECMWF is a tad farther north. All of this points to good lift and good moisture both days, and a deep layer of above-freezing temps supports max sfc temps mainly in the 50s each day. Will forecast showers both days.

Another concern will be winds. A low level southerly jet of 50-60 kt will linger overhead through the period and may bring gusts of 30 to 40 mph down to the surface each day. Gridded guidance is much more conservative. The forecast will increase winds from the grid guidance closer to 25 kt/30 mph, and it may need to go higher in later forecasts.

The upper trough pushes a cold front through our area Tuesday night, with showers diminishing after passage.

Wednesday-Thursday .

Colder drier air moves in Wednesday. Cold advection will encourage mixing 35-45 mph winds to the surface in gusts. High pressure builds in by Thursday with fewer clouds and lighter winds. Mixing to 850 mb will tap -10C air Wednesday and -18C air Thursday. Will go with max temps 35-45 Wednesday and 20s to mid 30s Thursday.

AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/ . High confidence.

Today . VFR initially, but cigs will lower to MVFR along with brief periods of light to moderate snow 19z-02z. Expecting mainly rain across the Cape and Islands and a period of a rain/snow mix at PVD. Potential for brief periods of IFR across northern MA, including BOS, with any heavier snow bands moving through. Precipitation ends from west to east Friday evening.

Tonight . MVFR north of the Mass Pike, VFR to the south. Trend to VFR all areas between 00Z and 06Z with clearing skies after midnight.

Saturday . VFR. Light NW winds.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Moderate confidence after 18Z.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR. Breezy. Patchy BR.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Patchy BR.

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely.

MARINE. Short Term /through Saturday/ . High confidence.

Today . NW winds decrease and become SW through the morning and early afternoon before increasing again tonight. Winds on the southern waters gust 25-35 kts this evening into tonight as a clipper low moves across CT/RI and southeast MA today. Vsby will lower to 1 mile or less in snow. Seas 3-4 ft.

Tonight . Gusty SW winds 25-35 kts decreasing through the night. Seas 8-10 ft on southern waters.

Saturday . Clear skies and light winds. Seas 3-5 ft.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas less than 4 feet.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas building to 5 to 10 feet. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain showers likely.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain showers likely.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ232>235- 237. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for ANZ254. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/BW NEAR TERM . Frank/Chai SHORT TERM . BW LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/BW/Chai MARINE . WTB/BW/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 11 mi68 min 45°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 19 mi78 min 16 G 21 39°F 43°F1 ft27°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 23 mi83 min S 2.9 40°F 1017 hPa28°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 31 mi74 min 39°F 42°F1017.3 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 32 mi78 min WSW 16 G 19 36°F 3 ft1016.7 hPa (-1.9)22°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 32 mi68 min WSW 8 G 14 41°F 41°F1017.5 hPa (-3.0)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi78 min SW 14 G 18 35°F 48°F2 ft1016.2 hPa (-2.1)23°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA8 mi72 minSW 910.00 miOvercast39°F24°F55%1016.7 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA10 mi16 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast40°F27°F60%1017.2 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi12 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast37°F25°F62%1016.7 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA20 mi23 minWSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F24°F56%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYA

Wind History from HYA (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W5NW3W3CalmCalmW3W3W3W3W6W6W7
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Tide / Current Tables for South Yarmouth, Bass River, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts (2)
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South Yarmouth
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:58 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:03 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM EST     2.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:32 PM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:46 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.40.50.81.21.82.32.62.52.31.91.40.90.50.50.71.11.62.12.42.52.32

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:57 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:53 AM EST     1.91 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:53 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:44 AM EST     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:24 PM EST     1.79 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:09 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:03 PM EST     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.81.91.60.9-0.1-1-1.5-1.6-1.3-0.70.10.91.51.81.71.20.3-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.1

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.