Friday, February28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Austinburg, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 6:12PM Friday February 28, 2020 4:02 AM EST (09:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:34AMMoonset 11:05PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Expires:202002280915;;202850 Fzus51 Kcle 280244 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 944 Pm Est Thu Feb 27 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez146>149-280915- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 944 Pm Est Thu Feb 27 2020
.gale warning in effect until 7 am est Friday...
Rest of tonight..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. Snow showers, then a chance of snow showers late. Waves 10 to 13 feet subsiding to 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Friday..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday night..West winds to 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees, off cleveland 35 degrees, and off erie 34 degrees.
LEZ148


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Austinburg, OH
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location: 41.76, -80.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 280555 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1255 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of surface troughs will rotate southeast across the region through Friday night. A ridge of high pressure will build east across the area Saturday night into Sunday. A warm front will move northeast across the area Sunday night and stall near the southern shore of Lake Erie. Low pressure will track northeast along the stationary front Monday night into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Lake effect snow is showing signs of weakening across the snowbelt tonight as drier air arrives. This is evident from surface observations in Eastern Michigan with dew points in the single digits and clear skies found in Northwest OH. There will be a brief lull in the lake effect snow tonight before a resurgence near or just east of Cleveland, possibly right on time to coincide with the morning commute Friday. BUFKIT soundings indicate a west to east snow band to set up in the vicinity of Cleveland and eastward Friday morning as surface convergence and increased low level moisture from another weak shortwave trough arrive. This snow band could be heavy at times and linger for several hours through the late morning and possibly even through the early afternoon. have increased snow totals in this time period by about an inch or two. Higher accumulations will be found in the higher terrain areas of Geauga County. Winter headlines have been kept the same.

Previous Discussion . Have expanded the snow accumulations across the southern CWA for the afternoon as a few lake effect bands break away from Lake Michigan. Doesnt look like more than an inch or two for a few locations across the south. Elsewhere downwind of Lake Erie the snow showers will continue but amounts through the afternoon do not appear they will be more than 1 to 3 inches unless you get under a persistent band. These areas could see up to 6 inches.

We are now attempting to dig into the mesoscale features that will develop with the lake effect snow this evening through the overnight. Models are hinting that there could be an enhanced band of snow that develops during the rush hour this evening. It should be mainly over the primary snowbelt area and could clip a portion of the Cleveland metro area. The greater concern for the Cleveland metro will be late tonight into Friday morning. An east to west band could be located from Cuyahoga county eastward into Geauga and Ashtabula counties. Also inland northwest PA will see some higher amounts. Not going to modify any of the headlines at this time but we will need to start thinking about advisories for the secondary snowbelt. If we end up doing this it would be for Friday morning across northern Trumbull county. More details on this over the next couple shifts.

It will remain cold through Friday night. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens to lower 20s. Wind chill should range from the teens down to the single digits.

The upper level trough will be east of the region early Friday evening with a more northwest fetch in its wake for a few hours. This will definitely enhance the lake effect snow into the secondary snowbelt and could impact Lorain and Medina counties. More details on this on Friday. The lake effect snow should then gradually shift northward back into the primary snowbelt with additional significant accumulations in the persistent bands. So dont let the lull Friday afternoon fool you into thinking the event is over. Lows in the teens at most locations away from the lakeshore.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure at the surface and aloft builds from the west on Saturday, providing fair weather for most of our CWA, as afternoon highs reach the 20's to lower 30's. Lake effect snow bands linger across the snowbelt as a northwesterly low-level flow of cold air backs toward westerly across Lake Erie. These lake snows should end by around midnight Saturday night as a lowering subsidence inversion and dry air advection cause lake-induced CAPE to subside. Additional snow accumulations should be no more than 1 to 3 inches. Fair weather is expected region-wide on Sunday as high pressure at the surface and aloft begins to exit to the east, allowing southerly low- level flow and warm air advection to affect our region. Morning lows in the upper teens to mid 20's should be followed by afternoon highs in the 40's to near 50 degrees on Sunday. Sunday night, a subtle shortwave trough and accompanying surface cold front approach from the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes. Isentropic lift aloft taps into Gulf of Mexico moisture and allows primarily rain to overspread our area from the south and southwest. Rain may mix with wet snow, especially across interior northwest PA. Low temperatures should range from the 30's to lower 40's.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. On Monday and Monday night, the aforementioned cold front should stall in vicinity of the western-third of our CWA as a surface low moves along the front from the southern Great Plains toward northern OH. Simultaneously, multiple shortwave disturbances cross our area from west to east as isentropic lift aloft persists and continues to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture. This pattern will allow periods of primarily rain to persist. Monday's highs should reach the mid 40's to lower 50's, while Monday night lows should reach the upper 30's to mid 40's.

Periods of rain and/or snow are expected Tuesday through Wednesday night as the aforementioned front moves slowly toward the south and east of our area. Simultaneously, multiple waves of surface low pressure should move generally northeastward along the front. Aloft, multiple shortwave troughs should advance eastward over our area, with an especially potent shortwave trough crossing our area Wednesday night. Highs in the 40's or 50's are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday night low temperatures should reach the upper 30's to lower 40's, while Wednesday night lows should dip into the lower to mid 30's. Precipitation potential should decrease for most of the CWA on Thursday as high pressure at the surface and aloft builds behind the potent shortwave trough exiting to the east. However, a northwesterly low-level flow across Lake Erie may be cold enough to generate lake effect snow and/or rain showers across the snowbelt. Thursday afternoon highs should reach the upper 30's to lower 40's.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. Generally MVFR/VFR ceilings expected for most of the sites through 12Z, with mainly clear skies for KTOL and KFDY during this period. A trough will swing through the area during the day, bringing more solid MVFR ceilings, gusty west winds, and some lake effect -SHSN at KERI/KYNG and possibly KCLE. Winds veer a bit more northwest late in the period, with another period of lake effect -SHSN possible.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR mainly in northeast OH and northwest PA, due to lake effect snow through Saturday. Non-VFR returns Sunday night into Monday with rain showers.

MARINE. West of Avon Point, a Gale Warning remains in effect until midnight tonight, while east of Avon Point, the Gale Warning is in effect until 7 AM EST Friday. Also, the Low Water Advisory remains in effect until midnight tonight for the western basin of Lake Erie.

Westerly gales to 35 to 40 knots, gusting up to 50 knots, begin to ease overnight tonight as low pressure drifts northeastward from southwestern Quebec and begins to weaken. Waves as large as 7 to 14 feet are expected through tonight, especially east of The Islands. Gales should cease over the whole lake by daybreak Friday. Westerly winds around 25 knots on Friday are expected to ease to around 15 knots by Saturday as the aforementioned low drifts northeastward toward the mouth of the Saint Lawrence River and high pressure begins building over Lake Erie from the west Saturday afternoon. Simultaneously, waves up to 10 feet on Friday are expected to subside to 8 feet or less by early Saturday and 4 feet or less by late Saturday. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Friday into Saturday, especially east of The Islands. Of note, freezing spray is possible through Saturday morning.

Westerly winds should back toward southwesterly or southerly on Sunday and persist through Monday as high pressure crosses the lake and a cold front approaches from the west. Southwesterly winds attempt to veer to westerly on Tuesday, when the cold front may begin sweeping across the lake. Relatively-quiet marine conditions are expected through this period with sustained winds no stronger than about 10 to 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for OHZ011>014-089. PA . Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for PAZ001>003. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ146>149- 166>169. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142>145.

SYNOPSIS . MM NEAR TERM . Kahn/MM SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka/TK AVIATION . Greenawalt MARINE . Jaszka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 9 mi92 min W 27 G 33 49°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 22 mi44 min 24°F 35°F1012 hPa16°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 44 mi50 min WSW 16 G 22 21°F 37°F1012.9 hPa14°F
EREP1 49 mi44 min W 22 G 29

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH9 mi69 minWNW 13 G 2310.00 miOvercast21°F9°F59%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZY

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE54CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmSW3W3SW5SW3CalmNE4NW6NW4NW4NW8NW9NW9
G16
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2 days agoCalmN3NE4Calm4N6NE7NE7N8NE8N8N7NE8
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NE7
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NE6NE5NE53N5NE5NE5NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.