Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 12:47 AM   Moonset 9:19 AM

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LEZ162 Detroit River Lt. To Maumee Bay Oh To Reno Beach Oh Beyond 5nm Offshoreline To Us-canadian Border- Reno Beach To The Islands Oh Beyond 5nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- The Islands To Vermilion Oh Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- 930 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Overnight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 290554 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 154 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stationary boundary to the north of the region will give way to a cold front that will push through the area Monday into Monday night. High pressure Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by a weak cold front later on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
920 PM...Quiet weather is expected through the rest of this evening with mild low temperatures in the low to mid-60s.

Previous Discussion...Some showers firing along a weak area of surface convergence in the eastern third of the CWA at this hour due to a surface trough, and should be pushing out over the next few hours. This leaves the forecast area largely dry going through tonight and into Monday in the warm sector with the low pressure center and cold front well to the west, although the stationary front to the north may drift southward clipping the NW PA counties with a few more isolated showers this evening and tonight. This frontal system pushes eastward late Monday into Monday night with the next round of showers and storms for the forecast area. Some instability out ahead of the expected convection with the cold front, but it is slightly out of phase with the layer moisture. Only going to get a short window for showers and storms with a fairly progressive line, and behind the cold front, expect the mid and upper levels to dry out significantly. In the meantime, another fairly warm day near the 80F mark for the bulk of the CWA in temperatures in the range of 15 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Showers are expected for the first half as a cold front associated with a low pressure over the Western Great Lakes region moves east across the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the boundary, which will further be supported by the area being positioned in the right entrance region of an upper level jet.
Showers will taper from west to east throughout the day Tuesday. As an upper level ridge and associated surface high nudge into the area behind the departing front, conditions will dry out for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The high pressure will gradually move east, allowing for WAA and increased moisture transport to return across the area. This may result in a few showers late Wednesday night, but with models generally slowing the progression of the system, opted to keep it dry for now with the precipitation chances occurring in the long term period. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 70s, but will climb on Wednesday into the upper 70s to low 80s with that WAA regime becoming established. Both nights will be mild with temperatures dropping into the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Chances of precipitation increase for later this week as an unsettled pattern returns across the US. The key feature driving much of the weather in this period will be an upper level trough developing over the western US and gradually shifting east into the western Great Lakes region before pivoting north. A low pressure system will develop at the surface, extending a boundary just north of the CWA on Thursday. This will allow for continued WAA and moisture advection. Some long range models have marginal diurnal instability developing on Thursday which may result in a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across western counties Thursday and Thursday night. By Friday, the aforementioned trough begins to pivot, likely putting the area under the right entrance region of the upper level jet. This will allow for strong upper level support and showers becoming widespread beginning Friday. These showers will gradually taper from west to east late Friday night into early Saturday as the cold front moves east across the area. After these diminish, the chances of showers and thunderstorms for much of Saturday and Sunday goes down as a ridge builds in again. Temperatures through the period will start hot with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s, but gradually cool to highs in the upper 60s to low 70s by Sunday. Lows will generally linger in the 50s expect for Thursday night when temperatures will only fall into the low 60s.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
Conditions across the area will start VFR and likely remain VFR for much of the TAF period. High pressure building in from the southeast will allow for the airspace to be dry today with some mid-level clouds moving into the region. The pressure gradient across the region will be light enough to allow for some form a of a lake breeze to form. This will get through KERI and it will be close for KCLE. The gradient could be just strong enough to keep it north of KCLE. A cold front will enter tonight and allow for showers and some thunderstorms to enter the region.
Coverage of convection will be generally scattered but high enough to merit a prevailing group in the forecast.
Precipitation will be light to moderate and likely not result in a fall below VFR levels. Showers and storms will be present in the airspace through the end of the period. South winds will shift slightly to the southwest and gusts to 25 kt are possible this afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday.
Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

MARINE
Southwest flow of 10-15 knots will continue through this evening before high pressure again becomes established over the area tonight and allow for winds to weaken to 5-10 knots. These southwest winds will again increase to 10-15 knots on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front that will move east across the lake Monday night into Tuesday. Before the passage of this boundary, there remains a chance for a weak lake breeze to develop along the western lakeshore.
Behind the cold front, winds will gain more of a westerly component, but remain at 5-10 knots through Tuesday night. High pressure returns on Wednesday with a warm front moving north across the lake on Thursday. This will result in another period of southwesterly flow of 5-10 knots is expected through Thursday before strengthening on Friday to 10-15 knots. Another cold front moves east Friday night into Saturday. No marine headlines are anticipated at this time.

CLIMATE
Forecast high temperatures on Monday may be within a few degrees of the daily record maximums for some climate locations. Here are the historical record high temperatures for Monday, April 29th.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 04-29 87(1899) 81(1942) 84(1899) 84(1888) 85(1942) 82(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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