Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Point, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday August 15, 2020 3:16 AM EDT (07:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:40AMMoonset 5:21PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 942 Pm Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ162 Expires:202008150815;;465901 FZUS61 KCLE 150142 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 942 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... High pressure 30.10 inches lingers over Lake Erie through Saturday night and will gradually exit to the east. On Sunday, a cold front sweeps east across Lake Erie, and a second cold front should sweep southeast across the lake on Monday. Behind the front, a ridge averaging 30.10 inches builds from the Upper Midwest by Tuesday and Wednesday. LEZ162-163-150815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Point, MI
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location: 41.8, -83.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 150553 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 153 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. Surface low pressure will move northeast across the Ohio Valley tonight through tomorrow. An upper trough and associated surface cold front will move southeast across the area Sunday. Behind the front, high pressure will persist across much of the area through mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues over Northwest Ohio with the main area of precipitation lingering from Hancock to Marion Counties. A limited flood threat remains for these counties as one to two inches of rain has fallen, but dry soil conditions will allow for plenty of absorption of this rain and any flooding will be minor. Convective activity will continue to wane over the next several hours as the atmosphere stabilizes and precipitation eventually completely dissipates. Low temperatures remain on track to the mid to upper 60s, although NW Ohio may continue to dip lower in the 60s with the rain-cooled atmosphere.

The forecast for Saturday has changed a bit for the forecast area. The region will be between a weak low over the Ohio Valley and a surface trough over southern lower Michigan and northern Indiana. A shortwave trough will enter the area on Saturday morning and move the Ohio Valley low northeast, bringing a marginal chance for some rain during the day. The best chances with this complex will be over southeastern areas like Canton and Youngstown, but recent trends are that most of the precipitation will miss the area to the southeast. To the west, a lingering surface trough will remain and be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity that may spill into NW Ohio and have some lower chance PoPs for the I-75 corridor. As for the region in between, tough to say if there will be any precipitation for Saturday as the overall forcing and upper level support appears minimal. Will keep a slight chance for now as a spurious shower may attempt to enter but trends seem drier for now. Temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s seem appropriate for highs on Saturday. The Ohio Valley low will depart and shortwave aloft will depart to the east on Saturday night and the surface trough will fizzle out in the west as a cold front approaches and much of the area will be dry on Saturday night and temperatures will fall to the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. On Sunday, a shortwave trough and associated surface cold front sweep eastward across our CWA. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the front. A few stronger storms with strong wind gusts and small hail are possible amidst weak to moderate instability and moderate vertical wind shear. Unfavorably-high wet-bulb zero levels should prevent the occurrence of severe hail, while fairly abundant cloud cover, limited diurnal mixing of the boundary layer, and limited DCAPE should curb the potential of damaging gusts. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 70's to lower 80's.

Cyclonic westerly to northwesterly flow aloft and additional shortwave disturbances affect our CWA Sunday night through Monday night as an eastward-moving longwave trough becomes established over eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and northeast U.S. Lingering showers and thunderstorms with the first front should exit our CWA to the east Sunday evening. Overnight Sunday night, the air mass may become cold enough over Lake Erie for a few lake effect showers and thunderstorms to form and subsequently move east-southeastward over northeast OH and northwest PA. Low temperatures should reach the upper 50's to mid 60's. On Monday, a secondary surface cold front should sweep southeastward through our CWA and be accompanied by isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs should reach the mid 70's to lower 80's once again. Fair weather is expected Monday night as a weak surface high pressure ridge builds from the Upper Midwest. Lows should reach the mid 50's to mid 60's.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. At this point, odds favor fair weather Tuesday through Friday morning as the aforementioned longwave trough advances very slowly toward New England and far-eastern Canada. Simultaneously, high pressure at the surface and aloft should build over our area. High temperatures should moderate from the 70's on Tuesday to the upper 70's to mid 80's on Thursday. Overnight lows in the 50's or 60's are expected Tuesday night through Thursday night. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon since high pressure may begin exiting our CWA as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest. High temperatures should mainly reach the low to mid 80's.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/. Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated through the period as low pressure moves northeast through the Ohio valley. Some MVFR BR cannot be ruled out at KTOL/KFDY near daybreak. The potential for SHRA/TSRA increases this afternoon, mainly from KMFD west, but confidence in coverage too low for more than a PROB30 mention. A few SHRA may sneak into KCAK as well with the low moving just southeast of the area. Light winds through early morning will increase out of the southeast during the day.

Outlook . Non-VFR with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

MARINE. Northeastly winds of about 10 to 20 knots, gusting up to 25 knots, persist over Lake Erie into this evening. Waves as large as 3 to 5 feet are expected, especially between The Islands and Ripley. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 2 AM EDT Saturday from Reno Beach to Ripley. After midnight tonight, 2 to 4 foot waves should subside to 1 to 3 feet as easterly winds ease to 10 to 15 knots.

Easterly winds of about 5 to 15 knots on Saturday veer to southerly Saturday night as high pressure exits to the east and a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front sweeps east across Lake Erie on Sunday, causing 5 to 15 knot winds to shift from southerly to westerly. Winds trend westerly Sunday night before shifting to northwesterly on Monday with the northwest-to-southeast passage of a second cold front. Simultaneously, wind speeds remain in the 5 to 15 knot range. Northwesterly to northeasterly winds of about 5 to 10 knots are expected Monday night and Tuesday as weak high pressure builds from the west. Winds should be light and variable Tuesday night through Wednesday as high pressure continues to build. Waves should be no larger than 1 to 3 feet.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Kahn NEAR TERM . Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka AVIATION . Greenawalt MARINE . Jaszka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 6 mi77 min ENE 18 G 23 78°F
45165 12 mi17 min ENE 14 G 18 78°F 78°F3 ft66°F
TWCO1 12 mi17 min E 19 G 22 78°F 78°F68°F
CMPO1 18 mi107 min ESE 12 G 14 78°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 22 mi47 min E 12 G 15 1013.4 hPa
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 26 mi47 min E 11 G 14 76°F1012.9 hPa
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 37 mi27 min E 18 G 21 77°F 5 ft1013 hPa66°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 40 mi17 min WSW 2.9 G 2.9 72°F 1012.5 hPa (-1.0)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi92 min Calm 69°F 1014 hPa66°F
45147 - Lake St Clair 48 mi17 min E 12 G 16 75°F2 ft1013.2 hPa (-1.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi17 min E 5.1 G 7 74°F 1015.6 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI21 mi22 minNNE 410.00 miFair72°F60°F68%1014.2 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI21 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair66°F64°F93%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE7NE9NE9NE10NE10NE7NE6E4NE8E9E4E9E8E8E5E5E5CalmCalmE7NE5NE4NE4
1 day agoN3CalmNW4CalmCalmNE4NE4NE5NE6NE9NE10
G14
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NE6E6NE5NE3NE4NE6NE6NE6NE7N6
2 days agoCalmCalmN3N4N4CalmCalmCalmSE3S5S6S7S7S7S7S6S5SE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.