Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sagamore, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 6:23PM Thursday October 1, 2020 10:57 AM EDT (14:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:44PMMoonset 6:09AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 1016 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night through Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Dry weather and modest sw winds affect the coastal waters of massachusetts and rhode island today. Weak low pres tracks across the coastal waters Fri from sw to ne. Weak high pres then builds into new england this weekend. A coastal low will impact the waters Mon, however the exact track and intensity of this low is still uncertain at this time. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sagamore, MA
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location: 41.83, -70.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 011410 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1010 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather today along with warmer than normal temperatures. Scattered showers are likely Friday, with showers most numerous northwest of Boston and Providence. Dry weather returns for this weekend. along with near normal temperatures. Coastal low pressure may bring widespread appreciable rainfall Sunday night and Monday. Dry weather likely returns Tuesday behind departing low. However, an active weather pattern may yield a chance of showers midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 1010 AM Update .

No major changes to the ongoing forecast this morning. Brought temperatures and winds back in line with observed trends. Still expecting abundant sunshine, with a few mid level clouds at times, particularly across NW MA. Gusty winds up to 25 mph develop towards the Cape and islands this afternoon, with lower gusts farther inland.

Previous discussion .

A positively tilted H5 trough runs from the Great Lakes into Missouri. This means that S New England remains in a predominant SW flow despite being in a post cold frontal air mass with the bulk of the cold air staying well west of us. In fact, near-term guidance indicates the milder and muggier air try to come back north so the Cape and South Coast could see dew points rise into the upper 50s to near 60. Further inland across interior MA, mixing up to 850mb should see afternoon dew points fall into the 40s. With 850mb temps around +7 to +9C, expect highs to be mainly in the low to mid 70s, which is about 5 degrees above climatological normal. Downslope flow could potentially lead to highs overperforming in Eastern MA and RI so used the MOS guidance to derive afternoon highs. Expect a steady SW winds with gusts up to 20 mph at times. Nonetheless, with plenty of sunshine and dew points in the 40s and 50s, it will be a very comfortable day for outdoor activities.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. 420 AM Update .

Overnight Thursday into Friday .

The aforementioned H5 trough axis slowly approaches the Mid Atlantic states as it takes on a more neutral tilt. While the embedded vort max moves over Upstate NY into interior New England, a piece of energy associated with the trough will be sufficient to trigger a few autumn showers especially across interior MA beginning during the pre-dawn hours on Friday for the Western MA and reaching Eastern MA and RI by early to mid morning. The showers will bring about a reinforcing shot of cold air, with 850mb temperatures of +3C and 925 mb temperatures of +7C in the middle of the day! Locations in Western MA could remain in the mid 50s for much of Friday, while Eastern MA and RI could rise into the upper 60s or even low 70s before turning sharply cooler depending on the amount of sunshine and speed of the cold front.

There are some indications of an area of low pressure moving up the Atlantic seaboard that may help reinforce some of the showers for Eastern MA and RI but the main impact looks to be breezy conditions with gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible for locations near and along the coast. With winds turning to the south before the cold front passage, that could help boost highs along the MA/RI south coast to near 70.

Overall, rainfall amounts should be light with totals generally a quarter of an inch or less with the highest totals anticipated over western and central portions of the CWA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 420 AM Update .

Highlights

* Seasonably cool weather this period

* Dry weather this weekend followed by rain likely Sun ngt/Mon with dry weather likely returning Tue, followed by a chance of showers mid week

Precipitation .

Dry weather returns Fri night behind departing short wave and associated weak coastal low. Weak short wave moves across the area Sat but column is too dry to yield any showers. Thus expecting dry weather Sat with just some extra diurnal clouds from the short wave. Short wave ridging develops over the area Sunday in response to upstream trough amplification across the Great Lakes. Therefore dry weather continues into Sunday but upstream trough sets the stage for rain chances Sun night into Monday. Euro continues to be the most amplified solution with closed low continuing to deepen as it tracks near or along the southern New England coast. Although the new 00z EC has backed off its previous deep solution. EC ensemble members are not as amplified as the 12z and previous operational runs including the 00z GFS/GEFS which are less amplified. However all model guidance including the UKMET/CMC and GFS are beginning to trend toward higher amplitude. This seems reasonable given the overall amplified long wave pattern with large western CONUS ridge and western Atlc ridge, supporting a high amplitude trough over the Great Lakes. However given the large model spread will continue to derive pops from a model blend. Dry weather should follow Tue behind departing system, however upper air pattern remains progressive but also somewhat amplified. Thus another chance of showers sometime midweek.

Temperatures .

Seasonable airmass overspreads the region this weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, low 60s high terrain, with morning lows in the 40s and even a few mid to upper 30s Sunday morning. Temps Monday still a bit uncertain given different model solutions ranging from a soaking wind swept rain from a closed coastal low, to a more progressive/open wave-coastal low. Given uncertainty we will derive temps from a model blend here. Then seasonable temps Tue behind departing coastal low. WAA ahead of next short wave Wed should yield temps at or above normal.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today: High confidence.

VFR conditions. SW winds at 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt possible towards the Cape and islands.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR with winds generally below 5 kt. There is a low risk for a late night rain shower west of the CT River.

Friday: High confidence.

Mainly VFR with periods of MVFR possible during showers. NW winds of 5 to 10 kt for western MA terminals and S winds of 10 kt with gusts 15 to 20 kt possible for southeast MA and Cape terminals.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday through Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

MARINE. * Small Craft Advisories for outer waters today for rough seas.

Small Craft Advisories continue today for the outer waters thanks to remaining rough seas of up to 7 ft. Winds should remain below Small Craft criteria with a rather tranquil stretch of weather. There is a risk of showers on Friday with a cold front passage.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ237- 250-254. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ235-255. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ256.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Nocera/Chai NEAR TERM . Nocera/Chai SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . Nocera AVIATION . Belk/Nocera/Chai MARINE . Belk/Nocera/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 12 mi30 min 62°F1 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 17 mi72 min SSE 1.9 69°F 1013 hPa61°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 22 mi57 min 67°F 66°F1013.2 hPa (+0.4)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 27 mi37 min S 18 G 19 66°F
CHTM3 33 mi57 min S 9.9 G 16 68°F 65°F1013.2 hPa (+0.5)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 34 mi57 min 70°F 68°F1013.1 hPa (+0.3)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 34 mi57 min SW 13 G 15 68°F 1012.6 hPa (+0.3)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 34 mi67 min S 12 G 14 64°F 3 ft1012.1 hPa (+0.0)55°F
FRXM3 35 mi57 min 69°F 58°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 36 mi67 min SSW 9.7 G 9.7 63°F 62°F2 ft1010.2 hPa (+0.0)59°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi57 min S 15 G 17 1013.9 hPa (+0.5)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 43 mi57 min SSE 11 G 13 67°F 67°F1011.9 hPa (+0.3)
PRUR1 43 mi57 min 68°F 60°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 44 mi72 min WSW 6 70°F 1012 hPa58°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 44 mi57 min WSW 4.1 G 7 70°F 1013.1 hPa (+0.4)
PVDR1 44 mi57 min SW 8 G 12 69°F 1012.4 hPa (-0.0)56°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi57 min 70°F 62°F1010.4 hPa (+0.0)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi57 min SSW 8 G 16 67°F 66°F1013.8 hPa (+0.4)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 45 mi57 min SW 9.9 G 14 69°F 66°F1012.3 hPa (-0.0)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 47 mi57 min SSW 14 G 17 67°F 66°F1012.6 hPa (+0.4)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 48 mi113 min SW 12 G 14 61°F 3 ft1009.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 48 mi57 min SSW 9.9 G 13 69°F 67°F1012.3 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA11 mi65 minSW 1110.00 miFair70°F55°F59%1012.2 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi72 minSW 1010.00 miFair70°F59°F69%1012.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi61 minS 910.00 miFair69°F60°F73%1012.7 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA20 mi82 minVar 6 G 1210.00 miFair70°F57°F64%1011.5 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi61 minS 1210.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1012.4 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA24 mi64 minSSW 1310.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPYM

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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SW11SW10SW6SW8SW6S5SW6S4SW6SW7SW9S7SW5SW3S3S4SW7SW11
1 day agoSW9SW84SW12S9SW10S5S6S45S5S8S7S54
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2 days agoSW9S5S4S5S6
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S7S5S5S7S54SW4SW64S4SW6SW5S3CalmSW3W3SW5SW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Sagamore, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:38 AM EDT     8.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 05:47 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:55 PM EDT     8.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.17.15.63.61.60.50.41.32.84.86.77.987.364.22.20.70.41.12.54.46.47.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:35 AM EDT     -4.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EDT     4.33 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:14 AM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:58 PM EDT     -4.37 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:08 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:17 PM EDT     4.20 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:24 PM EDT     -0.13 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-4.4-4.5-4-2.81.23.24.14.34.23.41.6-2.9-4-4.4-4.1-3.2-1.12.83.84.24.13.52-2.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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