Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Lakeville, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:52PM Monday January 25, 2021 2:54 PM EST (19:54 UTC) Moonrise 2:47PMMoonset 5:36AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 212 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..N winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Snow likely.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain and snow.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of snow and rain showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu through Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 212 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Easing winds expected today as high pres builds over the waters. Weak low pres passes into the southern waters on Tue, with high pres returning for Wed. Powerful low pres develops near the mid-atlc waters Thu. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Lakeville, MA
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location: 41.84, -70.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 251456 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 956 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Winds slacken today into tonight as high pressure builds across southern New England. A warm front produces minor snow accumulation Tuesday night into Wednesday. Unsettled for midweek with considerable cloudiness and periods of ocean effect precipitation as a powerful low pressure near the mid-Atlantic waters passes well to our south. Period of much below normal temperatures and low wind chills for late in the week, only gradually modifying into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

10 AM Update .

Have updated things to bring it in line with the latest observations, so no changes in the latest update. Just nudged down temperatures slightly as we were a bit too warm to start off.

Previous discussion from 6 AM .

Chilly start to Monday with current temps as of this writing in the teens for most of the interior and coastal plain, to the lower 20s near the eastern MA coast. Though winds aren't quite as strong as yesterday, winds around 10-15 mph still making it feel like the single digits to the teens. Full sun expected with clear skies, though some high clouds approach late in the day. After the chilly start to the day, should see highs reach back into the upper 20s to the mid- upper 30s.

Discussion from 4 AM .

High pressure moves into southern New England today, relaxing the pressure gradient. Though it will still be gusty from mid morning into this afternoon, it will not be as strong as yesterday. With just some patches of mid and high clouds at times, and weaker cold air advection, expecting high temperatures to be right around normal for late January.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/.

High pressure will continue to move into our region tonight, before moving over the ocean by Tuesday evening. Dry weather with rather light winds prevail through tonight.

25/00Z guidance may be a bit too quick bringing precipitation back to southern New England Tuesday given the synoptic pattern. With the high pressure to the east, low levels will start out rather dry. it will take some time to saturate enough for precipitation to reach the ground. Stayed on the slower side of the guidance for this forecast, but still brought at least a chance for some light snow Tuesday afternoon across the western half of southern New England. Light snow might not reach the coast until late in the day.

Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal during this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Highlights .

* Light-accumulating snow Tues night into Wed. Possible need for winter weather advisories for the interior/Berkshires.

* Periods of ocean-effect precip and increasing north winds for coastal MA and the waters Wed into Thurs, as a powerful cyclone near the mid- Atlantic passes well southeast.

* Much colder air, some of the coldest air yet experienced in the winter season for late in the week. Sub-zero wind chills interior Thurs night, then across most of SNE Fri night.

* Moderating but still below normal temps for the weekend.

* Possible coastal storminess late Sunday or early next week? Details still uncertain.

Details:

Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night:

Looking at a couple periods of snow in this period, most notable on Tues night into early Wed; with lighter snow for later Wed into early Wed night.

In terms of trends for Tues night-early Wed, the shortwave disturbance responsible is a bit more robust at the start and also did note in uptick in QPF across most models. Still suspect the 00z GFS is a wet outlier given its tendency to overdo QPF in weak to moderately-forced warm thermal advective regimes. Despite the increase in model QPF, some of it will also be lost to saturating the column; even that looks incomplete and could support a period of FZDZ for a time. Best omega also resides below the snow growth region, suggesting that the potential for snow of even moderate- intensity might be tough to come by. The impression I get is a light- accumulating snow event. However with 850-700 mb frontogenetic forcing moving in during the latter half of the PM commute, some minor travel impact potentially Advisory-worthy now looks possible across western/central MA into northern CT where snow amounts are in the 2-5" range (highest totals in the Berkshires). Will hold on any headlines for now but may need to be considered later. Further east, amounts up to a couple inches for eastern MA/RI, and a coating for Cape Cod/Islands.

As the secondary low pulls away early on Wed, models show a signal for a trailing inverted trough which could focus another round of light snow mainly for central/eastern MA into RI and less so across the CT Valley. Snow may mix with rain across parts of southeast MA and Cape Cod.

Lows mainly in the 20s Tues and Wed nights, and highs Wed in the 30s.

Thursday:

High pressure with northerly flow remains established over Southern New England on Thurs. A potent shortwave trough moving through the central Appalachians/mid-Atlantic region on Thurs will lead to a powerful, sub-980 mb coastal low passing well south of our area (south of 40N/70W). There remains good clustering in EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble member lows in this progged track, so thinking this should be a miss for our area. Its main effect would be to increase northerly winds on our southern waters potentially to Gale levels. NNE flow with some moisture will likely lead to considerable cloudiness with potential ocean effect precip/snow for Cape Cod into South Shore. Highs mid to upper 30s.

Thursday Night into Friday Night:

A short-lived, but significant pattern change toward well below normal temperatures and low wind chills looks to be in the offing in this period. This occurs as a piece of the polar vortex centered over Hudson Bay digs southeast later Thurs night into Fri.

Models continue to advertise some of the coldest air yet experienced to this point in the winter season intruding into Southern New England Thurs night into Fri. 925 mb temps fall to around -15 to -20C, not really expected to modify until early in the weekend. The colder air will be accompanied by NW winds around 15-20 mph/gusts to 30 mph helping to produce low wind chills. Low temperatures Thurs night in the single digits to mid teens. It looks like the coldest air comes in Fri into Fri night with highs only in the teens to low 20s and lows in the single digits to low teens. Lowest wind chills Thurs night/early Fri between 5 above and 5 below zero, and around -10F across the Berkshires. By Fri night, wind chills project even lower given the colder air. Outside of Cape Cod, most areas should see sub- zero wind chills with values in parts of the interior potentially approaching Advisory levels. The air mass is so dry that opted for a dry forecast despite the potent upper low digging southward.

The Weekend:

The very cold air mass gradually modifies into the weekend, with high pressure remaining in control. This should support mainly dry weather into Sunday, though temperatures will still trend below- average for late January.

Later Sunday into Mon, there are indications of coastal storminess reflected in deterministic and ensemble guidance passing near or over SNE. Typical large spread in ensemble member lows at this range as well as varied timing limits predictability, but this late- weekend/early-next week period is one that bears watching for possible wintry weather.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today and Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. Gusty NW winds continue through today.

Tuesday: High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in precipitation timing.

VFR most of the day with mid and high clouds increasing through the day. Risk for light snow with MVFR/IFR conditions develops from W to E during the afternoon.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SN likely.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN, chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE.

NW winds will continue to diminish today into tonight as a high pressure overspreads the waters. Threat of freezing spray across the eastern coastal waters diminishes this morning. Rough seas will continue to subside as well.

Small Craft Advisories continue into tonight for the eastern outer coastal waters. Closer to shore, canceled the advisories for most of the south coastal waters based on latest observations and expectations. Extended the Small Craft Advisories for Boston Harbor and Nantucket Sound as latest observations indicated it will take a little longer for conditions to improve.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow, chance of rain.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ255.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/BL/Loconto NEAR TERM . Belk/BL/Loconto SHORT TERM . Belk LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Belk/Loconto MARINE . Belk/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi55 min 35°F 41°F1016.3 hPa (-1.7)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi55 min WNW 9.9 G 13 37°F 1016.1 hPa (-1.7)
FRXM3 17 mi55 min 36°F 9°F
PVDR1 24 mi55 min NW 6 G 9.9 39°F 1016.3 hPa (-1.7)-0°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 24 mi55 min WNW 13 G 16 38°F 38°F1015.5 hPa (-2.0)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 25 mi55 min NNW 7 G 15 37°F 39°F1016.2 hPa (-1.6)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 26 mi55 min N 1.9 G 6 38°F 1016.6 hPa (-2.0)
PRUR1 26 mi103 min 36°F 1°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 26 mi70 min N 5.1 38°F 1016 hPa2°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 26 mi55 min 37°F 38°F1015.6 hPa (-1.4)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 28 mi70 min WNW 6 44°F 1015 hPa19°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi55 min NW 15 G 16 1016.8 hPa (-1.5)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi55 min N 8 G 11 35°F 38°F1016.1 hPa (-1.5)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi55 min NNW 9.9 G 15 37°F 39°F1016 hPa (-2.0)
44090 32 mi59 min 40°F3 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 36 mi55 min 34°F 38°F1014.6 hPa (-1.4)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi35 min NW 16 G 19 34°F 42°F1016.4 hPa16°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi35 min W 1.9 G 3.9 38°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi35 min NW 14 G 18 33°F 1014.5 hPa18°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA6 mi63 minNW 810.00 miFair38°F2°F22%1015.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi62 minW 810.00 miFair38°F4°F24%1015.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi63 minNW 1210.00 miFair36°F7°F30%1015.2 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA22 mi80 minNNW 9 G 1710.00 miFair37°F9°F30%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTAN

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:20 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:36 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:13 AM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:32 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:35 PM EST     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.611.62.32.72.72.31.81.20.70.40.30.30.511.62.22.321.610.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:37 AM EST     0.08 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:42 AM EST     3.51 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:34 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM EST     -4.02 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:07 PM EST     0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:20 PM EST     3.78 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:41 PM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:21 PM EST     -3.83 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-21.62.93.43.53.22.5-0.4-2.9-3.8-4-3.7-2.8-0.92.53.43.83.73.32.3-1.6-3.2-3.8-3.7

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.