Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Lakeville, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday July 16, 2020 9:22 AM EDT (13:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:55AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure building east of the waters on today. A warm front approaches on Friday and moves through Friday night. Drier weather through the weekend with high pressure, but will see a cold front move across the waters late Monday. This front will stall over the waters for Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Lakeville, MA
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location: 41.84, -70.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 161106 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 706 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry, cool and comfortable across southern New England today. Still cool and comfortable tonight, but could see some showers spreading in across western areas late. A warm front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms Friday, then hot and humid weather returns this weekend into early next week. The worst of the heat will be Sunday and Monday when heat advisories will probably be needed. A weak front may trigger more showers and storms Monday and again Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 7 AM update .

Widespread strato-cu across western MA/CT as low level moisture flows around surface high to the east. Cross sections indicate decreasing moisture and HREF shows these clouds will erode this morning, but leftover moisture will lead to more cu development late morning into the afternoon. Adjusted sky grids to reflect current obs and trends. Overall, partly sunny skies in the west and mostly sunny eastern New Eng. Rest of forecast on track.

Previous discussion .

A ridge axis will be directly over the region extending into northern New England and eastern Quebec. The ridge will build offshore into the Gulf of Maine by the afternoon. A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the central Great Lakes will lift into the western periphery of New England by the evening. At the surface, high pressure will build into the Gulf of Maine.

The high will continue to nudge into southern New England, which will keep the weather dry and quiet. As the position of the surface high shifts, winds will shift from an E/ESE direction to more of a southeasterly direction. With the high moving closer to the region expect more sunshine in comparison to Wednesday. Will feel very similar temperature wise to Wednesday, but maybe a degree or two warmer. The increasing cloud cover during the afternoon should inhibit temperatures from climbing too much. Highs generally in the 70s, but expect the warmest readings in the CT River Valley with temperatures in the lower 80s. Dew points in the mid to upper 50s, so should feel comfortable out.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Highlights

* Another cool night across southern New England. Increasing chances of precipitation from west to east after midnight.

* Chances of showers and thunderstorms across southern New England. Could have heavy downpours at times. A few stronger storms not out of the question across western portions of the CWA.

Tonight .

A shortwave will be on the western periphery of New England initially and will lift into northern New England and Quebec. A trough will slide from the Upper Mississippi River Valley into eastern Ontario and the eastern Great Lakes. A broad surface low will lift from the central Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley northeastward into southern Quebec. The warm front associated with this system will lift toward the region.

Cloud cover will continue to increase across southern New England due to the approaching front. This may bring some light showers to the region especially after midnight, but best chance for any measurable precip is across western MA and CT.

Flow becoming more southerly as the previously mentioned high builds into Nova Scotia. This will advect the 60 degree dew point back into the region late. Temperatures still expected to be comfortable across the region with lows in the low to mid 60s. Could be a bit breezy across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires and the CT River Valley as the pressure gradient tightens due to the departing high and incoming front.

Friday .

The trough over eastern Ontario/southern Quebec will lift into northern Maine by the evening. At the surface the warm front is slated to move through roughly the western half of New England, while the cold front associated with the low slides into central New York.

Uncertain at this point in time how widespread thunderstorm activity will be as there are questions on if the warm front can lift through. On top of this there may be too much cloud cover in place for us to get unstable. Environmental parameters are in pretty good agreement at this point in time. Bulk shear values within the 0-6 km layer are roughly 35-40 kts. MUCAPE values are pretty poor until late in the afternoon an into the evening. Values range from a few hundred J/kg across eastern and central locations to around 1000-1500 J/kg across western portions of the CWA. Low and mid level lapse rates look very poor, but do have ample moisture as southerly flow will advect 60 to low 70 degree dew points in. Think the best shot for any stronger storms is across far western locations later in the day given the current suite of forecast guidance.

Still do think that heavier downpours are possible with any showers/storms on Friday. Will have PWAT values of roughly 1.5 to 1.75 inches. On top of this the warm cloud layer depth is right in the 3-4 km range.

Expect it to be breezy across southern New England due to the tightened pressure gradient in place. Temperatures very similar to the readings on Wednesday and Thursday despite the warmer air advecting in, but this is being offset by the cloudiness.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Highlights .

* Increasing heat and humidity this weekend into early next week * Worst of the heat Sun/Mon with heat advisories likely needed * Chance of showers/t-storms Mon and Wed

Friday night .

Focus for a few showers/possible t-storm will shift to the south coast Fri night along a weak frontal boundary and theta-e ridge axis. Otherwise, mild and humid night with lows 65-70. Patchy late night fog developing.

Saturday through Monday .

Northern periphery of the subtropical ridge builds into the region which will bring increasing heat and humidity to SNE. Worst of the heat is expected Sun/Mon as 850 mb temps reach 20C with pre-frontal SW flow. Highs will reach low/mid mid 90s away from the south coast with oppressive humidity peaking on Mon as dewpoints rise into the low/mid 70s. Heat advisories will likely be needed for a portion of SNE with expected heat indices 95-100 degrees.

Dry conditions expected during the weekend, then a pre-frontal trough with low level theta-e ridge and instability axis moving through SNE supports a chance of showers/t-storms Mon. Stronger wind field and best deep layer shear will be to the north so organized severe weather threat appears low at this time.

Tuesday through Wednesday .

Timing of next somewhat more amplified mid level trough approaching from the Gt Lakes is uncertain, but impact is looking more like Wed for SNE. Post-frontal airmass Tue with somewhat lower dewpoints will limit instability so expect mainly dry weather. Then threat of showers/t-storms increases Wed as next shortwave approaches. Not much change in low level temps so another hot day Tue but with a bit less humidity. Cloud cover may result in cooler temps Wed but with increasing humidity again.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z update .

Today . High confidence

Localized MVFR cigs over the Berkshires this morning, otherwise VFR. Winds initially E to SE becoming more southerly as the day progresses. Wind speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

Thursday night . High confidence

VFR initially, but will see ceilings lower to MVFR and potentially IFR across western areas after 06Z as a warm front approaches. Rain showers spreading into western areas late. Winds out of the S at 5 to 10 kts.

Friday . Moderate confidence

Ceilings lowering to MVFR and could have some spotty IFR as a warm front lifts in. Warm front may lift through western areas, but not eastern locations. Cold front trailing behind the warm front. Both these features will bring rain showers. Could see some thunderstorms during the afternoon. Winds will be southerly at 5-10 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE. Dry and quiet weather across the waters today and for much of tonight. Could see some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms across the waters on Friday into Friday night.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/BL NEAR TERM . KJC/BL SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . KJC AVIATION . KJC/BL MARINE . KJC/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi53 min 74°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi53 min NE 8 G 9.9
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 24 mi53 min 74°F
PVDR1 24 mi53 min ENE 6 G 11
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 25 mi53 min E 6 G 8.9 72°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 26 mi53 min ENE 6 G 8.9
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 26 mi98 min E 8 69°F 1028 hPa62°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 26 mi53 min 71°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 28 mi98 min NW 1.9 66°F 1028 hPa62°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi83 min NE 13 G 14 1028.5 hPa (+1.0)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi53 min ENE 5.1 G 8.9 65°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi53 min NE 8 G 9.9 76°F
44090 32 mi56 min 66°F1 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 36 mi53 min 65°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi33 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 67°F3 ft1027.1 hPa (+1.1)58°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi33 min NE 12 G 14 73°F2 ft1026.8 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi33 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 63°F 3 ft1028.1 hPa (+1.3)54°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA6 mi31 minVar 510.00 miFair70°F57°F66%1027.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi30 minENE 710.00 miFair69°F57°F66%1027.3 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi31 minENE 810.00 miFair69°F55°F63%1027.8 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA22 mi28 minENE 810.00 miFair70°F59°F69%1027.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTAN

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr365NE6N7444E7E63CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm35
1 day agoN334E753E3E53N434343CalmCalmN3CalmN34CalmE54
2 days agoCalmW3SW4S7SW9
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SW7SW4S3S3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
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Thu -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:36 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:38 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.81.11.522.42.321.51.10.70.50.50.81.11.72.42.932.82.31.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:37 AM EDT     0.06 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:42 AM EDT     3.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:51 AM EDT     -3.77 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:01 PM EDT     3.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT     -0.18 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT     -4.00 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-21.62.93.53.53.32.71-2.5-3.5-3.8-3.4-2.50.52.63.43.63.42.91.7-2.1-3.5-4-3.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.