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Marine Weather and Tides North Lakeville, MA Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:01AM

Sunset 4:52PM

Monday January 25, 2021 2:54 PM EST (19:54 UTC)

Moonrise 2:47PM

Moonset 5:36AM

Illumination 93%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Lakeville, MA

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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 251456 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 956 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Winds slacken today into tonight as high pressure builds across southern New England. A warm front produces minor snow accumulation Tuesday night into Wednesday. Unsettled for midweek with considerable cloudiness and periods of ocean effect precipitation as a powerful low pressure near the mid-Atlantic waters passes well to our south. Period of much below normal temperatures and low wind chills for late in the week, only gradually modifying into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

10 AM Update .

Have updated things to bring it in line with the latest observations, so no changes in the latest update. Just nudged down temperatures slightly as we were a bit too warm to start off.

Previous discussion from 6 AM .

Chilly start to Monday with current temps as of this writing in the teens for most of the interior and coastal plain, to the lower 20s near the eastern MA coast. Though winds aren't quite as strong as yesterday, winds around 10-15 mph still making it feel like the single digits to the teens. Full sun expected with clear skies, though some high clouds approach late in the day. After the chilly start to the day, should see highs reach back into the upper 20s to the mid- upper 30s.

Discussion from 4 AM .

High pressure moves into southern New England today, relaxing the pressure gradient. Though it will still be gusty from mid morning into this afternoon, it will not be as strong as yesterday. With just some patches of mid and high clouds at times, and weaker cold air advection, expecting high temperatures to be right around normal for late January.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/.

High pressure will continue to move into our region tonight, before moving over the ocean by Tuesday evening. Dry weather with rather light winds prevail through tonight.

25/00Z guidance may be a bit too quick bringing precipitation back to southern New England Tuesday given the synoptic pattern. With the high pressure to the east, low levels will start out rather dry. it will take some time to saturate enough for precipitation to reach the ground. Stayed on the slower side of the guidance for this forecast, but still brought at least a chance for some light snow Tuesday afternoon across the western half of southern New England. Light snow might not reach the coast until late in the day.

Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal during this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Highlights .

* Light-accumulating snow Tues night into Wed. Possible need for winter weather advisories for the interior/Berkshires.

* Periods of ocean-effect precip and increasing north winds for coastal MA and the waters Wed into Thurs, as a powerful cyclone near the mid- Atlantic passes well southeast.

* Much colder air, some of the coldest air yet experienced in the winter season for late in the week. Sub-zero wind chills interior Thurs night, then across most of SNE Fri night.

* Moderating but still below normal temps for the weekend.

* Possible coastal storminess late Sunday or early next week? Details still uncertain.

Details:

Tuesday Night into Wednesday Night:

Looking at a couple periods of snow in this period, most notable on Tues night into early Wed; with lighter snow for later Wed into early Wed night.

In terms of trends for Tues night-early Wed, the shortwave disturbance responsible is a bit more robust at the start and also did note in uptick in QPF across most models. Still suspect the 00z GFS is a wet outlier given its tendency to overdo QPF in weak to moderately-forced warm thermal advective regimes. Despite the increase in model QPF, some of it will also be lost to saturating the column; even that looks incomplete and could support a period of FZDZ for a time. Best omega also resides below the snow growth region, suggesting that the potential for snow of even moderate- intensity might be tough to come by. The impression I get is a light- accumulating snow event. However with 850-700 mb frontogenetic forcing moving in during the latter half of the PM commute, some minor travel impact potentially Advisory-worthy now looks possible across western/central MA into northern CT where snow amounts are in the 2-5" range (highest totals in the Berkshires). Will hold on any headlines for now but may need to be considered later. Further east, amounts up to a couple inches for eastern MA/RI, and a coating for Cape Cod/Islands.

As the secondary low pulls away early on Wed, models show a signal for a trailing inverted trough which could focus another round of light snow mainly for central/eastern MA into RI and less so across the CT Valley. Snow may mix with rain across parts of southeast MA and Cape Cod.

Lows mainly in the 20s Tues and Wed nights, and highs Wed in the 30s.

Thursday:

High pressure with northerly flow remains established over Southern New England on Thurs. A potent shortwave trough moving through the central Appalachians/mid-Atlantic region on Thurs will lead to a powerful, sub-980 mb coastal low passing well south of our area (south of 40N/70W). There remains good clustering in EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble member lows in this progged track, so thinking this should be a miss for our area. Its main effect would be to increase northerly winds on our southern waters potentially to Gale levels. NNE flow with some moisture will likely lead to considerable cloudiness with potential ocean effect precip/snow for Cape Cod into South Shore. Highs mid to upper 30s.

Thursday Night into Friday Night:

A short-lived, but significant pattern change toward well below normal temperatures and low wind chills looks to be in the offing in this period. This occurs as a piece of the polar vortex centered over Hudson Bay digs southeast later Thurs night into Fri.

Models continue to advertise some of the coldest air yet experienced to this point in the winter season intruding into Southern New England Thurs night into Fri. 925 mb temps fall to around -15 to -20C, not really expected to modify until early in the weekend. The colder air will be accompanied by NW winds around 15-20 mph/gusts to 30 mph helping to produce low wind chills. Low temperatures Thurs night in the single digits to mid teens. It looks like the coldest air comes in Fri into Fri night with highs only in the teens to low 20s and lows in the single digits to low teens. Lowest wind chills Thurs night/early Fri between 5 above and 5 below zero, and around -10F across the Berkshires. By Fri night, wind chills project even lower given the colder air. Outside of Cape Cod, most areas should see sub- zero wind chills with values in parts of the interior potentially approaching Advisory levels. The air mass is so dry that opted for a dry forecast despite the potent upper low digging southward.

The Weekend:

The very cold air mass gradually modifies into the weekend, with high pressure remaining in control. This should support mainly dry weather into Sunday, though temperatures will still trend below- average for late January.

Later Sunday into Mon, there are indications of coastal storminess reflected in deterministic and ensemble guidance passing near or over SNE. Typical large spread in ensemble member lows at this range as well as varied timing limits predictability, but this late- weekend/early-next week period is one that bears watching for possible wintry weather.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today and Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. Gusty NW winds continue through today.

Tuesday: High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in precipitation timing.

VFR most of the day with mid and high clouds increasing through the day. Risk for light snow with MVFR/IFR conditions develops from W to E during the afternoon.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SN likely.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN, chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE.

NW winds will continue to diminish today into tonight as a high pressure overspreads the waters. Threat of freezing spray across the eastern coastal waters diminishes this morning. Rough seas will continue to subside as well.

Small Craft Advisories continue into tonight for the eastern outer coastal waters. Closer to shore, canceled the advisories for most of the south coastal waters based on latest observations and expectations. Extended the Small Craft Advisories for Boston Harbor and Nantucket Sound as latest observations indicated it will take a little longer for conditions to improve.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow, chance of rain.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ255.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/BL/Loconto NEAR TERM . Belk/BL/Loconto SHORT TERM . Belk LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Belk/Loconto MARINE . Belk/Loconto

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA	16 mi	55 min		35°F	41°F		1016.3 hPa (-1.7)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA	16 mi	55 min	WNW 9.9 G 13	37°F			1016.1 hPa (-1.7)
FRXM3	17 mi	55 min		36°F				9°F
PVDR1	24 mi	55 min	NW 6 G 9.9	39°F			1016.3 hPa (-1.7)	-0°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI	24 mi	55 min	WNW 13 G 16	38°F	38°F		1015.5 hPa (-2.0)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI	25 mi	55 min	NNW 7 G 15	37°F	39°F		1016.2 hPa (-1.6)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI	26 mi	55 min	N 1.9 G 6	38°F			1016.6 hPa (-2.0)
PRUR1	26 mi	103 min		36°F				1°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI	26 mi	70 min	N 5.1	38°F			1016 hPa	2°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA	26 mi	55 min		37°F	38°F		1015.6 hPa (-1.4)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA	28 mi	70 min	WNW 6	44°F			1015 hPa	19°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA	31 mi	55 min	NW 15 G 16				1016.8 hPa (-1.5)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI	31 mi	55 min	N 8 G 11	35°F	38°F		1016.1 hPa (-1.5)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI	31 mi	55 min	NNW 9.9 G 15	37°F	39°F		1016 hPa (-2.0)
44090	32 mi	59 min			40°F	3 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA	36 mi	55 min		34°F	38°F		1014.6 hPa (-1.4)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA	38 mi	35 min	NW 16 G 19	34°F	42°F		1016.4 hPa	16°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND	42 mi	35 min	W 1.9 G 3.9		38°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA	49 mi	35 min	NW 14 G 18	33°F			1014.5 hPa	18°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA

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Last 24hr

W24 G30

NW22 G28

W18 G23

W17 G24

NW16 G21

W16

NW16 G21

NW13 G18

NW13 G17

NW13 G17

NW10 G13

NW10 G13

NW9 G12

NW7 G10

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NW6 G9

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NW9 G12

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NW12 G16

NW9 G13

NW6 G9

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1 day ago

NW25 G32

W19 G24

NW16

NW21 G26

NW20 G26

NW12 G15

NW21 G26

NW15 G20

NW17 G23

NW16 G21

NW15 G20

W12 G15

NW14 G20

W17 G23

NW14 G17

W15

W19 G23

W19 G25

NW15 G21

NW20 G25

NW16 G20

NW18 G24

W24 G29

W22 G31

2 days ago

NW11

NW9

NW13 G17

W6

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W11

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W10 G13

W10

NW9 G12

W9 G12

W11 G14

NW11

NW12 G15

W16 G21

W18 G26

NW18 G23

W16

NW17 G23

W23 G28

NW18 G24

NW20 G25

NW20 G28

W18 G24

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA	6 mi	63 min	NW 8	10.00 mi	Fair	38°F	2°F	22%	1015.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA	11 mi	62 min	W 8	10.00 mi	Fair	38°F	4°F	24%	1015.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA	12 mi	63 min	NW 12	10.00 mi	Fair	36°F	7°F	30%	1015.2 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA	22 mi	80 min	NNW 9 G 17	10.00 mi	Fair	37°F	9°F	30%	1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTAN

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)

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W14 G21

NW11 G21

NW6 G17

NW6

W7

NW9

W10 G16

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NW5

NW9 G16

NW6

W4

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NW8 G16

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1 day ago

NW8 G22

W8 G22

NW7 G25

NW14 G23

W9 G15

NW12 G23

W7 G19

W10 G21

NW9 G20

NW7 G20

NW10 G17

W6 G18

W12 G20

NW7

NW7 G18

W7 G18

W8 G15

NW8

NW8 G24

NW9 G16

W14 G26

W11 G29

W13 G20

W13 G21

2 days ago

W8 G15

W10 G16

W7

W4

W3

W4

W3

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W4

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W7

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W6

W6 G15

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W9 G16

W8 G16

NW5 G17

NW11 G18

NW11 G19

W15 G21

NW10 G21

W14 G23

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Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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