Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Lakeville, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:50PM Friday January 24, 2020 11:54 AM EST (16:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:04AMMoonset 5:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1006 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night...
This afternoon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun and Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night through Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1006 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over the maritimes through tonight. Low pres will move ne from the mid atlc region Sat, tracking across southern new eng Sat night then into maine on Sun. The low pres will move into the maritimes Mon into Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Lakeville, MA
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location: 41.84, -70.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 241505 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1005 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds over the Maritimes through tonight. Low pressure approaching from the mid Atlc region will bring a period of heavy rain and gusty coastal winds late Saturday and Saturday night as it tracks across interior southern New England, and may be preceded by some light freezing drizzle over the Berkshires. Mainly dry and mild conditions return Sunday then dry and seasonable for much of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Thin cirrus in place over most of Southern New England. Satellite imagery showed an area of mid-level or thicker cirrus clouds moving over Franklin-Hampshire-Hampden counties at 945 AM and extending back through the Catskills In summary. dry weather with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Still watching an area of scattered low clouds south of the coast of Maine moving west toward the NH coast and the North Shore. These clouds will need to expand into greater sky coverage to have the effect currently in the forecast. Still very possible, so no change in the forecast. Even if the clouds do increase during the mid to late afternoon, still expecting dry weather.

Temperatures at 9 AM were still recovering from the overnight min temps. But several sites had hourly temps right on target at that time, so the trend looks fine. No changes to temperature forecasts, with values in the upper 30s northwest and 40s across most of Southern New England.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Highlights .

* Patchy light freezing drizzle/rain possible Sat morning in the Berkshires * A period of heavy rainfall late Sat into Sat night with localized urban and poor drainage flooding * Gusty winds developing late Sat and Sat evening along the coast.

Tonight .

Persistent easterly flow with high pres in the Maritimes will result in low clouds expanding north to south across SNE. Some patchy fog possible as well. There is a low risk for localized pockets of freezing drizzle over the higher terrain due to weak upslope from E/NE flow, but it is more likely dry weather will persist. Cloud cover and increasing dewpoints will result in a milder night with lows upper 20s to mid 30s.

Saturday and Saturday night .

Mid level low located over the Gt Lakes with potent neg tilt shortwave and secondary low pres lifting north across SNE Sat evening. Ahead of this shortwave, a decent low level jet 50-60 kt will develop and move across SNE with an axis of deep moisture and deep layer convergence bringing a period of heavy rain to SNE.

During Saturday morning, deeper moisture remains to the west with plenty of dry air in the mid levels while abundant low level moisture remains in place. Some of the hi-res guidance is showing some light QPF which would likely be drizzle or pockets of freezing drizzle/ snizzle over the Berkshires where temps will be near or a bit below freezing. Will have to monitor this potential in later forecasts.

By the time the steadier rainfall arrives in western New Eng later in the day, expect ptype to be all rain. NAM has coldest thermal profile and would indicate a brief period of sleet or pockets of freezing rain over higher elevations in northern MA as the steady precip moves in but changing to rain. Rest of the guidance is all rain. The main period of rainfall will occur during the late afternoon into the evening as low level jet lifts NE across the region. Progressive system but a period of heavy rain is likely, moving west to east across SNE, mainly from 21-03z and possibly lingering 03-06z eastern MA and Cape/Islands. Rainfall of 1-1.5 inches in a 3-6 hr period may produce some localized urban and poor drainage flooding. Dry slot moves into the region after midnight with rain exiting the region.

A period of gusty winds is anticipated along the coast late Sat and Sat evening as low level jet swings through. Low level inversion will limit gusts but decent pressure falls should allow a period of 30-40 mph easterly gusts along the coast as temps rise into the upper 40s. Diminishing wind after midnight as the jet lifts to the NE with wind shift to the S/SW.

A 1 to 2 ft surge is expected along the south coast around the high tide Sat evening as the low level jet is moving through. Fortunately astronomical tides are rather low and no coastal flooding is expected.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights .

* Scattered rain/snow showers linger on Sunday into the early morning hours Monday.

* The dry and quiet weather returns for Monday through Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures compared to the weekend.

Details .

Sunday and Monday .

Sunday the secondary low lifts out of southern New England into Maine while the parent low lifts north of the eastern Great Lakes into Canada. Looking aloft we see the 500 mb trough and cold pool move directly overhead along with some more marginal moisture coming in behind the dry slot from the west. This keeps the threat of scattered rain/snow showers around Sunday and to a lesser degree Monday. Thinking continues to be that the best chance to see these showers will be over the orographically favored Berkshires/western MA. However, as mentioned by the previous forecaster, with CAA aloft and diurnal heating at the surface we may have to expand those shower chances over more of the region, but not seeing enough moisture in model soundings for now. CAA will allow for deeper mixing on Sunday so with a modest 925 mb jet of 25 to 35 kts we could see wind gusts 20 to 30 mph mix down, highest along the south coast. Winds come down on Monday. We're looking at temperatures continuing ~10 degrees above normal . highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s.

Tuesday through Thursday .

Decreasing confidence in the details at this point in the forecast, but signs point to a mild and generally dry streak. At 500 mb a few weak lobes of energy rotate through around early Tuesday and again on Wednesday, but with high pressure moving in at the surface and marginal moisture available, expecting mainly clouds with perhaps a few scattered showers. High pressure center and a mid level ridge approach by late week furthering chances of quiet and dry weather. High temperatures should generally hold steady Tue-Thur, in the upper 30s or low 40s.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z Update .

Short Term /through Saturday Night/ .

This afternoon . Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR but an area of MVFR cigs may spread south and develop over NE MA late in the day. NE winds 5-10 kt.

Tonight . Moderate confidence. MVFR cigs gradually spreading south across SNE with areas of IFR possible. Patchy fog developing. Timing and areal extent of lower cigs is uncertain.

Saturday . High confidence. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions with stratus and patchy fog. Patchy drizzle or higher elevation freezing drizzle possible in the morning, with heavier rainfall holding off until late in the day in the CT valley. E wind gusts to 25 kt developing over the Cape/Islands late in the day.

Saturday night . Moderate confidence. IFR conditions with a period of heavy rain moving west to east across the region through midnight, then drying out after midnight. E wind gusts 25-35 kt along the coast during the evening, diminishing and becoming S/SW after midnight.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence. Expect MVFR cigs developing late today or this evening, but timing is uncertain. There is also some risk for IFR cigs tonight.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence. Expect MVFR cigs developing tonight, but timing is uncertain.

Outlook /Sunday through Monday/ .

Sunday through Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Short Term /through Saturday Night/ . High confidence.

Light E/NE winds this afternoon increasing later tonight with gusts up to 20 kt. Winds continue to ramp up during Sat peaking late Sat into Sat night with a period of 25-35 kt E gusts. Strongest gusts likely across eastern MA waters where gale watches have been issued. Elsewhere SCA. Winds diminish after midnight while shifting to S/SW.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/ .

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ232. Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ233-234-236. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ230. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ235-237-255-256. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for ANZ250-254.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/BW NEAR TERM . WTB/KJC/BW SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . WTB/KJC/BW MARINE . WTB/KJC/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi61 min 41°F 38°F1030.4 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi61 min 45°F 1030.3 hPa
FRXM3 17 mi61 min 40°F 28°F
PVDR1 24 mi61 min 43°F 1030.6 hPa24°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 24 mi61 min 38°F 38°F1030.3 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 25 mi61 min 41°F 38°F1030.5 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 26 mi61 min 41°F 1030.7 hPa
PRUR1 26 mi61 min 41°F 23°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 26 mi70 min NNE 5.1 41°F 1030 hPa27°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 26 mi61 min 41°F 38°F1030 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 28 mi70 min ENE 2.9 46°F 1030 hPa25°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi55 min NE 8 G 8 37°F 1030.4 hPa (+1.0)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi61 min 39°F 35°F1030 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi61 min 39°F 39°F1030.4 hPa
44090 32 mi55 min 40°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 36 mi61 min 42°F 37°F1029.8 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi65 min NNE 5.8 G 5.8 43°F 43°F3 ft1029.7 hPa (+1.1)41°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi35 min 3.9 G 5.8 1029.7 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi65 min E 5.8 G 5.8 43°F 3 ft1030.1 hPa (+1.3)34°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA6 mi63 minNE 410.00 miFair44°F27°F51%1030.1 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi62 minENE 310.00 miFair45°F25°F46%1029.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi63 minENE 610.00 miFair44°F32°F63%1030.3 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA22 mi60 minVar 410.00 miFair45°F37°F76%1030.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTAN

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7W85SW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4
1 day agoCalm3W63W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33SW6
2 days agoNW75N6N4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
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Fri -- 03:04 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:17 AM EST     3.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:53 PM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:37 PM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.2-0.1-0.2-00.51.52.63.23.12.721.30.70.2-0.1-0.10.10.81.82.62.72.41.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:48 AM EST     0.18 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:56 AM EST     4.09 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:58 AM EST     -0.05 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:55 AM EST     -4.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:13 PM EST     0.09 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:34 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:31 PM EST     4.44 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:45 PM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-4.2-3.7-2.61.33.13.94.13.83-0.6-3.3-4.4-4.7-4.3-3.4-1.52.83.94.44.442.8-1.7-3.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.