Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Riverside, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:07PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 9:48 AM CDT (14:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:09PMMoonset 6:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202008042100;;923235 Fzus53 Klot 041435 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 935 Am Cdt Tue Aug 4 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-042100- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 935 Am Cdt Tue Aug 4 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..North winds 20 to 25 kt. Becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 6 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Riverside, IL
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location: 41.84, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 041123 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 623 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SHORT TERM. 259 AM CDT

Through Wednesday .

Lingering precipitation chances will continue to pare back across the region today as drier air and increasing subsidence aloft works its way overhead. We will hold onto some low (20-30%) PoPs this morning, however, for locales near and immediately downwind of the lake as instability parameters still support some degree of lake effect activity, and latest satellite and radar mosaics depict a developing area of showers in a region of enhanced convergence upstream. These light showers should continue to work their way down the lake this morning. While not quite as favorable as yesterday, can't entirely discount a brief waterspout potential through mid-late morning with any showers along this convergence axis.

Instability parameters over the lake will become less favorable for precipitation development this afternoon, and the combination of increasing subsidence and drier low-level air should effectively cut off any lingering lake-effect precipitation chances, with just a scattered to broken deck of clouds steadily thinning through the day.

No changes to the ongoing headlines have been made at this time. Signs of another slight wind surge behind this area of showers across the lake may help to keep wave action elevated today. Conditions are expected to ease, however, this afternoon and especially overnight tonight.

High temperatures will be in the upper 60s/near 70 degrees near the lakeshore, and in the low to possibly mid 70s inland with more prevalent sunshine expected today. Clearing skies and the much drier airmass (dewpoints in the mid 40s and lower 50s) combined with light and variable winds will allow temperatures to cool fairly readily tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few mid 40 degree readings towards Wednesday morning in our cooler spots west of the more urbanized corridors. Can't entirely rule out some shallow patchy fog, but the near-surface moisture layer looks extremely thin and may end up just resulting in dew as moisture is squeezed out of the cooling airmass.

Wednesday's looking like a pretty fantastic day with temperatures rebounding a bit in the mid and upper 70s inland, with a lake breeze likely holding lakeside locales in the low 70s. Should see clouds thicken up a bit more towards the later afternoon hours ahead of an approaching shortwave (a fairly robust one at that currently north of Montana). Extremely dry mid-level air will inhibit any precipitation development, however.

Carlaw

LONG TERM. 259 AM CDT

Wednesday night through Monday .

After a taste of fall, we'll return to our normal scheduled programming of August weather Thursday onward as we trend toward warmer and more humid air, as well as increasing chances for thunderstorm episodes.

Thursday into Friday, a surface high pressure system will be positioned over the Great Lakes allowing for beautiful summer days. Ample sunshine will enable highs to climb into the low/mid 80s, and a relatively dry low-level profile will support lows in the upper 50s to around 60. Daily lake breezes will keep lakeshore communities some 4-8 degrees cooler during the afternoon and evening hours. By the weekend, southwesterly flow becomes established from the Gulf of Mexico to Great Lakes leading to increasing temperatures and humidity levels. Indeed, ensemble model guidance suggests 850 mb temperatures will be back in the "normal" range of the upper teens (Celcius) by Saturday allowing highs to climb into the upper 80s to around 90. Dew points will return to the upper 60s to lower 70s as well, pushing heat index values above 90 once again (mainly Sunday onward).

Increasing moisture and temperatures naturally carries increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, with the forecast upper-level pattern starting to look supportive of quintessential summertime mesoscale convective systems. Of course nailing down when and where they will develop is a futile effort at this range, though the ECMWF ensemble seems to favor the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe for activity close to home. While the forecast from Sunday onward accordingly features anywhere from 20% to 40% chances for thunderstorms, most hours will actually be dry. And, of course, observed highs will be dependent on timing of any convective wave should they come close.

Borchardt

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs .

Currently, a narrow band of showers over Lake Michigan is streaming southward toward GYY. The band of showers is being maintained by the confluence of winds via overnight land breezes, allowing for a westerly component to the winds at ORD/MDW (330-350). Just north of the band, a secondary surge of gusty north/northeasterly winds is thought to be occurring over the lake. Taken altogether, a challenging wind forecast remains primarily at ORD/MDW.

Going forward, the expectation is the band of showers will remain offshore helping maintain the slight westerly component to the winds at ORD/MDW (though a VCSH remains warranted). Should the band manage to build inland, a flop to northeasterly winds is possible for a few hours before northwesterly winds become reestablished. Additionally, winds may become somewhat gusty for a few hours this morning as mixing commences before the influence of a building high pressure system slackens the low- level wind field. Finally, later today, a modest lake breeze is expected to push inland flopping winds northeasterly (again?) at ORD/MDW. Winds will become light and variable tonight, and then westerly (though still light) after daybreak Wednesday.

Elsewhere, a more straight-forward (literally) forecast is in the cards with primarily north/northwesterly winds decreasing with time, and becoming and variable overnight. A scattered VFR cloud deck is possible this afternoon before easing to a few high clouds overnight.

Borchardt

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Beach Hazards Statement . ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104 until 7 AM Wednesday.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory . ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104 until 4 PM Tuesday.

IN . Beach Hazards Statement . INZ001-INZ002 until 7 AM Wednesday.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory . INZ001-INZ002 until 10 PM Tuesday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . nearshore waters until 4 AM Wednesday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 11 mi33 min NNW 14 G 17 64°F 55°F
OKSI2 12 mi108 min N 1.9 G 7 64°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi48 min NNW 22 G 24 65°F 54°F
JAKI2 14 mi108 min N 9.9 G 15 65°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi54 min NNW 11 G 19 64°F 1017.3 hPa54°F
45174 22 mi38 min NNW 18 G 23 66°F 72°F5 ft1018.2 hPa56°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 36 mi108 min NNW 9.9 G 13 60°F
45187 45 mi28 min N 14 G 19 63°F 70°F3 ft
45170 46 mi28 min 14 G 23 66°F 73°F6 ft58°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi48 min NNE 18 G 22 64°F 56°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL5 mi55 minN 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F51°F61%1017.6 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi57 minN 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F48°F54%1018.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi56 minN 10 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds63°F48°F60%1018.9 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL22 mi73 minN 1010.00 miFair63°F52°F70%1018.6 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi56 minN 1310.00 miFair64°F50°F60%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N8N8N10N10N12N13N14N16N14N8N12N13
G19
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N10N10N8NW7NW10NW10N9N8N12
1 day agoW5W4SW5SW7W9
G16
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NE8CalmNW7CalmSW3NW4NW4NW5NW5N8N9NW8N9N10N11
2 days agoSE3E4E56E4E8E7NE9NE8NE8NE8NE7SE4SE5SW5CalmSW3SW6SW5SW6SW9W9W5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.