Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Riverside, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:21PM Monday December 9, 2019 3:55 PM CST (21:55 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201912100445;;105417 Fzus53 Klot 092048 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 248 Pm Cst Mon Dec 9 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>743-100445- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 248 Pm Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..West winds to 30 kt. Occasional gale force gusts in the evening. Chance of rain in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft in the late evening and early morning, then subsiding to 3 to 5 ft late.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 kt diminishing to 15 to 20 kt by late morning. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of snow in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Riverside, IL
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location: 41.84, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 092048 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 248 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

SHORT TERM.

248 PM CST

Through Tuesday .

Main forecast concerns are with the passage of a strong cold front late this afternoon/early this evening. A brief band of low visibility in moderate snow is possible across far northern IL, with gust west winds dropping temperatures quickly this evening.

Early afternoon surface analysis shows 993 mb low across northern lower Michigan. A strong cold front trails from the deepening low, crossing the Mississippi River into western IL. Sharp temperature drop noted across the frontal zone, with mid-40s in place across the cwa as of 2 pm, dropping quickly into the low-mid 20s west of the river across eastern IA. Impressive look to the upper wave on GOES vapor imagery, with the low level frontal zone also a bit more intense than guidance had depicted over the past couple of days. Stronger frontogenetic forcing, focused around 850 mb, has also been producing a narrow but intense band of primarily snow behind the front across IA this afternoon. Rapid drop in visibility within this band to 1/4SM or less had produced many accidents across IA, with a 50-car pileup on I-80 near DSM earlier. While high-res guidance trends continue to indicate a gradual weakening and erosion from the southwest as the band moves east across northern IL late this afternoon, felt it prudent to fill in a winter weather advisory for far northern IL in agreement with DVN and MKX. For simplicity, ran the headline though 6 pm/00Z, though main impacts from snow band look to be only on the order of 30-45 minutes as it moves through any given area. Thus headlines can be cancelled for counties from west to east as band moves through and precip ends. Still some concern especially farther east that shallow moisture/lack of ice nucleation will prevent much in the way of snow have mentioned more of a rain or rain/snow mix into the Chicago metro area and points south.

Otherwise, gusty west winds and strong cold advection are the story tonight, with temperatures dropping into the teens and low 20s across the area. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph during the evening will slowly diminish overnight, though blustery and cold conditions linger into Tuesday. The combination of wind and cold will produce wind chills in the single digits (negative single digits across north central IL) tonight and only in the teens at best Tuesday. Skies do look to clear out late tonight, providing welcome sunshine for Tuesday, with very dry moisture profiles in the arctic air mass.

Ratzer

LONG TERM. 124 PM CST

Tuesday Night through Monday .

Mostly clear skies beginning Tuesday night should allow temps to drop quickly into the teens and single digits across the area. Increasing cloud cover from an approaching weak clipper system early Wednesday morning could limit additional cooling. Despite this, northwest winds will likely result in wind chills values in the single digits to just below zero.

There is a brief period where we could see some flurries/light snow across the area Wednesday morning as the aforementioned weak clipper system moves through. The combination of strong 850 baroclinicity and associated isentropic lift/frontogenesis could support a brief period of light snow, although uncertainty remains on the overall intensity/coverage due to model variability and being under a fairly dry airmass. Currently have a mention of flurries across most of the area by Wednesday morning. If confidence increases, it may be necessary to include some light snow accumulations given that ground temperatures will be sufficiently cold to limit melting. Highs Wednesday will again be in the 20s and lows drop into the teens.

Temperatures begin to rebound Thursday as the surface high and cold air shift to the north and east and southerly flow returns. Highs on Thursday will be near normal in the mid 30s, and slightly above normal by Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 30s to 40s. The overall pattern remains active during this period, with slight precip chances Friday night through Sunday. Multiple weak upper level disturbances track across the area and appear to blend together in the forecast due to model variability. Will continue to monitor trends as this gets closer to better determine timing of rain/snow potential.

Petr/Rodriguez

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

Primary concerns for Chicago airports are:

- IFR ceilings and visibility early this afternoon in drizzle and light fog. Generally 500-800 ft, though LIFR persists west of Chicago early this afternoon.

- Strong west winds gusting as high as 35 kt this evening behind a cold front which will move through 22-23Z.

- Chance for scattered showers immediately along/behind the cold front early this evening. Mainly rain expected, though a few wet snow flakes may be possible, especially north/northwest of ORD.

Deepening low pressure was passing off to the northeast of the forecast area at midday, with a sharp cold front trailing along the Mississippi River. Ahead of the front, IFR/LIFR conditions persist in the warm sector into early afternoon, with the lowest conditions expected to remain generally west/northwest of metro Chicago terminals. A period of scattered rain or rain/snow showers is expected along/immediately behind the cold front, though coverage is expected to decrease south of ORD. Areas northwest of ORD are more likely to see some brief wet snow showers, with shallower moist layer further east into Chicago metro terminals less likely to support ice nucleation and snow. Showers should be fairly short lived, with precipitation finished by early this evening. Transition to MVFR ceilings/VFR visibility is then expected quickly behind the cold front, with a gradual lifting of ceilings and eventual scattering to VFR after midnight.

As for winds, will likely see some sporadic gusts 15-20 kts developing ahead of the cold front this afternoon from the southwest. Winds will turn westerly with the passage of the cold front, with a period of strong winds gusting as high as 35 kt this evening. Winds will generally remain in the 280-290 degree range tonight into Tuesday, with speeds and gusts gradually diminishing through the period.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Winter Weather Advisory . ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008- ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012 until 6 PM Monday.

IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . Winthrop Harbor to Gary IN until 9 AM Tuesday.

Gale Warning . LMZ744-LMZ745 . 6 PM Monday to 2 AM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ744-LMZ745 . 2 AM Tuesday to 3 PM Tuesday.



VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK . TWITTER . AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 11 mi25 min WSW 9.9 G 14 48°F 43°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi55 min WSW 18 G 24 49°F 47°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi55 min SW 8 G 12 48°F 997.3 hPa (-0.3)47°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi35 min SW 20 G 21 46°F 44°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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N8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL5 mi62 minWSW 12 G 204.00 miFog/Mist49°F46°F90%997.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi64 minWSW 16 G 233.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F45°F96%997.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi63 minWSW 8 G 203.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F44°F86%997.4 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL22 mi80 minW 14 G 194.00 miDrizzle47°F45°F96%998 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi63 minW 18 G 254.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy46°F43°F89%997.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8
G18
S7S4S6SW5S3S7S5S5S6S8S8S9SW8SW8SW9SW9SW9SW9SW8SW11SW12W13W12
G20
1 day agoS6S8S7S6S7S8S9S9S10S8S9S10S10S12S12
G20
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2 days agoNE10NE6NE5NE3E4E4SW3CalmSW5S5S12CalmCalmCalmS4S5S8S8S8SW10S11SW10S9S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.