Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dune Acres, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:16PM Friday April 3, 2020 6:54 PM CDT (23:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:55PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Expires:202004040315;;522117 Fzus63 Kmkx 031956 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 256 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 3 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.9 inches over western ontario will move to the hudson bay area by Saturday afternoon. This will drag a cold front across lake michigan late tonight as east to southeast winds gradually veer to the northwest after midnight. Expect brisk northwest winds behind the front for Saturday morning. High pressure of 30.3 inches will then build over the great lakes region Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will become light for early next week. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-040315- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 256 pm cdt Fri apr 3 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 kt backing to northwest 10 to 20 kt. Rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north. Chance of rain in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 5 to 10 kt. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ779


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dune Acres, IN
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location: 41.87, -87.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 032347 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 647 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SHORT TERM. 202 PM CDT

Through Saturday night .

The lake breeze is positioned across the area from NW to SE, fighting a stronger southwest low level wind where inland temperatures have surged into the upper 60s inland. Meanwhile, a concentrated area of precipitation is located along a fairly sharp cold front across Iowa and extending into the southern Plains. Precipitation upstream of the local area has not just been rain but snow and freezing rain as the initially shallow/sloped cold frontal boundary undercuts the warmer air aloft. The upper forcing is not all that strong, and radar loops depict occasional weakening/narrowing of the precip shield occasionally augmented by periods of frontal induced strengthening at times.

Fortunately our temperatures have warmed considerably (as have pavement temps) today to make this unlikely in northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. There is some weak isentropic lift ahead of front which will lead to some spottier pre-frontal showers this evening. The upper trough and associated surface front will move into the region tonight and will expand the showers across the area. The upper trough is progged to lift north as it moves east, with progressively weaker large scale ascent with eastward extent, so should see some decrease in precipitation intensity and perhaps coverage as rain moves east overnight into Saturday morning, though some occasional frontogenesis will allow some local reinvigoration.

In wake of rain late tonight into Saturday look for skies to clear out from the west, with a significantly cooler air mass in place in the wake of the cold front. The surface high will move into the western Great Lakes region and set the stage for another healthy lake breeze Saturday afternoon and evening, with much cooler temps (40s) expected near the lake.

KMD

LONG TERM. 315 PM CDT

Sunday through Friday .

The main concern is the threat for thunderstorms at times Monday PM through Tuesday evening/night. While it is several days out, the large scale pattern on Tuesday PM may be supportive of a strong to severe thunderstorm risk in the region.

After a chilly start to Sunday, the afternoon will have a nice recovery inland back into the upper 50s to around 60 under mostly sunny skies. High pressure centered over Lake Michigan will bring onshore flow through the day, keeping lakeside areas in the mid to upper 40s.

The unsettled stretch of weather Monday through Tuesday night will bring the threat for a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure will exit east, yielding developing southerly winds. True warm front with better moisture surge will not lift north until Monday night into Tuesday morning.

On Monday, low amplitude mid and upper ridging over the Midwest may be topped by a lead short-wave in westerly flow aloft. The guidance indicates that a plume of fairly steep mid-level lapse rates will be advected eastward, which should yield sufficient MUCAPE for a threat for scattered embedded thunderstorms Monday PM-night. There is timing uncertainty with this lead wave. Temperatures Monday afternoon will further moderate well into the 60s, though presence of clouds and precip. may temper them a bit. Also, the Illinois shore will likely hold onto onshore flow, especially with northward extent, to keep highs in the 50s.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, as mentioned, a warm front will be lifting north, carrying dew points into the lower 60s for many areas. A strong EML with mid-level lapse rates approaching or possibly exceeding 8C/km will be over the area, which would likely present a cap to thunderstorm development for part of the daytime as things stand now. The mid-level pattern will trend to northwest flow. While the guidance has been waffling on the location of a surface low pressure system, the trend today was a track from the northern Plains to the northern Lakes, tied to a mid-level short- wave. This wave would then potentially approach toward early evening, providing height falls and cooling aloft to erode the cap, with low level convergence from surface cold front. Assuming we are capped and dry out for a portion of the day with some sun, temps could warm well into the 70s per 850 mb temps in the mid teens C.

Aforementioned set-up with temps in 70s and lower 60s dew points could yield moderate instability of 1000-1500+ j/kg MLCAPE. This is concerning as strengthening northwest flow with approaching wave later in the day/early evening may support 35-50 kt of deep layer bulk shear and a strongly veering profile. This period will be one to watch for northwest flow strong to severe thunderstorm risk Tuesday PM. The above described wind profiles would potentially be supportive of supercells depending on overall evolution and cold front timing.

Initial cold front will knock temps down only slightly for Wednesday into the 60s. A secondary cold front Wednesday evening/night will bring a healthier surge of cooler air. Precipitation with this secondary front will depend on magnitude of large scale forcing. Official forecast has a dry forecast for now this far out, but note that 12z ECMWF and GFS do indicate precip potential. Thursday will have breezy-west northwest winds and temps only in 50s followed by lighter winds under high pressure Friday, when afternoon temps may struggle to reach 50 degrees.

Castro

AVIATION. For the 00Z TAFs .

There are several aviation weather concerns this period which include:

-Northwest wind shift with an incoming cold front -Development of MVFR and spotty IFR cigs -Period of -SHRA with reduced vsbys -Potential for brief period of -DZ towards early Saturday morning -Low potential for temperatures to approach freezing as precipitation ends at RFD -Lake breeze push Saturday afternoon

Cold front is currently pushing through RFD at this time, and will be making steady progress towards the Chicago-area terminals through the mid-late evening and have nudged the timing of FROPA up just a bit from the previous forecast. Have also moved the mention of showers prevailing with the expectation that coverage will be on the increase late this evening and overnight. Based on upstream observations, some occasional IFR cigs/vsbys appear possible as the frontal inversion continues to cool and saturate. Did contemplate adding a brief period of -DZ into the TAFs as the main area of showers pulls away, but confidence was not quite high enough to do so. However, have added a mention at GYY as cool/moist flow looks to continue off the lake through the morning hours on Saturday, and it's possible that cigs/vsbys are still a bit too optimistic in this current TAF.

Regarding the RFD TAF: some forecast guidance indicates temperatures may get close to the freezing mark as precipitation ends late tonight. At this time, think that dry air will make sufficient inroads to shut any precipitation of consequence off before temperatures fall to within a degree or two of the freezing mark and have left any frozen precipitation mention out of the TAF. Should -DZ be more expansive than currently anticipated, there could be a low potential for a brief period of -FZDZ at RFD towards 10-13z or so, but this again appears to be on the lower end of the probabilistic spectrum.

MVFR cigs should scatter through the morning/early afternoon, with a lake breeze likely to push through the Chicago-area terminals sometime during the 18-20z timeframe.

Carlaw

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 18 mi34 min ENE 12 G 14 49°F 38°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi34 min SSE 4.1 G 6 46°F 40°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 20 mi54 min ESE 4.1 G 6 49°F 1015.1 hPa (-0.5)39°F
CNII2 22 mi39 min Calm G 4.1 51°F 36°F
OKSI2 23 mi114 min E 4.1 G 6 58°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN21 mi69 minENE 510.00 miOvercast63°F0°F%1015.6 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN23 mi59 minSSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F51°F60%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGYY

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSE4CalmSE4SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE10NE5
1 day agoNE5NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE8NE8NE8NE9NE10--
2 days agoN9N15N13N9N11N12N7N9NW10NW10
G15
NW13N6N8N5NW9N7NW6N8N6N8N6N7NE5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.