Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dune Acres, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:18PM Monday December 9, 2019 6:25 PM CST (00:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 5:11AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Expires:201912100415;;104601 Fzus63 Kmkx 092030 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 230 Pm Cst Mon Dec 9 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A low pressure of 29.3 inches across northern lower michigan will pull further away tonight dragging an arctic front through the region. Strong north to northwest winds will develop in the wake of the cold front and persist overnight. Winds will gradually diminish and though breezy west winds will linger into Tuesday. The much colder airmass will lead to freezing spray at times through mid-week && lmz080-675-777-779-876-878-100415- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 230 pm cst Mon dec 9 2019 wind point wi to holland mi south...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm this evening to 2 am cst Tuesday...
Tonight..West gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Scattered rain showers this evening, then scattered snow showers, rain showers and slight chance of light freezing rain overnight. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft building to 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Scattered snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of snow. Freezing spray overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northwest. Freezing spray in the morning. Chance of snow in the morning. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to southeast. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ779


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dune Acres, IN
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location: 41.87, -87.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 092340 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 540 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

SHORT TERM.

248 PM CST

Through Tuesday .

Main forecast concerns are with the passage of a strong cold front late this afternoon/early this evening. A brief band of low visibility in moderate snow is possible across far northern IL, with gust west winds dropping temperatures quickly this evening.

Early afternoon surface analysis shows 993 mb low across northern lower Michigan. A strong cold front trails from the deepening low, crossing the Mississippi River into western IL. Sharp temperature drop noted across the frontal zone, with mid-40s in place across the cwa as of 2 pm, dropping quickly into the low-mid 20s west of the river across eastern IA. Impressive look to the upper wave on GOES vapor imagery, with the low level frontal zone also a bit more intense than guidance had depicted over the past couple of days. Stronger frontogenetic forcing, focused around 850 mb, has also been producing a narrow but intense band of primarily snow behind the front across IA this afternoon. Rapid drop in visibility within this band to 1/4SM or less had produced many accidents across IA, with a 50-car pileup on I-80 near DSM earlier. While high-res guidance trends continue to indicate a gradual weakening and erosion from the southwest as the band moves east across northern IL late this afternoon, felt it prudent to fill in a winter weather advisory for far northern IL in agreement with DVN and MKX. For simplicity, ran the headline though 6 pm/00Z, though main impacts from snow band look to be only on the order of 30-45 minutes as it moves through any given area. Thus headlines can be cancelled for counties from west to east as band moves through and precip ends. Still some concern especially farther east that shallow moisture/lack of ice nucleation will prevent much in the way of snow have mentioned more of a rain or rain/snow mix into the Chicago metro area and points south.

Otherwise, gusty west winds and strong cold advection are the story tonight, with temperatures dropping into the teens and low 20s across the area. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph during the evening will slowly diminish overnight, though blustery and cold conditions linger into Tuesday. The combination of wind and cold will produce wind chills in the single digits (negative single digits across north central IL) tonight and only in the teens at best Tuesday. Skies do look to clear out late tonight, providing welcome sunshine for Tuesday, with very dry moisture profiles in the arctic air mass.

Ratzer

LONG TERM. 124 PM CST

Tuesday Night through Monday .

Mostly clear skies beginning Tuesday night should allow temps to drop quickly into the teens and single digits across the area. Increasing cloud cover from an approaching weak clipper system early Wednesday morning could limit additional cooling. Despite this, northwest winds will likely result in wind chills values in the single digits to just below zero.

There is a brief period where we could see some flurries/light snow across the area Wednesday morning as the aforementioned weak clipper system moves through. The combination of strong 850 baroclinicity and associated isentropic lift/frontogenesis could support a brief period of light snow, although uncertainty remains on the overall intensity/coverage due to model variability and being under a fairly dry airmass. Currently have a mention of flurries across most of the area by Wednesday morning. If confidence increases, it may be necessary to include some light snow accumulations given that ground temperatures will be sufficiently cold to limit melting. Highs Wednesday will again be in the 20s and lows drop into the teens.

Temperatures begin to rebound Thursday as the surface high and cold air shift to the north and east and southerly flow returns. Highs on Thursday will be near normal in the mid 30s, and slightly above normal by Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 30s to 40s. The overall pattern remains active during this period, with slight precip chances Friday night through Sunday. Multiple weak upper level disturbances track across the area and appear to blend together in the forecast due to model variability. Will continue to monitor trends as this gets closer to better determine timing of rain/snow potential.

Petr/Rodriguez

AVIATION. For the 00Z TAFs .

Gusty west-northwest (280-300) expected tonight with the strongest winds likely this evening. A few gusts over 35kt are possible early this evening with gust magnitude and frequency both decreasing late this evening into the overnight hours. MVFR cigs will likely persist through the evening with skies likely to clear after midnight. Otherwise, no weather concerns expected for the remainder of the TAF cycle.

- Izzi

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Gale Warning . Gary to Michigan City IN until 2 AM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ744-LMZ745 . 2 AM Tuesday to 3 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory . Winthrop Harbor to Gary IN until 9 AM Tuesday.



VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 18 mi35 min WSW 23 G 25 44°F 40°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi95 min W 26 G 33 47°F 44°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 20 mi157 min WSW 9.9 G 21 48°F 997.5 hPa46°F
CNII2 22 mi40 min W 11 G 15 41°F 34°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 41 mi85 min SSW 16 G 20 44°F 998.6 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN21 mi41 minWSW 12 G 2410.00 miOvercast45°F37°F76%1000.7 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN23 mi31 minW 11 G 2110.00 miOvercast46°F46°F100%1000 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGYY

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S4S7--S6S6S5S7S6S6S8SW5SW9SW9SW10SW10SW8SW6SW8SW7SW10W9
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1 day agoS6S6S7S6S9
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2 days agoN4NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmS6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S6S7S8S7S8S8S5S5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.