Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Raynham Center, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:15PM Thursday December 5, 2019 3:34 PM EST (20:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:11PMMoonset 1:02AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 118 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat and Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon and Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 118 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will cross the waters today bringing near gale force nw wind gusts into this evening. This will be followed by a fast moving low pres system and secondary cold front that crosses the region later Fri into Fri evening. Large high pres then builds in from the west Sat into Sat night. The high pres system moves off the coast Sun as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west Mon into Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raynham Center, MA
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location: 41.9, -71.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 051802 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 102 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move across the region today with colder and blustery conditions expected this afternoon and tonight. A Clipper Low will push through Friday with periods of light snow in the afternoon and early evening. Colder, drier air moves in Friday night and Saturday as high pressure brings dry weather for the weekend. The high moves offshore Sunday, starting a return flow of milder air for the first half of the week. This flow of milder air will also bring showers later Sunday night through Tuesday. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, followed by a return to colder air for Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

1 PM Update . Tranquil weather today with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Snow showers have not made it out of the Berkshires so will be dry this afternoon for most locations. Noted that temperatures are already into the upper 30s in the interior and low to mid 40s near the coast so have adjusted afternoon temperatures upward by a few degrees. It will feel almost spring-like out there this afternoon with the sunshine. Winds will be a nuisance though with NW winds gusting up to 25 kts.

Early morning discussion .

Short wave trough and associated cold pool aloft (-33C air at 500 mb) accompanied by mid level lapse rates on the order of 7-7.5 C/KM and sufficient forcing for ascent to yield lots of clouds with a few embedded light snow showers/flurries. However deep layer moisture is lacking so not expecting much if any accumulation and activity will be limited in areal coverage. Thus scattered with not every town impacted.

Behind departing short wave FROPA occurs and winds will pickup from the NW in increasing CAA. Also post frontal airmass will allow clouds to give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. Still chilly for this time of year with highs only in the mid to upper 30s inland to lower 40s elsewhere, about 3-5 degs colder than normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Tonight .

Another chilly night with mostly clear skies and WNW winds slowly dropping off overnight, allowing cold temps especially interior valleys. Given the diminishing winds leaned on MOS guidance to derive temps with lows in the teens inland, 20s for much of RI and eastern MA.

Friday .

Any morning sunshine fades behind increasing clouds as a clipper low zips across CT/RI and southeast MA. Typical clipper low, very progressive with about a 6 hour window of snow, here from about 1 pm to 7 pm. Modest 850 mb SW jet with speeds up to 45-50 kt. Nose of jet crosses CT/RI and south of the Pike in MA. Thus expecting this region to get into the steadiest snow. Typical clipper low with snow accumulations on the order from a coating up to 2 inches. Not a lot of snow but the timing could impact the late day commute. Needs to be watched.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Big Picture .

Zonal flow over the weekend with northern and southern jets with the northern jet along the Canadian border but dipping south over New England. Shortwave in the northern flow moves southeast from coastal Alaska and digs over the Central USA, forming a broad trough over the continent and turning our zonal flow out of the southwest. A strong jet moves ashore over southern California Saturday. It gets caught by digging trough and turns northeast up the Appalachians Monday and Tuesday. The trough axis then moves across our area Wednesday.

Normal 500-mb heights in this area in early December are in the upper 540s and 550s. Forecast heights are on the lower/colder side of this range Friday and Saturday, but moderates to the higher/warmer side Sunday through Tuesday. These values then lower again Wednesday as the upper trough moves overhead. Looks like a cold finish to this week, a milder trend for early next week, and a return to cooler temps midweek.

Mass fields and thermal fields in the models are similar through Tuesday but show some model-to-model differences next Wednesday. This means moderate to high confidence through the early week, with moderate confidence on Wednesday.

Daily Concerns .

Friday night through Sunday .

Coastal low pressure moves east of Srn New England Friday night. Rain and snow showers taper off early Friday night, with winds turning from the northwest and bringing colder drier air over the region. High pressure builds over the region Saturday and moves offshore Sunday. The resulting subsidence will support dry sunny weather each day. Dew points fall into the teens Friday night and stay there until Sunday afternoon. The mixed layer is forecast to 925 mb Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures at that level are from -7C to -9C Saturday and -4C to -5C Sunday . supporting surface max temps mid 20s to low 30s Saturday and 30s to low 40s Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday .

As the upper trough digs into the USA, the flow over us turns from the southwest, bringing milder air our way. Expect increasing clouds, and after an evening cooldown our temperatures should then become milder overnight. Expect warm advection lift as the milder air flows over the colder denser air at the surface. In addition, the indirect circulation at the nose of the jet will also aid in lift as it approaches Monday. This points to a period of showers late Sunday night through Tuesday, ending Tuesday night as the upper trough swings a cold front through our area.

The exact timing of the precipitation will be a concern . if the precip arrives sooner, it may interact with the departing cold air and create some sleet/freezing rain in Western and Central MA. The more likely scenario is milder, so we will stay with a rain shower forecast.

A second concern will be winds. A low level southerly jet will approach on Monday with 50-60 kt winds aloft. This wind turns a little from the southwest for Tuesday. Warm advection will work against mixing this wind to the surface, but suspect our gusts will be a little stronger than the forecast data indicates, with a potential for 35-45 mph. As this is still four days out, we will go with a more conservative wind forecast for now and monitor future runs.

The warm airmass should support max sfc temps in the 50s both Monday and Tuesday.

Cold drier air moves back in Wednesday with temps aloft supporting 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/ . High confidence.

1pm Update .

Today . VFR with isolated snow showers/flurries, mainly over the far interior. Otherwise becoming windy as the day progresses with NW gusts up to 30 kts possible during this afternoon.

Tonight . VFR, dry runways and diminishing winds toward morning.

Friday . VFR to start the day but then cigs lowering to MVFR along with brief periods of light to moderate snow 18z-00z. A coating to an inch for most locations except up to 2 inches possible in interior higher elevations.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible early. Breezy.

Saturday through Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible late. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely.

MARINE. Short Term /through Friday Night/ . High confidence.

Today . Increasing NW winds 25-35 kt as the day progresses. Mainly dry along with good vsby.

Tonight . NW winds 25-35 kt along with mainly dry weather and good vsby. Winds beginning to slacken late.

Friday . clipper low zips across CT/RI and southeast MA during the day and accompanied by a period of light winds until about 00z. Vsby will lower to 1 mile or less in snow.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain showers likely.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ232. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ233-234. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EST Friday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ235-237. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ250. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ254. Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Friday for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Nocera NEAR TERM . Frank/Chai SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . Frank/Chai MARINE . Frank/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi53 min 42°F 42°F1005.3 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi47 min NW 18 G 25 44°F 1004.8 hPa
FRXM3 16 mi53 min 42°F 25°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 21 mi53 min NNW 13 G 18 42°F 45°F1005 hPa
PVDR1 21 mi47 min WNW 18 G 25 42°F 1005.3 hPa20°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 21 mi47 min WNW 16 G 21 41°F 44°F1005 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 25 mi47 min NNW 8 G 18 43°F 1005.6 hPa
PRUR1 25 mi47 min 44°F 20°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 25 mi50 min NW 8 43°F 1005 hPa23°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 30 mi53 min WNW 11 G 17 42°F 45°F1005.3 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 31 mi47 min 43°F 41°F1003.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi53 min NW 13 G 17 42°F 40°F1005 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 32 mi53 min 43°F 43°F1004.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi50 min W 6 47°F 1004 hPa29°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi35 min WNW 21 G 24 42°F 1005.9 hPa (+2.1)
44090 37 mi35 min 46°F2 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 37 mi45 min W 21 G 25 43°F 48°F3 ft1002.7 hPa (+1.7)30°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi35 min 21 G 27 43°F 44°F28°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 49 mi91 min NW 16 G 19 43°F 47°F2 ft1000.8 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA1 mi43 minWNW 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast42°F23°F47%1004.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA15 mi42 minW 16 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F23°F49%1004.7 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA15 mi43 minWNW 1010.00 miOvercast40°F26°F58%1004.3 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI20 mi39 minWNW 10 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F19°F46%999.8 hPa
East Milton, MA22 mi44 minWNW 14 G 22 mi37°F25°F62%1004.9 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA22 mi42 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast42°F24°F49%1004.4 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA23 mi40 minVar 6 G 1410.00 miOvercast43°F26°F53%1004.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTAN

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W5W6W10
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1 day agoNW10
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W8NW5NW6NW4W3W4W4W5W7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW5SW7W64CalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:03 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:20 AM EST     2.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:02 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:40 PM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:13 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:29 PM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.92.32.321.61.20.90.80.70.80.91.21.72.22.32.11.71.30.90.60.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:01 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:39 AM EST     3.66 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:12 AM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:51 AM EST     -3.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:03 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:02 PM EST     3.31 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     -0.17 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:11 PM EST     -3.83 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:24 PM EST     0.17 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.63.42.81.3-2.5-3.4-3.7-3.3-2.5-0.62.33.13.33.22.71.5-2.2-3.4-3.8-3.6-3-1.62

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.