Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Whiting, IN

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:46PM Monday August 19, 2019 9:08 AM CDT (14:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:01PMMoonset 9:45AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Expires:201908192130;;882496 Fzus63 Kmkx 191353 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 853 Am Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.0 inches will move across lake michigan today resulting in lighter winds into tonight. West winds across the northern part of the lake will subside a bit as the high moves closer. South to southwest winds will increase across the lake on Tuesday as the high pulls way and low pressure of 29.8 inches moves over minnesota. The low will move across the lake Tuesday night. Gusty north winds are expected on Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of high pressure of 30.1 inches in the northern plains. The winds will remain somewhat elevated into Thursday. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-192130- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 853 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..Variable winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ779


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whiting, IN
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location: 41.9, -87.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 191144
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
644 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019

Short term
239 am cdt
through Tuesday...

the main story of the short term portion of the forecast is that
mainly dry conditions will likely be punctuated by occasional
shower and storm chances. We also continue to monitor a potential
for a forward propogating MCS to drop out of iowa on Tuesday with
an attendant threat for severe weather somewhere across illinois
(whether or not impacts are felt well into northeast illinois
remains to be seen).

A weak cold front is ever-so-slowly sagging southward early this
morning into southern iowa and just now pushing into far
southwestern wisconsin. Ahead of this feature, the airmass remains
noticeably moist, with dewpoints running in the mid and upper 60s
across all of northeast illinois and northwest indiana. Dewpoint
depressions are essentially near nil in most locales at this time.

Given the combination of mainly clear skies (south of i-80),
favorable downward-directed near-surface moisture fluxes with a
notable hydrolapse on area soundings, expect that some visibility
reductions will occur through the mid-morning. Crossover
temperatures will probably be met mainly near and south of i-80
where stunted olr due to incoming mid-level stratus will be
limited. Can't rule out some patches of dense fog into sunrise
where skies can remain clear.

We're also watching a subtle mid-level wave (most prominent around
700 mb) pushing out of southeast iowa early this morning. A
pocket of associated modest warm advection is forecast to drift
out of west-central iowa after 4 am, and rap forecast soundings
immediately south of ford county show the 800-700 mb layer within
a whisper of saturation as a result. Lapse rates are certainly not
steep over a deep layer above this subtle ascent, but thin layers
of lapse rates of 7-8 c km do have me wondering if we'll be able
to pop a few elevated showers and maybe a storm from near and
south of a pontiac to valparaiso line. Lower probability of
occurrence, but have added some 20% pops here through daybreak to
account for this potential.

With the moist airmass in place down low, we'll destabilize quickly
this afternoon with heating. That said, notable drying and warming
in the 500-700 mb layer (a manifestation of subsidence overhead)
look to cap us off (mostly) to surface-based convection. That said,
enhanced surface convergence near a weak surface low and ahead of
the aforementioned cold front may help a few parcels complete the
journey to their lfcs during peak heating. Think the potential for
electrification is on the low side today with the warm air aloft and
poor lapse rates, so we'll indicate 20-30% precip chances but cap
thunder wording just to isolated. The most over-achieving of cells
might be able to produce some gusty winds to 50 mph given the well-
mixed boundary layer today. There might be another shot at some very
patchy fog tonight Tuesday morning, but will leave this mention out
of the gridded forecast for now given very low confidence.

Very late Monday night we'll be turning our attention off to our
northwest as a robust shortwave--readily apparent this morning on
all moisture-channel bands crossing into idaho--dips into the area.

The associated low-level mass response will result in increasing
warm advection on the nose of a burgeoning low-level jet, but
exactly where this occurs remains a bit in question but will have a
great deal of bearing on where a potential MCS initiates and
subsequently tracks. This evening's ECMWF came in a bit farther
southwest, the GFS remains a southern outlier, and the NAM and cmc
are both slightly farther north. The attendant warm advection will
intercept a very steep mid-level lapse rate plume, resulting in
likely robust convective development. Best guess at this point is
ci occurring across north-central to north-west iowa with
activity tracking southeast from there. This would take the brunt
of wind-related impacts from this system mostly south and west of
our cwa, but any northeastward shift in the LLJ would change
this. A potential for wind damage certainly exists, most notably
south and west of a roughly rockford to gibson line. The current
day 2 SPC outlook conveys a reasonable demarcation of the location
of the greatest severe threat based on this evening's multi-model
consensus. We'll obviously keep close tabs on this portion of the
forecast as a reservoir of very high instability will be
available for convective processing into Tuesday afternoon. Most
likely time for any impacts from this system look to be from
daybreak Tuesday into early Tuesday afternoon.

Carlaw

Long term
248 am cdt
Tuesday night through Sunday...

depending on the mesoscale evolution that takes place on Tuesday
afternoon with any MCS activity, we may have to monitor for a
potential for additional convective development into Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Some guidance indicates an
approaching jet streak and attendant ageostrophic mass response in
the low-levels (tied to the thermally indirect transverse portion
of the ageostrophic jet circulation) with another LLJ possibly
driving renewed convection near and atop and remnant outflow
boundary (ies). Should something like this take place, a threat
for training convection could develop given the anticipated mid
and upper-level flow orientation. Pops will be capped at 30-40%
through Wednesday due to low confidence nature of this portion of
the forecast.

At this time, Thursday and into the weekend is looking rather
pleasant and dry with refreshing temperatures and low humidity as
dewpoints drop back into the 50s. Some low shower and storm
chances will spread back east across the region towards the very
end of this forecast (Sunday and into Monday) as high pressure
builds off to our east.

Carlaw

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

quiet and dry conditions expected this morning, withVFR ceilings
in place. Continue to monitor shower thunderstorm development
later this afternoon, and latest trends would suggest that this
development could be slightly further to the north near the
terminals. Have started to trend towards a few hour window this
afternoon, with scattered storms around the terminals but will
need to monitor later trends for possible more prevailing
conditions.VFR ceilings and dry conditions expected tonight, but
with thunderstorm chances increasing across the region by early
Tuesday morning. At this time, the track of this next complex of
storms looks to be south of the terminals. However, will continue
to monitor later trends. Varying winds expected through the
period, though remaining on the lighter side.

Rodriguez

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi39 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 75°F 74°F
45177 16 mi129 min 75°F
CNII2 16 mi24 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 78°F 69°F
JAKI2 16 mi129 min Calm G 1 77°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi51 min WNW 1 G 1.9 77°F 1015.7 hPa70°F
OKSI2 17 mi129 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 76°F
FSTI2 19 mi129 min E 2.9 74°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 20 mi29 min Calm G 0 74°F 1016.9 hPa
45170 21 mi29 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 73°F 75°F70°F
45174 24 mi39 min N 3.9 G 5.8 74°F1014.9 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 24 mi39 min WSW 2.9 G 2.9 74°F 69°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 37 mi29 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 74°F 75°F1 ft1016.3 hPa68°F
45186 41 mi49 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 74°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 45 mi69 min Calm G 1.9 72°F 1017.3 hPa (+1.4)
45187 48 mi29 min N 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 72°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN20 mi2.4 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F69°F100%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGYY

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12SE6SE7S12S12SW10W8W8--W8W7W6W4SW3CalmCalmCalm----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS4S5S6CalmE12S4S7S8SW5S8SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S7SW15
G30
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2 days ago--S7S6S4S8S9S5S5S5S4SW7SW7W5CalmCalmSW4CalmCalm--SW7S6S5S5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.