Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Eastham, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 8:20PM Monday June 21, 2021 3:37 AM EDT (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:52PMMoonset 2:32AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 127 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed and Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu through Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 127 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will lift north of the waters tonight. A cold front will approach southern new england Monday and is expected to cross the waters Tuesday, as tropical storm claudette passes well offshore. High pressure will build east from the ohio valley Wednesday through Friday. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Eastham, MA
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location: 41.92, -70.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 210730 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 330 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Any isolated showers or storms that develop during the evening diminish. Stratus and patchy fog expected across the south coast tonight. Hot and very humid conditions arrive Monday which will be followed by showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. The heat and humidity break late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with much more seasonable and less humid weather Wednesday. Warmer and more humid conditions return Friday and the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/. 100 AM Update .

Forecast remains on track. Made slight adjustments to fall in line with observed trends. Urban areas have stayed even warmer than expected this far into the evening with BOS and HFD at 77 and 73 degrees respectively. Visibilities have fallen at the Islands to 6 miles while Newport RI has fallen to 8 miles. Should see visibilities continue to fall as fog develops along the South Coast, Cape, and Islands as the night progresses. Still not confident that we'll see widespread visibilities of <1/4 mile for 3 hours, so will be holding off on a dense fog advisory for now.

Highlights

* Any isolated showers/storms across western MA/CT diminishing during the evening.

* Dry and quiet weather with stratus and fog spreading into the south coast.

Ridge axis builds over southern New England this evening and shifts into northern New England late tonight. A shortwave lifts across the central Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes by late tonight. At the surface a warm front lifts into northern New England, while southern New England remains within the warm sector.

Main concern in the immediate near term is the isolated thunderstorm potential across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE in place. There is roughly upper 50 to mid 60 degree dew points in place across the region, but other than the heat/very weak PVA we are really lacking a lifting mechanism especially with ridging aloft. Some CAM guidance shows isolated activity developing in response to the heating, so have left slight chances of precipitation across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires into the evening.

Persistent southerly flow will advect mid to upper 60 degree dew point air into the region tonight. Given ocean temperatures are in the low to mid 60s am anticipating stratus/fog to develop and lift in across much of south coast. Not completely out of the question that a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for portions of the south coast in future updates, but confidence is too low at this point in time. Mild with low temperatures in the 60s across the region.

SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Highlights

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible especially later in the day and into the evening. Isolated severe storms are possible especially across western MA and CT. Main threats are damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours.

* Should see any shower/storm activity diminishing in intensity and coverage Monday night. Claudette makes its closest pass by southern New England late tonight.

Persistent cyclonic flow during this period with a trough digging from the western Great Lakes into the eastern Great Lakes. Will see the energy associated with Claudette lift from the Carolinas to well offshore by late Monday night. At the surface a cold front will slide through the region.

Monday and Monday night .

Main concern is the potential for strong to severe storms across western portions of the CWA. Will have southerly flow advecting in moisture from Claudette with it well south of the region. This brings in 1.5 to 2.0 inch PWATs into southern New England and very muggy dew points (upper 60s to low 70s). Given the moisture in place and warm cloud layer depths of 3.5 to 4 km any showers/storms that develop will bring the potential for heavy downpours. Instability is on the order of a 1000-2000 J/kg across western areas with an overlap of 25-35 kts of wind shear. There may be a bit of an offset timing wise between the shear/instability that could hinder storms as they move into our area. The higher shear is available earlier in the day before the instability wanes late. This seems to play out with how the latest CAMs show things developing across NY before diminishing/weakening as it moves into our area late in the day. This makes sense given mid level lapse rates are quite poor, but low level lapse rates are around 7-8 degrees C/km until we lose heating late in the day. Given that the shear vectors become more parallel to the forcing am anticipating a more linear storm mode as shown by the CAMs. There is a window where shear is roughly oblique to the forcing, which would support discrete/linear mode. Thinking that the risk is higher for stronger wind gusts given am anticipating more of a linear mode with a few hundred to 1000 J/kg of DCAPE in place. Agree with the latest SPC outlook highlighting far western areas. Think that if things hold together as they move east storms will remain more elevated in nature especially given the loss of heating. Thinking the 5-10 PM timeframe the previous shift suggested still looks good.

Temperatures top out into the 80s across much of southern New England with some 90 degree readings in the Merrimack and CT River Valley. Expect it to be a bit gusty at times given a 20-40 kt low level jet in place across southern New England. Cold front working its way through Monday night. May actually be dry for much of the region, but given the front moving through and the moisture in place have kept slight chance to chances of precipitation. Think this lull is due to the ridging aloft, but given the environment opted to keep slight chance to chances of precip. Another mild night with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Big Picture .

A broad trough swings over the Northeast USA Tuesday night/Wednesday, then lifts over the Maritimes Wednesday night. High pressure over the Atlantic, and centered south of Nova Scotia, builds west over New England Thursday and Friday. A trough from Canada digs over the Midwest over the weekend.

With passage of the upper trough Wednesday, expect lower than average heights over Srn New England for that day. But as the trough lifts north and the offshore ridge builds west, expect height to quickly climb to above normal levels, with values around 588 Dm and possibly 590 Dm. So temperatures should show an overall warming trend through the week with the warmest days next weekend.

Model mass fields are fairly similar through the week, showing differences mostly over the Midwest during the weekend. Greatest uncertainty is with the projected clouds and southerly flow on Friday. Confidence is moderate-high through the period.

Details .

Tuesday night .

Cold front moves offshore early, but right entrance region of upper jet remains in place over Srn New England through the first half of the night. This will promote lift even after the front has presumably passes. Expect a lingering chance of showers through midnight, mainly over the South Coast and Islands and possibly parts of SE Mass/RI. Skies then clear overnight. Drier air rolls in through the period with dew points falling into the 40s after midnight. Based on this and current temps upstream, expect min temps in the upper 40s and 50s, possible mid 40s on the East Slope.

Wednesday through Friday .

High pressure builds over the region Wednesday. RH Cross-sections show a small layer of moisture between 700-mb and 850-mb. This suggests scattered mid-level clouds but with dry air above and below. Mixed layer is forecast to reach 800-mb, where temps will be 3C. This supports sfc max temps roughly in the mid 70s. Signs of a sea breeze east of Mass in the GFS data, but strictly westerlies in the ECMWF.

High pressure moves offshore Thursday. This will maintain subsidence and dry weather. But also expect a south-southeast flow behind the high feeding into Southern New England. Mixing inland should reach between 850-mb and 800-mb, tapping temps that will support mid 70s to low 80s.

Lingering jet entrance region aloft and southern stream low along the Carolinas will generate clouds along/off the USA East Coast. Building upper ridge over the West Atlantic will bring a south flow aloft that will draw the clouds and possibly a few showers north into Srn New England during Friday. Airmass temps remain about the same, so expect similar high temps to Thursday.

Saturday-Sunday .

Upper trough from Canada dives to the Great Lakes, maintaining a southwest upper flow that remains mostly to our west. A cold front settles into this flow and appears to stall north and west of New England. Enough moisture for partly cloudy skies and possibly a few showers/thunder each day.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z . High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

VFR conditions persist at the majority of terminals. IFR/VLIFR ceilings and visibilities develop at The Cape/Islands terminals and possibly PVD as fog and low-stratus overspread the south coast.

Monday . High confidence.

Visibilities should improve at PVD/Cape terminals, but IFR/LIFR ceilings expected to persist through the day. Fog may linger for the Islands for much of the day. Elsewhere VFR. Southerly winds at 10-15 kts and gusts of 20-25 kt.

Monday night . Moderate confidence.

Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms after 00Z. Have not included VCSH/VCTS in latest TAF package as details are still vague with respect to timing and coverage of showers/storms. Nonetheless expecting IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibilities to develop after sunset beginning at The Cape/Islands and spreading across the interior. This will be a product of fog/low stratus. BAF/BDL/ORH/BED may see ceilings stay in the MVFR category.

KBOS TAF . Moderate confidence in TAF. Some uncertainty between MVFR/IFR ceilings after 00Z Tuesday.

KBDL TAF . High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Clearing skies.

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy BR.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Small Craft Advisory hoisted for building seas on Monday into Tuesday across the southern outer waters. May need to be expanded to the eastern and southern RI nearshore waters in future updates.

Tonight . High confidence.

Winds out of the SW to S at 10 to 15 kts. Wave heights between 2-4 feet. Stratus/fog moving across the southern and eastern waters. Fog between 1/2 to 3 NM along the south coast and 3 to 5 NM across the eastern waters.

Monday through Monday night.

Southerly winds at 10-20 kts on Monday gusts of 20-25 kts. Briefly shifting to the SE/SW late Monday night at 10-15 kts. Waves building to 4-6 ft across the outer waters and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Stratus/fog diminishing on Monday and redeveloping Monday night. Lowest visibilities between 1/4 to 3 NM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251-254. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/BL NEAR TERM . RM SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/RM MARINE . WTB/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 17 mi41 min 65°F1 ft
CHTM3 17 mi67 min SW 5.1 G 9.9 68°F 66°F1009.3 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 32 mi37 min 7.8 G 9.7
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 35 mi112 min SSE 1.9 71°F 1010 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 44 mi37 min S 3.9 G 5.8 62°F1008.4 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 44 mi67 min 68°F 68°F1009.3 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 44 mi67 min SW 5.1 G 7 66°F 71°F1009.7 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA11 mi41 minS 810.00 miFair66°F65°F96%1008.8 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA15 mi45 minVar 35.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F93%1009.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA21 mi41 minSSW 54.00 miFog/Mist68°F68°F100%1008.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVC

Wind History from PVC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Wellfleet, Massachusetts
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Wellfleet
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Mon -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:57 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:50 AM EDT     10.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:12 PM EDT     11.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.92.50.6-0.10.82.95.47.99.810.39.57.85.63.31.30.20.72.75.48.210.611.811.49.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Lighthouse
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:38 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:48 AM EDT     7.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:55 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:10 PM EDT     8.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.41.50.2012.64.46.27.57.87.15.73.92.10.60.10.82.54.56.58.298.67.3

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