Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Windsor Locks, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 1:02 AM EDT (05:02 UTC) Moonrise 10:53PMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 924 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Chance of showers and tstms late.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 924 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure across the area waters will shift east tonight. A warm front will move north of the area on Wednesday. A cold front will then approach the waters late Wednesday night and slowly move through the area Thursday into Friday, followed by high pressure into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Windsor Locks, CT
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location: 41.92, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 210142
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
942 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over southern new england moves offshore tonight
providing seasonable dry weather. A warm front moves across the
region Wednesday providing scattered showers and thunderstorms along
with increasing heat and humidity. A cold front Thursday will bring
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front
moves offshore Friday with dry weather to follow into the weekend
with mild days and cool nights along with comfortable humidity.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Satellite imagery shows clouds in western ny and pa. Northeast
radar mosaic shows showers thunder moving into western pa and
approaching the i-79 corridor. Movement of the clouds and
showers would bring them into the ct valley at about 10-12z 6-8
am, assuming that they hold together through that time. There
are also a couple of isolated showers farther east in pa, but
they are moving in to more stable air and should diminish.

9 pm observations show dew points in the low to mid 60s. No
expectation that they will get any lower than that overnight.

Hourly observed temperatures were 3-4f lower than forecast, but
dew points suggest the min temperature forecast remains
reasonable and so no changes planned. Extrapolation of observed
showers is a couple of hours slower than the forecast, but
within the margin of uncertainty. Low risk for some elevated
convection toward sunrise along the south coast of ma ri and
over western ma ct as warm front aloft surges northeastward.

So no changes in timing for this update, but the potential for
a slower onset is noted.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Wednesday ...

very complex forecast especially afternoon convection and severity.

Warm front lifts northward into the region Wed morning. Some of the
guidance suggest an active warm front with lots of showers t-storms.

If this verifies lots of cloud debris would linger into the
afternoon and could suppress afternoon convection. In addition lots
of morning convection could delay warm frontal passage and thus
diminish risk of strong afternoon storms.

Conversely some of the guidance does not have much if any warm
frontal precip during the morning followed by warm sector
overspreading southern new england with 12z href and ec offering up
to 2500 j kg of sb cape. Thus robust warm sector combined with up to
30 kt of deep layer shear. These high CAPE and modest shear profiles
combined with forcing for ascent from short wave trough moving from
ny to vt nh would support a low to moderate risk of strong to severe
storms. However this convective forecast will hinge on warm frontal
morning convection and how quickly warm sector can overspread
ma ri ct. Some morning warm frontal convection could enhance diurnal
storms with leftover boundaries along with differential heating from
leftover cloud debris. So overall lots of uncertainty regarding
severe potential tomorrow. Hopefully 00z runs show a trend.

Otherwise gradually becoming more humid tomorrow especially if warm
front lifts north of the area.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* hot and humid Thu with a risk for a few showers t-storms near and
south of the pike, shifting to the south coast Thu night
* cooler and less humid fri
* pleasantly warm days and cool nights this weekend into early next
week
details...

Thursday into Thursday night...

another robust mid level shortwave will be rotating across the great
lakes with downstream SW flow aloft across new eng. Cold front moves
into the interior Thu but slows and eventually gets hung up near the
south coast Thu evening. Models show some drier air aloft moving
into sne Thu morning before moisture gradually deepens later Thu thu
evening, especially south of the pike. It will be a hot and humid
day with partly to mostly sunny skies. 925 mb temps 22-24c support
highs around 90, except cooler near the south coast and higher
terrain in ma. Dewpoints lower 70s in the coastal plain but falling
through the 60s interior behind the front.

Marginal instability develops Thu with forecast capes around 1000
j kg, focused south of the pike. Models are not very bullish on
convective precip, likely due to presence of mid level dry air which
may limit convective activity during the day. Best chance for a few
afternoon t-storms will likely be near and south of the pike ahead
of the front, and there is enough deep layer shear for an isolated
strong to severe storm. While instability diminishes after dark,
better chance for showers and a few t-storms may be Thu night along
the south coast as deeper moisture with pwat plume nearing 2 inches
moves up along the south coast ahead of a shortwave and along the
stalled frontal boundary which eventually pushes south and offshore
by late Thu night.

Friday...

there is some uncertainty regarding how quickly clearing occurs near
the south coast. It is possible clouds may linger into Fri near the
south coast with a risk of a few showers. Otherwise, more sunshine
likely north of the pike. Cooler post frontal airmass will yield
highs mainly mid 70s to around 80 with low humidity.

Saturday through Tuesday...

ecmwf appears to be an outlier with development of closed low over
new eng this weekend into early next week and not really supported
by majority of its ensemble members. Trend is for mid level ridging
to develop across the NE late in the weekend into early next week,
with shower threat possibly increasing by Tue depending on timing of
next shortwave. Coolest days likely Sun Mon with high pres in the
maritimes with NE flow and will have to watch for some lower clouds
during this time period. Overall, looking at highs mostly in the 70s
and lows in the 50s this weekend into early next week, with highs in
the 60s possible along the east coast Sun mon.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight ... VFR, dry weather and light s-se winds near shore
with light and variable wind inland.VFR-MVFR toward daybreak
along with the risk of isolated shower t-storm western ct ma
after 5 am.

Wednesday ...

vfr-MVFR in scattered showers t-storms throughout the day. S-se
winds becoming s-sw late. A few strong storms possible with
gusty winds, frequent lightning and torrential downpours.

Greatest risk western ct into NW ma.

Wed night ...

MVFR-vfr with chance of showers t-storms especially early in the
evening. S-sw winds increasing up to 20-25 kt over CAPE cod and
islands.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF thru tonight. Then
uncertainty Wed on timing and areal coverage of
showers t-storms along with uncertainty on wind shift from SE to
sw, likely occurring late in the day wed.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF thru this evening. Then
uncertainty on timing and areal coverage of showers t-storms
late tonight into wed.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ... Moderate confidence
Thursday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra.

Friday through Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Tonight ... Tranquil weather with 1020 mb high over pa drifting
eastward. Dry weather and good vsby expected along with
tranquil seas.

Wednesday ... Warm front lifts into the waters with scattered showers
and t-storms. Low prob for a few strong storms.

Wednesday night ... Warm front lifts north into nh me waters with
evening scattered showers t-storms possible. Patchy fog
possible.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Friday through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kjc nocera
near term... Wtb kjc nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Kjc
aviation... Wtb kjc nocera
marine... Wtb kjc nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi62 min SW 4.1 G 4.1 78°F 78°F1016.8 hPa (+0.0)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi62 min Calm G 0 73°F 71°F1017.5 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT3 mi4.2 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F62°F67%1016.5 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT13 mi3.2 hrsS 410.00 miFair76°F66°F74%1017.1 hPa
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi3.2 hrsS 310.00 miFair68°F61°F78%1017.2 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi2.1 hrsNE 310.00 miA Few Clouds66°F63°F93%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDL

Wind History from BDL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW5W5W4CalmW4W6W7NW5N63N5CalmNW8
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1 day agoS3S7S6SW5S6S7S8S7S7S8S7S8S10SW11W9NW12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW4CalmCalmSE4S7SW9SW7S9S11S7SW6SW4SW4S7SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut
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Hartford
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:15 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.60.50.71.31.71.91.81.71.41.10.90.70.60.50.61.11.722.11.91.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:55 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:21 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:07 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.50.81.31.8221.81.51.210.80.60.50.71.21.82.12.22.11.81.51.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.