Thursday, February25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith River, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:58PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 11:15 PM PST (07:15 UTC) Moonrise 3:08PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 902 Pm Pst Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am pst Thursday...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..N wind 15 to 25 kt...easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..NW wind 5 to 15 kt...veering to N 15 to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 kt... Backing to nw in the late morning and early afternoon, then... Rising to 10 to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of rain.
Thu night..N wind 10 to 20 kt...easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 9 to 10 ft at 13 seconds...building to 13 to 14 ft at 13 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 14 to 17 ft. Slight chance of showers through the day.
Fri night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 11 to 14 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat..N wind 10 to 15 kt northern portion and N 5 to 15 kt brookings southward. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. NW swell 10 to 13 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 9 to 11 ft.
Sun..N wind 10 kt...backing to nw in the evening, then... Veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning... Becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 9 ft...subsiding to 7 ft and nw 3 ft.
Mon..NE wind 10 kt...backing to n. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 ft...building to 9 ft and nw 3 ft.
PZZ300 902 Pm Pst Wed Feb 24 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..North winds and seas will gradually diminish tonight as the thermal trough weakens. A break in the weather is expected Thursday. Winds Thursday night remain moderate, but seas will quickly build late Thursday evening as heavy long period northwest swell builds into the waters, peaking Friday morning. Seas will then slowly subside through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith River, CA
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location: 41.93, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 250512 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 912 PM PST Wed Feb 24 2021

UPDATE. Satellite images are showing the next front approaching our region, with the leading cloud deck around 60 miles offshore from Coos Bay at this time. This front still looks on track to bring rain to the central Oregon coast a little before sunrise. Clearing ahead of the front will allow temperatures to drop to near freezing in the inland west side valleys, with snow levels starting around 2000 feet early in the morning, more so in eastern Douglas county and south of the Umpqua Divide. However, precipitation amounts will be light during this time frame and with warm road temperatures at this elevation any snow that falls will melt quickly. Current forecast with the timing and all looks on track and will not update this evening. Sven

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 400 PM PST Wed Feb 24 2021/

Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION . Sunny skies prevail across the forecast area this afternoon under high pressure. Even with mostly sunny skies, afternoon temperatures will still be below normal (especially for areas east of the Cascades) for most areas because of the cold air mass in place. The air mass will moderate and warm over the next 24 hours, but clouds will increase starting tomorrow as a frontal boundary pushes from north to south towards the forecast area. Energy will ride along this frontal boundary through Saturday morning, bringing rain and mountain snow mainly to areas from the Umpqua Divide northward. More specifically, we expect precipitation to be focused north of a line from about Gold Beach to Glendale to Butte Falls. Snow amounts through Saturday morning will be a foot+ in the Willamette Pass area, about 10 inches at Diamond Lake, and about 5 inches at Lake of the Woods. Several inches are possible at Chemult along Highway 97 and a few inches are expected at Mount Ashland. Latest data suggests snow levels will bottom out around 2000-2500 feet between Friday morning and Saturday morning. The highest chance for impacts to lower passes (Canyon Mtn Pass on I-5 for instance) is Saturday morning because all indications are that more precipitation will fall Saturday morning. That said, we're talking about 0.1 to 0.2 inches of precipitation so a few inches of snow at most. Additionally, impacts to these lower roadways will likely be confined to nighttime and morning hours when the February sun isn't influencing the roadways.

Even though we're not expecting heavy precipitation with this front, we do expect hefty winds in the northern and eastern sections of the forecast area. Exposed high terrain areas from the Cascades eastward will be windy from Thursday through Saturday morning. Latest model data continues to show a 60kt+ midlevel jet moving over Lake County Friday afternoon, and we've issued a High Wind Watch for the potential for 60mph winds there, generally from Christmas Valley eastward. Elsewhere east of the Cascades, the typical wind prone areas will see 45mph+ wind gusts (Summer Lake is in the High Wind Watch). Additionally, blowing dust and low visibility may result from these gusty winds. Keene

Long Term . Saturday through Wednesday . Precipitation will taper off Saturday as the trough moves to the east and the upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific slowly edges inland. The ridge's arrival should push a weak warm front through the region, which could keep some light precipitation in the area Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but amounts would be light if measurable at all.

For the rest of the forecast term, confidence is lacking, as model and ensemble solutions diverge into two basic patterns. The first scenario suggests that a large trough will dig south towards the western US, but will break off into a closed low before making it onshore. The trough then slides farther south and takes up station off of southern California, keeping our region dry under high pressure through the remainder of the term. The other scenario is one where the trough remains intact within the prevailing westerlies, bringing a chance for light to moderate precipitation to the Pacific Northwest Sunday night into Monday before quickly departing into the Great Basin. The GEFS members and the deterministic GFS heavily lean towards the first solution, while the ECMWF and its ensembles heavily favor the second. While neither scenario is favored, there has been a slight movement overall towards a drier forecast. Thus, spent some time today bringing precipitation chances in the extended period down, but still kept at least a slight chance in place for early next week to account for the possibility of the wetter pattern.

Overall the long term forecast should be rather quiet, and although there is a possibility for precipitation early in the week, temperatures should trend near or slightly above normal for early March. -BPN

AVIATION . For the 25/00Z TAF Cycle . At the coast and just offshore. VFR conditions will continue into tonight. A front will bring lowering ceilings late tonight. The TAF at North Bend shows MVFR conditions starting 14z tomorrow morning, but there's a chance it could develop an hour or two earlier. There's a good chance ceilings could lower to IFR for a few hours around 18z tomorrow and this has been reflected in the North Bend TAF.

Inland westside. VFR ceilings are expected through tonight. Ceilings will lower to MVFR late tomorrow morning north of the Umpqua Divide, including Roseburg. The TAF at Roseburg shows MVFR ceilings around 18z, but there's a chance the higher terrain could be partly obscured prior to then. South of the Umpqua Divide VFR ceilings are expected through the TAF period.

East of the Cascades and northern California, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Gusty winds could be a concern into early this evening, then again tomorrow afternoon. However, strong winds are not expected at this time. -Petrucelli

MARINE . Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday 24 Feb 2021 . Offshore high pressure and a thermal trough near the coast will support gusty north winds and steep seas south of Cape Blanco. Steep seas will also affect the northern waters through tonight due to moderate northwest swell. Winds will weaken Thursday as a weak front moves through, then strengthen again Friday into Saturday. Seas will quickly build late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as heavy long period northwest swell builds into the waters. Guidance has backed off on the swell height and are now showing swells peaking out between 17 and 19 feet 17 at Friday morning. Despite the decrease in swell height, seas are still expected to be hazardous and the Hazardous Seas Watch has been upgraded to a Hazardous seas Warning from 10 pm pst Thursday until 4 pm pst Friday. However seas could be Hazardous to Small Craft as early as 10 am pst Thursday and additional refinements will likely need to be made once the current small craft advisory ends. The reason for this is to keep the marine headlines simple and thus less confusing. For details on the all the marine hazards, please see MWWMFR.

High surf will be another concern during this time period. Current projections show surf between 20 and 25 feet late Thursday night through Friday afternoon and a High Surf Advisory has also been issued. Please see CFWMFR for more details.

Northwest swell will gradually diminish Friday evening through Saturday night. Meanwhile another front will move into the waters Friday evening followed by increasing northwest winds Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds will shift northerly Saturday, but will remain moderate south of Cape Blanco Saturday afternoon as strong offshore high pressure sets up along with a developing thermal trough along the southern Oregon coast. North winds will gradually lower Saturday night. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Friday for ORZ021-022. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Saturday for ORZ030-031. High Wind Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for ORZ030-031.

CA . Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Saturday for CAZ085. High Wind Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for CAZ085.

Pacific Coastal Waters . High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

SBN/SBN/SBN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 10 mi36 min N 5.8 G 7.8 47°F1030.8 hPa
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 13 mi64 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 49°F1030.3 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 58 mi58 min NW 12 G 15 42°F 48°F1031.8 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA10 mi20 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist40°F39°F97%1030.3 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR11 mi20 minNE 310.00 miFair42°F34°F73%1030.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCEC

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE4N8NE5N5N7NW7NW8N8NW9N9N4N4N6N6N7N11N12
G21

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Thu -- 03:58 AM PST     3.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:57 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:48 AM PST     7.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:17 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:52 PM PST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:02 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:25 PM PST     6.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.54.843.43.13.44.25.36.47.27.46.95.74.12.30.7-0.3-0.6-0.11.12.64.25.46

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:53 AM PST     3.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:57 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:46 AM PST     7.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:18 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:48 PM PST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:02 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:23 PM PST     6.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.44.73.93.33.13.54.35.46.47.27.46.95.742.20.7-0.3-0.6-01.22.74.35.56.1

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