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Marine Weather and Tides Rhinecliff, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:10AM

Sunset 4:26PM

Monday December 9, 2019 3:29 AM EST (08:29 UTC)

Moonrise 4:04PM

Moonset 5:15AM

Illumination 93%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff, NY

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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 090600 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 100 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cloudy, breezy and milder conditions are expected early this morning, with periods of rain arriving during the day. Mild and rainy conditions will continue tonight into Tuesday morning, with colder temperatures returning later in the day. Some snow is expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly for areas south of Albany.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 100 AM EST . MRMS imagery is starting to show some very light precip over the Adirondacks. Not sure yet if this precip is actually reaching the ground or not, but it looks very light from radar. NYS Mesonet shows temps close to freezing, and model soundings would suggest any precip could be either sleet, freezing rain or plain rain for the next few hours, with primarily freezing rain or rain after 5 AM. 3km HRRR suggests some light precip may continue to develop across this area, as the southerly breeze upslopes the high terrain. Will continue Winter Weather Advisory for the western and southern Adirondacks, but expected sleet and ice amounts are just a trace and impacts should be very minimal (if any at all).

A few sprinkles are also lifting northward towards Litchfield County from the NYC areas. Also unclear if this very light precip is actually reaching the ground but very light rain showers (perhaps freezing on some surfaces at are below freezing) are possible across southern Litchfield County over the next few hours.

Elsewhere, IR satellite imagery just shows cloudy skies with surface obs showing southerly winds are starting to pick up in favored north-south valleys. KALB has been gusting up to 35 mph at times, although most locations are much lower. Through the remainder of the overnight, southerly winds will continue, allowing temps to remain steady or slowly rise. Temps vary depending on if the wind has picked up or not, with readings currently in the mid 20s to upper 30s. Most areas outside some sheltered areas within the Adirondacks look to be above freezing by sunrise Monday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Tomorrow . Any spotty freezing rain or drizzle should transition to plain rain over the southern and eastern Adirondacks,as temps rise above freezing. The temps should rise east of the southern Greens, but if they do not, then an SPS for spotty freezing rain or a WSW maybe needed. We leaned toward a superblend and warmer temps with the strengthening south to southwest flow.

The low-level jet increases with the latest 12Z GEFS indicating +v-wind anomalies /southerlies/ of 1 to 3 STD DEVs above normal with PWATS increasing to +1 to +3 STD DEVs above normal. The sfc wave will be lifting northeast for periods of rain. It should be noted the H850 moisture flux anomalies will be in the +3 to +4 STD DEVs above normal, so some moderate bursts of rain are likely especially south and east of the Capital District. The southwest flow aloft will tend to shunt the pcpn over the Capital Region due to shadowing off the Catskills. Temps will be rising to the 40s with some spotty 50s over the mid Hudson Valley and perhaps near Bennington, VT. The snowpack will begin to ripen and absorb the initial surge of rainfall.

Monday night . Temps continue to rise and steady in the lower 40s to lower 50s. The surface dew points are likely to rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s, which means the combination of temperatures and dew points could lead to enhanced snow melt, along with the locally moderate to heavy rainfall and patchy fog. Some of the guidance shows a lull in the pcpn after 06Z with the wave moving east of New England. The cold front will be approaching from western and northern NY by daybreak on Tuesday.

Tuesday . The cold front slides across the region with one more surge of rain or showers. There is a strong thermal gradient for a transition to some snow over the southern Adirondacks in the afternoon. Max temps will be in the late morning and early pm, but then temps will fall due to the strong cold advection. Max temps will be in the 40s to mid 50s and then fall in the pm. Some light snow accums are possible in the southern Adirondacks. Total QPF before night fall may be in the about half an inch to local amounts of 2.0 inches. See the hydro section for the super specific details.

Tue night . The cold front slows and acts like an ana front with moisture pooling northward behind the sfc front and wind shifts axis. Temps will be dropping quickly in the 20s to lower 30s with teens in the southern Adirondacks. The low and mid level FGEN increases with a weak wave ejecting northeast from the Delmarva. Periods of light to moderate snow may break out from the eastern Catskills/Capital Region and the Berkshires south. We may need advisories for the southern Taconics/Berkshires/NW CT and it could be a sloppy morning commute from the Tri Cities south and east. Lows in the teens and 20s with wet snow accums of 1 to 3" (highest totals in NW CT and the southern Taconics/ prior to daybreak from ALY south and east. See the long term for more details.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Intrusion of arctic air with below normal temperatures will dominate the beginning of the long term forecast, followed by some moderation in temps, along with the next prospects for precipitation associated with a possible coastal storm by next weekend.

A wave of low pressure developing along a frontal boundary to our south and east should allow precipitation to linger across southeast areas Wednesday morning. Forecast thermal profiles suggest P-type should be snow. The question is how much precipitation occurs from mid level forcing and moisture, as some southern stream energy translates northeastward. Latest 12Z/08 deterministic and ensemble model guidance suggests the possibility of at least a few additional inches of snow across portions of the mid Hudson Valley northeast into NW CT, the southern Berkshires, and southern Taconics, although can not rule out precipitation lingering farther north in the morning, which could allow some snow closer to the Capital Region of NY into the northern Berkshires. Stratiform precipitation should taper off by afternoon, however arctic front and main upper level trough passage should promote snow showers and perhaps embedded squalls for the afternoon/evening hours, especially for the Mohawk Valley northward. High temps mainly in the mid 20s to mid 30s, with temperatures possibly falling during the afternoon hours.

Snow showers should transition to more of a lake effect/enhanced event Wednesday night through Thursday morning, initially favoring the southwest Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, before shifting southward and becoming more multi-banded during Thursday morning, with areal coverage likely decreasing in the afternoon as a subsidence inversion lowers with high pressure building closer. Otherwise, quite blustery with Wed night lows in the single digits and teens, and highs Thursday mainly in the teens and 20s, although could approach the lower 30s in the mid Hudson Valley. Wind chills look to drop to zero to 10 below across northern areas, and zero to 10 above elsewhere Wednesday night.

High pressure should bring fair but cold conditions for Thursday night into Friday night, with lows Thursday night dropping into the single digits above and below zero across northern areas, and teens elsewhere, with some potential for pockets of temps dipping to -10 F or lower across the southern Adirondacks, depending on cloud cover and wind. Highs Friday mid 20s to lower 30s.

Lots of uncertainty regarding next possible storm system for late Friday night into next Sunday, with most likely period of precipitation next Saturday. Siding closer to 12Z/EC for onset timing based on past performance. Thermal profiles look relatively warm aloft, so this could be a rain/ice (rain/freezing rain) situation, depending on how much shallow low level cold air remains across the region. Will have to watch trends through the week. Lows Friday night and Saturday night in the mid 20s to low 30s, although may be warmer depending on ultimate storm track, with high temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Clouds will thicken and lower across the region overnight into Monday morning as a weak area of low pressure moves of the eastern seaboard and a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes Region. Temperatures will rise into the 40s Monday with rain developing and overspreading the area during the morning hours. The rain will continue through the TAF period; 06Z/Tuesday. Conditions will initially lower to MVFR with IFR soon to follow then persisting. It will foggy as the warmer air moves over the snowpack.

Southerly flow through the TAF period. It will be enhanced at KALB with breezy and gusty conditions through the overnight into early Monday morning with light flow at the other TAF sites. The flow will lighten up for a period during the day Monday and is expected to pick up late in the day into the evening shifting to the south-southwest.

Have maintained low level wind shear in TAFs for the afternoon and evening hours as a strong low level jet will moves across the region.

Outlook .

Monday Night: High Operational Impact Breezy Definite RA. FG. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact Likely SHRA. SHSN . SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHSN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHSN. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. Temperatures will remain below normal tonight into early tomorrow, so little melting and/or runoff is expected on the weekend. This will allow the snow pack to be maintained and unripened. Temperatures will likely rise to above normal values tomorrow and continue into Tuesday, with periods of rain likely. There is increasing confidence that temperatures and dewpoints will rise into the mid 30s to lower to mid 40s late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, especially along and south of the Mohawk Valley to southern VT. Those temperatures and dew points along with locally heavy rain could enhance snow melt.

There is uncertainty with the amount and placement of the heaviest rain, however our current forecast is for about a half an inch to about two inches in the HSA with the highest totals in the southeast extreme over the Housatonic Basin in NW CT, the southern Greens, and also in the west/southwest Adirondacks.

MMEFS guidance varies with the NAEFS and GEFS suggesting some rivers reach action stage and perhaps and isolated stem nicking minor flood stage and the SREF suggesting some rivers reaching minor flood stage. Uncertainty in the amount of snow melt and where the heaviest rain will fall is why there is such a variety of solutions in the sources of guidance.

The bottom line, none of the NERFC forecasts are projecting flooding at this time. Some ripening and melting of the snowpack and runoff is expected, although widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. Rises on area waterways are likely during this timeframe.

It will turn sharply colder Tuesday into Wednesday and continue through the end of the week, which should put a stop to any melting/runoff, and allow river levels to recede. Light to moderate snow amounts are possible Tue night into Wednesday from the Capital Region south and east in NW CT and the mid Hudson Valley.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NYZ032- 033-042-082. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frugis NEAR TERM . Frugis SHORT TERM . Wasula LONG TERM . SND/KL AVIATION . IAA HYDROLOGY . NAS/Wasula

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
TKPN6	5 mi	60 min	S 8 G 9.9	36°F	34°F		1025.5 hPa	26°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY	6 mi	60 min	ESE 1.9	37°F			1024 hPa	28°F
NPXN6	8 mi	60 min	Calm	30°F			1027 hPa	26°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	66 mi	66 min	NW 1.9 G 4.1	38°F	44°F		1025.4 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound	71 mi	45 min	E 1.9 G 3.9	40°F				38°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY	21 mi	37 min	N 0	9.00 mi	Overcast	31°F	27°F	85%	1024.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY

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