Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Niles, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:40PM Sunday September 27, 2020 2:19 AM CDT (07:19 UTC) Moonrise 5:13PMMoonset 2:13AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202009270915;;421204 Fzus53 Klot 270256 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 956 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 26 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-270915- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 956 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 26 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am cdt Sunday...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds to 30 kt. A few gale gusts possible through midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west in the afternoon. A few gusts to 25 kt late afternoon. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niles, IL
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location: 42, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 270630 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 130 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SHORT TERM. 200 PM CDT

Through Sunday night .

An active upper level jet stream pattern will work its way in from the west and bring to close what has been a largely mild and dry stretch of weather this latter half of September.

In the near term though, summer hangs on in areas that have been relieved of the pesky stratus clouds today. Breezy southwest winds are picking up ahead of deepening low pressure across the plains. Stratus is rapidly eroding outside of the areas where cirrus has limited the ability to do, and where it does erode temperatures have responded quickly (PNT near 80). Clearing of this lower cloud will take the longest across northeast IL. The surface low across the plains will further strengthen tonight, being driven northeastward ahead of the first in a series of upper level troughs. This pattern will maintain our breezy winds tonight and a mild night. Some stratus will again advect toward the area from the southwest. Current guidance indicates along and southeast of I-55 will be favored tonight for these low clouds, though it could still fill in across the metro.

A lead cold front will shift toward the local area Sunday morning into the afternoon. The mid and upper level flow will become oriented parallel to the surface front tonight and the main upper trough will pass into Ontario into early Sunday. This will slow the rain chances and limit the pre-frontal rain. The cold front will cross the area into early/mid afternoon. Do not see much potential for widespread showers or thunder ahead of the front, though there will be some height falls coupled with a bit weaker frontal forcing that may encourage a few showers. Rain chances will steadily move in from the northwest after midday through the remainder of the afternoon. The northwest half of the area/along and NW of I-55 will be the main area affected during the afternoon. It will be warm once again with highs ranging from the lower 70s northwest to around 80 southeast, though northwest areas will likely see temps cool during the afternoon, and areas southeast in stratus may be limited also.

As previously mentioned, the focus for rain will trail the front and be tied to the arriving upper trough and associated mid level thermal gradient, with the frontal circulation aided by a strengthening upper SW-NE oriented upper jet in the evening hours. Thus expect the rain shield to spread across the remainder of the area through the evening and overnight. Expect 0.5" type rainfall totals.

KMD

LONG TERM. 256 PM CDT

Monday through Saturday .

The main weather story during the extended period continues to be the unseasonably chilly conditions likely over the region, especially later in the week as an anomalous upper trough sets up over the Great Lakes.

At the start of the period early Monday we may have some lingering rain from Sunday nights activity, especially across eastern sections of IL and into IN. However, it appear the rain should end across the area prior to midday, with only a small chance for a few isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers. Temperatures will be cooler for Monday, with readings topping out in the mid 60s.

Temperatures look to drop off into the lower 40s Monday night (outside the city) as we loose the cloud cover, but temperatures should rebound back into the lower to mid 60s Tuesday afternoon. Later Tuesday into Tuesday evening warm air advection looks to ramp up thanks to an increasing west-southwesterly low-level wind response associated with the exit region of a 130+ kt northwesterly upper jet nosing into the lower Great Lakes. This should help shift a lower-level thermal ridge eastward across our area Tuesday night into early Wednesday, before another cold front moves across the area on Wednesday. This should result in a warmer night over the area Tuesday night, followed by a decent day Wednesday, with highs possibly nearing 70, especially south.

In the wake of the cold front on Wednesday a much stronger push of chilly air will work in over the area for the later half of the week as a large upper trough digs over the area. This looks to result in breezy conditions, especially on Thursday, with daytime highs in the 50s for Thursday and Friday. There will also be a good chance for showers on Thursday, and lake effect showers may continue into Friday for areas near the lake in northwestern IN as northerly winds set up over the lake. Expect overnight lows outside the city to drop into the 30s in this pattern late in the week.

The chilly weather looks to continue into next weekend as the upper trough continues over the region.

KJB

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

The concerns include: * Gusty southwest winds early this AM with LLWS outside Chicago * Chance for a period of MVFR CIGs this morning * Wind shift to northwest/north-northwest this afternoon with gusts to around 20 kt * Rain developing late afternoon into evening with periods of moderate rain possible/likely * MVFR CIGs possible during the rain, especially during the evening, with IFR possible late Sunday night/early Monday

The strong/gusty southwest winds are finally starting to ease a bit, though are still 25-30 kt at ORD and MDW. Outside of Chicago, gusts in 20-25 kt range and very strong southwest winds aloft will yield LLWS. Winds will shift to west and then northwest with a cold front today. There's concern that direction could get close to due north for a period late afternoon/early evening closer to the lake, including ORD and MDW. In addition, gusts should be up to about 20 kt, possibly higher at GYY being downwind of the lake. Winds should then shift back to west or even southwest in the evening or overnight, especially away from the lake.

Stratus is much less extensive to the south than it was early Saturday morning. As a result, confidence is low in there being any MVFR CIGs this morning, but opted to hold onto SCT012 mention for a bit longer. Rain will develop behind the frontal passage today. Trends suggest that the rain will start a bit later than previous forecasts, although some spotty showers are possible out ahead of the front. Pushed back the onset time about 3 hours in the TAFs. Forecast soundings suggest that the rain could come down at a moderate clip at times, causing MVFR VSBY along with BR. CIGs will start out at VFR but should gradually deteriorate, though timing of deterioration to MVFR is uncertain along with whether CIGs will be prevailing. As the rain gradually lightens up after midnight/early Monday, CIGs could lower to prevailing low MVFR with IFR possible along with MVFR BR.

Castro

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . IL nearshore waters until 4 AM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory . IN nearshore waters until 7 AM Sunday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 9 mi80 min SSW 23 69°F
45174 12 mi20 min SSW 19 G 25 66°F 51°F4 ft1003.8 hPa (+0.0)58°F
OKSI2 12 mi80 min WNW 5.1 G 11 70°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi30 min SSW 29 G 33 69°F 64°F
CNII2 15 mi20 min S 14 G 18 68°F 58°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi50 min S 13 G 19 68°F 1005.3 hPa61°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 25 mi80 min SW 21 G 30
45187 34 mi20 min WSW 14 G 19 63°F 46°F3 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 41 mi140 min SW 19 G 26 75°F 1003 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL5 mi29 minSSW 18 G 2710.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy70°F59°F68%1004.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi28 minSSW 13 G 2410.00 miFair71°F60°F68%1004.2 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL15 mi27 minSSW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F57°F70%1004.8 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi28 minSSW 11 G 1910.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1004.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORD

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS5SW6SW5SW6SW5SW4SW4SW8SW8S11S12
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2 days agoS6SW5S4SW4SW5SW5SW7SW6SW6W9SW7SW8SW11SW9S5SW4S4S4SW3S4S4S3S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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