Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niles, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:44PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 3:36 PM CDT (20:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:55PMMoonset 11:47AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201908220330;;996974 Fzus53 Klot 211958 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 258 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-220330- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 258 Pm Cdt Wed Aug 21 2019
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north 5 to 10 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft late.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 kt. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niles, IL
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location: 42, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 211846
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
146 pm cdt Wed aug 21 2019

Short term
122 pm cdt
through Thursday ...

water vapor pictures a bit more amplified flow across the northern
great lakes courtesy of a closed upper low south of james bay. This
will drive a cold front south into northern illinois this evening.

Upstream to the west there are several convectively altered waves
embedded in the westerly flow, and an MCV present in the radar loop
across iowa.

Spc mesoanalysis depicts and axis of MLCAPE is currently capped
along and ahead of the front that according to the rap plan view may
erode. But there is an axis of deep layer moisture convergence, and
this combined with upper level energy from iowa is enough forcing
for elevated thunderstorms above the capping inversion. Small hail
and heavy downpours would be the more likely hazards given the
elevated nature of the storms. This wave, while not easy to pick
out on satellite, is in an area well depicted by the rap, and this
wave is projected to continue across the northern metro area this
afternoon.

Meanwhile the iowa convection and associated MCV should be able
maintain additional showers and thunderstorms into our western
area this afternoon as they continue to follow the 850-300mb wind
and forward propogating vectors to the northeast. We will need to
watch this axis as well as the mid level flow does increase and
mid level lapse rates are fairly impressive above the elevated
mixed layer here as well, and shear is increasing which may allow
storms to maintain some organization.

For tonight the evolution and coverage is still slightly muddled,
and there is a short gap between the current wave and continued
shortwave energy farther upstream in iowa. This energy will shift
across central il should maintain and axis of showers and some
thunderstorms along and south of i-80, with some activity possibly
hanging back to the northeast across the metro area. Instability
will wane quickly tonight thus thunder coverage should trend
downward.

High pressure behind the cold front and drier dewpoints suggest a
mostly dry and slightly cooler day Thursday, though will hang onto
some lower precip chances near central il close to the front, though
some guidance tries to trigger a shower closer to the upper trough
toward northern il.

Kmd

Long term
146 pm cdt
Friday through Wednesday...

surface high pressure is expected to dominate across the great
lakes region Friday through much of the upcoming weekend. Overall,
this is expected to result in pleasant (early autumn-like) weather
across the area through this period. High temperatures are
expected to be mainly in the 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s.

Winds will primarily be northeasterly off the lake, especially
Friday and Saturday and this may result in a few lake effect
clouds, especially on Friday. However, of more concern is the
increased threat of rip currents at lake michigan beaches Friday
due to building waves up around 4 foot due to the breezy
northeasterly winds over the lake. This may result in the need for
a beach hazard statement for the southern lake michigan beaches.

As the surface high over the great lakes gradually shifts towards
new england later in the weekend and early next week expect the
surface winds to shift southeasterly on Sunday, then southerly on
Monday. These southerly winds will allow a warmer and higher
dewpoint airmass to shift northward back into the area by Monday,
resulting in a return to 80 degree temperatures. Our chances for
showers and thunderstorms will also return to the forecast by
early next week with this increase in warm moist air ahead of
another storm system, which looks to move across the midwest.

Kjb

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

main highlights concerns for the next 24-30 hours:
* shra tsra in the area through mid-late afternoon
* potential for wind shift to north north-northeast 23-00z today
* northeast winds 10-15 kt at ord mdw gyy on Thursday
an area of thunderstorms have formed from northwest illinois to
the rfd area in response to an upper level disturbance.

Uncertainty increases on lightning coverage with this activity
over northeast illinois into northwest indiana by mid afternoon,
but given current radar trends, have maintained vcts mention at
ord, mdw, dpa and gyy. Added a short tempo tsra for rfd and will
need to monitor radar trends for possibly needing short tempos at
the eastern terminals. Shra tsra this evening should focus south
of the terminals, with gyy possibly the closest.

The next concern is the potential for a wind shift to north
north-northeast late this afternoon-early evening behind a cold
front. Confidence has decreased in a sharp wind shift to
northeast, with perhaps a shift to just east of north at 23-00z,
as depicted on mav lav guidance. Speeds will briefly be around 10
kt if the shift occurs. It is possible, however, that winds stay
north-northwesterly and will adjust as needed.

Winds will become light north-northeasterly tonight withVFR
conditions likely through the rest of the period. Northeast winds
will increase by mid morning Thursday, likely staying in the
10-15 kt range the rest of Thursday at ord mdw gyy. Occasional
higher gusts are possible.

Castro

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 9 mi97 min W 7 83°F
45174 12 mi37 min W 7.8 G 12 76°F1 ft1012.9 hPa (-0.7)
OKSI2 12 mi97 min WNW 1.9 G 6 86°F
45177 13 mi157 min 78°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi47 min WSW 14 G 16 83°F 71°F
CNII2 15 mi37 min SW 9.9 G 13 82°F 64°F
JAKI2 20 mi97 min WSW 9.9 G 14 83°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi49 min SW 6 G 12 82°F 1013.7 hPa70°F
45186 25 mi37 min SW 7.8 G 12 76°F 75°F1 ft
45187 34 mi37 min W 9.7 G 14 83°F 74°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 41 mi37 min WSW 5.1 G 8 77°F 1013.5 hPa (-0.7)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi57 min W 6 G 7 80°F 1014.9 hPa
45170 48 mi27 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 77°F1 ft72°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL5 mi46 minWSW 1010.00 miOvercast81°F68°F65%1013.8 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi45 minWSW 11 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F66°F59%1013.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL15 mi44 minWSW 1110.00 miOvercast83°F70°F65%1013.2 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi45 minWSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F69°F67%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORD

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE15
G20
CalmCalmS5S3SE3SW4W5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3SW6SW5W4W6W10W10SW11
G16
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1 day agoNE8E7E7E7E7E6E6E5E4E3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmN3CalmSW4S5CalmW9
G23
E7E4SE3
2 days agoSW7SW9W10W9W7W4SW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN54NE4NE3E6E6E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.