Tuesday, May26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:12PM Tuesday May 26, 2020 11:29 AM CDT (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:27AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 844 Am Cdt Tue May 26 2020 Port Washington Wi To Whitehall Mi South...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Patchy fog. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 5 to 10 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers likely in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ080 Expires:202005262115;;781769 FZUS63 KMKX 261344 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 844 AM CDT Tue May 26 2020 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... Warm and moist air over the relatively cold lake is expected to linger today, and possibly into Thursday night. Dense fog will remain a concern for this period, thus a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the northern two thirds of the lake today. Otherwise, an area of low pressure around 29.8 inches will push northward into Iowa today and linger around the region through the middle of the week. Steady southerly winds as well as periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue today through Thursday night. Then a cold front is expected to push across the region overnight Thursday. This is likely to bring cooler and drier air into the region for Friday into the upcoming weekend. && LMZ080-671-673-675-777-779-872-874-876-878-262115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Beach, MI
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location: 42.03, -87     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 261050 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 650 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

Another day of hot and humid conditions with intermittent chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Storms that manage to form would be able to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Friday. Much cooler and dry conditions are expected for this coming weekend with highs in the 70s and morning lows near 50.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

Stagnant upper pattern persists for another day. Upper ridge continues to be anchored over the Appalacians while a cut-off low stalls over Texas. Models show another embedded shortwave rounding the ridge over the course of the day today. This will spark convection once again; primarily during the heat of the day. As previous forecast stated, models have been over performing with coverage of POPs with the NAM being the pessimistic outlier. While I'm not totally onboard with the NAM, will continued to limit POPs given the isolated nature of convection. Still, storms that do form will be able to tap into MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, but shear remains meager. CAMs show DCAPE increasing into the 1500-1800 J/kg range late this afternoon/early evening primarily across NW OH/NE IN. This coupled with inverted-V forecast soundings shows the potential for strong downdrafts as storms collapse. Upstream soundings this evening show PWATs holding between 1.2 and 1.4. With the strong instability, mbE Velocities holding less than 10kt, and PWATs around 1.3" (~90th percentile climatological average), storms will be able to produce locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates approaching 1-2 inches/hour. This could cause localized flooding of poor drainage areas and additional rises on rivers/streams that have continued to gradually fall since the widespread heavy rain from the middle of the month.

What convection that does develop this afternoon/evening will wain after sunset again leading to a mostly dry overnight period.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

Ridge quickly breaks down on Wednesday as the southern low slides over the Ark-La-Tex area. At the same time, brief zonal flow across the northern Plains/upper Midwest becomes more meridional as weak troughing gradually deepens. This opens the area up to a greater coverage of convection as embedded shortwaves propagate within the upper flow. Shear remains meager, but a greater coverage of precip may allow storms later in the day to capitalize on enhanced low level shear near residual outflow boundaries. Something to keep an eye on for storm enhancement, but overall severe chances remain low. PWATs are also shown to increase into the 1.7-1.8" range on Wednesday as steering winds remain very light. This would result in a greater areal extent of heavy rain/flooding concerns.

Southern low begins getting ingested into the northern trough on Thursday into Friday as a cold front drops across the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Models slightly differ concerning precip chances on Thursday given slightly different depictions of how the southern low is ingested. Will lean towards the ECMWF given a fairly consistent evolution over the past several runs. While this does maintain likely POPs on Thursday, the better deep layer moisture would be pushed north and east of the area. So while precip chances are fairly high, storms may not be as efficient in rainfall production given lower moisture to work with.

Cold front starts to enter the area on Friday which will usher in the end of precip however, models continue to slow the progression of the cold front. While the forecast reflects a frontal passage around midday, it may be later in the afternoon/evening.

Dry and cooler conditions continue to be the theme for this coming weekend as a cooler Canadian airmass sets up shop. Highs will be in the 70s with morning lows in the upper 40s to near 50.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

VFR will persist through the period with strong midlevel ridge holding over the Great Lakes. Building instability in hot/humid airmass will support some ISO/SCT convection late this afternoon. However . very little (if any) forcing mechanisms present and hi- res CAM's suggest even lower coverage than yesterday. Will therefore hold off on mentioning in the TAF for one more cycle. Best chances will be late in the day . allowing more time to pin down exact timing and possible impacts to the terminals.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . CM SHORT TERM . CM LONG TERM . CM AVIATION . AGD

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 21 mi40 min S 8 G 9.9 82°F 64°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 31 mi40 min SE 8 G 8.9 67°F 65°F
CNII2 34 mi30 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 71°F 63°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 35 mi60 min SSE 7 G 8.9 82°F 1015.7 hPa65°F
45168 44 mi30 min WSW 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 68°F1016.5 hPa (-0.4)64°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi30 min S 6 G 7 83°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN25 mi35 minSSE 610.00 miFair81°F71°F74%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3SW5S5N5CalmN4CalmS3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S3SE5S5
1 day agoSW6W6CalmSW7SE3CalmCalmCalmS7S4S6S9
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2 days agoSE8E9
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SE7E6E4CalmS7SE9SE6S7S5S4S4S3S3CalmS4S4W4S3SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.