Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:46PM Saturday August 17, 2019 7:35 AM CDT (12:35 UTC) Moonrise 9:12PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 243 Am Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Today..West winds 5 to 10 kt backing to south 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ080 Expires:201908171515;;763409 FZUS63 KMKX 170743 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 243 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure of 29.7 inches over northern Lake Michigan will steadily move to the east today. Light winds this morning will eventually become predominate out of the south, southeast this afternoon and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will pass across Lake Michigan on Sunday bringing an increase in southwesterly winds. There will be periodic chances for showers and storms this weekend, with the better chances tonight and Sunday morning. High pressure of 30.0 inches will move into the region on Monday, before quickly shifting east of the area Tuesday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-171515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Beach, MI
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location: 42.03, -87     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 171041
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
641 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 1257 pm edt Fri aug 16 2019
several weak systems will bring periodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms today into the start of next week. Highs today will
reach the lower 80s. Temperatures and humidity levels will be on
the rise, with highs on Sunday potentially reaching the upper 80s
to near 90 degrees and continuing into Tuesday.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 242 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
morning water vapor imagery shows a pair of troughs dropping across
the upper midwest while sfc obs show a slowing frontal boundary
extending from northern mo northeastwards across northern il to over
lake michigan. This front should slowly move southeastwards with
time in conjunction with the upper trough. Isolated convection has
develop over east-central il along this front, and has started to
slowly shift eastwards in response to the pivoting axis of the
leading trough. Cams have been fairly consistent in spreading this
convection across the southern half of the CWA in the 08-12z
timeframe. These storms would be moving into an EML of round 700-
1000 j kg with 20-25kt of 0-3km bulk shear. This will keep the
chance for a strong to marginally severe storm possible with gusty
winds as the primary hazard. As we've already seen with the
earlier convection, locally heavy rain will be possible with this
round as well as pwats along and south of hwy 30 are between
1.5-1.75". This highly saturated airmass and the deep warm cloud
layer will mitigate hail potential as significant melting
potential is likely.

Fog will likely be much more localized this morning as low level
mixing is expected to be greater this morning compared to the past
few mornings. The exception is our southern lower michigan
counties due to ample ground moisture provided by earlier
convection.

A brief lull in convective activity is possible after 12z as the
secondary trough brings a decaying MCS from ks mo into the western
half of the CWA between 16z and 18z. Some gusty wind and heavy rain
will be possible as it diminishes over the area. Models show a
residual MCV following this MCS to re-invigorate convection this
evening tonight along a stalled frontal boundary draped across
southern lower michigan. Decent shear, instability, and
climatologically high pwats will enable storms to produce strong
wind gusts and heavy rainfall. There is potential for flooding for
our southern lower michigan counties considering they received
1-2 inches of rain this morning, could receive additional
rainfall during the day, and are forecast to have training storms
late tonight early Sunday morning.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 242 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
early Sunday morning, a trough over the high plains is forecast to
dig across the upper midwest. This is forecast to send a MCS from
mn ia east-southeastwards into the northwester zones between
12-15z. The MCS will start to lose the upper forcing as it
progresses eastwards across the area around midday due to the
trough axis quickly lifting into ontario. This will likely result
in a relatively dry Sunday afternoon as high temperatures reach
into the upper 80s to near 90s.

Upper ridge builds across the central plains Sunday night through
Tuesday which will keep a low chance for rainfall in the forecast
as embedded perturbations with the northwesterly flow drop
through the western great lakes. Warm and humid conditions are
also expected Monday and Tuesday as mid-70s dewpoints combine with
afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This will
result in afternoon heat index values in the mid to upper 90s both
days.

The weather pattern transitions for the second half of the work
week. Models show a strong closed low dropping across ontario
Wednesday and sends a cold front through the area. The result will
be cool mornings of the mid 50s and pleasant afternoons in the
70s Thursday into the weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 615 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
multiple rounds of convection is possible for both terminals for
the 12z TAF cycle. Ongoing convection will continue to move to the
east-southeast with time. This should keep thunder out of both
terminals, but kfwa should get some light rain. Also ongoing
patchy ground fog should also dissipate quickly within the first
hour or two of this TAF cycle.

A lull in convection is possible roughly from 14z until 18z. By
18z, a decaying MCS moving eastwards from mo il will likely be
moving towards the terminals. Have continued prevailing rain for
kfwa from the previous forecast, but added a vicinity thunder
mention due to slightly better instability this afternoon.

Inserted a vicinity mention for ksbn for now as there is some
uncertainty with the northwards extent of the mcs.

Another chance for convection will be possible for both terminals
towards the end of this TAF cycle as yet another MCS will be
moving in from the west. Inserted a prob30 group for ksbn as they
will be much closer to the track of the mcs. Left mention out for
kfwa due to greater uncertainty.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Steinwedel roller cm
short term... Cm
long term... Cm
aviation... Cm
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 21 mi45 min SSW 7 G 8 70°F 68°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 21 mi25 min W 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 74°F1 ft1012.9 hPa65°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 27 mi35 min W 5.1 G 7 74°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.6)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 28 mi55 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 70°F 1013.9 hPa
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 31 mi45 min W 4.1 G 4.1 74°F 69°F
45177 34 mi155 min 75°F
CNII2 34 mi35 min WSW 2.9 G 6 72°F 65°F
OKSI2 34 mi95 min NNW 1 G 2.9 74°F
45174 35 mi25 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 74°F1 ft1011.1 hPa
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 35 mi47 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 1012.4 hPa70°F
FSTI2 35 mi95 min W 6 71°F
JAKI2 35 mi95 min W 4.1 G 5.1 71°F
45168 44 mi25 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 73°F1 ft1012.8 hPa66°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 45 mi35 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 72°F 1013.2 hPa67°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi35 min WSW 6 G 7 73°F
45186 48 mi35 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 69°F 74°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN25 mi40 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F68°F100%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS5S6S7S8S8S8S9S8S9
G15
S7S8S6S6S7S3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
1 day agoNW3N7
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN7NW6N8N5N5N5N7N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.