Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 4:14 AM   Moonset 5:10 PM

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LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 839 Am Cdt Sun May 5 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Rest of today - North winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Tonight - North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt late in the evening, then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday night - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Showers in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt backing to southeast 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thursday - North winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.

LMZ005
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FXUS63 KIWX 051850 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 250 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Primarily dry conditions will persist through Monday night but there is a low chance of rain south of US-30 late Monday.

- Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Wednesday night. Some of these storms may be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. However, confidence in timing, placement, and strength remains low.

- Cooler weather returns to end the week with periodic additional chances for light rain.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Dry/tranquil weather will persist through Mon morning. Weak/diffuse cold front has largely cleared our area with stubborn postfrontal stratus deck holding in our northern counties. Can't entirely rule out a sprinkle in our far E/SE but best chances remain outside of our area. Overnight cloud forecast is tricky with most guidance suggesting clearing by sunset. However, models have struggled with this cloud cover over the past 12 hours and confidence is not high. Will therefore hold with partly cloudy skies and lows generally around 50F. Cooler temps possible if clouds scatter entirely.

Broad midlevel shortwave will lift into the Ohio Valley tomorrow but sharp midlevel ridging/AVA will maintain strong subsidence over the Great Lakes. Still some uncertainty exactly how far north showers survive tomorrow. General trend has been to keep precip just to our south given weak 850mb theta-e advection in our area. There are a few outliers though that suggest light showers sneaking to about the US-30 corridor. Have therefore stayed very close to inherited low PoP's confined to our south. No impacts expected either way as profiles appear too stable to support thunder and any rain will be very light.

Primary focus continues to be on Tue-Wed for potential severe weather and heavy rain concerns as deep western CONUS upper low lifts NE toward the Great Lakes. This will actually occur in piecemeal fashion as another strong Pacific jet/trough comes onshore Monday and forces the development of a very large upper low over the Northern Plains/Rockies that will also eject eastward in a piecemeal fashion later this week. Unsurprisingly models are struggling with exact details in this complicated pattern and confidence remains on the low side.

Still expect the initial wave and associated warm front to lift through the area late morning-early afternoon Tue. Models have slowed this initial wave a bit which complicates the severe weather forecast. A later arrival could result in that being the primary "show" (which could itself feature large hail and damaging winds given steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate instability of 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, and a strongly sheared environment). Early arrival could limit the instability but if the slower trends continue that will increase the risk with round 1. If that is the case that will in turn limit our potential for a second round during the evening hours though with primary focus for severe storms well to our south.

After a break Tue night into early Wed we will watch the potential for another round of storms Wed evening-overnight as the primary upper low finally releases east. All ingredients for severe weather and flooding remain favorable given ample moisture advection on strong LLJ, high instability, and very strong shear. The question for Wed will be where exactly these ingredients come together with track of surface low dependent on exact evolution of upper low and likely some mesoscale influences from the day before. It is possible the surface low and associated highest severe risks remain to our south as suggested by the 12Z deterministic GFS and reflected in the SWODY4. However several models suggest a further north track that would impact our CWA

Bottomline...the ingredients are in place for potentially several rounds of strong/severe storms but details regarding exact timing, placement, and strength remain low. Continue to monitor the forecast closely as we narrow down these details in the coming days.

Negative height anomalies persist over eastern Canada for much of the Thu-Sat period. This will result in cooler temps with periodic chances for light rain. Better moisture and associated instability is shunted out of our region though. Chances for generic thunderstorms (let alone strong storms) appear very low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Surface high pressure moving through today provides a reprieve from the rainfall for this TAF period. It moves in on the heels of an area of cold air advection that brought clouds to the area last night into this morning. This afternoon started with MVFR and IFR CIGs around, but they are expected to rise with the diurnal curve not too long into this TAF period. West winds today become more easterly overnight with the high pressure system to our north, and that is expected to provide more cloud cover into Monday. There is still quite a bit of variance in model output of CIG heights, but with the NBM having 30 to 40 percent chance of less than 3 kft CIGs will put a tempo group in there to indicate the possibility. Future shifts will want to continue to investigate this possibility further.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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