Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:19PM Sunday December 15, 2019 3:51 AM CST (09:51 UTC) Moonrise 9:00PMMoonset 11:13AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 256 Am Cst Sun Dec 15 2019 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 kt. Slight chance of snow overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
LMZ080 Expires:201912151645;;811837 FZUS63 KMKX 150856 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 256 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2019 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS... Northwest winds will decrease as high pressure of 30.2 inches builds into Wisconsin this afternoon. Low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. However, in general rather light winds will continue across Lake Michigan through Monday. Gusty northwest winds then move in for Tuesday as low pressure of 29.8 inches develops over southern Ontario before into southeastern Quebec Wednesday. && LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-151645-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Beach, MI
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 150905 CCA AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED SYNOPSIS National Weather Service Northern Indiana 359 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 355 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

A few flurries or pockets of very light drizzle may persist this morning across far northern Indiana into southern Lower Michigan, but otherwise dry weather is expected today. Some brief clearing is possible across northwest Indiana away from lake enhanced clouds, but more mid and high clouds will stream back into the area this afternoon. A storm system will then affect the region tonight through Monday night bringing snow to the area in two pieces. Light snow accumulations tonight will range from 1 to 3 inches along and south of the Route 24 corridor tapering to less than an inch northward to Route 6. Little or no snow accumulation is expected across southern Lower Michigan. A lull in the precipitation is expected Monday before some additional snow may move back into the region late Monday afternoon into Monday night. High temperatures today will reach into the low to mid 30s with low temperatures tonight in the mid 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 355 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The patchy drizzle from last evening subsided during the early overnight hours, but still cannot discount some scattered flurries or very light patchy drizzle through shortly after daybreak. Did receive a few reports of slick conditions last evening, but currently not expecting significant impacts from any additional light precip this morning.

Skies may partially clear later this morning/early afternoon across the west away from lake enhanced cloudiness, but mid and high clouds should rapidly expand northeast into the area as strong mid level warm advection overspreads the region. Limited mixing today along with good deal of cloud cover should limit highs to the low to mid 30s.

Main periods of interest for this forecast period continue to include tonight through Monday night. The system that will be impacting the region tonight reached the California coast last evening, which should allow for some better sampling of this feature and associated eastern Pacific jet streak with the 12Z balloon launches. Latest guidance trends continue to support forecast trends from the previous forecast in two distinct periods of snow potential. The first period will be tonight in a predominant warm advection pattern. A lull is looking increasing likely for much of the day Monday as the Pacific short wave lags considerably, with better chances of snow again for Monday night as the upper wave approaches.

For tonight, snow should spread from south to north across the region in the 01Z-05Z timeframe as weak low level jet lifts across the Ohio Valley. Some speed convergence at the nose of this jet coupled with a strong mid/upper level baroclinic zone advecting into the region today may allow for some weak banded structure within the broader warm advection induced snow. However, potential of this banding appears to be more optimal to the south across central Indiana where low level forcing/instability is maximized. Model/time height sections do indicate some reduced static stability across northern Indiana tonight owing to the strong mid/upper level baroclinicity and upper level vertical speed shear, but this instability may be positioned in relatively dry mid/upper level profiles. Confidence is high in accumulating snow across southern half of the area tonight, with main item of uncertainty on northward extent of accumulating snow. It is possible far northern locations north of the Toll Road receive little or no accumulation tonight while locations along and south of the Route 24 corridor receive 1 to 3 inches (perhaps locally 4 inches).

This advective forcing wanes after daybreak Monday with a possibility of some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle as precip ends. Not expecting the low confidence drizzle aspect of this event to be impactful, but some snow covered roads may make the Monday morning commute hazardous. Have continued trend of previous forecast in lower PoPs during the day Monday as we then we will have to wait for the lagging upper trough. Forecast confidence dwindles with this second phase Monday night. The downstream fgen banding from this wave will be highly sensitive to just minor changes in the sharpness/strength of this upper wave. There may be a subtle trend over past few runs in deterministic model solutions of another perturbation digging into the southwest periphery of this positively tilted upper trough to hold back the negative height anomaly across the southern Plains a bit longer, resulting in a slightly more suppressed evolution of low level features for Monday night. 00Z GEM remains a northern outlier which would bring decent snow accums back across southeast third of the area Monday night, but for this forecast have placed more weight on increasing agreement in SREF/GEFS means. 00Z GEFS also exhibited much closer agreement of individual members compared to previous iterations in more suppression. Thus, will limit additional snowfall amounts across the southeast to 1 to 2 inches at this point, with lesser accumulations elsewhere. Will have to monitor trends over next 24 hours however, as setup could still be conducive for narrow enhanced banding across the south/southeast depending on how upstream wave evolves.

No headlines will be issued this morning, as tonight's snow should remain generally below advisory criteria followed by a lull for most of the day Monday. Given this spacing, and lower confidence in Monday night scenario, will hold off on headlines and continue to highlight the two-phase nature of this system in HWO/social media with likely impacts to at least the Monday morning commute.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 355 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

No notable changes made to the long term forecast as a relatively quiet period is anticipated. The big story for the long term will be on extent of arctic air mass intrusion midweek, although latest GFS has joined EC idea of only a more glancing blow with brunt of this airmass for Tuesday night-Wednesday night. Kept lake effect PoPs below mentionable levels given this uncertainty and what appears to be shallow instability, and just a brief period of better moisture in DGZ. Temps should recover to near seasonal norms late work week/next weekend as expansive upper ridging develops across central CONUS.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1157 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Drier air will continue to filter in behind trough this morning. This should bring an end to any patchy freezing drizzle and flurries by 08/09z. MVFR cigs prevail otherwise through the early afternoon with west winds gradually diminishing.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LMZ043- 046.



SYNOPSIS . Marsili SHORT TERM . Marsili LONG TERM . Marsili AVIATION . Steinwedel

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 21 mi31 min W 16 G 24 26°F 18°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 27 mi51 min WNW 12 G 18 29°F 1014.2 hPa (+2.7)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 31 mi31 min NW 12 G 14 24°F 17°F
CNII2 34 mi21 min W 6 G 14 25°F 16°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 35 mi51 min WNW 8.9 G 11 24°F 1014.4 hPa (+2.9)15°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi41 min W 15 G 18 29°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN25 mi56 minNW 810.00 miOvercast28°F24°F86%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W6NW6NW8W9W8NW7NW8
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1 day agoS7S6S4S5S5S6S5S5S5S4SW6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE6SE5SE7S7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.