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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gibraltar, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 280755 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 255 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

DISCUSSION.

Ribbon of upper level PV rotating south through the Great Lakes region this morning as large upper level circulation over Eastern Canada has bottomed out and will begin to slowly unravel today. Extremely dry airmass in place (PW under 0.10 inches per 00z DTX sounding) and unfavorable northwest low level flow is not expected to yield much more than flurries across most locations, as NAM soundings indicate a shallow layer (1000 feet) of cape/supersaturation with respect to ice in the 4-5 kft layer, with a lot of sub cloud dry air around. The exception looks to be across the northern Thumb region, where there is a Lake Superior-Lake Michigan-Saginaw Bay connection setting up this afternoon/evening as back door cold front drops south from Lake Huron, as an additional piece of upper level energy rotates through the Central Great Lakes. There is modest concern the main Lake Huron band/convergence could brush the eastern Huron shoreline tonight, potentially leading to accumulations greater than an inch. Airmass does not look much different from yesterday, and thus expecting highs in the mid to upper 20s.

Amplified upper level ridge building into the Western Great Lakes tonight, but it still appears enough low clouds hang around and light northwest winds to keep temps from cratering, and Euro/MAV/MET guidance all suggest mid/upper teens. Although, with the 850 mb warming looking to kick in toward sunrise Saturday, a west to east clearing trend is likely for SAturday. The expected developing insolation should be able to support low/mid 30s for highs.

Warm front lifting through late Saturday night with nothing more than mid/high clouds, setting us up for a mild Sunday with increasing southerly winds, as gusts likely reach 25 mph (per local probabilistic guidance). 925 mb temps climbing into the lower single numbers in the afternoon, certainly supportive of highs well into the 40s.

Early next week, models have trended toward a split flow pattern, with upper level waves mainly remaining separate from each other. The strongest and deepest upper level low looks to track just offshore of the California coast Sunday nigh and does not move through Mexico until Tuesday night, per 00z Euro. For us, it looks like a weak northern stream shortwave trough tracks through on Monday, but slight height rises already occuring on Tuesday before another cold front/shortwave trough arrives on Wednesday. While this occurs, there looks to be another wave and moisture along the central Mississippi River valley which could clip the area, mainly near the southern Michigan border in the Monday night-Tuesday time frame. Even so, thermal profiles profiles look just warm enough to support rain. Additional showers possible on Wednesday ahead of the previous mentioned cold front tracking through, but would not rule out enough cold air arriving to support changeover to snow before precipitation ends.

MARINE.

The Gale and Freezing Spray Warnings for the open waters of Lake Huron will continue into the afternoon, as the pattern remains driven by low pressure over southern Quebec which will gradually fill in and moves northeast today. Although the gale warning is forecasted to expire late in the afternoon, additional snow squalls tonight could produce localized, brief gales over northern Lake Huron. Conditions will dramatically improve for the weekend as high pressure and a milder airmass arrives.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1155 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

AVIATION .

An area of deep low pressure will continue to deepen northeast of Lake Huron eastward through Quebec. This has positioned Southeast Michigan favorably to strong westerly gradient flow. The deep mixed layer will persist tonight, but loss of daytime heating has allow for shallow surface based stability and caused winds to settle down some this evening. Latest satellite trends support some enhanced I 94 corridor convergence. Do not think this will result in precipitation, but earlier thinking of persistent stratocumulus along this corridor has been spot on. For Friday, models show additional strengthening of the upper level low pressure system in Canada. This will result in another day of strong west to northwest winds.

For DTW . Question for tonight centers on clouds as latest satellite suggests some I 94 lake cloud. With flow becoming more laminar tonight will need to watch for cigs within this banding dropping into MVFR. Confidence in that is low attm.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ049- 054.

Lake Huron . Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ361>363-462>464.

Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ361>363-462>464.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . SF AVIATION . CB

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
TWCO1	25 mi	27 min	WSW 14 G 17
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	30 mi	47 min	W 7 G 9.9	19°F			1014.2 hPa	13°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	32 mi	77 min	W 9.9 G 23	21°F			1012.9 hPa (-0.6)
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH	32 mi	77 min	W 18 G 20	22°F			1014.9 hPa (-0.7)
CMPO1	35 mi	107 min	W 9.9 G 13	18°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	40 mi	47 min	SW 4.1 G 9.9	20°F	32°F		1013.9 hPa	15°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

-12 PM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

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1 AM

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Last 24hr

NW14 G18

W10

W9 G13

W10 G14

W10 G16

W12 G21

W14 G27

W16 G23

NW16 G22

W15 G25

W15 G24

W17 G26

W22 G35

NW15 G24

W13 G22

W11 G20

W12 G18

W9 G12

W6 G10

W8

W6 G9

W5

W6

1 day ago

N7 G13

N6 G12

N7 G12

N8 G14

N5 G9

N4 G8

N3 G8

N4 G9

N5 G11

N5 G9

N4 G9

N3 G8

N7 G16

N8 G17

N7 G17

N5 G14

NW12 G17

NW12 G19

NW11 G15

NW5 G9

NW9 G14

NW10 G16

NW9 G14

NW12 G16

2 days ago

NE8 G13

NE6 G15

NE6 G12

NE6 G11

NE6 G14

NE7 G11

NE6 G14

NE5 G11

NE5 G12

NE8 G13

NE7 G12

NE7 G11

NE5 G10

NE6 G14

NE8 G13

NE7 G13

NE8 G14

N5 G10

N7 G13

N6 G12

N7 G13

N6 G15

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	5 mi	22 min	W 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	21°F	14°F	76%	1012.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	17 mi	24 min	W 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	21°F	12°F	68%	1013.7 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI	18 mi	22 min	WSW 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	19°F	15°F	88%	1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

NW12

NW11 G18

NW11 G17

NW10 G15

NW17 G21

NW14 G21

W12 G20

NW15 G22

W14 G22

W14 G23

W21 G30

W16 G25

W21 G27

W16 G26

W20 G28

NW17 G22

W13 G18

NW13 G20

W11 G16

W11

W8

W9

W10

W7

1 day ago

N12 G15

N13 G17

N12

N7

N8

N7

N9

N8

N8 G14

NE9

N10

N10

N11 G16

N17 G22

N10 G18

N14 G18

N16 G21

N14 G20

NW12 G17

NW8

NW12 G17

NW10 G26

NW12 G20

NW12 G16

2 days ago

NE8

NE11 G15

NE8 G15

NE10 G14

NE10 G14

NE11 G15

NE9 G15

NE12 G17

NE10 G16

NE11 G15

NE11 G17

NE11 G16

NE11

NE15 G20

NE14 G20

NE10 G18

NE13 G18

NE12 G20

N13 G19

N11 G17

N13

N9 G16

N11 G16

N12 G17

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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