Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:15 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 281922 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 322 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of showers and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow, some of which could be strong.

- Well above normal temperatures expected continue through the week.

DISCUSSION

Moist airmass in place over southeast Michigan, as the 12z DTX raob came in with a near record high PW value of 1.35 inches or 221 percent of normal. Short lived, modest mid level dry slot, is moving in for the rest of the afternoon over the Central Great Lakes, which has allowed the widespread showers this morning to taper off. Still have warm frontal boundary hanging around, with enough instability (MLcapes 400-800 J/kg) to potentially trigger convection through the evening hours, mainly north of the boundary (north of M-59). 0-1 KM bulk shear values 30+ knots along/near the front draws concern for cells to rotate, but limited cape and modest mid level lapse rates expected to keep storms non-severe, with 700-500 mb upper level ridging also tending to suppress activity.

Large, well developed, mid-upper level low/circulation over the Plains will be slowly lifting northeast into Ontario Tuesday morning. Better large scale support arrives Monday with height falls and surface cold front tracking through during the day. Favorable timing of the front during/near peak heating draws concerns for severe storms, but once again, instability is expected to be limited with MLcapes mainly under 1000 j/kg. Wind fields are elevated, with 850 mb winds (30-40 knots) and favorable 0-6 KM bulk shear around 40 knots. Would not rule out storms approaching severe limits with more substantial cloud breaks developing during the day than currently anticipated.

Muddled forecast for next week as strong upper level low and energy comes out of the Gulf of Alaska moves through the northern Rockies early next week and mostly loses it's eastern push/momentum.
Southeast Michigan loses to be caught in between the building upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. and the series of height falls tracking through the Midwest and upper Mississippi River Valley. Higher confidence in temperatures ending up solidly above normal. Low confidence in rain and thunderstorm chances.

MARINE

A low pressure system will travel north across the western Midwest today, settling over western Lake Superior by tomorrow night. This will push a stalled frontal boundary, which is currently draped over central Michigan, north into the northern Great Lakes. Rain and some rumbles of thunder remain likely along this frontal boundary through early tomorrow morning. The position of the low will also reinforce northeast flow across the Great Lakes through tomorrow morning, bringing elevated wave heights across the Saginaw Bay to Harbor Beach, where Small Craft Advisories are in effect.

A very shallow mixing layer is expected to develop tomorrow morning across north to north-central Lake Huron which will allow for some localized higher wind gust potential with flow coming from the northeast. Gusts around 30 to 35 knots will be likely, centered between 10Z to 20Z. Was on the fence with the issuance of a Gale Warning, but confidence remains low whether gale potential will persist in any given three hour window, especially if the marine layer is more stable relative to modeled sounding projections. A short fused Gale Warning will still be considered for future updates if model trends suggest higher probabilities for gale potential.

Otherwise, shower and storm potential will increase for all locations tomorrow afternoon and evening, ahead of a cold front.
Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce isolated gusts to or above 30 knots.

HYDROLOGY

Scattered-numerous showers and thunderstorms will remain mainly north of M-59 through tonight as a frontal boundary holds steady through this evening before lifting north by Monday morning. Another round of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected across all of southeast Michigan Monday afternoon as cold front tracks through. Additional rainfall this evening through tomorrow evening looks to average around half an inch across most locations, but any stronger thunderstorms will push totals to at or above 1 inch. While significant flooding is not expected at this time, minor flooding in prone urban and poor drainage areas is possible, with notable rises in area rivers.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

AVIATION...

A frontal boundary currently positioned between mbS and FNT will ease southward through the afternoon and evening period, nearing the PTK area toward 00z. Pockets of showers will continue to percolate along and north of a frontal boundary through the late day period, with the greatest coverage likely at mbS with lesser potential at FNT. This will occur within an expanding region of lower stratus, highlighted by IFR at mbS and eventual MVFR to IFR at FNT. This corridor remains susceptible to isolated thunderstorm development given proximity to the front, but with confidence in occurrence quite low as instability wanes rapidly with northward extent. VFR with dry conditions favored across the Detroit airspace through the evening, with a gusty southwest wind. Pockets of light rain will remain possible overnight as higher moisture works across the boundary. Low stratus likely entrenched throughout the night at mbS in northeast flow, with potential for a period of LIFR during the early morning hours. Northward progress of the front supports a decreasing coverage of stratus with time at FNT overnight.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Focus for thunderstorm development expected to remain west and north of the airspace through this evening. Next chance of thunderstorms arrives Monday afternoon ahead of a cold front.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

* Low in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for LHZ421-441.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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