Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Green Harbor-Cedar Crest, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:47PM Thursday January 23, 2020 6:38 PM EST (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:16AMMoonset 4:33PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 324 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of rain.
Sat night..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun and Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night through Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 324 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak cold front crosses the waters tonight followed by high pres building to the north Fri. Low pres will move ne from the mid atlc region Sat, tracking across southern new eng Sat night then into maine on Sun. The low pres will move into the maritimes Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Green Harbor-Cedar Crest, MA
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location: 42.08, -70.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 232051 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 351 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS.

One area of high pressure moves offshore tonight. A second high moves from Eastern Canada to the Maritimes for Friday. This will bring dry weather through Friday night. A storm is expected to impact the region Saturday into Saturday night with mostly rain and gusty coastal winds, but some snow is possible over the higher elevations in northern MA. Mainly dry and seasonable conditions return Sunday lasting into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/.

High pressure along the USA East Coast will shift offshore tonight. Winds will become light and variable as a weak cold front moves south through Northern New England. The high will maintain sufficient subsidence to maintain fair dry weather tonight.

Min sfc temps were partly based on model guidance, and partly on expected dew points. The general range was from the mid teens inland to around 30 on the Cape and Islands.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/.

The weak cold front moves south of Southern New England Friday morning. Surface winds turn out of the northeast by afternoon. Meanwhile, northern stream high pressure moves over the Maritimes. This high pressure and its subsidence will maintain dry weather through Friday and Friday night.

Northeast surface flow off the Gulf of Maine has the potential to bring low clouds ashore, especially across Eastern and Central MA and into RI. There is potential for the low clouds to reach CT and Western MA, but with less confidence. The forecast draws upon the NAM Nest and other short-range models to show low clouds, and is adjusted to show 4-6 mile vsbys in fog rather than vsbys down to zero as shown in the guidance.

Temperatures in the shallow mixed layer show potential for max values in the 40s. Temperatures Friday night dip to the upper 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Highlights .

* Coastal storm this weekend bringing a cold rain for much of southern New England. Best opportunity for snow is across the higher elevations of the interior where things begin as a wintry mix before transitioning to rain/snow before becoming all rain.

* Scattered rain/snow showers linger across western MA on Sunday into the early morning hours Monday.

* The dry and quiet weather returns for Monday through Wednesday. Slightly cooler temperatures compared to the weekend.

Details .

Saturday through Sunday AM .

Initially expect a cutoff low to be situated roughly between the Ohio River Valley and the central Great Lakes Saturday morning. The cutoff will slowly rotate northeastward over 24 hours into the eastern Great Lakes. The surface low associated with the system will be situated over the central Great Lakes, but a secondary low will develop lee of the Appalachians Saturday morning. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has clustered the low moving on a more westerly track, which brings the system generally up the Hudson/CT River Valley into Sunday morning.

Have continued the trend of slowing the onset of precipitation based on the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance. Precipitation will spread in from west to east. Most locations across southern New England will only see a cold rain. Precipitation will initially begin as a wintry mix across western MA, but gradually become a rain/snow mix before becoming all rain as warmer air advects in. With the southeasterly flow at 850 hPa expect +5 to +8 degree Celsius air to advect in on Saturday. Still expect accumulating snowfall across the higher elevations of the interior, but amounts should be relatively light with totals ranging from roughly 1-3 inches of heavy wet snow. Expect the majority of this to fall Saturday afternoon before things transition to rain.

Confidence in QPF amounts continues to increase with EPS and GEFS members clustering in roughly between 0.75 inches and 1.25 inches. The only crux in these values is there are a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE that leak in from roughly CT to Cape Cod as the secondary low is deepening. Not out of the question that there are a few rumbles of thunder especially across far southern New England. Heaviest precipitation is expected roughly between 18Z Saturday until 06Z Sunday. After 06Z precipitation quickly tapers off as the dry slot moves in - though showers may linger across western MA and northern CT.

Winds will increase late Saturday afternoon and especially during the evening over the ocean. Looks like borderline gale force wind gusts with the best opportunity for gales across the eastern outer waters. Small Craft Advisories will definitely be needed, but am not confident in gales at this point in time.

Sunday AM through Monday AM .

Model solutions diverge a bit on how quickly the upper level low lifts from the eastern Great Lakes into northern New England. The latest ECMWF/GEM are a bit slower than the latest GFS. However, models still vary from run to run at this point in time. Will need to keep an eye on how things trend, but prefer the slower solution as models tend to kick cutoff lows out too quickly. The surface low lifts into northern New England and models keep southern New England within the dry slot.

Am a bit concerned that based on the pattern models are too dry especially with the cutoff nearby and colder air advecting in from the west. This combined with day time heating could result in scattered shower activity. Have removed it at this point in time, but this will be something we will need to keep an eye on. Right now have any showery activity confined to the higher elevations of western MA.

Monday through Thursday .

Confidence decreases in the forecast at this time. Think that the ECMWF and GFS may be too quick with lifting out the cutoff low, whereas the GEM is slower. If the GEM is correct there will be more scattered shower activity Monday and Tuesday, but have leaned toward the majority of guidance which keeps things dry. Colder air will continue to advect in at 850 hPa during this time frame. Winds shift aloft to the northwest. Expecting -5 to -12 degree Celsius air to move in at 850 hPa during this window. Temperatures will be trending slightly cooler (in comparison to the weekend) early to mid next week.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/ . High confidence.

Tonight . VFR. SW wind 10 kt or less today becoming light N after midnight.

Friday . VFR to start. Winds turn out of the northeast 10 kt by afternoon. This may draw an area of MVFR cigs into Eastern MA during mid to late afternoon.

Friday night .

MVFR cigs and possible 4-5 mile vsbys in fog. Dry weather.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA, chance SN, slight chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA, chance FZRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, slight chance RA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

MARINE.

Short Term /through Friday Night/ . High confidence.

SW flow becomes light and variable. Winds turn out of the north late tonight behind a cold front. Northeast flow on Friday and Friday night. Seas remain below 5 feet, but may approach 5 feet on the outer waters late Friday night.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB NEAR TERM . WTB SHORT TERM . WTB LONG TERM . BL AVIATION . WTB/BL MARINE . WTB/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi49 min S 5.8 G 7.8 43°F 43°F2 ft1025.9 hPa (-0.0)32°F
44090 24 mi39 min 40°F1 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 28 mi51 min 44°F 38°F1025.1 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 28 mi49 min SSW 12 G 14 40°F 2 ft1026.7 hPa (+0.0)31°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 31 mi95 min S 5.8 G 5.8 40°F 42°F2 ft1024.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 35 mi114 min SSE 1.9 40°F 1027 hPa29°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 38 mi57 min S 5.1 G 6 40°F 1027 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 38 mi57 min 38°F 38°F1027.3 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 38 mi57 min 39°F 38°F1027.2 hPa
FRXM3 39 mi63 min 38°F 26°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi51 min S 5.1 G 5.1 38°F 38°F1027 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi57 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 38°F 1027 hPa33°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 45 mi59 min 7.8 G 12 1 ft1027.7 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi63 min S 9.9 G 11 38°F 38°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi114 min SSW 4.1 38°F 1027 hPa28°F
PRUR1 48 mi57 min 38°F 28°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi51 min WSW 5.1 G 6 38°F 1027.6 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA2 mi44 minS 310.00 miFair37°F21°F52%1026.4 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi47 minSSW 410.00 miFair37°F26°F65%1026.8 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi43 minSSW 810.00 miFair38°F32°F79%1027 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair31°F21°F69%1026.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGHG

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4SW3SW3W4W4W4W3W4SW5SW45
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SW84CalmSW4Calm
1 day agoW4CalmW5W4W4SW5W5W3W4W4W4W5W443SW344NW5E6NE5SE4CalmS4
2 days agoCalm345NW6
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CalmCalm3W3

Tide / Current Tables for Gurnet Point, Massachusetts
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Gurnet Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:44 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:58 AM EST     10.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:34 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:29 PM EST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:39 PM EST     8.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.74.82.610.71.63.25.57.99.610.29.68.26.13.51.1-0.3-0.30.82.657.28.58.7

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EST     -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST     1.21 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:35 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:48 PM EST     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:34 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:03 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:23 PM EST     1.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:13 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.2-1.2-0.50.40.91.11.20.90.3-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.4-1-0.10.711.21.10.70.1-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.