Tuesday, October27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Green Harbor-Cedar Crest, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:44PM Tuesday October 27, 2020 10:11 AM EDT (14:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:28PMMoonset 3:02AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 716 Am Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat and Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure builds into new england from the northwest today into early Thursday. Then the remnants of tropical storm zeta track along or just south of 40n latitude late Thu into Fri. NE gales may accompany this low, especially Friday evening/night. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Green Harbor-Cedar Crest, MA
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location: 42.08, -70.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 271111 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 711 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure builds in from the west today, then an upper level disturbance may bring a few showers tonight into Wednesday morning. The remnants of Zeta should bring a soaking wind swept rain Thursday into Friday, with rain possibly ending as wet snow Friday across the interior, especially in the hills. Behind this departing system, dry but blustery and cold weather follows later Friday. High pressure returns next weekend with dry but chilly weather Saturday followed by milder temperatures Sunday and next Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

7 am update .

The cold front has moved offshore early this morning and winds have come around to the NW across the region. This has allowed for lifting clouds in its wake as drier air filters in the in the upper levels, but the Cape and Islands remain socked in. It may take several more hours for significant improvement there. Radar shows some very light post frontal showers over central and eastern MA, but this should be the last of the precip for the day.

Previous Discussion .

Cold front will move off the coast toward daybreak with a wind shift to NW and an improvement in vsbys. Area of showers across New York assocd with a weak shortwave which moves across SNE through 12z. A few weakening showers are possible early this morning as deeper moisture plume moves through. This moisture axis shifts to the south later this morning into the afternoon as weak high pres builds in from the west. This will allow Clouds giving way to partial sunshine from NW to SE. Northerly flow will transport cooler low level temps into SNE with 925 mb temps falling this morning with small recovery this afternoon. Expected highs will range from around 50 over higher terrain in northern and western MA to mid/upper 50s across CT/RI and SE MA.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Tonight .

Another fast moving shortwave and upper level jet will be moving into SNE tonight with accompanying area of deeper moisture. Expect clouds to quickly fill back in and a few showers are possible during tonight. Lows will range from mid/upper 30s in northern MA to lower 40s near the coast.

Wednesday .

A weak wave is forecast to develop along the mid Atlc coast and track south of New Eng. International suite of guidance is more robust than NAM/GFS with this wave and accompanying moisture and suggests a period of showers Wed morning, especially south of the Pike, lingering into the afternoon over Cape/Islands. Meanwhile, NAM/GFS keep deeper moisture suppressed to the south Wed with mainly dry weather. We will have chc pops for eastern CT/RI and SE MA but forecast confidence is below average for a day 2 forecast. It does appear drier air will be moving in from west to east during the afternoon with improving conditions and partly sunny skies developing. Highs mostly in the 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Highlights .

* Soaking rain Thu/Fri from remnants of Zeta, possibly ending as wet snow inland, especially in the hills.

* Blustery/cold Fri and Sat, then milder Sun.

Details .

Did you hear it may snow on Friday? Yes, it's true, Thursday night into Friday brings what is appearing to be our first shot at some wintry weather for the season. Exciting! However, it's not at all cut and dry, nor is it a certainty. Let's look into some of the details and factors that will influence how much, if any, snow we see in southern New England later this week.

The main players will be the remnants of what is now Hurricane Zeta as it lifts north from the Gulf into the mid-Atlantic and a mid latitude system that will interact with Zeta as they both track eastward. How this mid latitude system, which starts off as a closed upper low over the desert southwest before ejecting north and east, interacts with Zeta will impact the strength and timing of the system. Deterministic ECMWF/NAM model guidance indicates a stronger, slower, phased system by the time it crosses SNE, while the GFS moves Zeta through as a faster and weaker system, trailed by the separate subsequent system. Either way, it is looking more and more likely that a system(s) will pass by to our south in the vicinity of the 40/70 benchmark, first bringing a soaking rain, then potential for a changeover to wet snow. 00Z GEFS and EPS guidance continue to indicate a >50% chance of 1" or more of snow in the higher elevations of interior SNE, but that probability has come down from earlier runs (a good reminder that even ensemble guidance is certainly fallible. Where past EPS runs showed a 90-100% chance of 1" snow that probability has fallen to 70-80%, and plenty of members show little to no snowfall). With these split flow scenarios, especially in the shoulder seasons, we often need to see the whites of its eyes (<36-48 hours out) to really have much confidence in the snow forecast. Adding further headache to the precip type forecast is the NAM's idea of a +3C warm layer at 700 mb over top of subfreezing air below it which would lead to sleet or freezing rain. Stay tuned.

However, what we are fairly certain of at this point is that the Thursday-Friday timeframe will be wet and likely quite windy as well. A tap of tropical moisture will stream north ahead of the trough and over top of a cooler airmass, while placement beneath the right rear quadrant of a 160 kt upper jet provides ample synoptic lift. Colder air arrives behind the system Thursday night into Friday and depending on the timing this may even allow for some novelty snow flakes closer to the coast. If this happens, would not expect any accumulation.

A very strong low level jet accompanies this storm system which will make for gusty winds on Friday, especially over the waters where seas will be very rough. Gale headlines will likely be needed for some of the waters. Strong northeast flow into the region on Friday may lead to some minor coastal flooding on the northeast/east facing shores, but low astronomical tides will really help keep that from being a bigger issue.

Finally, a very cold and drier airmass moves in for Saturday (850 mb temps down to -6C) under a sprawling high pressure, so things should be cold and dry. The the latter half of the weekend temperatures moderate and things may become unsettled once more as another trough approaches.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z update .

Through 12z . IFR/LIFR stratus and fog with improving vsbys after wind shift to NW. Isolated shower possible.

Today . High confidence in trends. IFR/LIFR stratus and fog continue on the Cape and islands in proximity to the cold front, but should slowly improve with wind shift to NW. Conditions improving to VFR during the morning, but MVFR/IFR cigs over Cape/Islands may not improve until afternoon. N winds around 10 kt.

Tonight and Wednesday . Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR cigs but areas of MVFR possible. A few showers possible tonight, which may become focused south of the Mass Pike late tonight into Wed morning.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF trends with improvement to VFR around 12z.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF trends with improvement to VFR by 12z.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA.

Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA, chance SHSN.

Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Today . A period of northerly wind gusts around 20-22 kt this morning diminishing in the afternoon. Seas below SCA.

Tonight and Wednesday . Northerly winds below 15 kt becoming SW with gusts to 20 kt Wed afternoon. Seas remaining below SCA. Scattered showers developing late tonight into Wed, especially southern waters.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers.

Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers.

Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/BW NEAR TERM . KJC/BW SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . KJC/BW MARINE . KJC/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi82 min NNW 18 G 19 52°F 56°F3 ft1019.7 hPa (+2.2)43°F
44090 24 mi45 min 58°F3 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 28 mi60 min 51°F 56°F1020.3 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 28 mi82 min N 16 G 19 53°F 4 ft1019.7 hPa (+1.5)46°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 31 mi128 min NNW 16 G 19 52°F 56°F3 ft1019.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 35 mi87 min WNW 5.1 55°F 1020 hPa53°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 38 mi54 min NNE 11 G 16 55°F 1021.2 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 38 mi54 min 55°F 61°F1020.5 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 38 mi54 min 54°F 61°F1021.7 hPa
FRXM3 39 mi54 min 54°F 52°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi60 min ENE 5.1 G 8.9 54°F 58°F1021.3 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi54 min NNE 7 G 12 54°F 1021.3 hPa47°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 45 mi32 min N 18 G 23 61°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi54 min NNW 12 G 16 54°F 60°F1020.6 hPa
CHTM3 46 mi54 min N 7 G 16 54°F 57°F1019.9 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi87 min NNE 9.9 56°F 1021 hPa50°F
PRUR1 48 mi54 min 56°F 52°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi54 min NE 9.9 G 14 55°F 1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA2 mi17 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast54°F44°F72%1021 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi20 minN 910.00 miOvercast52°F42°F69%1021 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi16 minN 1110.00 miOvercast53°F48°F83%1020.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi20 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast53°F42°F66%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGHG

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Gurnet Point, Massachusetts
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Gurnet Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:08 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:23 AM EDT     8.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:28 PM EDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:38 PM EDT     9.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.43.21.50.81.12.24.16.388.98.87.96.44.32.41.31.32.13.75.97.899.18.4

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:32 AM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:08 AM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:59 PM EDT     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:30 PM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-1.3-0.60.10.60.91.10.90.50.1-0.3-0.7-1.1-1.3-0.9-0.10.40.7110.60.2-0.2-0.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.