Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Green Harbor-Cedar Crest, MA

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Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 7:43PM Saturday August 17, 2019 8:33 AM EDT (12:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 717 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon and Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue through Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak ridge of high pressure across the region will result in light east to southeast winds today and into early Sunday. Winds will turn by Monday and through early next week as high pressure strengthens well to the southeast over the atlantic. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Green Harbor-Cedar Crest, MA
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location: 42.08, -70.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 171153
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
753 am edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
Mainly dry, seasonable conditions continue today, with a chance
for showers and an isolated thunderstorm north and west. Humid,
hot conditions return Sunday, with an increasing risk for some
showers and thunderstorms. These conditions continue through
midweek, when a cold front will sweep through. Drier and not as
warm late next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Only minor tweaks to the forecast this morning to reflect
observed trends.

Previous discussion...

no huge changes to the prior forecasts we've had. In general,
today will be a dry day, though it will feel a bit muggy. Quite
a bit of low clouds across much of the region early this
morning, with some areas of fog -- especially across far SE ma.

Still some uncertainty as to how widespread the fog will be
first thing this morning, but at this point thinking it won't be
too bad (famous last words). Also watching showers approaching
the ct border. Seem to be slowly weakening, but could reach the
hartford area before they totally vanish. Have maintained some
low pops in that area.

The low clouds will slowly break up later this morning, but with
ample moisture, they'll quickly be replaced by daytime cumulus.

Net result is that we'll end up partly sunny. 925mb temperatures
are on the rise, and will be around 19c in the east to 21c in
the west. That should support temperatures in the mid 80s
(especially in areas that get the most sun). A light
south southeast flow will ensure cooler conditions will occur
along the coast.

Some surface based instability, with capes of 1000-1500 j kg is
expected to develop across central western ma and northern ct
this afternoon. Not a huge amount of forcing around locally
(much better farther to our north and west), but an isolated
shower or t-storm is not out of the question. Have painted in
20-30% pops across that area, generally using a blend of hi-res
models as the foundation for that aspect of the forecast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
As of 300 am...

models indicate a weak shortwave will zip across northern new
england overnight. Despite the loss of daytime heating, the
southern tail of that piece of energy will be close enough to
keep the threat of showers or a thunderstorm going through the
first half of the overnight -- especially for areas along and
north of the mass pike. In addition, the shortwave will help to
produce a decent amount of shear, with 0-6km shear progged to be
30-35kts in that area. That suggests the potential for some
organization so perhaps we'll see a strong storm during the
evening.

Otherwise across the eastern half of the region, all guidance
suggests a return of the low clouds and even better chances of
widespread fog, much of it could be rather dense.

Temperatures will only drop off to the mid 60s to low 70s in
urban areas, with dewpoints still running high -- so it will be
again muggy.

Sunday we'll see southwest flow get deeper, with even more
moisture pushing into the area. Precipitable water values will
be approaching 2" by afternoon. Models are also indicating
additional shortwave energy coming through at some point in the
day. GFS has a single stronger wave, while the NAM is a bit
disorganized with several weaker disturbances. Net result is the
same however, that we should see scattered showers and a few
t-storms develop. Primary area would be central and western ma
and northern ct. Lesser chances across SE ma and the
cape islands as low level southwest flow off the water will keep
things stable. Don't see indications of strong organized
convection, but perhaps more florida-like pulse type storms.

With the high moisture values, brief downpours would be the
primary threat.

Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer as 925mb
temperatures are in the 21-24c range. Given full sun, we would
be talking about surface temperatures pushing 90f. However there
should be a good deal of clouds, so I stuck a little bit toward
some of the "cooler" guidance. Lots of mid 80s for highs (cooler
along the coast)

Long term Sunday night through Friday
17 00z guidance remains in rather good agreement with the
overall synoptic pattern through the end of next week. With a
dominant ridge across the southern usa, the northern tier
remains under the influence of a decent mid level flow. This
mid level flow will steer a series of shortwaves in our
direction through mid week. While we have high confidence these
waves will pass nearby, the timing remains more uncertain. Will
continue to favor a consensus approach, with a bias toward
typical convective climatology for our region.

A cold front will start to approach our region Tuesday, but is
unlikely to get enough push to completely cross southern new
england until sometime Thursday. This will be the general
period of greatest risk for any showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure with drier weather expected for next Friday.

Until this front crosses our region, it should remain very warm,
if not hot, and very humid. Dewpoints should approach 70
degrees, raising the possibility of local downpours where it
does rain. With temperatures around 90 degrees early next week,
we may need heat advisories for a time.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Expecting more widespread stratus this morning. Visibility
dropped briefly around 12z, but should improve through 14z.

Appears the low ceilings will be slow to lift dissipate, soVFR
conditions aren't expected until 17z or so in most areas. MVFR
ceilings will likely remain all day along off the south coast of
ma.

All available guidance indicates Saturday night has a higher
probability of seeing widespread ifr, not only ceilings but
visibility as stratus and fog is expected cover much of eastern
ma and ri, especially after 02z or so.

There is a small chance for a few showers or a thunderstorm
across northern ct and western ma late this afternoon, with the
chances increasing slightly Saturday night, and have included
vcsh for baf and bdl tafs.

Kbos terminal... Honestly, the easiest aspect of the forecast are
winds, which will remain 10kts or less from 110-130 degrees.

Ceilings expected to drop under 1000ft through 12z or so, but
might stay a bit higher. Visibility forecast is low confidence
through 12z. More confident for ifr visibilities Saturday night.

Kbdl terminal... Overall moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra with isolated tsra. Patchy br.

Monday through Monday night:VFR. Slight chance shra with
isolated tsra.

Tuesday through Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra with isolated tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

Primary marine concern will be areas of fog. Fog today will be
primarily concentrated off the south coast and south of CAPE cod
and around the islands. Most should diminish during the mid-day,
but some areas will persist. The fog will redevelop Saturday
night, and is expected to stretch even up the east coast of
ma. Once again on Sunday, some fog will persist much of the day
offshore. Visibilities will be reduced to less than 1 mile in
the fog. Winds and seas aren't expected to be much of an issue.

Potential for a bump up in wave heights late this weekend and
into next week as we may see a short period southerly swell
develop due to several weak low pressure systems develop off the
north carolina coast and move out to sea.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Sunday night through Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Patchy
fog.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers with isolated
thunderstorms.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers with isolated thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Belk nash
near term... Belk nash
short term... Nash
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk nash
marine... Belk nash


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi44 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 67°F2 ft1017.8 hPa (+0.3)66°F
44090 24 mi34 min 69°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 28 mi44 min SE 9.7 G 12 64°F 2 ft1018.7 hPa (+0.0)64°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 28 mi64 min 66°F 1018.5 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 31 mi90 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 66°F 66°F2 ft1018.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 35 mi109 min ENE 1.9 67°F 1018 hPa67°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 38 mi64 min E 5.1 G 6 70°F 1018.2 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 38 mi64 min 68°F 71°F1017.9 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 38 mi64 min 71°F 77°F1018.5 hPa
FRXM3 39 mi64 min 70°F 68°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi64 min S 1 G 4.1 70°F 73°F1018 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 45 mi54 min 1 ft
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi64 min E 7 G 8 69°F 74°F1018.1 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi109 min ESE 1.9 69°F 1018 hPa69°F
PRUR1 48 mi64 min 69°F 69°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi64 min E 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA2 mi39 minSE 50.25 miFog66°F66°F100%1018.3 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi42 minESE 54.00 miFog/Mist67°F64°F93%1018.4 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi38 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast67°F66°F97%1018.7 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi42 minESE 410.00 miOvercast72°F66°F84%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGHG

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6--NE6E7NE7E7E10E10E5
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1 day ago355
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5E6E8NE65E6----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Gurnet Point, Massachusetts
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Gurnet Point
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Sat -- 01:03 AM EDT     9.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:32 PM EDT     9.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:34 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.19.89.4863.71.60.30.41.73.45.67.68.98.986.44.42.410.92.13.85.9

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
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Sat -- 12:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:05 AM EDT     -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:31 AM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:28 PM EDT     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:44 PM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.2-0.6-0.9-1.1-1.2-1-0.20.611.11.10.70.1-0.4-0.7-1-1.1-1.1-0.50.40.911

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.