Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Benton Harbor, MI

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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FXUS63 KIWX 041046 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 646 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 426 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Expect a hot and mostly dry Independence Day, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today, mainly west of Interstate 69 in the afternoon. Tonight, skies will be mostly clear with lows in the 60s. The heat continues through next week, with heat indices ranging from the mid to upper 90s through next Friday. It will be mostly dry, but there are intermittent chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Friday.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 426 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Happy Independence day! Another toasty day is on tap, with highs soaring into the upper 80s and low 90s. Heat indices will remain within a couple of degrees of the air temperature, thankfully. Conditions should remain mostly dry, though there is potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. We're still on the northern periphery of the upper level ridge, with a shortwave diving southeastward through our CWA this afternoon. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will swing in from the northeast and sink southwest across our CWA during peak heating this afternoon. Some of the guidance create a convergence zone from the lake breeze (moving towards the southeast) and the frontal boundary (moving towards the southwest), which could lead to some pop up showers/T-storms given sfc based CAPE around 1000-1500 J/Kg. Main limitation will be moisture, so expect anything that does form today will be short lived and of little consequence, dissipating by early evening as we lose our afternoon heating (just in time for any fireworks).

Dry forecast overnight, with mostly clear skies and lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 426 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

The heat continues through the long term, with a slight uptick in humidity thanks to moisture streaming in from the gulf. We'll see a few chances for showers/storms through the week (see details below), but the main concern is the extended period of temperatures in the 90s. From Monday into Thursday, highs will climb towards the mid and upper 90s, with heat indices from 95-100F. Heat advisory criteria is normally issued for days where heat indices are around 100F or higher, especially for 4 or more consecutive days. Held off on any headlines this shift as there are still some uncertainties, for example dewpoints may be a little too high further out in the forecast (models have been overdoing it lately), and if rain/cloud cover is a little more extensive than what is currently forecasted (as the GFS suggests), then high temps could be a little lower. That being said, monitor the forecast closely for updates.

Looking into precipitation chances, generally a low to medium confidence forecast. Expect dry conditions once again Sunday into Monday night, with the upper level ridge in place, a lack of notable shortwaves, and limited moisture across the CWA.

Tuesday into Wednesday we'll see our better chances, though it's looking pretty non-eventful based on recent model runs. Models shift the ridge eastward slightly, bringing a trough through the CWA. The GFS has a much deeper trough, whereas the ECMWF is weaker (and even washes it out by Wednesday afternoon, re-establishing the ridge). As mentioned in previous discussion, leaned more towards the drier ECMWF as GFS has been over-doing precipitation. Kept pops around 20- 35 percent, with the best potential tied to daytime heating Tuesday afternoon (mainly in the southwestern CWA) and again Wednesday afternoon.

Confidence decreases even further from Thursday into the weekend, as models differ regarding the strength/timing of an upper level trough that will at some point move through the Great Lakes, and the strength of a building ridge/high pressure center over the southwestern CONUS. Models are consistent in bringing a cold front through the CWA, but differ on the timing. For now kept mainly consensus pops, tailored a little closer to the ECMWF timing/strength of main features. This brings the cold front in from west to east late Thursday night into Friday. The front may get hung up before it can exit our CWA, which would continue precipitation chances mainly along our southern/eastern counties Saturday. However, much of the guidance forces the front out of the area, which would make for a dry forecast Saturday. Kept pops limited to 20-30 percent Saturday (mainly in the southeast).

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Surface ridge remained sprawled over the Upper Great Lakes to provide VFR conditions through the forecast period, and beyond, at least into early next week.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . MCD SHORT TERM . MCD LONG TERM . MCD AVIATION . Murphy

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI	2 mi	59 min	N 1.9 G 2.9	73°F			1017.6 hPa (+0.7)
45168	21 mi	29 min	N 7.8 G 9.7	73°F	76°F	1 ft	1016.8 hPa	66°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI	22 mi	59 min	NNE 8 G 8.9	73°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN	36 mi	59 min	Calm G 1	74°F				70°F
45170	37 mi	39 min	1.9 G 3.9	74°F	74°F	1 ft		72°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI	48 mi	59 min	NE 6 G 8.9	73°F			1016.8 hPa (+0.7)	68°F

Wind History for Holland, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI	2 mi	66 min	N 0	2.50 mi	Fog/Mist	70°F	68°F	93%	1016.2 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI	20 mi	64 min	E 3	7.00 mi	Fair	71°F	69°F	96%	1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN

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