Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Benton Harbor, MI

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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FXUS63 KIWX 272319 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 619 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 308 AM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

A large high pressure area will bring a cold north flow accompanied by light lake effect snow inland south of Lake Michigan into Thursday; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected. Highs will be from 25 to 30. Lows the next 3 nights will be mainly in the teens. Dry conditions are expected Friday before the next system brings accumulating snow this weekend.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Friday night) Issued at 224 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

Main focus in the short term will be LES potential in far NW tonight . otherwise quiet weather remainder of the CWA through the period. Forecast soundings still indicating small window tonight of unidirectional N/NW flow below 5Kft inversion in support of LES band shifting into our far NW and favoring a single band setup. HREF members also indicating this to one degree or another and HREF mean has narrow area of 2 inch accumulation. So with marginal delta-T and shallow equilibrium level not expecting much higher accumulations and current forecast seems on track for this. Flow then becomes more NW Thursday morning along with shallow inversion heights and more large scale subsidence so expect a fairly quick dissipation to any lingering LES. Surface high pressure then builds into the region providing fair weather through Friday with seasonably cool temps . highs generally 25-30F and lows in the mid-teens.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021 Focus in the long term remains on weekend system associated with upper trough coming onshore in the western US Friday. Deterministic models continuing trend of developing this system into a closed low over the mid-MS valley Saturday night . with varying timing/placement differences noted. System will initially tap into good moisture transport from the gulf with strong ascent along the 295K surface streaming into our area ahead of this system Saturday night. Main difference from yesterdays run is less of a negative tilt in the upper trough and more of an eastward translation to a mid-Atlantic storm by the end of the weekend. Still a really favorable window presents itself for our area centered around the 06Z Sunday timeframe where the afore-mentioned conditions align over mid-level deformation zone and 100-150m 500mb height falls and good overlap of DGZ and omega in the 600-500mb layer. Southern CWA will likely see some precip type issues as low level WAA does nudge that way and model blend has 50/50 rain vs snow probabilities. Northern 2/3 thirds should initially see mostly snow and inclined to place confidence close to latest blend guidance with 80 percent prob of greater than 2 inches but still low confidence . less than 30 percent . of exceeding 4 . seems reasonable message at this time at least until system comes onshore. Possible LES in the wake of this system on Monday but not much in the way of cold air behind this and other parameters less than ideal so not expecting much more than flurries/light snow showers. High Pressure then builds into the region providing dry forecast remainder of the period with seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 613 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

Lake plume and times of snow showers/flurries over nw IN this evening may eventually swing into KSBN tonight into Thursday morning. This will likely result in variable flight conditions with high MVFR to low VFR clouds, and the potential for brief IFR/MVFR vis restrictions with any snow showers. Better shsn coverage and accum chances should remain just west of KSBN. VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail at FWA into maybe the end of the period when lake clouds are pushed eastward. Not confident on MVFR ceilings, but did go down to 3000 ft at 18Z. Winds will be northerly tonight, then shift to the northwest Thursday afternoon.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Skipper SHORT TERM . JAL LONG TERM . JAL AVIATION . Steinwedel/Cobb

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI	2 mi	73 min	N 18 G 22	29°F			1029.5 hPa (+2.1)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI	22 mi	43 min	13 G 17	25°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN	36 mi	43 min	NNW 24 G 27	27°F				19°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI	48 mi	55 min	NNE 8 G 12	24°F	33°F		1029.2 hPa	16°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN	49 mi	43 min	NNW 11 G 14	27°F			1030.5 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI

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N9 G12

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NE13 G18

NE16 G26

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NE12 G17

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SE4 G7

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NE9 G14

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NE15 G24

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI	2 mi	20 min	ENE 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	25°F	18°F	75%	1030.9 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI	20 mi	18 min	NNE 6	10.00 mi	Light Snow	24°F	17°F	74%	1030.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)

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NE7

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E11 G18

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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