Thursday, September24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Trenton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:27PM Thursday September 24, 2020 10:50 AM EDT (14:50 UTC) Moonrise 2:44PMMoonset 11:50PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:202009070830;;440060 Fzus73 Kdtx 070653 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 253 Am Edt Mon Sep 7 2020 Lcz422-423-460-lez444-070830- 253 Am Edt Mon Sep 7 2020
.thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 252 am edt, doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 40 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near new baltimore to near the ambassador bridge to 23 nm west of luna pier, moving east at 45 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near, the ambassador bridge, new baltimore, st clair flats old channel light and wyandotte around 300 am edt. Algonac, st. Clair and belle isle around 305 am edt. Grosse pointe around 310 am edt. Luna pier around 325 am edt. Bolles harbor of refuge and north cape around 330 am edt. Monroe harbor, detroit beach and woodland beach around 335 am edt. Stony point and estral beach around 340 am edt. Detroit river light around 345 am edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach and detroit beach. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 40 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4173 8350 4194 8338 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4239 8295 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8255 4289 8252 4299 8243 4261 8252 4254 8266 4238 8282 4230 8309 4205 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trenton, MI
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location: 42.12, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 241007 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 607 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

AVIATION.

VFR conditions are expected today with cirrus thinning with time from KFNT south. Light west to southwest winds will remain generally 10 knots or less (but with a few higher afternoon gusts). Patchy ground fog will dissipate quickly this morning.

For DTW . Potential exists for shallow ground based hz for an hour or two early in the forecast.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

SE MI will remain wedged between two systems today, the first of which is the remnants of Beta now located over Mississippi, projected to travel east into the Carolinas under the influence of strengthening westerly flow, and a second of closer proximity, tied to an advancing shortwave dropping south across the WI/IL. A surface cold front draped across northern Michigan will also sag south into northern lower this morning before stalling out by the afternoon. SE MI remains too far removed from both features and will set up another dry day across the cwa, with the exception of the Tri-Cities and northern portions of the Thumb, given the closer proximity to the better moisture axis along with increasing instability building into the region. Regardless, the atmosphere below the origin of hydrometeor production will be dry and is another limiting factor for today. Little change to the thermal profile will support temperatures highs back into the upper 70s, touching 80s in some spots.

Energetic Pacific jet stream and multiple shortwave features riding along and within the stronger jet will eject across the northern Plains through the end of this week, with subtle ridging expected across the Midwest and Great Lakes Friday into early Saturday. Flow to strengthen and turn more zonal again by the weekend, ahead of the aforementioned upper-level jet, which will reinforce warm air across Michigan Saturday into early Sunday, the warmest of which is projected to travel across SE MI by Sunday morning. This will result in continued above normal temperature trends characterized by temperature highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and associated lows in the 50s to lower 60s, along with an uptick in humidity. If model trends hold and the better waa advects early Sunday morning, this could challenge some minimum high temperature records across KFNT and KMBS. Otherwise, latest model trends have been backing away from rain and thunderstorm chances over the weekend as upper-level flow is oriented a little more zonally compared to prior models, holding a good portion of the shortwave features/low pressure just north of the cwa. A strengthening trough/cold front is still projected to travel across Michigan on Sunday, but qpf amounts have been trending downwards along this feature given the dry atmospheric column in place and limited upper-level support from the lagging shortwave and jet dynamics. Overall, will not completely disregard the cold front feature and will hold chance PoPs on Sunday.

Upper-level troughing is still expected to amplify early next week as a longwave feature sets up over the central and eastern US through the middle and end of next week. Still plenty of tweaks to be made regarding precipitation chances and timing next week as there is a high spread of variance seen between ensemble members regarding the the position and timing of the building trough/ridge couplet on Monday, with then building uncertainty transitioning more for the magnitude of longwave trough amplification Tuesday into Wednesday. Bottom line is that there is convergence amount long range ensembles highlighting the developing trough and thus confidence remains high regarding a quick transition into fall-like weather starting early next week that will be met with below normal temperatures, multiple chances for rain showers, and an uptick in wind speeds and gust potential.

MARINE .

High pressure to the south will be forced northeast toward the central Appalachians today as weak low pressure develops along a stalling cold front near The Straits. The bulk of the associated showers will occur over the open waters of Lake Huron, although some activity is possible as far south as Saginaw Bay during the afternoon. Winds back southeasterly with low speeds during this time, then drift toward the south with drier weather during the day Friday. A stronger cold front arrives on Saturday bringing gusty showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the central Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for Saginaw Bay and parts of southern Lake Huron as waves occasionally reach 4 feet with increased gradient winds. After the front clears east, a cooling trend will ensue with daily chances for showers and breezier fall- like conditions. A strong low pressure system may lead to additional marine hazards Monday into Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45165 29 mi21 min W 3.9 G 3.9 64°F 65°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 29 mi51 min W 5.1 G 11 66°F 1016.3 hPa (+1.4)
TWCO1 30 mi21 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 64°F57°F
45147 - Lake St Clair 33 mi51 min SW 9.7 G 12 67°F1 ft1013.6 hPa (+0.9)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 34 mi51 min W 5.1 G 8.9 65°F 1015.4 hPa (+0.9)51°F
CMPO1 40 mi81 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 63°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 46 mi51 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 66°F1015.3 hPa (+1.1)52°F
AGCM4 48 mi51 min 66°F 65°F1015.4 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI1 mi56 minNW 410.00 miFair65°F57°F75%1015.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi58 minW 48.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F55°F70%1015.8 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI19 mi56 minW 610.00 miFair66°F56°F71%1016.3 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI21 mi58 minW 410.00 miFair69°F55°F61%1015.7 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI23 mi58 minW 610.00 miFair66°F55°F70%1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS5S5S7S5S4S4CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W4NW3W3CalmSW4W3NW4
1 day agoW5NW3S4S6S6S5S5S4S3S3S4SW5CalmNW3W3CalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS5S6S6S7S7SE5SE6SE5E4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmSW3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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