Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Trenton, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 6:46PM Saturday October 19, 2019 6:16 PM EDT (22:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:49PMMoonset 12:25PM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 627 Pm Edt Tue Oct 1 2019
.a strong Thunderstorm over the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 625 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots and small hail. This Thunderstorm was located over detroit river light, moving east at 20 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will be near, detroit river light around 630 pm edt. Other locations impacted by the strong Thunderstorm include stony point, estral beach and gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4192 8327 4195 8327 4197 8326 4200 8322 4203 8321 4204 8322 4205 8321 4204 8320 4211 8320 4210 8313 4203 8315 4197 8311 4196 8311 4190 8319
LCZ423 Expires:201910012300;;066930 FZUS73 KDTX 012227 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 627 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019 LCZ423-LEZ444-012300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trenton, MI
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location: 42.12, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191941
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
341 pm edt Sat oct 19 2019

Discussion
Expect quiet weather through the weekend and seasonably mild
temperatures through Monday before a strong low pressure system
lifts through the great lakes late Monday into Tuesday bringing
showers and windy conditions across the region. Broad upper level
trough will then hold over the great lakes through the week keeping
cool air in place with a couple more chances of showers.

First order of business is dealing with a weakening cold front
currently to our west extending from western ontario southward
through missouri. The parent low is well to the northwest of the
area over northern manitoba and appears to be tracking farther north
overnight. This will pull the best forcing northward while the front
continues its push east through lower mi. Models keep a narrow
ribbon of moisture and weakening fgen along the front tonight as the
front passes but lack of moisture and dry low levels owning to the
current ridge in place should result in mainly mid clouds advancing
over the area tonight. There could be a few drops of rain mainly
over the saginaw valley but a very low chance thus will leave out of
the forecast. Current regional radar loop shows the southern extent
of the front becoming fairly scattered which gives credit to the
continued weakening trend. The clouds will keep min temps a bit
higher tonight, 40s across the area, preventing the frost we've been
seeing in recent days.

High pressure builds back into the region Sunday as flow flips
southerly and shortwave ridge slide over the region ahead of the
deepening trough. This will lead to another pleasant fall day with
temps rising into the mid 60s and plenty of sunshine.

By Monday morning the strengthening trough will be over the central
plains with lee cyclogenesis taking place on the nose of a potent
140+ knot jet max. A shortwave jet MAX exiting the trough will align
north south Monday afternoon which will excite a short period of
decent warm air advection with a narrow corridor of moisture lifting
north of the cold front before it sweeps through Monday night. Pwats
look to jump from around the current 0.75" to possibly over 1.25".

The rapidly deepening surface low will track northeast through the
northern great lakes Monday night and Tuesday. This track will pull
the best forcing on the isentropic arm north of the region while the
instability gradient focuses south of the region. We're left in an
all too common position with a high shear low CAPE environment in
the vicinity of an occluding front splitting the two favorable
regions of forcing. Will advertise showers with embedded isolated
thunderstorms for now Monday and Monday night. Temperatures will be
mild Monday back into the mid 60s but gusty winds over 30 mph and
cloudy skies will take some enjoyment out of that even before the
rain starts in the afternoon.

Troughing then encompasses the region Tuesday through the remainder
of the week as the upper level low stalls over ontario quebec with
reinforcing shortwaves entering the trough to keep it over the
region. Highs will hover in the 50s with lows around 40. There is a
chance of showers on Tuesday as the trailing trough and deformation
region swings through lower mi. Boundary layer mixing and cold air
advection will lead to strong low level lapse rates aiding in
afternoon shower development. Westerly flow then looks to set up
heading into the latter part of the week before hints of the next
trough start taking shape heading into the weekend.

Marine
Fresh southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots
will diminish this evening and remain light and variable into Sunday
as a surface ridge builds east into the region. Southeast winds will
begin to increase by Monday morning as a low pressure system deepens
and lifts northward into the upper mississippi river valley and far
western basin of lake superior.

Winds will increase further late Monday into Monday night as this
system approaches. A gale watch has been issued as gusts over
portions of lake huron may very well push 40 knots by Monday
evening. Winds will then shift to the southwest overnight Monday
night with any remaining gale force gust potential focusing from
saginaw bay into central lake huron as the wind funnels up the bay.

Winds will then shift to the west and gradually weaken from Tuesday
night into Wednesday as the low pressure system lifts north to the
southern shores of hudson bay.

Hydrology
Strong low pressure will track into the northern great lakes on
Monday with a trailing cold front then pivoting east northeast
through the region Monday night. Widespread rainfall is expected
from Monday afternoon into Monday night as this system encroaches on
and then passes through the area. At this time, it appears that
rainfall amounts of three quarters of an inch will be quite possible
in many locations with local amounts of around an inch not out of
the question. Such rainfall totals should not cause any significant
flooding risks although ponding of water on area roadways and other
prone areas can be expected.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1255 pm edt Sat oct 19 2019
aviation...

vfr conditions are expected this forecast with cirrus thickening and
lowering, especially tonight into Sunday. Some lower clouds may work
into kmbs kfnt on Sunday (5-10kft) as southwest flow begins to take
shape on the back side of passing surface ridge. A period of patchy
fog will be possible again early Sunday morning as calm conditions
will exist within this ridge.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 20 mi77 min E 13 G 15 56°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 29 mi77 min SSE 8.9 G 11 58°F 1012.2 hPa (-2.4)
TWCO1 30 mi27 min ESE 16 G 19
45147 - Lake St Clair 33 mi77 min 56°F 53°F1 ft1012 hPa (-2.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 34 mi47 min SSE 8.9 G 12 61°F 1010.8 hPa39°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 38 mi77 min E 6 G 8.9 58°F 1012 hPa (-2.1)
CMPO1 40 mi107 min ENE 6 G 8 58°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 46 mi47 min E 8.9 G 11
AGCM4 48 mi47 min 57°F 54°F1011.7 hPa

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI1 mi22 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F43°F62%1011.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi24 minSSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F41°F55%1011.5 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI19 mi22 minESE 710.00 miFair57°F43°F61%1010.5 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI21 mi24 minSE 910.00 miFair60°F41°F50%1011.1 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI23 mi24 minSE 810.00 miFair58°F39°F50%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S4S4CalmE3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S4S6S6SE5SE5SE5SE6
1 day agoNW8
G14
NW5NW4W3NW3NW4N5NW4NW4NW3NW4NW5NW4N5NW4N3NW5N4NE4SW4W4S7S8S6
2 days agoNW15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.