Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence Park, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:18PM Saturday January 18, 2020 6:25 PM EST (23:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:32AMMoonset 12:35PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:202001181800;;126225 Fzus51 Kcle 180838 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 338 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147>149-181800- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 338 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south and increasing to 30 knots. Snow, rain with a chance of freezing rain this morning, then rain and snow this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..Southwest gales to 35 knots becoming west. Rain and snow likely in the evening, then snow overnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet building to 9 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots in the afternoon. Snow in the morning, then snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 37 degrees, off cleveland 38 degrees, and off erie 37 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence Park, PA
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location: 42.16, -80.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 182107 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 407 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure currently over Lake Huron will continue to move east toward New England tonight and on Sunday. High pressure from the northern Great Plains and upper Midwest will build southeast to the Ohio Valley Monday through Wednesday, lingering over the mid- Atlantic Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Precipitation has finally transitioned to all rain across the entire forecast area as temperatures have increased to the mid 30s to low 40s. For this reason, all Winter Weather Advisories for mixed precipitation have been cancelled.

Low pressure currently over northern lower Michigan will continue to move east tonight and tomorrow, bringing a cold front east across the area this evening. This will usher in a much colder airmass to the region. Scattered snow showers expected to develop behind the cold front with very gusty westerly winds. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely with locally higher amounts expected along the lakeshore, which is where a Wind Advisory is currently in effect.

With the cold airmass comes the development of lake effect snow. West-southwest winds develop tonight with temperatures aloft taking a nose dive. With the upper level trough providing synoptic scale lift and quality moisture, we will have an environment favorable for lake effect. A single band of lake effect snow is expected to develop with westerly steering flow late tonight and by early Sunday morning. This band will intensify during the day Sunday as lake-induced instability increases and cloud depths increase to a maximum of 8500 feet by early Sunday afternoon. The heaviest snowfall will occur over Erie County, PA during this period. Between 18 and 00 UTC Sunday the steering flow begins to shift to out of the northwest as the upper level trough swings down across Lake Erie. This will push the lake effect band inland and transition the event into more of a multi-band situation with the secondary snowbelt potentially having some impacts by Sunday night. Blowing snow will also be likely where wind gusts persist, especially likely tonight and early Sunday. Lake effect snow slowly diminished Sunday night as environmental moisture content decreases and synoptic scale conditions become less favorable.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A trough aloft exits our CWA to the south and east on Monday as a surface high pressure ridge builds from the Upper Midwest. Fair weather is expected across much of the region. However, a northerly low-level flow of cold air across Lake Erie will continue generating multiple bands of lake effect snow showers across northeast OH and northwest PA, especially in the primary and secondary snow belts. These lake effect snow showers will likely be light as a lowering subsidence inversion and relatively-dry airmass accompany the building ridge and limit lake-induced instability. Any snow accumulations should be less than one inch and afternoon highs should mainly reach the mid to upper 20's.

Monday night into Tuesday, high pressure aloft builds from the west as the accompanying surface high drifts from the Upper Midwest to central Ohio Valley and continues influencing our area. Fair weather will persist. However, a northerly flow of cold air across Lake Erie will continue directing multiple bands of lake effect snow across the primary and perhaps secondary snowbelt of northeast OH and northwest PA Monday night. These lake snow showers will likely end by late Tuesday morning as lake-induced CAPE continues to wane via the lowering subsidence inversion and a continued decrease in low- level moisture. Additional snow accumulations Monday night into Tuesday will probably be less than one inch. Morning lows mainly in the teens and afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 20's are expected on Tuesday.

High pressure aloft crests over our CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday as the surface high drifts toward the Mid-Atlantic states. This pattern will yield fair weather across our entire CWA. Low temperatures should reach the mid teens to lower 20's Tuesday night, while Wednesday afternoon's highs should primarily reach the mid to upper 30's as the surface high's clockwise, outward circulation begins to result in warm air advection.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Odds favor fair weather Wednesday night through Thursday night as southwesterly flow aloft develops over our region and we become located along the western periphery of the departing high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft. Simultaneously, a deepening trough should begin overspreading the central United States from the west. As flow aloft undergoes isentropic lift, a few snow showers may overspread areas west of I-71 Thursday night. At this point, little or no snow accumulation is expected.

Low temperatures should primarily reach the 20's Wednesday night. Highs should reach the lower to mid 40's in many places Thursday afternoon. Thursday night should have low temperatures mainly in the upper 20's to lower 30's as warm air advection continues.

Periods of widespread rain and/or snow are possible over our region Friday through Saturday as a surface low potentially moves from the Central Great Plains to southern Lower MI and becomes vertically- stacked with a mid- to upper-level low following a similar path. In addition, this low should allow a warm front to sweep northeastward over our CWA on Saturday. High temperatures should reach the 40's on both Friday and Saturday, while Friday night lows should reach the lower to mid 30's. Thus, the best potential for wet snow or a rain/snow mix exists Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday morning.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/. Mixed precipitation has ended across all TAF sites as rain overspreads the area with some isolated spots of snow. Wide variance in ceilings are expected but generally MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through this evening before transitioning to widespread MVFR tonight. Lake effect snow develops tonight, primarily impacting KERI.

Sustained southerly winds of around 20 knots will be gusting to 35 knots most of the day today. The cold front will move east across the area this evening forcing winds to veer to out of the west after 00 UTC. Winds remain elevated through the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible with lake effect snow on Sunday through Tuesday.

MARINE. Southerly surface winds veer to southwesterly by early evening as a cold front sweeps east over Lake Erie and the parent low deepens as it tracks from northern Lake Michigan to northern Lake Huron. Simultaneously, these winds will likely strengthen from about 25 knots to near 35 knots as waves build to the 7 to 11 foot range, especially in the central and eastern basins.

The surface low will continue deepening later this evening through Sunday as it advances toward the Canadian Maritimes. Southwesterly to westerly gales of 35 to 40 knots, gusting up to 50 knots, are likely this evening through Sunday morning. Waves as large as 10 to 14 feet are expected in the central and eastern basins, while a shorter fetch results in smaller waves farther west. Critically-low water levels are likely in the western basin this evening into Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, winds should be below gale- force and continue to ease over Lake Erie as these winds veer from westerly to northwesterly. In addition, waves should lower gradually and be no higher than 6 feet by the end of the day. Thus, the Gale Warning will likely have to be replaced with a Small Craft Advisory to account for the gradual improvement in conditions. Freezing spray will be a concern tonight into Sunday as the airmass cools over Lake Erie. However, refrained from issuing a Freezing Spray Warning since extreme icing is not expected.

Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger Monday morning as northwesterly winds continue to ease. Quieter marine conditions are then expected as winds back gradually from northwesterly to southwesterly Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Southwesterly winds should become more southerly on Thursday as the lake remains relatively-quiet.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for OHZ012>014-089. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ012-089. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for OHZ007>010. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ011. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for PAZ003. Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for PAZ001. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for PAZ001-002. MARINE . Low Water Advisory until 11 AM EST Sunday for LEZ142-143-162- 163. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ142>145-162>165. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LEZ147>149. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ147>149-167>169. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ146-166.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . Saunders SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka AVIATION . Saunders MARINE . Jaszka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 3 mi56 min SSW 11 G 21
NREP1 15 mi116 min SSW 20 G 32 39°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 44 mi26 min SSW 9.9 G 20 38°F 1001.1 hPa (-3.4)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 53 mi56 min WSW 17 G 24 50°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G22
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SE9
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NW22
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NW20
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G29
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NW16
G23
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N19
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NW16
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N11
NE11
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G17
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G15
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E8
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NE15
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SW22
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W26
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NW28
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W21
G29
NW26
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G28
NW18
W27
W31
NW23
G28
W27
NW23
G31
W28
W26
NW24
G29

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA9 mi35 minS 17 G 245.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F37°F86%1002.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E6E5CalmE4E4E4E4CalmSE7
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G36
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1 day agoNW11
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N11NW12
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N10N10N7N11N9N10N8NE8N7E6NE9NE6NE3N6NE7
2 days agoNE4NE3CalmCalmW5W7W15
G25
W9
G19
W11
G19
W17
G23
W15
G25
W11
G19
W14
G25
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.