Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence Park, PA

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 5:19PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:27 PM EST (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 11:02AMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:202101182115;;109022 Fzus51 Kcle 181427 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 927 Am Est Mon Jan 18 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147>149-182115- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 927 Am Est Mon Jan 18 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Wednesday evening...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers late this morning, then a chance of snow showers this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees, off cleveland 36 degrees, and off erie 36 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence Park, PA
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location: 42.16, -80.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 190015 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 715 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. A surface trough over Lake Erie will move northeast tonight. Low pressure over Lake Superior will move southeast through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and extend a cold front across the area. High pressure will enter from the southwest on Wednesday. A low pressure system will impact the Great Lakes region for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Short term models are suggesting lake effect snow band over Erie County in Pennsylvania will waver back and forth over the area and if this scenario holds true, snow accumulations in any one place will be limited compared to what has fallen. However, there is the possibility that the mid level flow will be the dominant flow and keep the band persistent. Model soundings support deep (up to 7000 feet) moisture across the area through much of this forecast period. See no reason at this time that snow will not continue to fall overnight as temperatures drop slightly into the upper 20s. This will slow the melting taking place in the snow pack and result in further accumulations. Will continue to monitor over the next couple hours to decide on what to do with current warning in effect.

For the rest of the area, expecting scattered snow showers and flurries to diminish overnight and remain cloudy across the area.

Temperatures will drop into the middle 20s (tad bit colder than this morning) across the area overnight.

Previous discussion .

Much of the attention for the near term forecast has been for Northwest PA today. A potent snow band developed over Lake Erie this morning and brought hours of moderate to heavy snow to Erie County PA through this afternoon. This band is still bringing impactful snowfall to portions of Erie County but is pivoting northward as a slight low-level ridge axis enters the Lake Erie basin and slightly enhanced southerly flow is allowing for the band to lift over Lake Erie and into western New York. The thermodynamic environment is still marginal across the eastern Lake Erie region, but strong surface convergence seems to be the main forcing mechanism to keep this band going. With that, expect the moderate to heavy snow to only last for the next few hours, mainly in northeast Erie County PA and expect only 1 to 3 more inches with perhaps an isolated 4 near the NY State Line. Elsewhere, some scattered snow showers remain across the region as a weak wave of vorticity moves through the area. Accumulations will be light and less than an inch for most folks. An inch is possible downwind of Lake Erie in NE OH/Crawford Co PA where snow may try to persist a bit longer into the evening. For the overnight, trends are drier generally speaking. There will be lake effect snow near NW PA but most of the action should be over the lake but have some likely PoPs into the Erie area for glancing showers further south. A weak wave is expected to move through the Ohio Valley, but snow appears to remain further south where the better jet energy will stay and have only slight chance PoPs at best. Temperatures through the overnight will not fall all that much just into the upper 20s. The forecast area appears to remain between low pressure systems for Tuesday and will keep the forecast mostly dry with the exception for some scattered lake effect snow showers in NW PA. Widespread cloud cover will remain across the area with good low level moisture remaining in place and temperatures will only marginally rise into the low 30s.

The next forecast concern for the area will be on Tuesday night. A low will move southeast through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and extend a cold front across the area. This front will allow for snow to become focused on Ohio and PA once again as mean flow will shift to the west then northwest. With the front itself, expect a good push of snow to enter the region with convergence and low level lift over NE OH and NW PA, all coinciding with the entrance of a mid-level vorticity max across the region. Then, with the more favorable flow off Lake Erie, expect lake effect/enhancement to return as snow persists later on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The thermodynamic environment over Lake Erie on Tuesday night seems better than the environment that brought the snow today into NW PA. 850 mb temperatures will cool to -10 to -12 degrees Celsius, resulting in lake sfc-850 delta Ts of 13 to 14 C, which should allow for some conditional instability across the region and more intense bands of snow should develop into NE OH and NW PA on Tuesday night into Wednesday. With increasing confidence in snow with multiple forcing mechanisms and additional confidence with recent guidance, have bumped QPF and snow totals for Tuesday night with a maximum of 4 to 6 inches in Erie County PA and then 2 to 4 inches in NE OH and Crawford County PA. At this point, it seems likely that another winter weather headline will need to be issued for portions of PA for Tuesday night and perhaps additional areas into OH. With ongoing headlines for PA, won't issue anything with this package and maintain the mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. The upper-level trough will largely be east of our forecast area with the western edge of vorticity maxima located over northwest Pennsylvania and eastern Lake Erie by 12Z Wednesday. While coverage of snow will be decreasing through the day Wednesday, there could still be some intense snow bands during the morning hours despite the loss of upper-level forcing and deeper moisture. This is because a cold airmass behind the trough will result in conditional instability and fairly steep low-level lapse rates, especially below 850 mb. This opportunity for localized higher snow rates will mainly be reserved for the morning hours across parts of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. While transitioning to a more traditional lake effect snow, coverage and intensity of snow will gradually diminish due to decreasing inversion heights and warming temperatures aloft as an upper-level ridge approaches from the west. The ridge will works its way east across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening with any lake effect snow out of the area by late Wednesday evening. Additional snow accumulations during the day Wednesday are expected to be around an inch or so with locally higher amounts possible where more intense snow showers/bands linger.

Meanwhile, an upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Canadian Prairies on Wednesday to eastern Ontario by Thursday. The associated occluded low will move from Lake Winnipeg on Wednesday to northeast of Lake Superior by late Thursday, weakening a by around 10 mb from ~985mb to ~995mb. This will result in a weak front, very quickly followed by a weak cold/occluded front bringing light rain/snow showers late Wednesday night and during the day Thursday, mainly for northwest Pennsylvania.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be rather chilly with highs at or below 30. Temperatures will actually increase Wednesday night with the aforementioned warm front, allowing temperatures to increase into the upper 30s to low 40s for much of the area Thursday afternoon, likely the warmest day of the entire forecast period. Temperatures decrease back into the 20s Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Northwest flow that develops Thursday night is expected to continue through the long term forecast period, with below normal temperatures expected. The aforementioned low continues to move eastward to the New England Coast by Friday. Several upper-level shortwave troughs will move southeast across the region through the weekend, bringing cold air aloft across the Great Lakes region. This will result in an extended period of lake effect snow from through at least Saturday. However, there is some uncertainty with the evolution of shortwave troughs and intensity of cold air aloft, resulting in uncertainty with duration, intensity, and location of lake effect snow. Most models have at least 12-24 hours of 850mb temperatures of -14 to -16 C with northwest flow, which could produce a moderate amount of snowfall for much of the lake effect belt over the weekend. Details will become clearer in the coming days. Upper-level ridging and subsequent surface high pressure is expected to build into the region Saturday night and Sunday. Uncertainty is high for Monday onward, but many models are hinting at a deepening low pressure system somewhere in the central CONUS bringing precipitation to our area.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/. Ceilings across the local area continue to struggle to get above MVFR levels. Lowest ceilings occur in the persistent snow band over Erie, Pennsylvania and in scattered snow showers across the local area. Not expecting much in the way of improvement in the ceiling department but visibilities should improve as scattered snow showers wane over much of the area. Remaining snow should become confined to the lakeshore of Erie County in Pennsylvania. Big question is how much movement of the band will take place or whether the band remains parked through tomorrow. Expectation is the band will waver back and forth limiting accumulations as of right now. Winds through the period should be 10 knots or less and waver between 230 and 260 degrees. Exception will be at Erie where winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots later tonight into tomorrow.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible through Wednesday morning in the northeast. Non-VFR possible Friday and Friday night and then in the northeast Saturday.

MARINE. Wind speeds on Lake Erie are in a bit of a lull right now but are expected to increase to near 20 knots later this evening. Southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots are expected to last through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory in effect for nearshore zones east of Willowick through 00Z Thursday, with nearshore zones between Vermilion and Willowick not beginning until Tuesday evening. Winds dip below 20 knots Wednesday evening as they become more northwesterly but that will be fairly shortlived as they are expected to strengthen again with southwest winds Wednesday night onward.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001-002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ145-146.

SYNOPSIS . Lombardy/Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Saunders LONG TERM . Saunders AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 3 mi58 min WSW 15 G 24
NREP1 15 mi118 min W 7 G 15 32°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 44 mi28 min W 15 G 18 34°F 1013.3 hPa (+2.1)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 53 mi58 min SW 8 G 13

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA9 mi37 minVar 66.00 miLight Snow32°F26°F79%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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