Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence Park, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:55PM Thursday July 16, 2020 12:56 PM EDT (16:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:31AMMoonset 4:22PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:202007160815;;912421 Fzus51 Kcle 160208 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 1008 Pm Edt Wed Jul 15 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez148-149-160815- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 1008 Pm Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Overnight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 79 degrees, off cleveland 75 degrees, and off erie 76 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence Park, PA
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location: 42.16, -80.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 161407 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1007 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move northeast towards the area this afternoon, with a warm front lifting northeast across the area. The low's associated cold front will move southeast across the area tonight into Friday morning. This front will linger south of the area Friday night before lifting back north as a warm front on Saturday. Another cold front approaches the area on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Surface temperatures continue to increase across the area well into the 70s and lower 80s across the area. A surface low pressure was located just west of Toledo at this time with a stationary front extending east-northeast over Lake Erie. The low is expected to continue to move along the frontal boundary and gradually weaken. A trailing cold front will slide east across the area this afternoon. Some breaks in the overcast are occurring over the eastern half of the area at this time allowing or some increased heating ahead of the line of showers moving east across the area. Once this narrow line moves through, temperatures should continue to rise in the warm sector. Some convection continues to develop at this time from central Lake Erie south to Crawford County in Pennsylvania; albeit weak. Destabilization will increase likelihood for additional convection to develop through the morning into the afternoon. Looking at highs in the middle to possibly upper 80s today over the eastern half of the area ahead of the cold front. Further west, lower to middle 80s should be the rule. Will continue to monitor storms as they develop during the day.

Original discussion . A vigorous shortwave trough is making its way east across northern Indiana and will move across Ohio today. Enhanced southwesterly is expected aloft with a strong low-level jet (at least for this time of the year) of 30-40 knots expected across the eastern portion of our forecast area this afternoon. At the surface, a low is located over west- central Indiana, which is expected to make its way towards Lake Erie. The associated warm front will lift north to Lake Erie, where it will sit through today.

Behind this warm front, a warm, moist airmass will be in place, with dew points generally in the low 70s being observed across the southern half of Indiana right now. South to southwesterly winds will advect this warm, moist airmass into our region. There is considerable spread in model guidance on how much moisture will reach our area with the GFS/NAM having dew points in the mid 70s, while other models, such as the HRRR, being a little more pessimistic, with dew points much lower in the mid to upper 60s. More realistically, based on the airmass we are observing to our southwest, dew points somewhere in the middle (lower 70s) are to be expected.

Ongoing widespread rain showers with some embedded isolated thunder is moving east across northwest Ohio and is expected to overspread much of the area at some point this morning. Most hi-res models have at least some scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies lingering into early this afternoon. Southwesterly advection should allow for some warming during the day but with very few breaks in cloud cover this morning, it remains a question of how much radiational heating we get to build instability. The combination of uncertainty with day-time heating and model spread for moisture advection presents a large degree of uncertainty with how much instability builds into the region this afternoon. Confidence is high that at least 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE develops this afternoon with a high end potential for 2500 J/kg if we get higher dew points (mid 70s) and some breaks in cloud cover.

Due to the enhanced southwest flow, moderate shear will be present, especially in the low-levels. Deep layer shear of 30 to 40 knots will be more than sufficient for organized severe convection, especially for far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Initially discrete cells and supercells could be possible this afternoon, eventually growing upscale into clusters and a line of storms. High precipitable water (1.75-2.00 inches), DCAPE values, and max theta-e differences suggest that damaging winds will likely be the primary weather hazard. However, high 0-1 km shear of 20-25 knots, 50-100 0-1km m^2/s^2 storm-relative helicity (SRH), and significant tornado parameter (STP) of 1-2 suggests an elevated risk for tornadoes, especially for northwest Pennsylvania. HREF output from the 00Z run is also concerning, which shows a bullseye in the updraft helicity tracks (a product that shows the potential for rotating thunderstorms) over northwest Pennsylvania.

Due the reasonings mentioned above, the Storm Prediction Center has included mainly the eastern portion of our forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with the primary weather hazards being damaging winds and tornadoes, though isolated large hail can't be ruled out. The greatest threat area will be far northeast Ohio (e.g. Ashtabula and Trumbull counties) and northwest Pennsylvania. Best timing for severe thunderstorms looks to be between 17Z and 23Z this afternoon/evening.

Though a lesser threat, the flash flooding risk cannot be overlooked. Most model guidance has high precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches, which would result in highly efficient rain. NAEFS also have mean integrates water vapor transport greater than the 97th percentile and mean meridional 850mb wind greater than the 99.5th percentile, meaning that moisture transport via the low- level jet will be very high. Moisture conditions should also be somewhat preconditioned by the overnight/morning convection as well. There are a few things working against the chance for flooding, which includes fast storm motions of 30-40 knots expected and the forward propagation of storm complexes, which should prevent training of storms. The Weather Prediction Center has included much of our region in a marginal risk for flash flooding, which is primarily due to the moist airmass in place. However, for flash flooding to occur, we would likely need some mesoscale boundaries to induce training of storms over a location.

A trailing cold front attached to the aforementioned surface low will move southeast across the area, though the cold air advection behind it will be fairly weak. Some scattered showers could linger into early tonight. As showers and clouds clear out and winds become light, patchy fog could be possible where clouds clear out, which is most likely for northwest Ohio. For Friday, weak high pressure builds in, which will result in mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure builds over the region Friday night with the frontal boundary stalling over southern Ohio. This boundary returns as a warm front on Saturday with low chance POP's returning, especially for the southwestern CWA. Still looks as if Sunday will be a very humid day but there is more uncertainty about how much cloud cover will exist to limit the heating. So we still expect a HOT day with heat index values around 100. Still could be headlines for at least the western CWA if convection holds off long enough into the day.

Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 80's to mid 90's. It will be the most humid on Sunday. Lows in the 60's Friday night. Warmer Saturday and Sunday nights with lows in the mid 60's to mid 70's.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Lots of uncertainty on where the dissipating frontal boundary will stall for Monday through Wednesday. Chances are that it settles to central Ohio with showers and thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday near and south of a line from Findlay to Youngstown. By Wednesday there is NO model consensus except that there will be a trough moving across the central/eastern Great Lakes. So expect to see the forecast change as Monday through Wednesday moves into the short term period.

The area should continue to see temperatures above seasonal averages.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. Scattered to isolated showers occurring mainly near western TAF sites this morning. Despite lightning not being observed at the moment, can't rule out some isolated thunder developing later this morning at western TAF sites, though confidence still isn't high enough to include at this time. Redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms expected later this afternoon, though timing will be very tough to forecast for. TAF sites with the greatest chance for thunderstorms will be at KYNG and KERI. Brief heavy rain will accompany storms while some storms could become severe with strong wind gusts possible.

For tonight, some showers could linger into the early evening hours before fully exiting the area. Many hi-res models are hitting low ceilings pretty hard for tonight, particularly at KYNG. LIFR stratus will be possible at KYNG with MVFR ceilings possible at KERI, KCAK, KCLE, and KMFD. Low visibilities with patchy fog could also be possible late tonight.

Winds currently out of the southwest will veer to out of the southwest as a warm front lifts northeast across the area. Southwest winds expected to be 10-13 knots with gusts to 20 knots expected. These winds become light and variable overnight tonight.


Outlook . Occasional non-VFR possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.

MARINE. Low pressure moves along a warm front that will hug the south shore of Lake Erie today. Winds will be variable until the low passes and drags a cold front across the region. Winds become westerly overnight. High pressure builds over the lake on Friday then persists into Saturday. This will keep southwesterly winds going into Saturday with a lake breeze developing during the early afternoon. A cold front will sag southward toward the lake on Sunday with increasing southwest to west winds ahead of it.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . Lombardy/Saunders SHORT TERM . MM LONG TERM . MM AVIATION . Saunders MARINE . MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45167 5 mi176 min S 18 G 21 77°F 75°F
NREP1 15 mi86 min S 15 G 22 78°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 44 mi56 min SSE 11 G 18 77°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.3)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 53 mi86 min SSE 8 G 13 95°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA9 mi65 minS 13 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F68°F63%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6N6NE6N5NE8NE10NE7NE5E4CalmSE4SE6S7S7S11S9S11SE12
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1 day ago3NW6NW7NW6W7NW5NW4NW3CalmCalmS4CalmS4SE6SE7SW4S3S3S5S8S3S64NW6
2 days agoNW10NW10NW10W9
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W8W8W8W6W7NW7NW6NW7NW4NW4NW5S4S5S6S4SW6W4W53NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.