Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence Park, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:23PM Friday September 20, 2019 8:53 PM EDT (00:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:04PMMoonset 12:14PM Illumination 56% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:201909202015;;075362 Fzus51 Kcle 201342 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 942 Am Edt Fri Sep 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez146>149-202015- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 942 Am Edt Fri Sep 20 2019
This afternoon..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees, off cleveland 71 degrees, and off erie 70 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence Park, PA
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location: 42.16, -80.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 202348
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
748 pm edt Fri sep 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the carolinas continues to extend back into
the great lakes region. A cold front will enter the great lakes
region on Sunday and push the area of high pressure off the east
coast. The cold front clears the area on Monday and high
pressure returns to the ohio valley in its wake on Tuesday.

Near term through Saturday night
Update... Adjusted hourly temps which are running a bit higher
than forecast in places. No other changes.

Original... The area will remain under the influence of high
pressure through the duration of the near term forecast. On the
back side of the high, some elevated moisture has advected into
the region allowing for scattered cumulus development this
afternoon. With temperatures in the mid 80s, a fair amount of
instability resides in the region and a couple areas of robust
cumulus have turned into a pop-up shower. Have continued a
slight chance pop through the evening for the southern portion
of the forecast area, where the more expansive CU field remains.

Clouds will be hit or miss overnight and much of the guidance
was low on the high temperatures for today, so will go with
overnight lows a bit above guidance in the 60s.

A good surge of warm air will enter the region on Saturday, as
850 mb temperatures increase to 16-17 degrees celsius. With a
fair amount of low-level moisture remaining over the region,
this warm air advection may spur addition cloud and rain shower
development on Saturday and have a mix of slight chance to
chance pops during the day on Saturday. The coverage won't be a
wash out, but believe that there will be more showers to contend
with than this afternoon. Temperatures have the potential to be
warmer than today with highs well into the 80s, but have lowered
temps a bit from the previous forecast with the cloud and rain
potentially limiting highs in a couple spots. Saturday night
appears dry with clouds scattering out over the region.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
The main feature for the short term forecast period will be a
cold front that will enter the forecast area late Sunday night
into Monday. Ahead of the cold front, the area will become well
mixed with southerly winds to 30-35 mph possible. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side well into the 80s across much of
the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the
region with the frontal passage on Sunday night into Monday and
the general timing for rain appears to be NW ohio around dusk
and the remainder of north central and northeast ohio sometime
after midnight. The unfavorable timing for convection will limit
both thunder and severe chances and have just a slight chance
thunder mentioned at this time. The front passes the region from
west to east on Monday and high pressure builds in from the west
on Monday night. Have quickly diminishing pops over the region
with highs on Monday likely early in the day in the lower 70s
and lows in the 50s.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
The beginning of the long term forecast period appears quiet
with high pressure overhead. Temperatures will remain slightly
above normal in the 70s. The next system approaches the area on
Wednesday night into Thursday as a shortwave trough enters the
great lakes region. Haven't hit pops too hard yet at this time,
other than a mid-range chance. Temperatures will likely trend
high each day during the long term forecast period.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions will continue across the area through much of the
overnight. Could see early morning fog mist given the increase
in dewpoints so continued with just a couple hours MVFR
visibilities around dawn in a tempo group. For Saturday,
guidance did bring in MVFR CIGS mainly southeast inland but for
now, confidence is not high enough to warrant. Could see
scattered convection on Saturday however and would expect
restrictions in any weather.

Outlook Non-vfr possible in showers thunderstorms Sunday
night through Monday.

Marine
The lake remains quiet for the next 36 hours or so as the lake
remains on the periphery of high pressure over the carolinas.

Winds will remain light and variable out of the east to
southeast tonight before shifting around to the south on
Saturday. A cold front approaches the basin on Sunday and will
greatly increase winds over the basin with sustained winds
around 15 to 20 knots and gusts potentially up to 25 knots. The
front crosses the lake on Monday and winds will shift around to
the west and then northwest and waves will build on the
nearshore waters on Monday into Tuesday. A small craft advisory
headline may be needed at this time. High pressure wobbles in
from the west on Tuesday and winds should begin to subside over
the lake, albeit from the west the through the middle of the
week.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sefcovic
near term... Tk sefcovic
short term... Sefcovic
long term... Sefcovic
aviation... Tk
marine... Sefcovic


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 3 mi59 min E 2.9 G 4.1
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 44 mi53 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 70°F 1021.6 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA9 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair72°F61°F68%1021.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9S10SE11S12S12S11
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S11S12S10S9S7S6S8SE5N6N4N4NE7NE4Calm
1 day agoE6SE6SE7SE9SE8SE5S10SE12S13
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2 days agoNE7E7E6SE5E3SE7SE7SE4SE6SE6E5SE6S8SE7SE7E9E12NE6NE8
G14
NE12N9NE9NE8E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.