Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:23AM||Sunset 5:15PM||Tuesday January 26, 2021 1:19 PM PST (21:19 UTC)||Moonrise 3:01PM||Moonset 5:59AM||Illumination 98%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plush, ORHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Reno, NV  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KREV 261705 AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 905 AM PST Tue Jan 26 2021
UPDATE. Quick update this morning to upgrade the Winter Storm Warning in the eastern Sierra (Tahoe-Mono) to a Blizzard Warning. The first part of the storm will have the strongest winds and heaviest rates. Could also see thundersnow along the Narrow Cold-Frontal Snowband. Snowfall rates could reach 4"/hr for a period of time Wednesday morning.
Blizzard conditions likely won't last through the whole event, and may be downgraded. However, given the intense rates and winds at the onset, travel will likely become extremely difficult if not impossible quickly.
Elsewhere, we increased the snow amounts for the Sierra Front as well. This is looking like the biggest snowstorm in many years for the valleys.
Bottom line: Be where you need to be by sundown today--you might be there for a couple of days. Have a back-up plan for school/work/childcare/etc. X/Dawn
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. /Issued 340 AM PST Tue Jan 26 2021/
Expect icy roads into this morning in the wake of yesterday's snowfall. The next winter storm is expected to bring very heavy snow amounts and whiteout conditions for the Sierra with wind and heavy snow impacts for western Nevada tonight though Thursday. Active and moist onshore flow will keep light snow accumulating in the Sierra through the weekend with a another winter storm possible for the start of next week.
SHORT TERM .
This forecaster's drive to work last night was rather dicey with very slick conditions on secondary routes as well as portions of I-580 through Reno. Two issues were experienced: snow compacted into ice on secondary routes with exacerbating light snowfall further lubricating road surfaces, and spots that melted yesterday froze over creating patches of black ice on I-580. Even driving well under the speed limit was not enough to keep my vehicle driving straight. With cold temperatures overnight, expect difficult travel conditions for this morning's commute especially for portions of South Reno and the North Valleys. Plan for delays.
.Tonight through Thursday Night.
If you haven't done so yet, you may want to go over your hazardous weather plans and check your supplies; there won't be a lot of time for preparations as the next storm arrives tonight and will continue through Thursday night. This storm remains projected to be a major headache for the region and will bring heavy snowfall to the Sierra as well as portions of western Nevada.
* Impacts: Ground travel will be difficult, if not impossible, at times, especially in the Sierra. Expect road closures with whiteout conditions. If there are spots that outperform the current forecast, snow loading on rooftops could become an issue. There could be periods of near whiteout conditions in western Nevada as well. Even a walk outside can become deadly in these conditions. Aviation interests can expect periods of very little visibility and low ceilings. Turbulence will also be a factor with strong ridge level gusts exceeding 125 mph.
* Sierra Snow: No big changes here as totals will measure in feet. 1 to 3 feet for valleys and possibly exceeding 6 feet in the higher terrain. Heaviest rates are expected between 10PM tonight through 10 AM Wednesday morning with another extended burst Wednesday evening through around noon Thursday. However, even lower rates will amount to significant accumulations.
* Western Nevada Precipitation: The biggest uncertainty lies here, how much snow will accumulate along the Sierra Front? Snow levels are projected to rise to 4000-4500 feet during the daytime hours Wednesday and Thursday suggesting lower snow ratios and a period of at least rain/snow mix. However, precipitation rates could drag levels back to valley floors. Also, global models are now producing a substantially higher amount of QPF along the Sierra Front. This pushes the error bounds towards higher precipitation amounts and subsequently more snowfall. As such, no major shifts occurred in the official forecast amounts: generally 4 to 10 inches with 10 to 20 inches above 5000 feet, but there is now about a 20% chance for around 18 inches of snow in the vicinity of Reno and up to 30% chance for around 18 inches in the Carson/Minden areas.
* Gut check: With the information above and impulses of precipitation occurring over the nocturnal hours, higher totals around Reno could edge towards 12 inches while totals in the Carson/Minden areas will precipitate harder and could range 8 to 15 inches. The bottom line is that there will be significant snowfall amounts that will cause travel difficulties around the communities of western Nevada.
* Winds: Strong wind gusts are expected mainly Wednesday as the jet noses through the region. Ridgetops in the Sierra could see gusts exceeding 125 mph with 30-45 mph in Sierra valleys. As precipitation lessens a little during the day Wednesday, gusts 30-60 mph could occur along the Sierra Front. Any falling snow still occurring will make visibility a concern for those traveling.
Low pressure finally drops south of the region early Friday morning allowing for conditions to taper down. However, there is room for some adjustments in the future to linger precipitation if the low's trajectory changes or slows a little. A slower exit would promote wrap-around snow for portions of western Nevada with potential for bonus accumulations Thursday night into Friday. Boyd
LONG TERM . Friday through the start of February .
Moderate to heavy snow showers early Friday morning will begin to taper down through the day as the winter storm tracks eastward out of the region. While the weather will be momentarily less active Friday evening, there will be another weaker reinforcing wave which will yield an additional few inches of snowfall in the Sierra during the day on Saturday.
Sunday may be a brief lull in terms of snowfall;however, winds across the northern Sierra may start becoming gusty again ahead of the next incoming storm Monday night into Tuesday. Areas of blowing snow and low visibility will be possible across higher elevations in the Sierra considering the big snows that are incoming.
The next storm on tap is targeting the Monday/Tuesday timeframe and looks to have an associated weak to potentially moderate atmospheric river moisture tap. While not as strong as our current pending storm, it does have the potential to drop a few more feet of snow across the Sierra. The main difference with this system is that it looks to be a shorter duration system with about a 24 hours of peak snowfall vs the 48+ hours with the incoming storm. It also looks a bit warmer so might not be as good of a set-up to see big snow totals for western Nevada.
By Wednesday, the storm should be exiting the area and the weather should start calming down some as upper level ridging starts becoming established across the eastern Pacific. The upper ridge doesn't look to build quite inland so we may still be subject to colder, slider type systems along with some very cold nights with ample fresh snow on the ground. Fuentes
Major winter storm expected to impact the Sierra and western Nevada Tuesday night through Friday morning.
Sierra Terminals: * Snow after about 10pm-midnight with the first wave of +SN through Wed morning (2-3"/hr rates possible) followed by a second wave of +SN Wed evening into Thursday. Up to 2-3 feet of storm total snow. * 2-3 day period of IFR/LIFR conditions through Thursday night. * Gusty winds combined with light/fluffy snow will lead to periods of whiteout and near zero visibility.
W.Nevada Terminals: * Intermittent rounds of heavy snow and gusty southerly winds and LLWS early Wednesday morning. * First snowfall possible after midnight with +SN possible through about 18z Wed before lightening in the afternoon and a rain/snow mix possible before changing to snow Wed night. * Snowfall rates of 1"/hour possible 10z-18Z Wed. Light, fluffy snow may yield low visibility due to blowing snow.
WIND: Ridgetop winds will begin to increasing through the afternoon with gusts reaching 50kts by mid-afternoon and over 90kts after 06z Wed. At the surface, SE winds will strengthen Wednesday with moderate/severe turbulence, mountain wave activity, and LLWS expected. Fuentes
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday NVZ001.
Blizzard Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Friday NVZ002.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Thursday NVZ005.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Thursday NVZ003.
CA . Blizzard Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Friday CAZ072.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Friday CAZ071.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Thursday CAZ070.
Blizzard Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Friday CAZ073.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno
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|Lake County Airport, OR||21 mi||26 min||S 15 G 21||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||27°F||18°F||69%||1009.6 hPa|
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Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
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