Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Scituate, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:12PM Monday December 9, 2019 3:14 AM EST (08:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:50PMMoonset 5:02AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 116 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through Tuesday morning...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..S winds around 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft, except 3 to 5 ft at the outer harbor entrance. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, decreasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers, snow showers and sleet likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Snow showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu through Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A slow moving cold front approaches from the west Mon into Tue. Gale force S to sw winds are expected late Mon afternoon into early Tue. The cold front sweeps across the waters Tue night with a secondary cold front moving through Wed afternoon. Strong high pres moves into the region Thu and Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scituate, MA
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location: 42.2, -70.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 090735 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 235 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Milder air will push into the region today, accompanied by showers today into Tuesday. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, ushering in much colder air that will likely change rain to snow and linger into Wednesday with accumulations possible. Cold and dry into Friday before temperatures begin to moderate Friday night. Next system brings a period of rain by the weekend, with temperatures trending above normal.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/. 235 AM Update:

* Spotty light icing possible early this morning *

Initial batch of light rain showers/sprinkles lifting through CT as best seen on KOKX WSR-88D may bring light icing to southern parts of Hartford, Tolland, and Windham Counties early this morning and perhaps adjacent parts of western RI as well. Not looking for much more than 0.01" of rain but this could be enough to produce a thin coating of ice on roads, especially given recent couple of days of very cold weather.

* Flood Potential *

Southerly flow has allowed temperatures to rise slowly through the night across most of SNE. High-res models are in good agreement that more widespread showers will arrive between 7 and 10 AM. Heavier rainfall should hold off until this afternoon as larger scale lift increases ahead of mid level short wave and nose of LLJ brings increasing PWATs to over 1 inch, with likely focus south of Mass Pike (and especially near South Coast). Ensembles indicate system is somewhat anomalous in its southerly wind component and moisture (generally 2-3 SD), but not excessively so.

Temperatures rising into 50s, combined with high dew points and strong S/SW winds, will lead to rapid snowmelt across much of SNE especially in CT, RI, and eastern MA where NOHRSC modeling erodes much of existing snowpack. Water content in these areas is no more than 1" on average, so while overall flood threat is low for rivers/streams per MMEFS hydrologic ensembles, there is a higher potential for urban and poor drainage flooding which will affect afternoon commute. Not planning on issuing Flood Watches at this time.

* Strong Winds *

925 mb winds increase to more than 60kt this afternoon across SE New England. Forecast soundings show strong inversion between warmer air aloft and cooler air at surface, which will limit true gust potential. However, momentum alone should be able to realize about 2/3 of that, meaning max gusts up to 40kt seem reasonable. It looks marginal to reach Wind Advisory criteria on Cape Cod/Islands (may be more likely on sustained winds) but since impact would be fairly low we will hold off on any wind headlines, aside from marine as detailed below.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Heavier rainfall continues through early tonight, again focused south of Mass Pike where we have larger scale lift from both low level and upper level jets, as well as strong low level convergence and deep moisture. Activity should subside overnight as short wave moves offshore.

Strong southerly flow will keep temperatures nearly steady tonight, in 50s for much of SNE, which will lead to further erosion of snowpack. Per NOHRSC modeling it's likely that we lose all of the snowpack by Tuesday morning except across the hills of western/central MA and northern CT. Expect continued urban/poor drainage flood threat.

Other concern is for areas of dense fog, especially across interior where deeper snowpack is in place.

Next round of showers arrives later Tue afternoon with approach of cold front. By that time PWATs are on the decrease and moisture convergence is less impressive, so not anticipating significant rainfall. We spend most of day in warm sector so despite thick cloud cover highs will top out in the 50s to some lower 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. 345 PM update .

Highlights .

* Rain early Tues nite changes to a period of accumulating snow (potentially plowable in interior and urban corridor) overnight into Wed. Increasing confidence for adverse impact to Wed AM commute. * Cold and dry Wed nite through Fri. Moderating temperature and moisture levels Friday night.

* Next system for the weekend, with rainy conditions and above- normal temps. Details .

Tuesday night into Wednesday:

Colder air rushes southeastward Tuesday night, and as at least sheared-out mid-level vort max ripples northeastward from the central Appalachians, will be looking at rain changing to wet snow on the cold side of the cold front.

Did note more ECMWF Ensemble members indicating snow for Tuesday night into Wednesday than 24 hours ago, with ensemble probabilities for 3" or more of snow in the 24-hour period 18z Tue - 18z Wed now up to 50% across western MA/western Hartford County, the hills in central MA and Tolland County eastward into the northern Providence suburbs. Recent trends in the GFS have also trended snowier in this period. Global models show anomalously strong mid and upper level jets (~ 100 kts at 500 mb, 150 kts at 250 mb, with Southern New England positioned in the favorable equatorward entrance region of each jet), and there are hints in the guidance at some bands (axis of 850 mb -EPV, some though unfocused FGen @ 850) during the overnight hrs.

What remains uncertain is the timing of the changeover, forecast liquid-equivalent precip and the northwestern extent of accumulating snows. Each of the above factors renders confidence in snow accumulations at low to moderate levels. Did note that most models have again increased QPF in this period, though there may be a sharp cutoff in precip N/W of the Mass Pike and especially north of northern MA/Route 2 corridor. WPC's Day-3 accumulation seems fairly reasonable as far as a first-cut at accumulations goes.

In spite of stated uncertainties, do think confidence is increasing in potential for an adversely impacted Wednesday morning commute for at least a part of the region, especially across the central part of the interior (Hartford/Springfield, Worcester/Providence into the I- 95 corridor). This is roughly where axis of greatest liquid- equivalent QPF seems to lie, though some variability in models exists to be re-evaluated with forthcoming guidance. Pavement's also apt to be wet at onset and sharply colder temperatures filtering that could freeze this before or during the period of accumulating snow, the potential for slippery travel into the AM commute remains a possibility.

Wednesday Night through Friday Night:

1040+ mb high becomes anchored across much of New England. Quite chilly and dry through Thursday night with 850 mb temps in the -10 to -15C range. Will show highs in the 20s to near freezing, with lows in the teens. A few single digit lows are possible across northern MA.

Southerly warm advection pattern commences Friday into Friday night as high pressure shifts into the Canadian Maritimes. Temperatures and moisture levels should begin to recover. Will see increased clouds into the nighttime hrs Friday night, and while the GFS brings in warm frontal precip late, likely too dry to support PoPs higher than low Chance.

Saturday into Sunday:

Weekend remains unsettled with the next chance of significant precip by the weekend, though models continue to deviate on timing. As mentioned, the GFS brings rain in as soon as Friday night, while the ECMWF is more into late Saturday into Saturday night, and the Canadian GEM is still slower than the ECMWF. Could be a decent rain maker for most of southern New England, with another round of gusty southerly winds across the waters.

A return to above-normal temps looks likely for the weekend with 850 mb temps rising into the mid/upper single digits Celsius. Will show highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s with clouds and rain likely accompanying the warmest temps, though potential for even warmer with cloud breaks.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/ . High confidence.

06Z TAF Update:

MVFR CIGS across much of interior and around Cape Cod will slowly expand into RI and eastern MA through daybreak. Conditions then steadily lower to IFR/LIFR as showers arrive near KBDL around 12Z and reach eastern MA coast by 14Z. Lowest conditions expected across interior due to presence of deep snowpack. These low conditions persist through tonight before some improvement Tue.

LLWS this morning inland due to light winds at surface and 2kft winds 19040kt. Later today and tonight focus of LLWS shifts into RI and eastern MA as southerly low level jet increases to 50-60kt at 2kft.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, SHSN likely, PL likely, FZRA likely.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tuesday/ . High confidence.

** Gale Warnings for most of waters through Tue morning **

Increasing S/SW winds today between high pressure well offshore and warm front lifting north of waters. Onset of Gale force gusts is early to mid afternoon, with peak gusts of 35-40kt expected from late afternoon through tonight, before winds fall below Gale force later Tue morning.

Steadier showers arrive this morning, with heaviest rain this afternoon through early tonight. Patches of dense fog possible mainly on south coastal waters. More in way of scattered showers Tue before next round of steadier rainfall arrives later in the day.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers likely, patchy fog.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers likely, snow showers likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ236.

SYNOPSIS . EVT/JWD NEAR TERM . JWD SHORT TERM . JWD LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . EVT/JWD MARINE . EVT/JWD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 11 mi85 min S 19 G 23 44°F 47°F3 ft1025 hPa (-1.8)38°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 20 mi75 min 42°F 41°F1024.5 hPa (-1.8)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 24 mi131 min WSW 19 G 23 43°F 46°F4 ft1024.5 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 31 mi85 min S 21 G 27 45°F 4 ft1026.3 hPa (-1.5)35°F
44090 33 mi45 min 46°F2 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 41 mi81 min 46°F 41°F1026.9 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi75 min S 9.9 G 16 47°F 1026.6 hPa (-2.0)
FRXM3 42 mi81 min 47°F 38°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 44 mi90 min SSE 4.1 49°F 1028 hPa43°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 45 mi81 min W 2.9 G 2.9 37°F 43°F1026.7 hPa
PVDR1 45 mi75 min S 1.9 G 2.9 40°F 1026.8 hPa (-2.0)36°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 47 mi81 min 46°F 41°F1027.2 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA8 mi20 minSSW 9 G 1510.00 miFair45°F39°F81%1025.7 hPa
East Milton, MA20 mi24 minSSW 17 mi38°F34°F86%1026.1 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi21 minSSW 1210.00 miOvercast42°F34°F73%1025.2 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA20 mi23 minSSW 610.00 miFair43°F37°F80%1025.8 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA23 mi22 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F32°F73%1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGHG

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Scituate, Massachusetts
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Scituate
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:40 AM EST     1.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:02 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:51 AM EST     9.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:14 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:20 PM EST     8.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.42.61.31.123.45.37.28.79.18.57.15.33.31.50.50.823.65.67.38.38.17.1

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:39 AM EST     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:41 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:03 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:01 AM EST     1.14 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:35 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:00 PM EST     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:25 PM EST     1.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-1.1-0.60.30.91.11.10.90.4-0.2-0.6-1-1.1-1.2-1-0.20.711.110.6-0-0.5-0.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.