Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:41PM Sunday March 7, 2021 4:38 PM EST (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:40AMMoonset 12:38PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Monday afternoon...
Through early evening..East winds around 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots veering west 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots veering east late at night, then veering southeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots veering west 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet late in the day.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ844 Expires:202103080900;;625034 FZUS53 KGRR 072105 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-080900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, MI
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location: 42.23, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 072020 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 320 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

- Moderating temps, low RHs and Gusty winds next few days

- Several rounds of rain possible middle to end of the week period

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

- Moderating temps, low RHs and Gusty winds next few days

Strong warm air advection develops later tonight and more so on Monday as a low level jet moves in. Southwesterly gusts are likely to reach 30 mph as the mixing height increases during the day. Up north where there is still some snowpack . high temperatures are likely to reach the low 50s while further south some near 60 degree readings look possible given the 925 mb temps shown to rise into the 5 to 8 deg C range. It will mostly be dry air advection on Monday so very low RH values look likely to occur. The NAM is showing low clouds moving in Monday night into Tuesday . which could impact the temperatures somewhat. Other models are not being as aggressive as the NAM on this scenario.

Strong warm air advection resume Tuesday into Wednesday. The temp at 925 mb climbs several degrees each day with most locations expected to see High temps in the 60s by Wednesday. There is some uncertainty how deep we will mix Tuesday night into Wednesday. This low level jet will be stronger but due to increasing cloud cover . the mixing depth is shown to be lower. As a result there will likely be less wind on Wednesday as compared to Monday assuming less mixing.

- Several rounds of rain possible middle to end of the week period

Gulf moisture steadily streams in Tuesday into Wednesday with PWAT values forecasted to top an inch starting Wednesday. This is when a low level jet will be lifting through the region. Showers are looking increasingly likely through the day on Wednesday. A slow moving frontal zone moves in from the west Wednesday into Thursday and some models stalling it out for 24 hrs . not pushing the front through til Friday. The upper level diffluence increases Thursday as the trough pivots in from the west. That will likely help to keep the rain going or generate another round mainly for southern parts of the CWA. Some weakness in the stability is shown as well . so there may be a thunder risk as well.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1220 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

The relatively dry airmass in place will act to keep any cloud or fog conditions at VFR. A surge of stronger winds will arrive tonight . mainly just off the ground. As a result an increased risk for LLWS exists. For Monday the surface winds increase steadily in the morning and become rather gusty by noon. Values over 25 knots look possible from the southwest.

MARINE. Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

As one low level jet moves in tonight into Monday . the winds will be on the increase over the nearshore waters. South to southwesterly gusts are likely to top 25 knots and build the waves up to at least 4 feet. This will support the current small craft advisory that we have out.

Next later Tuesday night into Wednesday another low level jet surges in. Gusts are likely to top 30 knots and we may make a run at Gale conditions. One concern is how deep the mixing will be given the seasonably stable conditions over the lake. No watch at this time but it will be a consideration going forward.


GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . MJS DISCUSSION . MJS AVIATION . MJS MARINE . MJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 16 mi39 min 1 G 1.9 37°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 23 mi39 min N 5.1 G 7 35°F 1028.8 hPa (-3.7)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 38 mi51 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 32°F 34°F1028.6 hPa27°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 56 mi39 min N 5.1 G 6 40°F 27°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI12 mi44 minW 310.00 miFair42°F24°F47%1028.4 hPa
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi46 minS 610.00 miFair47°F20°F34%1029.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWA

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmCalmW7W6CalmS3W8
1 day agoNW10
G17
N10N9
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N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6NW7NW6NW4W8NW11
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2 days agoN10
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N5N4N5N4N4N3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W8W9NW8W7W9NW9NW13
G18

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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