Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
River Rouge, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:34PM Monday September 20, 2021 1:50 AM EDT (05:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:51PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0084.000000t0000z-210915t0115z/ 910 Pm Edt Tue Sep 14 2021
.the special marine warning will expire at 915 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 pm edt for southeastern michigan...the adjacent waters of lake erie...and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair. Lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4225 8318 4233 8312 4236 8304 4237 8292 4236 8293 4234 8296 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 0110z 269deg 30kt 4235 8277 4201 8296 4172 8352
LCZ423 Expires:202109150120;;632078 FZUS73 KDTX 150110 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 910 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 LCZ423-LEZ444-150120-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Rouge, MI
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location: 42.25, -83.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 200351 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1151 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

AVIATION.

Strong high pressure stretching from New England into the eastern Great Lakes will maintain mainly clear skies below 12k feet and light east-southeast winds through daybreak. This high will loosen its grip on Se Mi on Monday while the low level flow turns more southerly. This will transport the moisture plume now over the southern Ohio Valley into Se Mi during the course of the day. This will result in increasing clouds. Ceilings are expected to be primarily VFR, however there is a chance for some brief intervals of MVFR late in the day with the arrival of a better push in low level moisture. This moisture advection will also trigger some light showers.

For DTW . The increase in deep layer moisture during the course of the day Monday will increase the probabilities for sub 5000 foot cloud bases. Weak instability will limit the chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet Monday afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 343 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

DISCUSSION .

Western fringe of high pressure to hold across the cwa while a 588 mb ridge maintains in strength and intensity through this evening. The continued subsidence in a stable environment has resulted in clear skies through the morning and afternoon, with full insolation pushing temperatures into the upper 70s to lower 80s for a high. A typical diurnal dip in temperatures expected overnight despite mid and upper-level clouds starting to fill in, with lows dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Return flow from the departing high pressure and amplification of upper-level troughing across the continental northwest will bring about the start of what is projected to be an active week of weather across the Great Lakes region. Surface and low-level flow will hold south to south-west early Monday morning in response to the above, with the LLJ increasing in intensity between 30-40 knots around and after 15Z Monday. The result will be very efficient moisture transport of Gulf origin that quickly fills in across the Great Lakes through the day. PW values rise to or above 1.75 inches across southern Michigan by 18Z Monday. Will still need forcing to act upon the surplus of moisture which is generally limited on the synoptic scale through the day on Monday, but a PV feature across the Ohio Valley will shear out and weaken as it is drawn north over southern Michigan, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorm activity Monday afternoon through the evening. Only marginal CAPE to work with, to or below 500 J/kg with modest shear, thus strongly organized convection is not expected on Monday.

A increase in coverage/PoPs expected throughout Tuesday, eventually turning categorical later in the day. Amplification and eastward progression of the upper-level trough across the Plains will continue early Tuesday morning while a surface low over western Lake Superior draws northeast into Ontario. Southwest flow will hold in advance of the approaching trough with an uptick in isentropic ascent noted around 12Z across Southeast Michigan. Dew points to rise upper 60s in response to the added surface and low-level moisture with the chance for precipitation holding given the weaker forcing in the subtropical environment. A cold front to then pass through Tuesday afternoon/evening which will then bring categorical precipitation chances given the increasing frontogenetic forcing along the front and some influence from right entrance jet dynamics. The copious amounts of moisture in place along the frontal boundary could result in efficient rainfall production that could lead to localized flooding concerns and will be the main hazard with this system. WPC Day 3 excessive rainfall outlook places most of SE MI under a slight risk, further highlighting a flooding risk. 0-6 km bulk shear increases slightly ahead of the front partially in response to the uptick in mid-level wind field but CAPE remains modest again. Thus could envision isolated potential for strong to severe weather with the frontal passage mainly in the form of stronger wind gusts, with better chances over the southern half of the cwa.

A stark temperature difference will be felt after the passage of the front the following afternoons on Wednesday and Thursday with temperature highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Better convergence is now noted with long-range models where the aforementioned jet streak pulls into Quebec. Base of the trough is expected to turn into a closed low system around or just south of the Ohio Valley right around occlusion of the surface system, with an eventually northward draw of the low Thursday into Friday. This upper-level pattern is now seen across the GFS/ECMWF/CMC operation models and is also observed in the mean 500 mb pattern of the ensemble counterparts of the above models. A better chance for continued rain chances now exists after the frontal passage, Thursday into Friday, given the proximity to the closed low system. Most of the variance between ensembles is explained given the southwest-northeast positioning of the closed though, which will have implications on rainfall totals. Only a small subset of ensembles (~15%) keep the low well northeast of the Great Lakes, keeping bulk of the qpf just east of the cwa. That being the clear outlier, PoPs have been increase for the mid to late week period.

MARINE .

The western side of an area of high pressure now centered over New England will hold over the eastern lakes tonight into Monday. This will keep the local weather in check with light southerly winds and clear skies. A more active pattern will begin Monday through much of the upcoming week owning to a slow moving cold front passing over on Tuesday and then a cutoff low that will linger the rest of the week. A weak system will lift north Monday ahead of the front bringing a surge of warm and moist air to the region. The warm air will limit gust potential but wind speeds will still increase into the 15 to 20 knot range across much of Lake Huron. The cold front is forecast to move across Lake Huron Tuesday and into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms and the potential for some gusty post frontal northerly winds by Wednesday morning.

HYDROLOGY .

Passage of a strong cold front widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorm activity throughout the day on Tuesday. A near-tropical air mass in place will result in efficient rainfall production with shower and thunderstorm activity. While most of the heavier precipitation is expected with the frontal passage, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected at times before the front, throughout the day on Monday into Tuesday morning. Rainfall totals on Monday through the passage of the frontal boundary (roughly through 06Z Wednesday), will have the potential to range between 1-2 inches, with the higher amounts listed expected to line up south of the Tri-Cities and northern Thumb. Most of the activity is expected to fall with the frontal passage. Localized higher amounts greater than 2 inches will be possible with thunderstorm activity.

Additional rainfall is expected after the initial passage of the front as a low pressure system start to work north into the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Localized flooding and flash flooding concerns will be possible Tuesday into early Wednesday, especially across urban areas and for poor drainage areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SC DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . DRK HYDROLOGY . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi50 min ESE 9.9 G 12 70°F 1020.7 hPa (-0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 24 mi50 min ESE 12 G 14 69°F 70°F1 ft1019.6 hPa (-0.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 30 mi50 min ESE 12 G 13 74°F
AGCM4 38 mi56 min 62°F 70°F1020.2 hPa
45165 39 mi40 min ESE 9.7 G 12 74°F 73°F2 ft
TWCO1 40 mi40 min SE 12 G 15 73°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 44 mi50 min ESE 15 G 15 74°F 1019.2 hPa (-0.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi56 min E 8 G 13 72°F 1018.5 hPa66°F
CMPO1 49 mi80 min SSE 5.1 G 9.9 73°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI12 mi55 minE 310.00 miOvercast65°F61°F88%1019.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI13 mi57 minESE 410.00 miFair67°F62°F84%1019.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI14 mi57 minENE 410.00 miOvercast66°F60°F81%1019.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI21 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair66°F58°F76%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE6E6NE4CalmNE4NE5E6NE5SE3S6S8S9S10S8SE6SE4E5E3------CalmE3
1 day agoCalmCalmN4NE11
G17
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S6S5S3S4S6S8S8SE7SE8SE5SE5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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