Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Rouge, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 081103 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 703 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

AVIATION.

A broad area of high pressure extends from the TN and OH valleys across SE Michigan into southern Ontario to start the day. It drifts eastward just enough to allow a steadier S-SW wind by this afternoon while maintaining VFR in a mix of mid and high clouds. Higher humidity and instability remain well west of the SE MI terminal corridor and so ongoing thunderstorms are expected to dissipate before reaching the mbS area. High pressure remaining nearby to the east continues holding back the surge of humid air leaving VFR in place across the terminal corridor tonight into early Sunday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

DISCUSSION .

Heights will slowly rise through the day, slowed only by a compact shortwave and associated MCV rolling across the northern Great Lakes. The western periphery of the persistent surface ridge will linger over the region as well though it will continue its slow drift to the east. The location of the ridge now allows for the return of southwesterly flow though the overall flow throughout the column remains weak. It should be enough when combined with the building heights and steadily moderating airmass to allow highs today to reach the mid 80s. Mid level moisture will be on the rise today but surface moisture will lag behind tonight, so heat indices will still be held in check this afternoon.

The bulk of the convective activity today is expected to stay to the north but this shortwave will begin to pull the deeper moisture and leading gradient of higher theta e across lower MI. PWATs will just to over an inch but we will largely remain capped with shrinking, but still steep low level inversion in place. Low level jet and better instability will be held well to the west over WI so expectations are for a dry forecast through the day. A boundary looks to then get draped across Mid MI overnight with instability continue to fold over into the state and CAMS all try to hint at some isolated to scattered showers/storms popping up through that area tonight. Though there is no strong signal for a forcing mechanism to utilize this instability, there is a good chance with this pattern there will be some convectively induced nocturnal wave. Will keep the slight chance or low chance mention in to highlight the area.

Main trough/cold front will still be to the west on Sunday with southwesterly flow increasing and ramping up the warm advection into the region. Depending on degree of clouds cover, we could make a run at 90 degrees. Heat indices will be on the rise as well as surface dewpoints will climb to around 70F after being in the mid 60s overnight. As the instability continues to rise with the trough pushing east, could see some diurnally forced convection Sunday afternoon. Soundings still show some capping to deal with but more numerous boundaries likely in the area, peak heating, and low level jet creeping into Mid MI, we could start seeing activity during the day.

GReater chances of convection will come Sunday night and Monday as several shortwaves tracking through Ontario force the instability axis and low level jet across lower MI. Several larger scale forcing mechanisms will work through the area with a developing warm front and stronger cold front, low level jet, possible nocturnal complexes, etc . so were likely at some point to see storms Sunday night through Monday and some may see multiple rounds. Though CAPE will be more than adequate, shear looks to remain below 20 knots limited organization of the storms and PWATS approaching 2 inches means storms will offer heavy rainfall.

Activity will try to push south of the area by mid week as outflows force the instability axis to the south with westerly flow not allowing much northward progress back into the area. High pressure will also attempt to build south out of Canada helping to keep it south. Overall temps should linger in the 80s the westerly flow keep mild air advecting into the area.

MARINE .

Broad high pressure stretched across the central Great Lakes will continue to promote dry weather and favorable boating conditions through at least the first half of the weekend with light waves and light south to southwesterly flow. The high pressure influence will begin to weaken late Saturday into Saturday night as an increasingly warm and humid airmass lifts northward across the region and an upper-level disturbance approaches from the upper Midwest. This feature, and accompanying developing warm front, will promote an increasing potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the local waters, especially Sunday night and into Monday as a cold front crosses the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	18 mi	49 min	WSW 6 G 7	66°F			1022.4 hPa (+0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair	24 mi	109 min	W 7.8 G 7.8		74°F		1020.2 hPa (+0.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	30 mi	59 min	W 8 G 8.9	70°F
AGCM4	38 mi	49 min		61°F	74°F		1021.8 hPa (+0.0)
45165	39 mi	29 min	WNW 5.8 G 5.8	70°F	76°F	1 ft		59°F
TWCO1	40 mi	19 min	W 7 G 8.9	69°F	76°F			61°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	44 mi	49 min	WNW 4.1 G 6	62°F			1021.3 hPa (+0.0)	54°F
CMPO1	49 mi	79 min	WSW 5.1	59°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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9 AM

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N4

N2 G5

N2 G6

NE4

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NE5 G8

E6 G10

E6 G10

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E4 G7

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SW2 G5

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1 day ago

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NE3 G7

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S3 G6

S3 G6

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	12 mi	54 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	62°F	55°F	81%	1022.3 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	13 mi	56 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	62°F	57°F	84%	1022.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	14 mi	56 min	N 0	9.00 mi	A Few Clouds	63°F	55°F	76%	1022.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	21 mi	54 min	W 4	10.00 mi	Fair	65°F	56°F	74%	1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)

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NE3

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1 day ago

N3

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NW4

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Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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