Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
River Rouge, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 5:41PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 8:57 PM EST (01:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:05AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0066.000000t0000z-191230t1215z/ 714 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 715 am est... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The wind shift has moved out of the warned area. Lat...lon 4173 8349 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4223 8319 4234 8310 4237 8299 4235 8294 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1214z 232deg 43kt 4292 8284 4267 8247 4234 8204
LCZ423 Expires:201912301224;;155656 FZUS73 KDTX 301214 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 714 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ423-LEZ444-301224-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Rouge, MI
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location: 42.25, -83.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 282301 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 601 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

AVIATION.

Weak subsidence overnight will result in a subtle lowering of the inversion. This along with slight boundary layer cooling will support some degree of lowering clouds overnight. Rap soundings with the support of recent trends across the thumb suggest ceilings at PTK/FNT/MBS may drop just below 2k feet overnight. The weak gradient will generally keep sfc winds at or below 6 knots as they veer from the NNW to the NE tonight.

For DTW . A little bit of divergent low level flow and late afternoon diurnal heating as lifted some of the cloud bases just above 3k feet. Nocturnal boundary layer cooling this evening should support a more sustained MVFR based ceiling. The probabilities for cigs to drop below 2k feet are lower within the lower elevation at metro in comparison to PTK and locals to the north.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight and Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 415 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

DISCUSSION .

Persistent low-level cloudiness will continue into the evening and overnight hours as a stubborn inversion intersecting the 800 mb level shows no signs of breaking down. This is largely due to the lack of a mechanism facilitating thermal modification as the 850-700 mb layer mean temperature advection rates are locked within a narrow range from about -1.5 to 2.0 C/12hr over the next couple days allowing 850 mb temperatures to hover near -8 C at bottom of the inversion layer. As noted in previous discussions, moisture content will remain elevated beneath this layer supporting the possibility for light flurries with maybe some drizzle mixing in. The main forcing to support this is tied to a relatively low amplitude mid- level shortwave trough being nudged onshore north of Grand Rapids ahead of the inbound ridge. Weak vorticity with this wave that is already apparent in GOES-E visible imagery warrants the inclusion of low-end PoPs for this evening and early tonight. Weak dBZ returns are noted on both KDTX and TDTW radars over the southwestern counties, but there are currently no obs to suggest any precip is reaching the ground at this time. This isn't too surprising given dewpoint depressions have risen to between 7 F and 10 F at the surface. Even once saturation extends down to the surface, no measurable accumulation will occur due to low precip rates given the lighter nature. Temperatures spread will be a smidge larger tonight as afternoon highs in the mid 30s should fall into the mid-upper 20s overnight.

By Wednesday morning, the upper level ridge axis will be in place over the Great Lakes. Weak winds will veer easterly by daybreak as Canadian high pressure drifts south a bit. Subsidence is fairly week as 18Z forecast soundings on Wednesday show limited variation from 18Z today except a slight decrease in column moisture as PWATs will drop below 0.20 inches during the afternoon. Sub-inversion stratus also continues, but conditions will be less favorable for drizzle or flurries given the lack of dynamic support. As it stands with this update, a dry forecast will be carried from Wednesday into Thursday night with highs in the low-mid 30s and overnight lows in the low- mid 20s.

More active pattern is more likely this weekend, although medium- range guidance is not fully in-sync yet. Friday should be fairly dry, but slight chance PoPs are included owing to the arrival of several shortwaves with some evidence of upper level cyclonic circulations. Main precip will arrive as a longwave feature intersects with a southern stream jet over the Mississippi. Current analysis points to snow showers on Saturday and Sunday on the north side of the surface low that tracks through the Ohio Valley. High degree of uncertainty remains with this setup. Warmer southwest flow arrives behind the wave allowing for temps to rise into the 40s or perhaps 50F along the MI/OH border by Monday.

MARINE .

Light northwest flow of 10 to 15 knots this afternoon will veer to the northeast tonight and continue through the day on Wednesday as high pressure drops south from James Bay. Even with the onshore flow, waves should remain below 4 feet.

Light and variable winds on Thursday will become light southwest on Friday as a weak cold front passes through on Saturday. Stronger southwest winds (20+ knots) appear possible early next week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SC DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi57 min N 8 G 9.9 30°F 1019.6 hPa (+1.7)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 30 mi57 min W 6 G 7 33°F
AGCM4 38 mi63 min 29°F 35°F1018.6 hPa
TWCO1 40 mi37 min WNW 8 G 9.9
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 44 mi57 min WNW 6 G 6 33°F 1019.5 hPa (+1.7)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi63 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 33°F 1019 hPa27°F
CMPO1 49 mi87 min Calm G 1.9

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI12 mi62 minNW 510.00 miOvercast33°F25°F72%1018.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI13 mi64 minNE 610.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1019.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI14 mi64 minNW 410.00 miOvercast33°F25°F72%1019.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI21 mi62 minN 010.00 miOvercast32°F26°F79%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W4W4W4W6W5NW8NW6NW4W3CalmW4W5NW4NW4NW7NW8NW6NW5N5CalmNW3NW4NW3
1 day agoW7W5W6W6W4W6W4W5NW7NW6NW7NW5NW5NW5NW6NW6NW7NW8NW8NW6NW6NW4W5W3
2 days agoSW5SW7W6W8W8W9W9W9W9W7SW7W8W8W7W11SW10
G16
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W9W8W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.