Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
River Rouge, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:43PM Saturday August 8, 2020 7:49 AM EDT (11:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:27PMMoonset 10:19AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0029.000000t0000z-200729t2015z/ 407 Pm Edt Wed Jul 29 2020
.the special marine warning will expire at 415 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4197 8326 4226 8317 4229 8314 4229 8310 4226 8311 4224 8313 4217 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 time...mot...loc 2007z 289deg 26kt 4207 8283
LCZ423 Expires:202007292017;;621224 FZUS73 KDTX 292007 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 407 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-292017-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Rouge, MI
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location: 42.25, -83.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 081103 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 703 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

AVIATION.

A broad area of high pressure extends from the TN and OH valleys across SE Michigan into southern Ontario to start the day. It drifts eastward just enough to allow a steadier S-SW wind by this afternoon while maintaining VFR in a mix of mid and high clouds. Higher humidity and instability remain well west of the SE MI terminal corridor and so ongoing thunderstorms are expected to dissipate before reaching the mbS area. High pressure remaining nearby to the east continues holding back the surge of humid air leaving VFR in place across the terminal corridor tonight into early Sunday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

DISCUSSION .

Heights will slowly rise through the day, slowed only by a compact shortwave and associated MCV rolling across the northern Great Lakes. The western periphery of the persistent surface ridge will linger over the region as well though it will continue its slow drift to the east. The location of the ridge now allows for the return of southwesterly flow though the overall flow throughout the column remains weak. It should be enough when combined with the building heights and steadily moderating airmass to allow highs today to reach the mid 80s. Mid level moisture will be on the rise today but surface moisture will lag behind tonight, so heat indices will still be held in check this afternoon.

The bulk of the convective activity today is expected to stay to the north but this shortwave will begin to pull the deeper moisture and leading gradient of higher theta e across lower MI. PWATs will just to over an inch but we will largely remain capped with shrinking, but still steep low level inversion in place. Low level jet and better instability will be held well to the west over WI so expectations are for a dry forecast through the day. A boundary looks to then get draped across Mid MI overnight with instability continue to fold over into the state and CAMS all try to hint at some isolated to scattered showers/storms popping up through that area tonight. Though there is no strong signal for a forcing mechanism to utilize this instability, there is a good chance with this pattern there will be some convectively induced nocturnal wave. Will keep the slight chance or low chance mention in to highlight the area.

Main trough/cold front will still be to the west on Sunday with southwesterly flow increasing and ramping up the warm advection into the region. Depending on degree of clouds cover, we could make a run at 90 degrees. Heat indices will be on the rise as well as surface dewpoints will climb to around 70F after being in the mid 60s overnight. As the instability continues to rise with the trough pushing east, could see some diurnally forced convection Sunday afternoon. Soundings still show some capping to deal with but more numerous boundaries likely in the area, peak heating, and low level jet creeping into Mid MI, we could start seeing activity during the day.

GReater chances of convection will come Sunday night and Monday as several shortwaves tracking through Ontario force the instability axis and low level jet across lower MI. Several larger scale forcing mechanisms will work through the area with a developing warm front and stronger cold front, low level jet, possible nocturnal complexes, etc . so were likely at some point to see storms Sunday night through Monday and some may see multiple rounds. Though CAPE will be more than adequate, shear looks to remain below 20 knots limited organization of the storms and PWATS approaching 2 inches means storms will offer heavy rainfall.

Activity will try to push south of the area by mid week as outflows force the instability axis to the south with westerly flow not allowing much northward progress back into the area. High pressure will also attempt to build south out of Canada helping to keep it south. Overall temps should linger in the 80s the westerly flow keep mild air advecting into the area.

MARINE .

Broad high pressure stretched across the central Great Lakes will continue to promote dry weather and favorable boating conditions through at least the first half of the weekend with light waves and light south to southwesterly flow. The high pressure influence will begin to weaken late Saturday into Saturday night as an increasingly warm and humid airmass lifts northward across the region and an upper-level disturbance approaches from the upper Midwest. This feature, and accompanying developing warm front, will promote an increasing potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the local waters, especially Sunday night and into Monday as a cold front crosses the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi49 min WSW 6 G 7 66°F 1022.4 hPa (+0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 24 mi109 min W 7.8 G 7.8 74°F1020.2 hPa (+0.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 30 mi59 min W 8 G 8.9 70°F
AGCM4 38 mi49 min 61°F 74°F1021.8 hPa (+0.0)
45165 39 mi29 min WNW 5.8 G 5.8 70°F 76°F1 ft59°F
TWCO1 40 mi19 min W 7 G 8.9 69°F 76°F61°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi49 min WNW 4.1 G 6 62°F 1021.3 hPa (+0.0)54°F
CMPO1 49 mi79 min WSW 5.1 59°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI12 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair62°F55°F81%1022.3 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI13 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair62°F57°F84%1022.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI14 mi56 minN 09.00 miA Few Clouds63°F55°F76%1022.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI21 mi54 minW 410.00 miFair65°F56°F74%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE5N3NE7NE7E6NE7E4S8S7S6S6S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN3NE4NE5NE5E6E3NE8E5E4CalmCalmNE4NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4CalmN4
2 days agoN6N5N6CalmCalmS4S7S7S6S8S7S7SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.