Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Rouge, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 200351 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1151 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

AVIATION.

Strong high pressure stretching from New England into the eastern Great Lakes will maintain mainly clear skies below 12k feet and light east-southeast winds through daybreak. This high will loosen its grip on Se Mi on Monday while the low level flow turns more southerly. This will transport the moisture plume now over the southern Ohio Valley into Se Mi during the course of the day. This will result in increasing clouds. Ceilings are expected to be primarily VFR, however there is a chance for some brief intervals of MVFR late in the day with the arrival of a better push in low level moisture. This moisture advection will also trigger some light showers.

For DTW . The increase in deep layer moisture during the course of the day Monday will increase the probabilities for sub 5000 foot cloud bases. Weak instability will limit the chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet Monday afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 343 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

DISCUSSION .

Western fringe of high pressure to hold across the cwa while a 588 mb ridge maintains in strength and intensity through this evening. The continued subsidence in a stable environment has resulted in clear skies through the morning and afternoon, with full insolation pushing temperatures into the upper 70s to lower 80s for a high. A typical diurnal dip in temperatures expected overnight despite mid and upper-level clouds starting to fill in, with lows dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Return flow from the departing high pressure and amplification of upper-level troughing across the continental northwest will bring about the start of what is projected to be an active week of weather across the Great Lakes region. Surface and low-level flow will hold south to south-west early Monday morning in response to the above, with the LLJ increasing in intensity between 30-40 knots around and after 15Z Monday. The result will be very efficient moisture transport of Gulf origin that quickly fills in across the Great Lakes through the day. PW values rise to or above 1.75 inches across southern Michigan by 18Z Monday. Will still need forcing to act upon the surplus of moisture which is generally limited on the synoptic scale through the day on Monday, but a PV feature across the Ohio Valley will shear out and weaken as it is drawn north over southern Michigan, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorm activity Monday afternoon through the evening. Only marginal CAPE to work with, to or below 500 J/kg with modest shear, thus strongly organized convection is not expected on Monday.

A increase in coverage/PoPs expected throughout Tuesday, eventually turning categorical later in the day. Amplification and eastward progression of the upper-level trough across the Plains will continue early Tuesday morning while a surface low over western Lake Superior draws northeast into Ontario. Southwest flow will hold in advance of the approaching trough with an uptick in isentropic ascent noted around 12Z across Southeast Michigan. Dew points to rise upper 60s in response to the added surface and low-level moisture with the chance for precipitation holding given the weaker forcing in the subtropical environment. A cold front to then pass through Tuesday afternoon/evening which will then bring categorical precipitation chances given the increasing frontogenetic forcing along the front and some influence from right entrance jet dynamics. The copious amounts of moisture in place along the frontal boundary could result in efficient rainfall production that could lead to localized flooding concerns and will be the main hazard with this system. WPC Day 3 excessive rainfall outlook places most of SE MI under a slight risk, further highlighting a flooding risk. 0-6 km bulk shear increases slightly ahead of the front partially in response to the uptick in mid-level wind field but CAPE remains modest again. Thus could envision isolated potential for strong to severe weather with the frontal passage mainly in the form of stronger wind gusts, with better chances over the southern half of the cwa.

A stark temperature difference will be felt after the passage of the front the following afternoons on Wednesday and Thursday with temperature highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Better convergence is now noted with long-range models where the aforementioned jet streak pulls into Quebec. Base of the trough is expected to turn into a closed low system around or just south of the Ohio Valley right around occlusion of the surface system, with an eventually northward draw of the low Thursday into Friday. This upper-level pattern is now seen across the GFS/ECMWF/CMC operation models and is also observed in the mean 500 mb pattern of the ensemble counterparts of the above models. A better chance for continued rain chances now exists after the frontal passage, Thursday into Friday, given the proximity to the closed low system. Most of the variance between ensembles is explained given the southwest-northeast positioning of the closed though, which will have implications on rainfall totals. Only a small subset of ensembles (~15%) keep the low well northeast of the Great Lakes, keeping bulk of the qpf just east of the cwa. That being the clear outlier, PoPs have been increase for the mid to late week period.

MARINE .

The western side of an area of high pressure now centered over New England will hold over the eastern lakes tonight into Monday. This will keep the local weather in check with light southerly winds and clear skies. A more active pattern will begin Monday through much of the upcoming week owning to a slow moving cold front passing over on Tuesday and then a cutoff low that will linger the rest of the week. A weak system will lift north Monday ahead of the front bringing a surge of warm and moist air to the region. The warm air will limit gust potential but wind speeds will still increase into the 15 to 20 knot range across much of Lake Huron. The cold front is forecast to move across Lake Huron Tuesday and into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms and the potential for some gusty post frontal northerly winds by Wednesday morning.

HYDROLOGY .

Passage of a strong cold front widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorm activity throughout the day on Tuesday. A near-tropical air mass in place will result in efficient rainfall production with shower and thunderstorm activity. While most of the heavier precipitation is expected with the frontal passage, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected at times before the front, throughout the day on Monday into Tuesday morning. Rainfall totals on Monday through the passage of the frontal boundary (roughly through 06Z Wednesday), will have the potential to range between 1-2 inches, with the higher amounts listed expected to line up south of the Tri-Cities and northern Thumb. Most of the activity is expected to fall with the frontal passage. Localized higher amounts greater than 2 inches will be possible with thunderstorm activity.

Additional rainfall is expected after the initial passage of the front as a low pressure system start to work north into the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Localized flooding and flash flooding concerns will be possible Tuesday into early Wednesday, especially across urban areas and for poor drainage areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SC DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . DRK HYDROLOGY . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	18 mi	50 min	ESE 9.9 G 12	70°F			1020.7 hPa (-0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair	24 mi	50 min	ESE 12 G 14	69°F	70°F	1 ft	1019.6 hPa (-0.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	30 mi	50 min	ESE 12 G 13	74°F
AGCM4	38 mi	56 min		62°F	70°F		1020.2 hPa
45165	39 mi	40 min	ESE 9.7 G 12	74°F	73°F	2 ft
TWCO1	40 mi	40 min	SE 12 G 15		73°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH	44 mi	50 min	ESE 15 G 15	74°F			1019.2 hPa (-0.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	44 mi	56 min	E 8 G 13	72°F			1018.5 hPa	66°F
CMPO1	49 mi	80 min	SSE 5.1 G 9.9	73°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

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5 PM

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Last 24hr

E8 G11

E8 G12

E8

E6

E1 G4

N1

N3

NW1

E9 G12

E11

E9 G12

E9 G13

E12

E11 G15

E14

E15

E12 G16

E9 G14

E13 G16

E9 G14

E11 G15

E7 G11

E6

E7 G11

1 day ago

W2

W3

NW4

N5

N3 G6

NE9 G15

NE9 G14

NE7 G13

NE8 G12

NE5 G9

NE4 G8

NE4 G7

NE5

NE8 G11

E8

E8

NE6

E11 G14

E10 G13

NE11 G15

NE10

NE9 G14

NE8 G13

E9 G12

2 days ago

SW4

S4

S5

S4

SW4 G7

SW4

S5

SW2 G6

S1 G4

SW6

SW3 G9

SW5 G9

SW6 G10

SE5

SE8

E3

SE5 G8

S3

SW3

W1

W1

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	12 mi	55 min	E 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	65°F	61°F	88%	1019.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	13 mi	57 min	ESE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	67°F	62°F	84%	1019.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	14 mi	57 min	ENE 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	66°F	60°F	81%	1019.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	21 mi	55 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	66°F	58°F	76%	1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)

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1 PM

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Last 24hr

NE6

NE6

E6

NE4

Calm

NE4

NE5

E6

NE5

SE3

S6

S8

S9

S10

S8

SE6

SE4

E5

E3

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Calm

E3

1 day ago

Calm

Calm

N4

NE11 G17

NE8

N6

N7

N7

N7

NE10 G15

NE7

NE10

NE5

NE6

NE7

NE8

NE9

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NE10 G14

NE8

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NE6

2 days ago

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

S4

S5

S6

S5

S3

S4

S6

S8

S8

SE7

SE8

SE5

SE5

Calm

SW3

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

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